The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.
Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.
Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).
zoidlord:
wounded bulls need to go to other professionals: vets.
we only manage wounded humans.
Med school is about $200K for a degree in the US. That’s one reason their medical fees are so high as the doctors have a huge loan to pay back.
@Mod Lib/1
Problem, Liberals send professionals to other countries, do not keep experts locally.
Their doctors don’t need to worry too much about paying back their medical degree loans.
Medicos can make a mint in the states.
Average incomes $300k…..wouldnt take long to pay back $100k debt (average debt of graduating Harvard Med School).
I think it’s cheaper to goto one of the Tokyo Universities.
Troy Bramston @TroyBramston 3m
Tony Abbott, Bill Shorten suffer #Newspoll blow as independents hit high @australian http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/tony-abbott-bill-shorten-suffer-newspoll-blow-as-independents-hit-high/story-fn59nqld-1226956602079 …
Labor and Greens need to learn humour – its one of the best ways to be popular in Australia. Shorten is trying hard to attack Budget. Milne seems very serious about issues. But making a joke of Abbott and Hockey will resonate better with the public.
Abbott and the Libs improved in the Newspoll because Tone was out of the country. Always happens.
That is a remarkably good poll this far down from the budget and with the good news from the budget (improving budgetary outcomes in coming years) yet to come…
Wakefield@8
Absolutely true.
Whitlam destroyed McMahon with humour and ridicule.
Tone and his gang provide such comedic material. The cartoonists are onto it already and it needs to be spread around everywhere.
Mad Lib@10
Well lets see how it goes when it starts to bite shortly.
It got a really rapturous reception from the Quanda audience didn’t it. 👿
zoidlord@7
I have to laugh at the implied description of PUP as a “micro party” there.
Moddy Everything
If the budget was actually an aggressive attempt at bringing spending under control then yes a six point deficit might be an okay position to be but due to the weak effort the government will need to keep the foot down for longer hence its difficult to see a six point deficit as a positive.
These changes seem totally within margin of error except for the satisfaction ratings which appear to be bouncing around a lot…
Perhaps people feel Shorten is not going after Abbott hard enough?
It would be interesting to see reasons for their dissatisfaction with him.
Yes I’m sure improved budget outcomes will be comforting for all those people scraping for money to pay for their health scans and all those under 30s begging on the streets…
[That is a remarkably good poll this …]
ALP 53 : COAL 47
Abbott netsat -31
Shorten netsat -11
PPM Shorten 40: Abbott 37
What would you call ‘bad’?
ET
The polls are solidifying. The budget is bad. Abbott’s approval worse.
No comfort for your lot and they will know it
53-47s a month after the bad news budget is not bad when the LNP could probably get away with 49 and have two slap and tickle budgets to come before the next election.
So the PvO “Yikes!” was just another attempt to drive traffic to the Oz website.
Good to know.
The Budget news will not get better – plenty will get blocked and the effect on spending will be a problem.
Hockey and Abbott are clueless except running the class war argument – good luck with that one.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-missile-defense-20140615-story.html#page=1
[$40-billion missile defense system proves unreliable
David Willman
JUNE 15
………………
The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, or GMD, was supposed to protect Americans against a chilling new threat from “rogue states” such as North Korea and Iran. But a decade after it was declared operational, and after $40 billion in spending, the missile shield cannot be relied on, even in carefully scripted tests that are much less challenging than an actual attack would be, a Los Angeles Times investigation has found.]
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2014/06/16/Obama-Abbott-defence-agreement.aspx
[Obama-Abbott defence agreement: More than meets the eye
16 June 2014 11:49AM
Sam Roggeveen
As I noted last Friday, the media’s coverage of Tony Abbott’s meeting with Barack Obama made it seem a pretty anodyne affair, but there are a couple of reasons to think there might be slightly more to it than that. Both reasons will be encouraging to those who favour an ever tighter Australian embrace of the US alliance, but worrying to those of us who think we ought to have a little more breathing room and the occasional show of independence.]
Ballistic missile defence & US Air Force rotations
Abbott absorbing all the pain and getting dumped before the election for Lord Voldemort is perfectly fine with me……not that I am predicting that, but I have no problems with Abbott’s net sat.
If voters can hardly decide whether or not Shorten would be better than Abbott, I wouldn’t get too cocky about this poll!
The main difference between Abbott and Shorten on Netsat is Shorten has more “unsures” because people don’t know who he is. Given all his negativity, its likely they will skew the same as those who do know him.
Mod Lib a few issues.
1. People know which parties are blocking what in terms of the budget.
2. Both leaders are disliked.
3. Labor after coming back from a major loss, and Coalition Party, from a major seat majority, now has to rely on more Independents to get things done.
Nothing really good about this poll for the liberals.
An example of humour – with the World Cup on – we would wish that Abbott and Hockey would line up for our opponents in Brazil – own goals seem to be their speciality.
Lenore Taylor is on ABC local radio. She is saying a DD may happen despite the polls. She thinks Abbott may be forced to a DD because most of the budget will be blocked making him look weak and ineffectual.
Given all his negativity, its likely they will skew the same as those who do know him.
Is that Tones you are talking about?
I reckon Tones is pretty well known! The trouble is the 90% who know him are giving him a 30% positive and 60% negative rating!
Wakefield@24
I suggest you stick to your day job and leave it to the cartoonists. 😉
Ahhh. It’s the negative bit that takes your focus. Can’t think why…..
how to report one term tone’s terminal popularity and polling Oz style – make it all about Bill Shorten.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/tony-abbott-bill-shorten-suffer-newspoll-blow-as-independents-hit-high/story-fn59nqld-1226956602079#mm-premium
we can be thankful it doesn’t crow about an ‘abbott resurgence’ and greens-labor ‘collapse’ in primary vote. no doubt sheridan is writing that piece right now. I expect much print to follow re: “voters not falling for labor’s negative rhetoric and return the libs or conservative independents”. It is a worry labor is not more in the lead – but abbott left the country and drew attention away from the budget. Labor is not hammering the ‘you can not trust a work abbott or hockey says’ meme that I think they should be trying to entrench with voters – it doesn’t help that shorten sounds so rehearsed – it’s a hard job and he’s doing OK, but does he look prime-ministerial or more like a balding kid pretending?
25
The Coalition celebrated 100 years (to the year) since Joseph Cook became PM be getting elected. Now they can commemorate 100 years since his defeat, at a DD, by loosing a DD.
I reckon Tones is pretty well known!
Actually ML, I think that’s one of the problems. His face is known, but what’s hiding underneath is only now being revealed to the voters … and they are not that happy.
guytaur@25
Hahaha … that will make it a referendum on his budget and he will be smashed.
Bemused – and probably best to avoid AFL jokes at the moment!
The cartoonists are certainly onto them.
Less WORDS MORE ACTION.
CALL A DD.
Wakefield@34
Oh really?
I have always been of the opinion that the AFL was a joke.
Goodnight
My aggregate is at 53.9 to Labor at present. It would have finished last week at 53.8 but back-including the rogue Morgan drives last week’s final reading up to 54.9. I’ve had to make some changes to deal with Morgan releasing weekly samples (don’t know if they intend to do this often). Also the rogue has caused my estimate of Morgan’s house effect to increase to 1.5% (and that’s for last-election preferences, respondent-allocated would be higher.)
Some late posts on the last thread –
badcat
{These engines are worth “thousands” today with enthusiasts }
As poroti suggests, the Ground Crew had no end of fun with Robert about the new Mustang.
The A/C were owned by them, so a pilot taking one out, getting hit by some ‘flack’ in Nth Italy and then indulging in two power dives chasing German M-110′s and then dipping the new Mustang in a lake after it developed some ‘wriggles’ (i.e. the wings were about to come off) was not a concept that appealed to the Air-frame guys.
The R-R bit was still working until he hit the water.
After that it was a swim job.
shellbell
Got 1c a can at the recyclers.
Practicing lawyers will do anything for money!
Australian Universities already charge enough, they are nearly at that point of being over priced.
Paying unit fees then textbooks then student amendy fees then other fees on top.
Basically our universities need to stop increasing fees and start to bring their own cost under control.
Everything
Why do you like the budget?
Do you hate science?
Do you love Christian Chaplains?
You don’t want to use an ETS to combat climate change?
Seriously, where is the good in this budget?
You like making students pay more, when we all got through for reduced costs? That’s simply selfishness.
Why is Abbott talking down Iraq?
[Tony Abbott has warned that Iraq could become a terrorist state, as Australia continues talks with the US on how to handle escalating tensions in the country.
Asked about the violence in Iraq’s north, the prime minister told parliament there was already a humanitarian and security crisis in Iraq as the insurgent group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis) took control of parts of the north and central Iraq over three days.]
We know it’s really going gangbusters coz Psephos told us it was, and they held those successful elections a couple of weeks back and that means it must be going well.
Diogenes@43
Diogenes… you are worse than me. 👿
@MB/41
It’s usually Administration (i.e. overhead costs) costs that are the problem (costs within Universities) that drive up the costs of uni fees.
e.g.
http://theconversation.com/reform-australian-universities-by-cutting-their-bureaucracies-12781
Oxford University @UniofOxford 1m
Half of the world’s poor are classed as ‘destitute’ by researchers measuring life’s deprivations rather than income http://tinyurl.com/oabymug
Poor pay most tax in UK:
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jun/16/british-public-wrong-rich-poor-tax-research
“The poorest 10% of households pay eight percentage points more of their income in all taxes than the richest – 43% compared to 35%, according to a report from the Equality Trust.”
Yes, it’s true, us poor people pay more in tax than the rich do, this additional research just further confirms it.
Full Newspoll Table
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/06/16/1226956/629419-140617newspoll.pdf
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/leaders-lagging-in-voter-appeal-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226956663504#
[Leaders lagging in voter appeal: Newspoll
PHILLIP HUDSON The Australian June 17, 2014 12:00AM
TONY Abbott and Bill Shorten are more unpopular today than they were before the budget as voter support for independents and micro-parties has climbed to a record high.
The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, also reveals the immediate post-budget surge in support for the Opposition Leader has not been sustained.
But the government continues to suffer from the poor response to its first budget. Despite a tiny improvement, it significantly trails Labor in two-party terms by 47 per cent to 53 per cent — almost the reverse of the election result nine months ago.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/electorate-casts-a-pox-on-both-houses/story-fnmnl1y0-1226956637565#
[Electorate casts a pox on both houses
PHILLIP HUDSON, COMMENT The Australian
June 17, 2014 12:00AM
Immediately after the worst-received budget in 20 years voters marked down Tony Abbott and delivered a surge in support for Bill Shorten. But a month on, voters don’t appear to like what the Labor leader is saying either. Shorten’s record high satisfaction is now a record high dissatisfaction. His shock 10-point lead as better PM is almost gone.
The Opposition Leader has relentlessly blasted the unfair budget but has offered no alternative. Voters have seen only a public slanging match about fairness and deficits and don’t appear to endorse any of the participants.]
shorten is about on par with crean – lacklustre – negative logic might say this is what labor needs to be for while – negative field – no charismatic leader – still think bloody caucus made mistake
labor should be highwater mark of popularity – shorten is no campaigner no public speaker and no intellectual. indeed what exactly is he doing there. now we have two party leaders out of their depth. just great
Joe Hockey deviding Australia:
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/06/16/lifters-loafers-joe-hockey-dividing-australia/
“Hockey has managed to redefine the nation’s notion of unfair. Unfair is no longer the person with a disability, the chronically unemployed or the single mother who struggles to pay the gas bill.”