Seat of the week: Leichhardt

Electorally volatile in recent times, the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt has generally gone the way of the winning party at elections in the modern era, an exception being present incumbent Warren Entsch’s win for the Liberal National Party after he returned from retirement in 2010.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Leichhardt consists of the northernmost part of Queensland, including Cairns at its southern extremity along with Cape York Peninsula and the Torres Strait Islands. Naturally marginal Cairns provides it with about two-thirds of its voters, the remainder coming from conservative-leaning rural areas along the coast immediately to the north, and Labor-voting indigenous communities beyond. The electorate ranks sixth out of the nation’s 150 electorates for the highest proportion of indigenous persons, behind the two Northern Territory electorates, neighbouring Kennedy, Durack in northern Western Australia, and Parkes in interior New South Wales. Another distinguishing features is a large number of voters over 55, reflecting the popularity of Cairns as a retirement haven.

The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, prior to which its area was mostly accommodated by Herbert until 1934 and Kennedy thereafter. Herbert and then Kennedy were in Labor hands from 1928 to 1949, but Leichhardt was narrowly won by the Country Party at its inaugural election, which saw the Menzies government come to power. However, Labor won the seat at the subsequent election in 1951, and it remained in the party fold until David Thomson gained it for the National Country Party amid Labor’s statewide debacle of 1975. Warren Entsch became the seat’s first Liberal member when he unseated Labor’s Peter Dodd with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, polling 31.8% to the Nationals candidate’s 20.4%. Entsch suffered only a 0.5% swing at the 1998 election, compared with a statewide swing of 7.2%, and subsequently built his margin up to double figures with swings of 2.3% in 2001 and 3.6% in 2004.

Entsch’s local popularity was further illustrated when he bowed out temporarily at the 2007 election, Labor gaining the seat in his absence with a towering swing of 14.3%, the second biggest of that election after Forde in Brisbane’s outer south. The result also underscored the local eclipse of the Nationals, whose candidate polled only 4.0%. Incoming Labor member Jim Turnour managed only a single term before falling victim at the 2010 election to the combined impact of a statewide Labor rout, which cost them seven out of their existing 15 Queensland seats, and the return from retirement of Warren Entsch. Labor’s margin of 4.1% was easily accounted for by a swing of 8.6%, to which Entsch added a further 1.2% at the 2013 election.

Warren Entsch came to politics after serving in the Royal Australian Air Force from 1969 to 1978, then working as a maintenance fitter and welder, real estate agent, farmer and grazier and company director. After winning election in 1996 and re-election in 1998, he was promoted to parliamentary secretary but thereafter rose no higher, and went to the back bench upon announcing his retirement citing family reasons in 2006. During his subsequent three-year interregnum he was director of Cairns construction company CEC Group and the Australian Rainforest Foundation, but talk soon emerged of a political comeback, first in relation to the 2009 state election and then for his old seat. With this accomplished he served for a term as the Coalition’s chief whip, before relinquishing the position to Philip Ruddock after the 2013 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Seat of the week: Leichhardt”

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  1. It would be fun to run an IP or user tracker on some of these LSL/Turkey/Crank characters.

    I am not sure if they operate in shift, or they are just a series of marionettes with one master.

    Some of them do write comically, which can be entertaining. But too often it is just pure unadulterated racism or sexism on display. It at least gives an insight into the thinking at play in some sections of the contemporary far-right, which hopefully serves us to call out the less overt varieties you see in official channels.

  2. re Gerard Henderson and his past links
    ________________
    One shouldn’t forget that Henderson was a close mate of and worked for Santamaria in the still extant Nationl Civic Council…a right-wing DLP-type body with all the aims of the DLP also

    Later he left to work on Howard’s staff and has a long link to Abbott

    All part of his endless denigration of whatever he see as “left” in the broad cultural and political mix

  3. Earth atmosphere represents around 3% of the global heat sink.

    The oceans make up most of the rest.

    If the oceans stopped either heating up (they have not) and/or if sea level stopped rising (it has not) then there would be some serious questions to ask about AGW.

  4. Poroti,
    I do vaguely remember “Battle Turkey” – other possibilities include “Cold Turkey” and, more suitably, “Stuffed Turkey”.

  5. deblonay

    An article that the propaganda angle will give you a larf.

    [Russia ‘secretly working with environmentalists to oppose fracking’

    Nato chief, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, says Moscow mounting disinformation campaign to maintain reliance on Russian gas…….He declined to give details of those operations, saying: “That is my interpretation.”]
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/19/russia-secretly-working-with-environmentalists-to-oppose-fracking

  6. So, we have Russia and the US on the same side in Iraq…

    That must be making a certain Bludger’s head explode.

  7. Boerwar

    Not quite. Vlad the Nasty has just said he is maaates with Maliki. Them thar Chechens are Sunni so that makes sense. Of course Maliki being a US shoe horned leader being supported by the Russkiys is a turn up for the books.

  8. p

    Yep. There was a question to Bishop during Insiders this morning, wtte, is it true the US has told al-Maliki, ‘straigten up or ship out’.

    In response, Ms Bishop did high quality diplomatic flubflub, the gist of which was, I believe, ‘Yes, but I would rather not say that’.

  9. p

    We are probably the seventh biggest importer of everything that requires a spanner and a screwdriver to put together.

  10. Things are too quiet. We need a big story to liven interest in politics. C’mon Malcolm…challenge.

    Maybe the Greenie supporters here can say something loony. Wouldn’t be difficult 😀

    By the way, are the Greens still going to support Abbott’s Rolls Royce PPL?

  11. Boerwar

    From CTar1’s link this would explain why ‘Straya is so lurved at the mo.

    [ Australia now buys 10 percent of all U.S. weapons exports.]

  12. Apparently, according to Richo, Turnbull wouldn’t have enough numbers to field a footy team. He thinks Morrison would get the job if the Monkey was put in a zoo.

  13. Boer

    Really you can’t blame the Canadians for not wanting to take action on climate change.

    They’d save a fortune on heating.

  14. Bw

    [is it true the US has told al-Maliki, ‘straigten up or ship out’.]

    I read somewhere in the last few days that the message from the Yanks is that they’ll consider helping when al-Maliki resigns.

  15. Centre

    Scrote’s fellow religionists would be most pleased.

    [The Liberal Party’s state director in NSW, Scott Morrison, is a Hillsong member, as is NSW Liberal Party MP Alan Cadman. Cadman is also a strategist with the Lyons Forum, a group of right-wing Christian MPs

    Pentecostals believe in exorcism, speaking in tongues, faith healing and, in general, they seek supernatural experiences. Many of the pastors of Pentecostal churches make decisions based on visions from God.
    ……Prosperity theology is practised by the bigger Pentecostal churches, including Hillsong, Christian City Church and Paradise. This promotes the idea that wealth and worldly success are signs of God’s favour.]
    http://www.trinityfi.org/press/GodsMillionaires.html

  16. What an absolute disaster the war in Iraq has been.

    Do you think they regret not giving Hans Blix the two more weeks he requested to declare Iraq free from WMDs?

    Bush, Howard and Blair should be tried for war crimes.

  17. CTar1

    Ain’t it grand that we can afford import so many weapons at this time of “budget crisis” whilst demanding that our workforce become the oldest in the world ?

  18. DL @450

    [Sometimes your writings are too verbose for me, but on occasion you do come out with some fantastic pithy lines, which I enjoy.]

    Thanks for the small bouquet. I promise not to let it go to my head. 🙂

  19. [Pentecostals believe in exorcism, speaking in tongues, faith healing and, in general, they seek supernatural experiences. Many of the pastors of Pentecostal churches make decisions based on visions from God.]
    That should preclude one from public office on the grounds of severe psychological illness.

  20. poroti

    The Hillsong church is not far away from where I live. I might check it out one day. I’ll take a monopoly $100 and exchange it when they pass the plate around 😈

    Fair dinkum, donating 10% of your income to the nut cases. They’ll never get mine 😐

  21. poroti

    [This promotes the idea that wealth and worldly success are signs of God’s favour.]

    A perfect religion for capitalists. But mad as snakes. Believe in exorcism aka torture.

  22. For QT. “A question to the Prime Mininster. Would you consider a person who believes in exorcism, speaking in tongues, faith healing and seeks supernatural experiences suitable for employment aa a school chaplain?”

  23. In my idle reading yesterday I read an article by a well considered US Industry expert that the output of ‘fracking’ in the US may only be 10% of what was estimated five years ago.

    I remember thinking back then that the announcement that the US would be self-sufficient was a bit suss.

    Particularly as Israel was saying at around the same time that they had discovered large gas deposits of their coast.

    It seems to me this was a maneuver executed to ‘scare’ the oil producing ME states.

  24. [Many of the pastors of Pentecostal churches make decisions based on visions from God.]

    To my knowledge I’ve never met a pentecostal person, but I thought all religious clergy folk made decisions in this way?

  25. CTar1

    Re fracking . The uber frack me !!! Came from , lordy knows what he is smoking, Secretary General of Nato Anders Fogh Rasmussen

    [Nato boss claims Russia has secretly infiltrated green groups fighting fracking

    I have met allies who can report that Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organisations – environmental organisations working against shale gas – to maintain European dependence on imported Russian gas.]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nato-boss-claims-russia-has-secretly-infiltrated-green-groups-fighting-fracking-9549975.html

  26. I dabbled in Pentecostalism in my youth and have (cough) spoken in tongues.

    Of course, no one who has been ‘born again’ believes me when I say that…

  27. I think Buddhism is about the only religion that does not have a bad name.

    I think they pray to a little fat semi nude bloke. They could do worse 🙂

  28. This is shocking.

    [A certificate 2 in automotive at TAFE has gone from $802 in 2012 to $7,200 now under Newman #auspol #qldpol rt (via @GailHislopALP)]

  29. [I think Buddhism is about the only religion that does not have a bad name.
    ]

    Almost. There was one poster here who asserted, during the NDIS debate, that those with disabilities were “bad” people in a previous life and “deserved” their current fate. Appalling.

    Not sure if this view is widely held among Buddhists or just this insensitive poster.

  30. confessions

    With any ‘movement’, if the instigators are making pots of money out of it, it’s not a religion, it’s a business.

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