Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

792 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

Comments Page 13 of 16
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  3. I am heading out now for several hours. Will miss the RC today into the CFMEU.

    Kezza gave a fabulous summary of proceedings yesterday.

  4. From a lurker’s point of view, Rummel is as irritating as Pyne. However, I’d be more inclined to forgive R as I believe he’s very young – certainly appears so -, often poorly informed but, as with youth, you give them some latitude.

  5. [Rummel was put off by William’s less than tactful comment that he was “stupid as a bag of hammers”]

    In all modesty I had just called him an idiot a few posts before William’s comment, and William chimed in.

    The occasion was that Rummell had said it was “interesting” that melting land ice was reforming as sea ice in Antarctica.

    It may well be interesting, but it has also been an established fact for some time that Rummell has presumably missed in his zeal to ascribe every cold day as proof Global Warming doesn’t exist and every warm day as “weather”… hence the “idiot” call.

    In Rummell World, ice in Antarctica can only be put down to 97% of the world’s Climate scientists being wrong.

  7. shellbell
    Military respect for the law
    “The military would know that. They don’t need a reminder from the ALP.”
    Most wouldn’t share your confidence

    The military would no doubt have asked for assurance from the government that ” operation sovereign boarders”, having received the advise on a scrap to toilet paper they proceeded.
    A bit like the weapons of mass destruction , it’s a legal war advice.

  8. [602
    guytaur

    briefly

    It is rare that specialist panels on QandA are not worth watching]

    ..and seldom any good when the usual panels loosen their blah-blah….

  9. The obvious rejoinder from Rummell regarding William’s observation that he was “”as dumb as a bag of hammers was that he had sufficient wit to nail all the lefties of PB on Climate Change.

    That he chose to pout and piss off probably confirms William’s comment.

  10. BB, I think Rummel serves a purpose here with his inane comments as they make people think.

    He makes people think, can a person be seriously be that stupid and not realise it?

  13. Shellbell

    I think you missed my point. Labor should announce a royal commission in OSB (and about 5 other things too).

    If the commission finds there has been breaches of the law then Labor should refer matters to the DPP with the strong assumption that they would be prosecuted if there is a case to answer and sufficient evidence. I was making the assumption that the RC would have already indicated if there were probable breaches of the law although the DPP would need to check that the evidence stacked up and could be used in criminal proceedings.

    Not sure about the rules for court martials.

  14. [The military would know that. They don’t need a reminder from the ALP.]

    Yeah because institutional sexual assault brought to light by labor so clearly makes your point for you – oh wait it makes the opposite point.

  15. [However, I’d be more inclined to forgive R as I believe he’s very young – certainly appears so -, often poorly informed but, as with youth, you give them some latitude.]

    Rummell make a living from swindling lefties into thinking he’s amenable to reason. He’s not.

    On the occasion of his mate’s illness, PBers were donating money to the cause – a “walkathon” or similar fund raising event. They fell over themselves to show concern. Rummell took the money, and then came back as mocking and triumphantly idiotic as ever.

    You can’t change them, those drive-by trolls. They’re like Liberals and the ABC: no matter how obsequious the ABC becomes, no matter how “balanced” their reports, it doesn’t do them any good. They’re gone, no matter what they do or how much they crawl.

    Last week an entire leg of the ABC was hacked off… Australia TV. It went without so much as a passing mention on the day. Albrechtsen and Brown have been appointed to the selection panel. Again, hardly a whimper, except from Media Watch. They apologized for the Chaser’s “dog f**king” segment, and paid out Chris Kenny’s expenses. They censured Stephen Long for criticising Scott Morrison (Long got some revenge last night with his brilliant 4 Corners program on Alternative Energy technologies and politics – do yourselves a favour and watch it on iView).

    No matter what they do, the ABC will be gutted more as time goes by. the Abbottistas don’t even bother to disguise it. They brag about how they’re going to cut its funding, because in their eyes it doesn’t toe the government line or is not sufficiently patriotic (the same charge levelled at them back in Iraw war days, by Alston).

    You cant change their minds. You can’t reason with or be nice to them, or even sponsor their walkathons. They just see that as a sign of weakness, and go in harder.

    So in the meantime you may as call call a spade a spade and tell them they’re idiots, or a dumb as a bag of hammers – take your pick.

  16. rummel purports to be a grown up. If he insists on insulting the intelligence of the bludgers, he has to expect to be rebuked.

  18. lizzie

    I know he’s married and has a family. That doesn’t mean he’s old. I’d say he’s barely thirty and has the smartypants brain of a year8.

  19. [victoria

    Posted Tuesday, July 8, 2014 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    badcat

    I am currently reading Fiasco. It was recommended by a talkback caller on ABC774 a few weeks ago
    ]

    ——————————————-

    Hi Victoria – its an excellent book isn’t it ? …. they planned for the war BUT neglected to plan for the aftermath ….. and all the chickens came home to roost – the reveberations of their totally failed strategy is still evident in todays news.

    Check the “Blood Money” book too … Wasted Billions, Lost Lives, and Corporate Greed in Iraq – It was supposed to be quick, easy, and cheap: the Bush administration promised American taxpayers that Iraqi oil revenues would pay for it all. But thousands of lives and billions of dollars later, the Iraqi reconstruction is an undeniable failure, overrun by staggering corruption, waste, and incompetence.

  20. [Tony Jones on #QandA @qanda of course doesn’t tell us Judith Sloan is a director of Rio Tinto.Of course not. #BigMiner]

  21. Gigi

    I disagree. Rummel either deserved William’s observation, or he is simply attempting to irritate people. No person of at worst mediocre cognitive accomplishment could unwittingly post as much arrant nonsense punctuated by so much malice towards the vulnerable and marginalised as Rummel.

    The more charitable inference is that William is right: that Rummel really is clueless and incapable of learning anything useful. Speaking as someone who has spent a good part of my life on fora such as these and longer yet examining the work of children to identify their learning needs and their acquisition, I suspect that Rummel is at worst of average cognitive accomplishment. In all probability, he feels dissatisfied with his pool of friends and acquaintances, and comes here for succour. Lacking anything original to say, and too indolent or else ill-equipped to contribute anything original to which others would respond, he simply plagiarises from the parts of the net the latest nonsense he feels confident will elicit outrage here, because any attention is better than none. For Rummel, the worth of the content is to be measured by how others respond to it. Even his announcement of departure gets the same metric.

    In behavioural terms, our tendency to respond to him is a kind of perverse reward. Unable to be affirmed, he settles for obloquy. When that becomes too much, he announces he’s leaving. If there are enough responses, he will return making some disingenuous apology for being a dill, or invent a new pseudonym, then rinse and repeat. He seems like a fool, but it’s more likely that he is simply emotionally needy — and needy people do all manner of foolish things, including acting the fool.

    Really, if my hypothesis is correct, he ought to seek professional help, deal with his issues and if successful return as a more thoughtful chap. I doubt he will follow that course though, sadly.

  22. [ You can’t change them, those drive-by trolls. They’re like Liberals and the ABC: no matter how obsequious the ABC becomes, no matter how “balanced” their reports, it doesn’t do them any good. They’re gone, no matter what they do or how much they crawl. ]

    The main difference is that rummel is likely to be back (albeit possibly in another guise) whereas the ABC will be as dead as the proverbial dodo before the Liberals have finished “improving” it.

  23. badcat

    Fiasco is a very detailed and thorough account of the Iraq invasion. Highly recommended.

    Anyhoo off for the afternoon. Talk later 🙂

  24. Retweeted by Lady Van Badham
    The Happy Camper ‏@Snarkathon 2m

    Bravo @AndrewLamingMP – way to represent your voters. via @vanbadham #auspol #LNP Garbage in, garbage out – Carlin

  25. badcat

    [an undeniable failure, overrun by staggering corruption, waste, and incompetence.]
    Not to mention a once secular country is now run by religious nuts and being overrun by a bunch of even nuttier religious nutters.

  26. rummel is annoying and to be sure I have given him, Mod Lib, CC, LSL and other tories a serve when I thought they needed it. But I hope this isn’t a scene out of Lord of The Flies.

  28. How long before William gets a writ from the “Hammer Collective” demanding he apologise and desist from associating them with Rummell?

  29. I am finding it hard to scrape together much sympathy for rummel, given his track record on PB.

    If you want to dish out irrational, provocative, partisan tripe, then you better be prepared to take a few shots back from your critics, without whining or running away.

  31. Japan set for a battering as a category 5 storm is on the way. Their PM picked a good time to be away.

    [Japan braces for ‘super typhoon’ bringing 150mph winds and lashing rain

    Typhoon Neoguri, described as a “once in decade storm”, was expected to rip through the Okinawa island chain on Monday, before making landfall on the island of Kyushu as it moves north.

    Meteorologists said there had already been gusts over 150mph and the typhoon could get stronger, growing into an “extremely intense” storm by Tuesday.]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-braces-for-super-typhoon-bringing-150mph-winds-and-lashing-rain-9588810.html

  33. Rummel makes no attempt to investigate any of his claims, so suffers for being an idiot. It’s his (her?) choice.

    In any case the whole Antarctic sea ice business is over blown. The mass of ice gained as sea ice is about 1/6th the amount lost off Antarctica.

    From this discussion: http://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/david-rose-and-the-antarctic-sea-ice-misrepresentation/

    The earth is losing a trillion tons of ice per year:

    – 159 Gt Antarctic land ice, McMillan el al, GRL (2014)
    + 26 Gt Antarctic sea ice, Holland et al, J Climate (2014)
    – 300 Gt Arctic sea ice, PIOMAS
    – 378 Gt Greenland, Enderlin et al, GRL (2014)
    – 278 Gt other land based glaciers, Gardner et al. Science (2013)

    – 1,070 Gt, total

    So we are down about 1 Trillion tonnes per year.
    Interestingly the sea level rise is still less than the volume of ice melted. Because there is now more water on land (in rivers and as floods).

    If you are about Rummel, we would talk to you, but if you persist in ignoring solid evidence and science people will describe you as an idiot.

  34. If it were a Labor PM about to welcome Shinzo Abe, then the “white blindfold view of history” brigade would be demanding that Abe apologise for WW2. At the same time as they reasserted that no-one should apologise for past misdeeds to indigenous Australians as (a) it was all in the past and therefore not their fault, and (b) it never happened anyway.

  36. [Hey Rummel
    Stick around, you are not too irritating. ]

    Rummel is hilarious will miss his theatre of the absurd in the very unlikely event he doesn’t return.

  37. What I mean is if Rummel goes, on whom can we use that brilliant line, “Dumb as a box of hammers”?

  39. Consumer Confidence, still falling, albit slower:

    Retweeted by Roy Morgan
    Warren Hogan ‏@anz_warrenhogan 1h

    ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence last week was again little changed, falling a modest 0.3% to 105.1…

  41. As someone who listened to the radio reading as a serial (out in the bush as a kids) Sister Bullwinkel’s book on her wartime experiences, I felt ill listening to Abbott’s crawling to the Japanese PM. I much prefer Shorten’s speech that puts us on equal footing, not an urchin with a begging bowl.

  42. I think Rummel is more reasonable compared to some of the other trolls we get from time to time.

    However, I can’t help but think it’s like one of those Creation vs Evolution debates, where the pro-evolution group makes a very convincing statement which blows the creationist member out of the water and makes him go “alright, I’ll read up more on that”.

    This only result in the creationist coming up again in later debates pushing the same old arguments he came up with previously.

  43. I think William should demonstrate more restraint than his guests.

    It’s all very well to ask his guests to set a good example – they being totally powerless in this forum to do anything other than either add more noise (however well intentioned) or stay silent (however well intentioned) – but William has far more weight behind his comments, other options besides.

  44. In regards to the speculation about Tony Abbott intending to alter the composition of the High Court, it should be noted that two of the seven justices will reach their mandatory retirement dates during this Parliamentary term (both of them mid 2015), and one in the following term.

  46. Were there a televised debate between a ‘box of hammers’ and Tony Abbott the hammers would probably win by hammering home the point, hitting the nail on the head and, finally, putting the final nail in Tony’s coffin.

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