Seat of the week: Leichhardt

Electorally volatile in recent times, the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt has generally gone the way of the winning party at elections in the modern era, an exception being present incumbent Warren Entsch’s win for the Liberal National Party after he returned from retirement in 2010.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Leichhardt consists of the northernmost part of Queensland, including Cairns at its southern extremity along with Cape York Peninsula and the Torres Strait Islands. Naturally marginal Cairns provides it with about two-thirds of its voters, the remainder coming from conservative-leaning rural areas along the coast immediately to the north, and Labor-voting indigenous communities beyond. The electorate ranks sixth out of the nation’s 150 electorates for the highest proportion of indigenous persons, behind the two Northern Territory electorates, neighbouring Kennedy, Durack in northern Western Australia, and Parkes in interior New South Wales. Another distinguishing features is a large number of voters over 55, reflecting the popularity of Cairns as a retirement haven.

The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, prior to which its area was mostly accommodated by Herbert until 1934 and Kennedy thereafter. Herbert and then Kennedy were in Labor hands from 1928 to 1949, but Leichhardt was narrowly won by the Country Party at its inaugural election, which saw the Menzies government come to power. However, Labor won the seat at the subsequent election in 1951, and it remained in the party fold until David Thomson gained it for the National Country Party amid Labor’s statewide debacle of 1975. Warren Entsch became the seat’s first Liberal member when he unseated Labor’s Peter Dodd with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, polling 31.8% to the Nationals candidate’s 20.4%. Entsch suffered only a 0.5% swing at the 1998 election, compared with a statewide swing of 7.2%, and subsequently built his margin up to double figures with swings of 2.3% in 2001 and 3.6% in 2004.

Entsch’s local popularity was further illustrated when he bowed out temporarily at the 2007 election, Labor gaining the seat in his absence with a towering swing of 14.3%, the second biggest of that election after Forde in Brisbane’s outer south. The result also underscored the local eclipse of the Nationals, whose candidate polled only 4.0%. Incoming Labor member Jim Turnour managed only a single term before falling victim at the 2010 election to the combined impact of a statewide Labor rout, which cost them seven out of their existing 15 Queensland seats, and the return from retirement of Warren Entsch. Labor’s margin of 4.1% was easily accounted for by a swing of 8.6%, to which Entsch added a further 1.2% at the 2013 election.

Warren Entsch came to politics after serving in the Royal Australian Air Force from 1969 to 1978, then working as a maintenance fitter and welder, real estate agent, farmer and grazier and company director. After winning election in 1996 and re-election in 1998, he was promoted to parliamentary secretary but thereafter rose no higher, and went to the back bench upon announcing his retirement citing family reasons in 2006. During his subsequent three-year interregnum he was director of Cairns construction company CEC Group and the Australian Rainforest Foundation, but talk soon emerged of a political comeback, first in relation to the 2009 state election and then for his old seat. With this accomplished he served for a term as the Coalition’s chief whip, before relinquishing the position to Philip Ruddock after the 2013 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Seat of the week: Leichhardt”

Comments Page 12 of 14
1 … 11 12 13 14

  2. [A Bludger self confessed Buddhist saying kids born with disabilities deserve to be so because of former life sins is as fundy as you can get.]

    Anyone who says that isn’t a actually Buddhist or if they are they don’t have a clue about what Buddhism is about. Its a fundamental misunderstanding of lots of stuff to say that.

    Then again thats a pretty common thing with all religions.

  3. For those interested, the Swans are Ballerina favourites ahead of Hawthorn, Port and the Dockers.

    In the World Cup, the big guns are Brazil, Argentina, Germany and France with Holland ahead of the rest.

  5. Woohoo! I’ve moved to outright second spot on the office footy tipping competition. One point off the comp leader.

    Bit nervous about hanging in there for the remainder of the season though. My experience with footy tipping comps is that I tend to peak early and taper away as the season progresses.

  8. Centre:

    I’ve spent the last 4 rounds working my way to the top, copping stick from the guys at work for my effort.

    Top 3 spots are now all gals. Guys not doing so well this year. 😀

  11. Tipping competition system:

    1. Select home team favourites.

    2. Select home team outsiders with a 60% or more success rate (past decade) against opponents.

    3. Select away team favourites with a 40% or more success rate (past decade) against opponents.

    😎

  13. Chile could go far in the World Cup if they avoid Brazil in the Round of 16. They have been playing excellent football so far but Brazil are a bogey team for them, as my work colleague who is from Chile keeps reminding me. If Brazil top Group A as expected then Chile need to beat the Dutch in the final Group B games to finish top and avoid Brazil. Should be a cracker of a match.

    Argentina and Brazil haven’t been that impressive so far. But it’s early days and with their squads, I expect them to go far. I’m sticking with Brazil to win. But my faith has been tested.

  18. [1. Select home team favourites.

    2. Select home team outsiders with a 60% or more success rate (past decade) against opponents.

    3. Select away team favourites with a 40% or more success rate (past decade) against opponents.]

    My success has been solely attributed to:

    1. Realise late on Friday tips haven’t been submitted, and hastily pick up phone and tip according to the teams with the better odds, making a one off tip each week as a reasonable roughy.

    2. Repeat each week.

  19. Cahil’s goal was lauded by some seriously top footballers. He got international recognition for that cracker of a goal.

  20. Puffy:

    Well it’s good to see you pop your head out of the books every now and again. 🙂 Hope the studies are going well.

  22. Yes, Tim Cahill’s goal is goal of the tournament so far for me. Just about the best goal I’ve seen from an Australian. Fantastic. That game against the Dutch was just brilliant.

    In fact, this World Cup is shaping up as one of the best yet. Most of the games have been goal fests. This mornings Germany vs Ghana game was another cracker.

  25. [Darren Laver
    Posted Sunday, June 22, 2014 at 6:04 pm | PERMALINK
    I think Buddhism is about the only religion that does not have a bad name.

    Almost. There was one poster here who asserted, during the NDIS debate, that those with disabilities were “bad” people in a previous life and “deserved” their current fate. Appalling.]

    Well that certainly wasn’t me!

    As someone who is a Buddhist, but went to a Christian school and has lived here my whole life, I can see why Judeo-Christian people think karma is about revenge.

    Yes, karma would mean that an individual with a disability may well have thought, said, or done something in a previous life that contributed to their current fate. Karma is not the only force in nature, however, a factoid which is often misunderstood by non-Buddhists. Even the karmic causality is not revenge or punishment though (as we don’t believe in a God or Judge who determines the fate). If anything, it is the individual themselves that does it.

    It is a Judeo-Christian paradigm to think of guilt and punishment.

    Buddhists see bad karma as being a natural force of law and do not have any hostility against those who are suffering, as we see them as our brothers and sisters in suffering (as we are suffering too). Do you think the Buddhist people you know are nasty judgemental people? If so, you guys really need to get out more! :devil:

  26. [ajm
    …Mad Lib claims to be a Buddhist – so I think you should scratch them as well.]

    Quite fascinating, this ability to see everything in the Universe through the ALP vs. LNP paradigm.

    I am not sure there is insight into this here, though….

  27. Centre@519

    I fail to see a connection between religion and climate change. It should be no different to smoking.

    Smoking is bad for you, so is polluting the planet. What’s it to do with religion?

    I post on climate change on another blog, frequented mostly by US citizens.

    There is a very disturbing correlation in the US between fundamentalist religious belief and climate change denial. I’m not sure exactly why this should be the case, but it is very clearly so.

    Also, if you dig deeply enough, you find that nearly all the climate change denial web sites in the US are sponsored by one of two groups – oil companies or fundamentalist religions. Sometimes both.

  32. BB:

    I am strangely comfortable with your ridicule!

    Buddhists were laughed at by Hindus for being happy, when everyone knew that happiness was frivolous

    Buddhists were laughed at by Christiands for not thinking women were inferior and ordaining them as monks

    Buddhists were laughed at by everyone for thinking that the universe forms, exists and dies just like every living thing, rather than the obvious truth that a mysterious creature flicked a switch and it all came to be 6000 years ago!

    You may or may not be interested to know that not a single line in the Buddhist scriptures has had to be edited in any way in 2500 years, and Einstein apparently said it was the only religion which was still consistent with modern scientific findings about the universe.

    Laugh away!
    🙂

  33. I seem to recall that the Buddhist we’re talking about was of Sri Lankan origin and had some very RW ideas about forms of government.

  34. If it were true (which it isn’t) that disabled people are paying a price for past life sins, we have a duty to care and assist the less fortunate regardless.

    But not to provide care or assistance because of a belief they’re paying for past lives is nearly as LOONY thinking as the Greens.

  35. IMO anyone who defends someone/some government BECAUSE they are Buddhist is being just as stupid as someone who decides to believe in a policy JUST BECAUSE they normally support that party……just like teenage boys going for their favourite football team.

    Its OK to be a little more sophisticated than that you know!

    The Buddhists, including some governments in Buddhist majority countries, have been just like all other human beings at times. Let them rise and fall on their own actions. If you have an issue with Buddhism, find me the section in the texts which is wrong, don’t tell me about some “Buddhist” who has done something wrong.

  36. Mod Lib

    I’m not fussed with it (Buddhism).

    Hey, what’s the religion where you get your own planet filled with the opposite sex?

    It’s got me in, what have you got to lose 😈

  38. [There is a very disturbing correlation in the US between fundamentalist religious belief and climate change denial. I’m not sure exactly why this should be the case, but it is very clearly so.]
    Just follow the IQ!

  39. I think the idea that there is an omniscient, all-merciful God who is also omnipotent but lets children suffer with painful and incurable conditions is a hellavu lot more cringeworthy than saying that animate beings experience the same cause and effect laws as inanimate objects.

    Its cause and effect, its not “paying for past lives” as such.

  40. [Centre
    ….Hey, what’s the religion where you get your own planet filled with the opposite sex?

    It’s got me in, what have you got to lose ]

    Heaps if you are gay!
    🙂

  41. That wacky Story about the Russians and the anti-fracking cause in the USA
    ___________________

    The story has all the hall marks of something from, the McCarthy period in the 1950ies…real cold war stuff

    In fact travlelling around the USA quite a bit in recent years and reading local papers et al…it was oobvious that what I had read alsewhere about the intensity of the debate on fracking was very real…in fact impoassioned,and fought with great anger and concern
    I think the same is happening in Qland too

    In Pensylvania for instance there have been tens of thounsands of wells”fracked”under laws which give the owner of the land no way to stop the oil/gas companies from invading your land

    The Governor of the state is a rabid Republican under fire for having accepted money from the “frackers” and the are arguments about what are called “swarms” of small earthquakes in certain districts
    This debate is widespead and the big corporations are determined to silence their critic with lawsuits … the whole lot

    Now someone comes up with the idea that the Russians want ti impeed US “progress” in fracking…very funny stuff as long as you don’t believe it
    The Russians control the world’s largest gas resources and vast oil fields…why would they care…the US doesn’t buy from Russia anyway

    In the US… federal laws prevent the export of US gas and oil at present
    The story must come from the fertile brain of some spin-doctor ” and will be used to discredit the many local anti-fracking groups…who will be unable to prove the story false
    The oil companies will do ANYTHING to get their way

  42. [There is a very disturbing correlation in the US between fundamentalist religious belief and climate change denial. I’m not sure exactly why this should be the case, but it is very clearly so. ]

    Indeed.

    But they’re LOSING. 🙂

  43. Planet Janet, she’s on egg head Kenny’s show.

    “PUP Senators should be real Senators and pass Abbott’s budget”.

    Bird Brain 😛

  45. Everything

    “…Einstein apparently said it was the only religion which was still consistent with modern scientific findings about the universe.”

    How is karma consistent with any kind of science?

  48. Everything

    You didn’t say why. If your answer is ‘faith’ though, I’m glad you didn’t bother. It’s the ultimate non-answer.

  49. There’s nothing scientific about the notion of karma. It’s all about the individual belief.

    That said, I’m enjoying that some of those who bitched the loudest at the Gillard govt (ie seniors) are copping a shit load of karma thanks to the Abbott govt, which many of them voted for.

  50. Lefty e … re funfies and cc denial in US post 592
    ______________________

    The fundies believe that a loving God on high controls everything and if there is CC it is as he wills it to be

    Also there is a very anti-science view widespeard in the USA

    There is a great book called’The Republicans War on Science” and it looks at all these links…also the war on the teaching of evolution …..The US Science Teachers Asssoc. is constantly on guard to stop local schools ending the teaching of evolution in schools,and many battles rage from time to time

Comments Page 12 of 14
1 … 11 12 13 14

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *