Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

792 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  2. [
    A measure of Abbott’s lack of understanding of human nature was seen in full flight when he plucked the likes of Sophie Mirabella and Christopher Pyne from the backbench and elevated them to the front bench.
    ]

    Christopher Pyne was hardly plucked from the backbench by Abbott. I mean, he was a Minister under Howard for crying out loud. Plus this

    [
    Following Malcolm Turnbull’s election as Liberal Party Leader in September 2008, Pyne was elevated to the position of Shadow Minister for Education, Apprenticeships and Training.(11) After Deputy Leader Julie Bishop stepped down from the portfolio of Shadow Treasurer, Joe Hockey took up the portfolio, with Pyne replacing Hockey as Manager of Opposition Business. Pyne was reappointed as Shadow Minister for Education, Apprenticeships and Training and Manager of Opposition Business in the House of Representatives by Tony Abbott when he became Leader of the Opposition after deposing Malcolm Turnbull.(12)
    ]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Pyne

  3. [548
    guytaur

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott on High Court temporarily stopping transfer of asylum seekers ‘the person who bought this injunction is a former Labor candidate.’”]

    In saying this, Abbott is trying to take a bit of paint off Labor, but it will most likely work the other way around. Voters will take note of the HC (always held in the highest regard by the public) and be glad to associate justice, relief and Labor connections.

    Abbott’s handling of A-S is boiling down to the use of force rather than the application of law. Voters cannot feel comfortable with this.

  5. shellbell @ 551: Mr Abbott is a person who publicly buckets climate scientists and dying asbestos campaigners, but will happily write a reference for a creepy priest. To be slimed by someone like Mr Abbott would, in the eyes of the man on the Clapham omnibus, be a mark of honour.

  6. [ poroti

    Posted Tuesday, July 8, 2014 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    BK

    That New Matilda link has a line from Greg Sheridan that must be the most vomitous obsequious fawning line I’ve ever read.

    this account of the “fall of Baghdad” from Greg Sheridan……….
    The eagle is soaring. The bald eagle of American power is aloft, high above the humble earth, and everything it sees is splendid. For as it soars and swoops it sees victory, power, opportunity.
    ]

    ———————————————

    For an “alternative’ view of the ‘liberation of Iraq/WMD/aftermath/waste etc’ …… 2 excellent books:

    FIASCO ( Thomas E Ricks)

    BLOOD MONEY ( Christian T Miller )

    …. expose Sheridan as the bullshitting fool/stooge he is ….

  7. briefly

    [Voters will take note of the HC (always held in the highest regard by the public) ]
    Just 6 days ago was a reminder of that.

    [News: High Court is Australia’s most trusted institution

    A recent Essential Poll records that Australia’s most trusted institution is the High Court of Australia. 20% of the 1835 people surveyed said that they placed “a lot of trust” in the High Court” and 37% said that they placed “some trust” in the High Court. The High Court outstripped all other institutions, but was closely followed by the ABC.]
    http://blogs.unimelb.edu.au/opinionsonhigh/2014/07/01/news-high-court-is-australias-most-trusted-institution/

  8. Zoomster

    I once saw Mahatir on the ABC – It was a panel show – ?? hypothetical???? – Any way I was struck by how very, very mart he was.

  9. Morning all

    George Newhouse was interviewed this morning on ABC774. Jon Faine told him about Abbott’s comments re being a former Labor candidate. Newhouse responded wtte that he does not care what Abbott says about him. He was a Labor candidate ages ago, and his involvement in this matter has nothing to do with Liberal/Labor, but the wellbeing of those seeking asylum.
    He also said that as a person of jewish background, he likens what this govt is doing to the Jews being handed over to the Nazis

  11. The ALP should announce that it will on return to government appoint a Royal Commission to investigate Operation Sovereign Borders, with full access to all Cabinet papers. The will, at the very least, put everyone involved on notice, from General Campbell down, that they had better start thinking hard about the legality of what they are doing, and about their own legal positions.

  16. [The ALP should announce that it will on return to government appoint a Royal Commission to investigate Operation Sovereign Borders, with full access to all Cabinet papers.]

    That presumes that people like Melissa Parke and Anna Burke have some pull in the ALP which they obviously don’t.

  18. pedant

    Absoluteley agree

    I would also add that labor should publicly and loudly state that if it is found crimes have been committed by Australian officials – armed forces, public servants or contractors then they WILL be prosecuted.

    Captains of naval boats should be left in NO DOUBT that if their actions lead to death or injury which was reasonably foreseeable they WILL be charged and if convicted jailed. Naval officers are highly educated and will have been taught the law of the sea. They MUST follow it.

  19. Victoria

    Rummel was put off by William’s less than tactful comment that he was “stupid as a bag of hammers”

  20. “@justinbarbour: RT @MarkDiStef: For those wondering, the High Court asylum seeker determination expected at 1400 AEST in Melbourne”

  21. [Captains of naval boats should be left in NO DOUBT that if their actions lead to death or injury which was reasonably foreseeable they WILL be charged and if convicted jailed.]

    Before the ALP announce this, they better announce that they intend to legislate for themselves to be allocated the role of prosecutor and judge.

  23. shellbell @ 566: No, I’m saying what the ALP should do, not what I think it will do. That having been said, it seems to me that even the hardheads in the ALP might appreciate that the freedom of action which Operation Sovereign Borders has enjoyed to date could well come to be a bit more constrained if the key decision makers therein are put on notice that they might well have to justify their actions in a courtroom.

  24. victoria & DTT

    I don’t think rummel’s stupid, which is why his smart alec quotes on AGW are so irritating. Some of the “abuse” was a bit silly, I thought.

  25. pedant

    On what possible basis would an opposition be well advised to threaten members of the nation’s armed forces.

    One basis, I suppose, would be if they want to stay in opposition for eternity.

  28. shellbell

    It is in accord with a democratic government form of government not an autocracy.

    Remember the threat only applies to lawbreakers

  30. A Melbourne hearing means one judge (which makes sense as the High Court does not normally sit in July and does not do hearings in Melbourne, anyway).

    A single judge of the High Court is very constrained in what he or she can do which suggests that all that is being dealt with is the status quo pending a hearing before the full court which may not convene until August.

  31. [Mahatir is one who thinks he’s damned smart but is really just plain nasty.]

    Considering how much he hated Australia, he did not mind coming out her for a bit of serious surgery.

  32. Shellbell

    I am not sure what you are getting at. Civilians can be tried in courts for actions putting life at risk. This covers MorriSCUM (William the first time I have ever used this term but after the transfer to SriLanka I want to use stronger expletives)

    Military personnel court martialled (not that this will be much use).

    There may even be cases for Hague trials if not within Australia’s legal jurisdiction

    Put it this way. If an Australian merchant or cruise ship captain or indeed the captain of a large pleasure yacht found 25 refugees on a leaky boat, then rather than bringing them on board towed them to a place where either the seas were known to be dangerous or to where they were “captured” by pursuers what would be their legal breaches.

  33. [It is in accord with a democratic government form of government not an autocracy.]

    Hardly.

    It would be an example of a SHYism in extremis.

    It would involve the ALP ceding the very limited moral authority it has on the issue by threatening an institution which is probably on a par with the High Court.

  34. [562
    victoria

    I see that not much love being shown to Rummel, has seen him depart PB.]

    Most likely this will turn out to be like van Onselen and twitter – he might like to escape, but finds he can’t stay away.

    rummel gets short shrift here, but has only himself to blame.

  35. Shellbell

    On any basis. The idea that the armed forces are above the law is very, very wrong and is the first rung on the totalitarian ladder.

    I recently heard of a case which has shamed me as an Australian. Apparently 30-40 years ago Australian Navy personnel committed deliberate acts of piracy against Thai/Malaysian fishermen. They would confiscate possessions and with local accomplices sell these in on shore flea markets. Originally court martialled and convicted this was overturned on appeal.

    Shame Australia shame.

  36. DTT

    It is pretty obvious.

    You advocate politicians telling the community at large that (the politicians) are going to have some say in the charging and jailing of people.

  37. Shellbell

    Rule of Law is more important than giving respect to the military. In fact the military has to respect and abide by the rule of law.

    That fails and we are an autocracy

  38. DTT

    [On any basis. The idea that the armed forces are above the law is very, very wrong and is the first rung on the totalitarian ladder.]

    Sounds like we are at cross-purposes

  39. shellbell @ 575: A requirement for legal accountability is not a “threat”. I don’t know whether or not anyone involved with Operation Sovereign Borders has broken the law, though I assume that the High Court won’t be extending its interim injunction today unless some breach of law is at least arguable.

    In any case, I would have thought that it’s in the interest of military officers for everyone, including Ministers, to be thinking good and hard about whether what is happening now is legal. In the absence of such a discipline, the government is likely to continue on its merry way; and after what happened to the Navy officers who crossed into Indonesian waters, the military ought really to be concerned that they will wind up carrying the can for any breaches of the law. So the creation of an environment in which everyone has to worry more about whether what is being done is legal would be in their interests.

    I’m reminded that we are coming up to the 40th anniversary of Nixon’s resignation: and of course, perhaps the most critical moment in Watergate came when John Dean realised that he was in danger of becoming the patsy for the whole cover-up, and decided that he needed to get his own counsel and look after his own interests. It would be no bad thing if some of the people in Operation Sovereign Borders were encouraged to start thinking along similar lines.

  41. [581
    shellbell

    Mahatir is one who thinks he’s damned smart but is really just plain nasty.

    Considering how much he hated Australia, he did not mind coming out here for a bit of serious surgery.]

    Must have been a transplant….new conscience or something

  42. guytaur

    [Rule of Law is more important than giving respect to the military. In fact the military has to respect and abide by the rule of law.]

    The military would know that. They don’t need a reminder from the ALP.

  43. As someone with Singapore and Malaysian heritage, I’d say Mahathir has had his ups and downs. I don’t like his successors any more though but he’s also started rambling on now.

    His children though, pretty brilliant. I understand his daughter sent his granddaughter here in Melbourne for studies. Met her by chance but not long enough to make any impression. I think he fell sick when he was here. He was meant to give a talk.

  44. Shellbell

    Reminders from the ALP may be welcome as ammunition by officers to tell Morrison to F Off with his illegal orders.

  46. [590
    victoria

    briefly

    I am one who always gives rummel a serve, but I felt a little bad about yesterday.]

    I wouldn’t be too troubled, victoria. rummel goads the bludgers. It’s become his thing. He must derive some sort of satisfaction from it.

  47. shellbell @ 592: I have the greatest respect for the ability and integrity of many senior military officers in Australia. But a cursory glance at their institutions’ recent travails in the area of sexual harassment would suggest that occasional reminders that nobody is above the law would by no means be uncalled for.

  48. [My sources tell me the (admittedly attentuated) left wing of the Liberal Party is losing its patience with this open contempt for convention and abrogation of decency.]

    [http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbott-and-his-criminal-gang,6647#.U7sXa84wB5g.twitter]

    Left wing of the Liberal Party, albeit attenuated? I though all the pinkos, i.e. everyone left of Ghengis Khan, had long been tarred, feathered and run out of the party, Abbott having finished what began under Howard.

  49. Rummel if you check in at some time and catch up a word of advice. Just take a break for a while and see what happens. It works a treat.

    Lurking quietly is also a good plan 🙂

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