Seat of the week: Leichhardt

Electorally volatile in recent times, the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt has generally gone the way of the winning party at elections in the modern era, an exception being present incumbent Warren Entsch’s win for the Liberal National Party after he returned from retirement in 2010.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Leichhardt consists of the northernmost part of Queensland, including Cairns at its southern extremity along with Cape York Peninsula and the Torres Strait Islands. Naturally marginal Cairns provides it with about two-thirds of its voters, the remainder coming from conservative-leaning rural areas along the coast immediately to the north, and Labor-voting indigenous communities beyond. The electorate ranks sixth out of the nation’s 150 electorates for the highest proportion of indigenous persons, behind the two Northern Territory electorates, neighbouring Kennedy, Durack in northern Western Australia, and Parkes in interior New South Wales. Another distinguishing features is a large number of voters over 55, reflecting the popularity of Cairns as a retirement haven.

The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, prior to which its area was mostly accommodated by Herbert until 1934 and Kennedy thereafter. Herbert and then Kennedy were in Labor hands from 1928 to 1949, but Leichhardt was narrowly won by the Country Party at its inaugural election, which saw the Menzies government come to power. However, Labor won the seat at the subsequent election in 1951, and it remained in the party fold until David Thomson gained it for the National Country Party amid Labor’s statewide debacle of 1975. Warren Entsch became the seat’s first Liberal member when he unseated Labor’s Peter Dodd with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, polling 31.8% to the Nationals candidate’s 20.4%. Entsch suffered only a 0.5% swing at the 1998 election, compared with a statewide swing of 7.2%, and subsequently built his margin up to double figures with swings of 2.3% in 2001 and 3.6% in 2004.

Entsch’s local popularity was further illustrated when he bowed out temporarily at the 2007 election, Labor gaining the seat in his absence with a towering swing of 14.3%, the second biggest of that election after Forde in Brisbane’s outer south. The result also underscored the local eclipse of the Nationals, whose candidate polled only 4.0%. Incoming Labor member Jim Turnour managed only a single term before falling victim at the 2010 election to the combined impact of a statewide Labor rout, which cost them seven out of their existing 15 Queensland seats, and the return from retirement of Warren Entsch. Labor’s margin of 4.1% was easily accounted for by a swing of 8.6%, to which Entsch added a further 1.2% at the 2013 election.

Warren Entsch came to politics after serving in the Royal Australian Air Force from 1969 to 1978, then working as a maintenance fitter and welder, real estate agent, farmer and grazier and company director. After winning election in 1996 and re-election in 1998, he was promoted to parliamentary secretary but thereafter rose no higher, and went to the back bench upon announcing his retirement citing family reasons in 2006. During his subsequent three-year interregnum he was director of Cairns construction company CEC Group and the Australian Rainforest Foundation, but talk soon emerged of a political comeback, first in relation to the 2009 state election and then for his old seat. With this accomplished he served for a term as the Coalition’s chief whip, before relinquishing the position to Philip Ruddock after the 2013 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Seat of the week: Leichhardt”

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  1. poroti

    [Nato boss claims Russia has secretly infiltrated green groups fighting fracking ]

    Yep – saw that piece as well.

  2. Open day at TAFE yesterday, very low turn out. Shocking in fact. No idea why but going from $1,500 to $8,000 per semester would have a lot to do with it. Tories don’t like an educated public, might boost the chattering classes.

  3. Centre
    [I think Buddhism is about the only religion that does not have a bad name.]
    Mad Lib claims to be a Buddhist – so I think you should scratch them as well.

  4. Centre

    my observation is that Buddhism is very self centred.

    The argument goes that one must get oneself fixed before venturing to help others — but, of course, no one ever fixes themselves, so they don’t get around to the helping others bit….

  5. I don’t know that religious beliefs matter. Many people, especially those who seek wealth and power, can justify to themselves pretty much anything they do and, if they are believers, they are convinced that they have God (or whatever diety) on their side.

    So in Burma Buddhists attack Rohingya Muslims, in Bosnia Orthodox Christians ethnically cleansed Bosnian Muslims and Croatian Catholics, Croatian Catholics ethnically cleansed Bosnian Serbs. In the New world Catholic Conquistadors committed genocide against Native Americans, devout Christians owned slaves, Catholic and Protestant Germans instigated the Holocast. In our day Muslim fanatics commit atrocities in the name of God…the list goes on. No one, including unbelievers, are innocent (evidence – Stalin).

  6. [I think Buddhism is about the only religion that does not have a bad name.]

    Around these parts it is surprising they escape the fundamentalist hate of faith.

  7. Speaking of religion ….. wacky ones ……

    Late last night I was channel flicking and saw the most bizarre explanation for AGW denial that I’ve ver heard.

    The show was about home schooling in the US and featured the weirdest of weird parents.

    Amongst the crap spouted was that since the second coming is imminent and upon that, goodies will go up, baddies will go down and the planet earth will be trashed, having served its purpose.

    So we can emit carbon as we like, use as much fossil fuels as we like, and race towards the destruction of the planet in any way we choose, because its only needed now for a brief, temporary purpose.

    Maybe that’s where the likes of Bernadi are ultimately coming from ….. a belief that since this life is a mere rehearsal, so what if we stuff things up a bit.

  8. S777

    [So in Burma Buddhists attack Rohingya Muslims]

    I was trying to come up with that example but was looking at the wrong country – Cambodia for some reason.

  9. [Around these parts it is surprising they escape the fundamentalist hate of faith.]
    A Bludger self confessed Buddhist saying kids born with disabilities deserve to be so because of former life sins is as fundy as you can get.

  10. psyclaw

    not uncommon amongst the religeuse I know — it doesn’t matter if we trash the planet, after all God gave it to us for our use, and if we do trash it too much, either the Second Coming will happen or we’ll be saved by a miracle…

    I’m not sure why someone would think God would appreciate his gifts being misused in this way.

  11. zoidlord@509

    Yep, it’s a team effort. Liberal federal & state governments working together to crush TAFE. Make absolutely no sense at all other than to benefit the likes of Whitehouse Institute.

  12. [A Bludger self confessed Buddhist saying kids born with disabilities deserve to be so because of former life sins is as fundy as you can get.]

    Yeah I would have agreed once, but guys around here have shown me that people without faith can be so much more scary fundy.

  13. CTar1

    [COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — Muslims shut their shops in Sri Lanka’s capital on Thursday to protest recent attacks by hard-line Buddhists and demand that the government punish those responsible.

    More than a thousand shops were closed for the day across Colombo, said Ibrahim Nisthar Miflal, president of the Muslims Rights Organization, which called the protest.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/19/muslims-protest-buddhist-attack-sri-lanka_n_5512242.html

  14. I fail to see a connection between religion and climate change. It should be no different to smoking.

    Smoking is bad for you, so is polluting the planet. What’s it to do with religion?

  15. [(Reuters Health) – The tiny particles in vehicle exhaust and other sources of air pollution may hasten cognitive decline in older adults, according to a new U. S. study.

    “We decided to examine the link between air pollution and cognitive function in older adults because there is growing evidence that fine particulate matter air pollution affects brain health and development, but relatively little attention has been given to what this means for the aging brain,” said Jennifer Ailshire, who co-wrote the report.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/18/us-pollution-aging-cognitive-function-idUSKBN0ET1NY20140618

  16. WeWantPaul

    Religions are made up of people, and people are fallible.

    Your contention seems to be that any criticism of religion = religious hatred.

    That’s scarcely a reasonable view.

  17. Centre
    [
    I fail to see a connection between religion and climate change.]
    In the US one of the planks that their anti AGW pollies and supporters used was that Dog would not let it happen unless it was part of his “plan” . Therefore trying to stop it was anti Dog.

  18. Mike

    [Yep, it’s a team effort. Liberal federal & state governments working together to crush TAFE. Make absolutely no sense at all other than to benefit the likes of Whitehouse Institute.]

    That is disgraceful! How on earth to kids or their families come up with those sums of money.

    Then there will be a call that we have no tradesmen – stupidity.

    Should add that I was the President of the local TAFE committee and we were shut down when the Libs took office in the early nineties.

    And wealthy women will get a huge sum of money for having a child.

    Unbloody believable!

  19. Hooray!

    [The proposal to develop a 180 million tonne per annum coal export facility at Dudgeon Point in Queensland has been cancelled.

    Dudgeon Point is one of a number of multi-billion dollar Queensland coal export terminal proposals that have been relinquished over the last two years. This highlights the rapid deterioration in the global coal industry prospects, with key turning points this last month by China’s President Xi Jinping’s call for an “energy revolution” and President Obama’s “Clean Power Plan”.]

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/massive-australia-coal-project-dumped-in-face-of-china-energy-revolution-73096

  20. [‘You can safely assume you’ve created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.]

  21. Poroti

    It’s ridiculous.

    Didn’t they jail Galileo for discovering the planet orbited the sun? Poor bloke, he should’ve zipped.

  22. 511 Psyclaw. You would have to think some of these pentacostal and other maddies actually think global warming is God’s work towards the big fiery bang,

    They have been predicting the end of the world and lifting of the faithful to heaven or where-ever for years now without success.

  23. [491
    dave
    Posted Sunday, June 22, 2014 at 5:52 pm | PERMALINK
    That phone hacking jury in the UK is taking its time.]

    They got the weekend off.

    The longer they are out the more likely a conviction.

  24. The Buddhists rulers in Sri Lanka re certainly not a nice bunch. The previous Tibetan overlords were nothing to write home about either. Organised religion is nothing but a vehicle for achieving and maintaining power, although some do take the spiritual side seriously.

  25. Bw

    I hadn’t realised until a couple of days ago that the Durand Line had so many twists and turns it it.

    The colonists usually just drew straight lines when dividing somewhere up.

  26. [WeWantPaul

    Religions are made up of people, and people are fallible.

    Your contention seems to be that any criticism of religion = religious hatred.

    That’s scarcely a reasonable view.]

    You make two points for me. Firstly many here seem eager, no desperate to blame the religion for the failing of the humans that follow that religion.

    Secondly both in matters of institutional organisations and in many matters of faith it is possible to have intelligent, respectful discussion and different points of view. For example I can believe that the Church of Rome’s ban on contraception is not theologically sound and has some very negative social outcomes in certain communities.

    We don’t have a lot of that respectful intelligent discussion here, there is however a lot of intolerant irrational faith bashing. The first probably should be on a different blog, the second shouldn’t be on a blog anywhere.

  27. Re WWP @520: LoL so we an add hate of Buddism here as well.

    No. Buddhism preaches reverence for all life, not just human.

    But Buddhists, like Christians, Muslims and other believers and non believers sometimes do bad things. Belief does not seem to act as a constraint on bad behaviour, especially for those who seek position, wealth and power.

  28. CTar1

    [The colonists usually just drew straight lines when dividing somewhere up.]

    The Port had flowed freely that night.

  29. http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/06/us-healthcare-most-expensive-and-worst-performing/372828/

    [The nonprofit examined the health systems of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, and it found that the U.S. was last or near-last in measures of health access, efficiency, and equity.]

    Guess which country fits into the *********?

    [The U.S. spends 17.7 percent of GDP on healthcare, much more than all of the other countries, while ********* spends the least—8.9 percent:]

  30. Zoomster

    [I’m not sure why someone would think God would appreciate his gifts being misused in this way.]

    As an omniscient and omnipotent being God has no business being disappointed with what his artefacts do to each other. It’s not as if we can surprise him, for good or ill.

  31. Jeez… I’ve just been trying to read up on the reason Sunni Muslims hate Shiites.

    And I thought Catholics versus Protestants was stupid.

    I guess it just boils down to parents telling their kids who to loathe.

  32. Sir sustainable future @ 435.

    I thought the song you are referring to was called This Town, by a band called The Everys, from SA.

    I was about to post this comment and I thought I’d do a quick google search….

    And after years of looking for it everywhere someone’s stuck a copy of it on youtube:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwUXCqzrggg

  33. [But Buddhists, like Christians, Muslims and other believers and non believers sometimes do bad things. Belief does not seem to act as a constraint on bad behaviour, especially for those who seek position, wealth and power.]

    At an individual level we don’t really know to what extent faith improves life choices and quality of life.

    Large dominant organised religions are bound to attract those who seek position, wealth and power.

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