A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.
[Must be the meme handed out to coalition MPs. Even Turnbull was saying “situation normal” re the senate this morning. You gotta laugh at this motley crew]
“Situation Normal” is the first two words of the military acronym SNAFU. The remainder being “, All F..d Up”.
Does anybody besides me find Abbott’s repeated predictions that the Carbon Tax will be repealed soon somewhat reminiscent of his repeated predictions that MH370 will be found soon?
I wonder if he’s getting treatment for his premature ejaculations?
Socrates
Well done to the Guardian for its accurate report on Ian Callinan’s appointment.
The SMH report, by contrast, has a real clanger:
[One of his first decisions was a lone dissent favouring the government’s argument that it and stevedore Patrick’s had not engaged in an unlawful conspiracy to injure the Maritime Union of Australia and its members.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-appoints-former-high-court-judge-to-chair-compensation-review-panel-20140711-zt42s.html#ixzz3785MAQp0
The SMH also mentioned that Justice Callinan wrote a very long judgment in Workchoices case (NSW v Commonwealth) but omitted to mention that he agreed with Michael Kirby in finding, against the Howard Government, that the legislation was invalid.
Pretty obvious hatchet job by Fairfax.
I just recieved an email from the Premier regarding my complaints about removal of the Solar bonuses.
Blames the former goverment straight of the bat.
“Unfortunatly, the cost of the former goverment’s poorly planned $3.3 billion SBS is estimated to hit all electricity bills by around $276 per household by 2015-16, whether they have solar panels or not. This is simply not fair.”
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 3m
There are about 50 users on the fibre to the basement trial now. #NBN No tiers, just the raw speed right now.
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 31s
NBN Co is backing away from the previous indication it would sell plans at speeds it couldn’t achieve.
caf
[“Situation Normal” is the first two words of the military acronym SNAFU. The remainder being “, All F..d Up”.]
Now it is
[Situation Normal Abbott Flucked Up]
or as it was the senate
[Situation Normal Abetz Fuacked Up]
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 1m
There could be a situation where NBN Co replaces copper with copper where one premises in an area has bad copper but the others are ok.
If I may this once, Mr Bowe…
Petition against de-funding the Australian paralympian soccer team.
http://tinyurl.com/oqyqb2o
poroti
[Earlier centre made a comment about a Portuguese bank. This is a report on the bank and what happened.
Portugal’s Largest Bank Espirito Santo Misses Bond Payment
Banco Espirito Santo SA bonds plunged to record lows after a parent company delayed payments on short-term notes, reawakening concern that banks remain vulnerable as the euro region emerges from the sovereign debt crisis.]
You mean people actually invested in a bank called “Holy Ghost”? 😮
Holy shee-it!
Zoid:
[I just recieved an email from the Premier regarding my complaints about removal of the Solar bonuses.
Blames the former goverment straight of the bat.]
Well, they and the other State govt of the time did fark it up. Labor do cock things up from time to time (albeit usually with good intentions).
What I mean is, giving massive* subsidies for rooftop PV installations at the same time as building new coal-fired generators suppressed the wholesale market to the point that almost nothing new is being built now, renewable or fossil-fuel fired.
They would have done much better investing the money in smart technologies for managing peak load. That way, the networks would not have needed as much expansion, with all the extra costs that brought, and neither would generation capacity. But the Governments earn revenue from both those actions, and we know that pollies love having money to spend on their constituents, so they chose not to look at the system-wide picture.
* Massive, hugely uneconomic, and highly inequitable and regressive = a proper clusterfark, and now we all pay more.
@olliemilman: Spectator Australia’s bizarre, premature front cover this week. Embarrassing in so many ways pic.twitter.com/3EcRJzHGTa
https://mobile.twitter.com/olliemilman/status/487421150473879552/photo/1
@LV/960
UK has been doing that for ages, and prices have still gone up.
Senator Conroy askiny why a 16 now 17 year old kid has to put in an FOI request
vic
Andrew Bolt featured that front cover on his blog yesterday under the heading “Dancing on the grave of the carbon tax”. I did have a good laugh.
Sir Mad
The tory cheersquad have been good for a laugh lately!
Here is Clive’s interview last night on 7.30 report
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4043773.htm
[UK has been doing that for ages, and prices have still gone up.]
On generation, the UK has been decommissioning nuclear plants at the same time, so the new, subsidised renewables generation has filled the hole nuclear left.
If we’d been decommissioning old coal-fired plants at the same time as subsidising rooftop PV, then the policy would have made perfect sense.
But we were doing the opposite and building more coal-fired plants… now we have state-owned overcapacity in coal- and gas-fired generation that still needs to be paid for.
Major policy failure. Everyone loses.
Judging by comments by Sen. Lambie, Tone has really endeared himself to all the new Senators by attributing his governments chaos to their inexperience.
I think he has ensured things won’t get any easier. 👿
Fran:
[Let’s also keep in mind who would be most hurt or most benefit if a Double Dissolution election were held in early August. Hint Clive would fancy his chances if improving. So would we Greens.]
I don’t think the Greens would be so sanguine. Remember that two quotas at a DD is a higher bar than one quota at two subsequent half-Senate elections, and just to equal their current representation the Greens would need to reach two DD quotas in at least 4 states. Tasmania and Victoria seem probable to deliver that, and probably WA too now that Scott Ludlam has fired up – but I think finding that fourth state (and fifth to actually improve on their current position) would be an uphill battle.
Libertarian Unionist@967
Well it is a hard ask in Victoria because Jeff sold off all the power stations and the buyers paid too much.
They are now determined to eke out as much as they can from them, including Hazelwood, the dirtiest power station in Australia.
The only way Hazelwood will shut any time soon is if the taxpayer stumps up for it.
Where did all this malarkey about revenue bills come from. Not from the facts.
[The powers of the two Houses of the Parliament in relation to proposed laws are set out in section 53 of the Constitution. The Senate and the House of Representatives have equal powers in respect of all proposed laws, subject only to certain limitations imposed on the Senate. Those limitations are:
proposed laws appropriating money or imposing taxation may not originate in the Senate
the Senate may not amend proposed laws imposing taxation or appropriating money for the ordinary annual services of the government and
the Senate may not amend any proposed law so as to increase any charge or burden on the people.
Where the Senate may not amend a proposed law, it may request the House of Representatives to make specified amendments, and may withhold its agreement to the proposed law if the House of Representatives does not agree to its requests.]
The last bit is the important bit, the Govt could have allowed PUP to put its 3rd version amendment as a request to the HoR then PUP would agree if the request was agreed to.
Why didn’t this occur? I smell a rat.
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 3m
Ludlam questioning ex-News Limited CFO Stephen Rue on his appointment to NBN Co. He has no telco experience. #NBN
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 2m
“How much does The Australian lose a year?” Conroy asks. Rue says that’s a question for News. #NBN
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 1m
Rue says he doesn’t see NBN Co as a competitor to Foxtel. Says it is bandwidth vs content.
Oh what a pleasant thought…
Could the end of the carbon tax spell the end of Abbott?
[Could it be that the repeal of the carbon tax is the worst thing that could possibly happen to Tony Abbott?
Such a proposition seems bizarre but consider the following pre-election statements from Abbott and Environment Minister Greg Hunt about the carbon tax’s impact on the cost of living. Then consider what the actual companies concerned now say will happen with their prices.
…
Abbott’s very rise was built on hyperbole about a carbon tax that would be a wrecking ball, undermining our very way of life, hurting our hip pocket at every turn. He rose on a chorus of front page news on the Daily Telegraph, Herald-Sun and Courier Mail screaming about the carbon tax’s impact on the cost of living.
Now it looks like he’ll be hung by his own hyperbole.
The electorate have already found themselves deeply disappointed to find that budgets deficits aren’t lowered by some kind of magically painless “DNA” which only the Coalition possess, which was Abbott’s pre-election rhetoric. Rather it has been plain old tax increases and cuts to government benefits and services. Since the May budget, poll after poll has charted an almost unprecedented level of unpopularity for a government and leader less than 12 months into its first term. Some polls have the government trailing 45 per cent to Labor’s 55 per cent on a two-party preferred basis – this would represent electoral devastation for the Coalition.
Now the electorate’s inflated expectations – fed by Abbott’s cheerleaders in the tabloid press – will suddenly crash into a second wall of economic reality, post carbon tax repeal.
After their visits to the supermarket and when they open their next electricity bills, consumers around the nation will be deflated to find very little improvement in their cost of living.]
This may not the the whole story of the end Tone, but it will be a large part. 😆
bemused
You are being too modest about Hazelwood, rather than just Victoria it is…..
[Hazelwood tops international list of dirty power stations
Victoria’s out-dated Hazelwood power station is the most polluting of all power stations operating in the world’s major industrialised countries]
http://www.wwf.org.au/?2320/Hazelwood-tops-international-list-of-dirty-power-stations
zoidlord@973
I think he is technically correct.
But where the NBN poses a threat is in lowering the barriers to entry of competitors, and those competitors can be anywhere in the world.
[The only way Hazelwood will shut any time soon is if the taxpayer stumps up for it.]
Well, there’s more than one way to skin a cat.
We could just make burning brown coal too expensive to be financially feasible, and let the market decide what replaces them.
Or the Federal government could offer the owners of Hazelwood, Morwell, Loy Yang, etc, loans at Govt borrowing rates to invest in replacement renewable generation, conditional on their closing down the brown-coal power plants.
Putting the two together, the state could ensure that they brown coal plants are replaced with clean sources of electricity, and it *should* be possible to calibrate things so that the owners of the generators don’t loose out – it becomes the rational thing for them to agree to the new investment.
And by “should” I mean I’ve just come up with it and haven’t thought it through at all.
[The only way Hazelwood will shut any time soon is if the taxpayer stumps up for it.]
Well, there’s more than one way to skin a cat.
We could just make burning brown coal too expensive to be financially feasible, and let the market decide what replaces them.
Or the Federal government could offer the owners of Hazelwood, Morwell, Loy Yang, etc, loans at Govt borrowing rates to invest in replacement renewable generation, conditional on their closing down the brown-coal power plants.
Putting the two together, the state could ensure that they brown coal plants are replaced with clean sources of electricity, and it *should* be possible to calibrate things so that the owners of the generators don’t loose out – it becomes the rational thing for them to agree to the new investment.
And by “should” I mean I’ve just come up with it and haven’t thought it through at all.
poroti@975
I had a hunch that might be the case but try to avoid hyperbole so settled for a local comparison. 😉
Bill shorten interview this morning on radio national
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/rn/podcast/2014/07/bst_20140711_0737.mp3
ooh, a double post. I have’t done that before.
@bemused/976
Correct.
Ru
What do you mean? The amendments are going to the HOR on Monday and return to the senate thereafter
Palmer carbon tax repeal amendment: government seeks more changes
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/11/palmer-carbon-tax-repeal-amendment-government-seeks-more-changes
Libertarian Unionist@978
Well no doubt there are such as you identified.
But the privatisation at inflated prices certainly complicates matters.
I am sure the owners would not have paid what they did without all sorts of protections in the contracts so I suspect any action taken will end up costing the taxpayer.
Kenneth Tsang @jxeeno 23s
Conroy asked for a series of “no”s from #NBN Co.
Since Abbott is so big on Japanese ‘honour’ during World War Two, here is a list of people ‘honoured’ by the Yasukuni Shrine and hence by Abe.
Hideki Tōjō, Seishirō Itagaki, Heitarō Kimura, Kenji Doihara, Akira Mutō, Kōki Hirota, Iwane Matsui, Yoshijirō Umezu, Kuniaki Koiso, Hiranuma Kiichirō, Toshio Shiratori, Shigenori Tōgō
These were the big guys. Yasukuni honours more than one thousand other war criminals.
Doihara’s ‘honour’ should appeal to Abbott. He was certainly highly skilled.
Libertarian Unionist@981
Relax, there are two types of posters here, those who have made double posts and those who will.
You have just moved from the second to the first category. 😛
@latikambourke: Liberal Democrat @DavidLeyonhjelm says he will pursue the deregulation of marriage during his time in the Senate: http://t.co/YaVNJa9Qd1
Abbott must be playing the long game with the new Senate.
He has publicly blamed the ‘inexperience’ of the new senators for all the fukt ups.
Lambie, for one, is not buying it. Wtte, ‘bring it on!’
[I am sure the owners would not have paid what they did without all sorts of protections in the contracts so I suspect any action taken will end up costing the taxpayer.]
Yeah, that’s quite likely. Bastardos.
Boerwar
For Abbott the long game is anything beyond one week!
Clive Palmer’s audacious bid to ensure households play less for electricity after the carbon tax is abolished may be an empty gesture.
Mr Palmer is insisting the Abbott government’s repeal legislation include tougher penalties on energy companies and possibly other businesses that do not pass on savings to consumers.
Palmer United Party senators voted with Labor and the Greens to foil government attempts to abolish the tax in the Senate this week.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/dont-hold-breath-on-power-prices-expert-20140711-3bs14.html
Just Me
I signed that petition yesterday – good on you for posting it!
As per link by warrenpeace
[“We try to give them a little bit of trust and they’ve just blown it out of the water, so I guess it is just open slather,” said Tasmanian PUP senator Jacqui Lambie, alleging the government had tried to “trick” her party.
“If you want to come into the kennel with the PUPs be prepared to be chewed up and spat back out,” she told Channel 10.]
You gotta laugh
Libertarian Unionist@991
Well, I don’t blame them, it was the corrupt, evil Kennett Govt that was supposed to be acting in the interests of Victorian taxpayers.
victoria
Rather than an “empty gesture ” it should be looked at as being something that will show how big a lie Abbott’s $550 is.
poroti
It is fairly obvious that the $550 saving to households is a big fat lie
[Well, I don’t blame them, it was the corrupt, evil Kennett Govt that was supposed to be acting in the interests of Victorian taxpayers.]
Oh yes, that’s who I was referring to.
The GenCo’s just follow the money.
Boerwar @ 990
[He has publicly blamed the ‘inexperience’ of the new senators for all the fukt ups.]
Abbott’s problem is that they weren’t inexperienced enough to be taken in by the con job he and Abetz tried to pull on them yesterday.