Known prior to 1983 as Wilmot, Lyons covers what’s left over of Tasmania after the north-west coast (Braddon), north-east coast (Bass), central Hobart (Denison) and Hobart’s outskirts (Franklin) are ordered into natural communities of interest. It thus includes small towns on either side of Tasmania’s pronounced north-south divide, including New Norfolk outside Hobart and the southern outskirts of Launceston, along with fishing towns and tourist centres on the east coast and rural territory in between, together with a short stretch of the northern coast between Braddon and Bass at Port Sorell. According to the 2011 census, Lyons has the lowest proportion of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, along with the second lowest proportion of people who finished high school and the sixth lowest median family income. The Liberals gained the seat in 2013 on the back of the election’s biggest swing, which converted an existing Labor margin of 11.9% into a Liberal margin of 1.2%.
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| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Wilmot was in conservative hands from 1901 to 1929, when it was won for Labor by the man whose name it now bears. Joseph Lyons had been Tasmania’s Premier until the defeat of his minority government in 1928, and upon entering federal parliament he assumed the position of Postmaster-General in the newly elected government of Jim Scullin. However, Lyons and his followers split from Labor in 1931 after a dispute over economic policy in response to the Depression. Joining with the opposition to become the leader of the new conservative United Australia Party, Lyons became Prime Minister after a landslide win at the election held the following December, retaining the position through two further election victories until his death in 1939.
Labor briefly resumed its hold on Wilmot after the by-election that followed Lyons’ death, but Allan Guy recovered it for the United Australia Party at the general election of 1940. It next changed hands at the 1946 election when Labor’s Gil Duthie unseated Guy against the trend of a national swing to the newly formed Liberal Party. Duthie went on to hold the seat for nearly three decades, until all five Tasmanian seats went from Labor to Liberal in 1975. The 9.9% swing that delivered the seat to Max Burr in 1975 was cemented by an 8.0% swing at the next election in 1977, and the Franklin dam issue ensured the entire state remained on side with the Liberals in 1983 and 1984. The realignment when Burr retired at the 1993 election, when the loss of Burr’s personal vote combined with the statewide backlash against John Hewson’s proposed goods and services tax delivered a decisive 5.6% swing to Labor.
Labor’s member for the next two decades was Dick Adams, a former state government minister who had lost his seat in 1982. Adams survived a swing in 1996 before piling 9.3% on to his margin in 1998, enough of a buffer to survive a small swing in 2001 and a large one in 2004, as northern Tasmania reacted against Labor forestry policies which Adams had bitterly opposed. Strong successive performances in 2007 and 2010 left Adams with what appeared to be a secure buffer, but this proved illusory in the face of a swing in 2013 that reached double figures in all but a handful of the electorate’s booths, and in several cases topped 20%. The victorious Liberal candidate was Eric Hutchinson, a wool marketer with Tasmanian agribusiness company Roberts Limited, who had also run in 2010.
Rex Douglas
In light of Windsor’s tweets today, I am reserving judgment 🙂
citizen
If my mum had known that package from Centrelink contained a message from Abbott, she would’ve told the postie it was porn, so as not to be embarrassed. 👿 😆
Another piece of rubbish
from the Guardian this time… The “opinion ” shifts sides with each alternating paragraph ( almost ), talk about confusing.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/13/coalition-confident-carbon-tax-repeal-is-finally-secure-under-pup-deal
“Coalition to call Clive Palmer’s bluff on carbon tax repeal
Abbott government confident PUP deal is secure but warns voters will hold crossbenchers to account for further delays”
deblonay
Racist attitudes are present on both sides of the conflict. This isn’t news.
____about the Oz
Like many I have long ago ceased to buy the Oz,(though areas like literary stuff and book reviews are good)but when I have a chance to read it somewhere.,… I am still surprised at the endless”campaigns” it conducts…all to followMurdoch’s line” I must say.
.and the predictibility of the line with people like Albrectson and Sheriden….Albrectson sounds like a echo of Abbott . and Sheriden…His stuff could be a Pentagon handout .he’s a big supporters of bombing anyone who doesn’t toe the US Empire’s Line
BTW \He was .like Abbott, a great admirer of Sanatmaria and makes no bones about that…
victoria
Mr Windsor’s departure from parliament is a massive loss.
Is Windsor actually advising Palmer, or was that just a twitter rumour?
fess
[Tony Windsor still in the game
Clive Palmer has not just been meeting with Al Gore in recent weeks, he has also been in heavy consultation with retired “country independent” Tony Windsor, one of the architects of the climate and clean energy policies that Abbott is seeking to tear down, and – like Palmer – a former conservative appalled at the lurch to the right by the current Coalition. Windsor, it is said, has been lunching with Palmer regularly to word him up on water issues, as well as climate and clean energy.]
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/5-things-to-know-about-new-senate-and-clean-energy-73403
deblonay
Mr Murdoch acts as a prophet.
He is the leader of what is effectively a cult.
@AntonyGreenABC: The impact of NSW and WA redistributions on possible double dissolution timetables. http://t.co/3LFRqnDCSo #auspol
It seems Greg Hunt is negotiating amendment he hopes will suit the PUPs, making sure Family First and Liberal Democrats are onside.
From my understanding no PUP Member, Senators or staff are involved in discussions this weekend. PUP Senators will meet on Monday AM to discuss the Government’s amendments.
So who is he in fact negotiating with? The BCA, IPA …
From media accounts Hunt has been negotiating with PUP senators, not Palmer himself. So either he has been involved quietly behind the scenes or he intends to make a dramatic intervention just before parliament meets tomorrow.
There is no way Palmer would allow PUP senators to agree to something that he himself did not agree with.
So in the absence of a public statement by Palmer, we must assume that Hunt’s optimism about a deal could either be well based or it could be tears for him tomorrow.
Oh almost forgot.
It seems the Galaxy that asked State questions about voting intention, then Federal questions about Clive will be out tomorrow.
Thanks victoria.
if Galaxy is out tomorrow then does that mean we get Newspoll tonight?
Seems Hunt is wise to insert the work “hope”.
[The PUP leader, Clive Palmer, told Guardian Australia that he was on holidays and “oblivious” to any deal, the PUP senators are not scheduled to meet to consider any changes until Monday morning, and four other Senate crossbenchers refuse to guarantee their vote until they see the final form of the agreement.]
[if Galaxy is out tomorrow then does that mean we get Newspoll tonight?]
Its a Qld State Galaxy robopoll in the Curious Snail.
Watched the Bill Shorten interview on todays Insiders show.
Thought it came off as overly rehearsed and staged – not natural at all.
Rex Douglas@818
How do you rehearse if you don’t know what the questions will be?
I think he did very well. I am impressed by the fact he continues to improve and is obviously making efforts in this respect and they are yielding results.
[Thought it came off as overly rehearsed and staged – not natural at all.]
So he did really well then? 😛
confessions
Sorry I have been away for a bit but yes Gough does look pretty good.
Oh that we had that sort of calibre in the Parliament today.
The three in that photo have convictions sadly that is something missing in a lot of Politicians today.
Re Debonlay @799: some countries have a central authority that rules on the language, e.g. the Academe Francais, but there is no such authority for English, not in the UK nor as far as I know any country that uses English. It is basically a matter of convention, usage, what is taught in schools, etc.
ru
Yep Shorten did very well today
What did you want him to do, Rex, stand up and chuck a brown-eye at the camera? Perhaps if he called Fran a witch, or said Palmer had wiped the shit-eating grin off Abbott’s face that would have satisfied you?
That’s Abbott territory, not Shorten’s style.
And, most importantly, it’s working out there in Punter Land.
citizen @ 797
I hope the postie didn’t think it was porn.
Porn or Corn ?
Essendon are whipping the Pies.
This week in the footy tipping I’ve crashed and burned. 🙁
Just listened to the Shorten interview on Insiders. His voice sounded to me like he was on the tail end of a cold. Otherwise he gave a good interview, IMHO.
I think a lot of voters would happily live with a little less frisson from their politicians, after the last few years. The times may suit Shorten.
BB
I’m inclined to think there’s a very anti-Abbott sentiment in the community which is helping the ALPs polling.
If Bill Shortens delivery was more naturally engaging I’m sure his personal ratings will climb.
Im inclined to agree that Shorten just looking sane and moderate might be enough, but he’d be a lot safer if he also de-hacked a bit. He needs to make some de-hacking moves. More democracy in the party etc.
Participating in and keeping Rudd’s new leadershit rules was good, but he needs to initiate a couple too. Champion it.
The punters seem to like it.
[So in the absence of a public statement by Palmer, we must assume that Hunt’s optimism about a deal could either be well based or it could be tears for him tomorrow.]
It’s an old political trick to falsely induce an expectation in the minds of the public and then to blame the other side for welching on the deal when it doesn’t happen.
The Media have been falling for this for years with Abbott’s promises, threats and dire warnings.
We were going to have plebiscites, tens of thousands of marchers on the lawns outside Parliament, No Confidence motions… and then there’s the weekly threat to hold a D/D if Tony doesn’t get his way.
We had Unity Tickets on everything, promises of No Change to just about any institution you care to name, the Grown Ups were going to be in charge again etc. etc.
The Media swallowed it all, and are still viewing politics through this prism.
Hence, it must be Palmer who’s rushing things, causing trouble, throwing a spanner in the works, playing game and so on. No consideration is being given to the obvious fact that Abbott is running cheap stunts to get his Carbon Tax repeal prize before the punters so he can gloat on a pre-arranged schedule.
Now Hunt is ramping it up, transforming his “diplomatic” efforts into warnings of dark things yet to come if Palmer doesn’t cave in. Geez, if the past week has been “diplomacy”, I’d hate to see what “going the biff” looks like.
Meanwhile, Murdoch The Persuader, clearly at Abbott’s request, is running a contemporaneous shit-sheet campaign against Palmer.
Does anyone think Palmer doesn’t realize this?
Abbott made the mistake AGAIN today of declaring that the Carbon Tax would be repealed by Monday. This is before anyone at all, outside Abbott’s inner circle and a few “business” brains, has had the chance to see those amendments, which amount to 300 pages of text.
He’s had a week of panic and argey-bargey, and his solution to the complete schemozzle he’s created is… more argey-bargey and more panic.
Gee… that’ll work.
[775
confessions
Keating, Faulkner and Whitlam]
Excellent!
BB
[Meanwhile, Murdoch The Persuader, clearly at Abbott’s request, is running a contemporaneous shit-sheet campaign against Palmer.]
And Palmer knows they wont stop until they damage Palmer
[If Bill Shortens delivery was more naturally engaging I’m sure his personal ratings will climb.]
We’ve had 7 years of “personally engaging” Rex, and where has that gotten Labor?
Your expectations are completely unrealistic. Shorten is already preferred-PM, has a higher nett rating than Abbott, and his party is streets ahead in the polls.
Seems to me he’s doing a pretty good job just being a “normal person” in the chaos around him.
Steve777@822
The largest English speaking population is now in India!
Perhaps the Indians should claim ownership and clean it up? 😛
[And Palmer knows they wont stop until they damage Palmer]
They won’t stop until they stop.
And Abbott can call off the dogs at will. One phone call will do it.
If he won’t do it, all he can expect from Palmer is grief, every single day.
Palmer is one of that most feared of political animals: he’s rich enough and smart enough to brush off just about anything they can throw at him.
BB
You’re probably right.
Expecting honest, naturally engaging politicians is unrealistic.
[783
deblonay
I rather agree with Fran and Just Me that we could abandon the use of them]
Not important, but that is not my position. I am ambivalent about them. They certainly help clarity, but they also are clearly not well understood by many, including native speakers, which argues for spelling reform, which I am in favour of.
We need to ditch inconsistent and non-phonetical spellings.
BB
Can you see Hedley Thomas being called off to get Palmer?
@IanCobain: Here it is: the document showing the UK Foreign Office has something to hide over #rendition flights to Diego Garcia http://t.co/LLggusifIV
May I present my local ALP candidate for the State Election, Jennifer Yang. https://www.facebook.com/Jen4MW
We lost Mt Waverley at the last State Election and have high hopes of winning it back this time. We are being rendered great assistance by the present inept incumbent, Michael Gidley.
Jennifer is already out working all the railway stations in the electorate each freezing cold morning and will make a great local member. But more than that, she is a very smart lady and has Ministerial potential.
GO JENNIFER!
Hunt seems to be saying he expects the CT to be gone, “by the end of the week”. Despite Abbott telling the faithful it will be gone on Monday.
I wonder what Greg knows that Tony doesn’t.
Vic
Savva on Insiders said something along the lines that “Hedley” is the only journo brave or resolute or talented enough (one of these sentiment, but lauding Thomas) to go after Palmer.
[Can you see Hedley Thomas being called off to get Palmer?]
He does as he is told, just like the rest of the Murdoch gofers.
He can’t ublish the story without a newspaper, and if Abbott asks Murdoch to lay off, Murdoch will convey that to his editors, who in turn will gag their reporters, if necessary.
Hedley Thomas has just switched from Julia Gillard to Clive Palmer, its all innuendo and half truths, he should have stayed retired.
BB
The rabble are going overboard to create an impression that it’s situation normal, all’s going well, just a few minor details to clean up.
Like Tunbull on Insiders clip parrotting verbatim what Abbott said about all’s well, straight from the Creddo talk sheet.
Like an obviously pissed person really concentrating to show the cops he can really walk a straight line. Or the drunk driver driving at 40k on the freeway in an effort to show clearly to any passing highway patrol that he’s a real safe driver. But the cops know exactly what’s goin on.
Rua
Not sure Thomas was ever retired
Sad thing for him is that he did good work on the Haneef Mohammed story and then the wivenhoe dam stuff up and is now reduced to muck raking.
Thing about Palmer is he isn’t a career politician, doesn’t live in fear, will die rich, has lived at highest levels of business and society so isn’t intimated easily.
Has the money to fight back against media wankas, govt wankas in the courts….
I doubt he worries too much about reputation, though would love to cause a lot of suffering to a bunch arseholes aka murdoch wankatariate and their stable of politicians like Newman, Abbott etc….
[Not sure Thomas was ever retired]
He did saying his heart was not in investigative journalism anymore, this was after Jayant Patel (remember the guy who was awarded a mistrial by the HC).
He was enticed back by the Dam inquiry, which he caused to hold extra sittings for no reason.
He is chasing his next big story, without realising he may never get one.
😀
Rob Oakeshott @RobOakeshott1 2m
Whyalla-is it still a city of Australia,or wiped off the map?Senate- take time to check the facts on emissions trading. More jobs, not less.
Warning, a bit OTT.
[https://twitter.com/THE_Russell/status/488230184751874048/photo/1]