Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.
Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.
In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.
As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.
UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.
Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.
@WhiteHouse: RT to spread the word: President Obama just took a big step to #ActOnClimate and protect our health. http://t.co/qu55I4ihhT
So The Oz judges the two week Budget sell a failure.
When the LNPs staunchest media defender makes this kind of assertion you know they are in deep, deep poo.
On the same day, the first simmering leadership tension with the Bolt-Turnbull imbroglio.
And since my last post 15 minutes ago another 8,000 views of the Tony Abbott Last Week Tonight video and a further 1,000 Facebook shares.
A tidal wave of political dissent or just social media chatter?
In PR terms this LNP Government is on the ropes, its credibility in tatters.
And what gaffes lie in store with Tone’s excellent D-Day adventure in Europe and America?
Taylormade
What prediction?
[julianburnside @JulianBurnside 1h
Why do women get interrupted so often on #qanda ?]
1. The show persists with nuff nuff anti women Liberal panelists.
2. Tony Jones hasn’t learned basic manners?
Mod
[I said earlier, just after the budget, that I thought they had gone too far.]
Politically or have they even passed your values?
confessions
That includes the all woman panel they had
Did Bernardi and Dean get interrupted or was it just the female panelists?
[And since my last post 15 minutes ago another 8,000 views of the Tony Abbott Last Week Tonight video and a further 1,000 Facebook shares.]
I’ve since had 105 likes and 48 shares, which makes that video the most popular of all the videos I’ve ever posted on Facebook. 🙂
Have they even passed my values?
Hmmmm…..this seems to imply that I have a barren set of values and the Abbott government has gone so far as to manage to snake its way beneath “even” my depths.
Would that be a correct interpretation?
guytaur:
I’ve often remarked of Jones’ continued interrupting of his guests on Qanda. It is always worse when he invites strident Liberals and their apologists onto the program, as we saw tonight.
Obama seeks 30% cut in US CO2 by 2030. Using executive powers under the 1970 Clean Air Act,so Congress will have a tough time stuffing this up.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/obama-to-seek-30-per-cent-cut-in-carbon-emissions-20140602-zrulr.html
Once again, our right wingers find themselves on the loser end of history. A temproary win here’s in Nowheresville is quickly quashed by massive movement elsewhere.
Just to be clear: Our ‘great and powerful friends’ are telling your credos to crawl away and die with the other redundant delusions held by the enemies of reason and sat cience. Like witch burning, flat-earthism, and the idea women shouldnt vote or be educated.
confessions
I am not a the greatest fan of Virginia Trioli but I thought she did a better job of hosting.
Ill enjoy hearing about Obama filling Abbott in on the new Carbon reduction plans at their upcoming meeting. :p
Haha, no. Don’t be so paranoid. I’m just going off the metaphor, one of motion, implied by “far”. I don’t even know what your values are on this. There’s no subtext.
I’m just wondering if you think they’ve made a political mistake – e.g. you agree with the changes but think they won’t get past the electorate – or whether the changes are in and of themselves wrong/incorrect (to some degree).
And another 5,000 views and 1,000 Facebook shares of Tony Abbott Last Week Tonight video in the last five minutes.
A prime time American comedy show taking the piss out of the Oz PM will no doubt get some airplay in Oz MSM tomorrow?
guytaur:
Yes, I thought so too.
[The overblown rhetoric about it being the end of the University sector is a bit ridiculous, particularly coming from ALP tragics, given the ALP introduced (or re-introduced to be precise) charges to go to Uni.]
Which was based on very careful modelling to ensure that the implementation of HECS didn’t result in people from low socioeconomic backgrounds giving up uni.
Where is the government’s modelling?
Good to see you’re onto the Ipsos polls William. Hardly heard about them in the media
King Juan carlos abdicates
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27662351
When will Her Madge get the hint?
The word “even” is there because I’m sure you said you agree with the general direction of the budget. So have they overshot where you stand on this particular issue?
[Did Bernardi and Dean get interrupted or was it just the female panelists?]
Who cares if Bernardi got interrupted. The guy is a complete fruit loop.
Good night
Whether I think you’re standing in a bog or othwerise is a different conversation ;).
I don’t think it is sustainable to have tertiary education open to everyone, rather than being for the elite, and then simultaneously saying that we will make it all free (i.e. the taxpayer will pay for it as nothing is free). In that context, i.e. the real world, I think we have to allow increased funding into Universities (in particular in the tertiary sector). Either that comes from the taxpayer, the student or philanthropy. The Australian philanthropists are skinflints compared with the USA, the taxpayer is skint at the moment, and so we have no choice but ask the student to pay more.
Given the student doesn’t need to pay anything back until they reach near median incomes, I don’t think it is too unfair.
In the idealistic magic pudding world, I would like all education and all health to be free for everyone for all time. However, I would also like an everlasting gobstopper and have come to terms with not getting that too.
Fess 158, similar experience on my Facebook page….
The current tally for the Tony Abbott piss take on American TV at 11.40 p.m on 2 June 2014 is 275K views, 29K Facebook shares and 3,117 tweets.
Wonder what it will be at this time tomorrow night?
[167
ShowsOn
…the implementation of HECS didn’t result in people from low socioeconomic backgrounds giving up uni.
Where is the government’s modelling?]
The LNP don’t need modelling. Given the opportunity, they will just go on making access to education more and more expensive until they say a sufficient drop in participation. They want to to discourage learning, skills formation, scholarship and intellectual endeavour of all kinds because they think we are useless.
[DisplayName
Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:41 pm | PERMALINK
Whether I think you’re standing in a bog or othwerise is a different conversation]
Twas just a gentle reminder of our conversation last night!
🙂
So you think they’ve made a political mistake, then? They’re in the right place or going in the right direction, but too hard or too fast and before they’ve convinced Australians that’s where they should be?
[I don’t think it is sustainable to have tertiary education open to everyone]
Well it isn’t you block head!
Universities keep about 60% of the populace out of university using ENTRANCE SCORES!
That is a legitimate way to keep people out. What shouldn’t be a legitimate way to keep people out is by fees that are so high people no longer way to enrol because of the enormous debts they will incur.
[http://www.theage.com.au/world/obama-to-seek-30-per-cent-cut-in-carbon-emissions-20140602-zrulr.html]
this is fantastic news. Our pissant political pygmies are irrelevant in the face of this and the likelihood china will match this sort of target at 2015 climate talks. Can any of the investors in australian coal spell the words ‘stranded assets’. Make sure your super fund divests from coal or your retirement savings will follow the same terminal trend of abbott’s popularity.
re: abbott heading overseas – I think his popularity will go up provided his media minders ensure he only talsk to his friends, and he doesn’t make a fool of himself (so there’s a reasonable chance his popularity will go down). would love to see Obama publicly call him on his crap climate science and policy stances when they meet. better still – not to meet, but publicly send him some remedial science and economics teachers/experts to explain it to him. I’d love to see him go head to head with Hansen or McKibben and try to run his ‘The science isn’t as settled as the extreme green alarmists say….’ crap.
Everything –
Are you suggesting that higher education is currently “free” to students?
ET
[That lady had every right to ask her question.]
Of course she did, much as everyone has the right to fart in a lift. That doesn’t mean someone can’t point out that the person has stunk up the place.
[If she was making incorrect assumptions, point that out. What were they in your view?]
Well you could try extracting that from the post to which you initially responded.
Bernardi does not have a higher level brain. He is like a spider I saw last week on an Attenborough doco. This trapdoor spider digs a hole, puts a lid on it, and sits inside the hole until it feels hungry and then traps an innocent bug. It lives down there in that dark hole for twenty years, doing the same thing every day of its life.
Rossmore:
I’m reminded of the Col Hadfield space odyssey clip. I first posted it here of a morning Australian time and it had hardly any views. By the time daybreak crept across the globe its views went into the thousands, and eventually the millions.
[174
Everything…
…the taxpayer is skint at the moment]
This is a fallacy. There is no budget crisis – at least, there wasn’t until Abbott and Hockey got their hands on it – and no justification at all for reducing investment in education.
By reducing investment in education, the LNP are pre-ordering lower future productivity, lower future incomes, fewer jobs and a less dynamic economy. They are choosing a less-skilled and less-productive economy.
Think of it another way. If spending less on education created a stronger economy, Somalia – where they spend next to nothing on education – would be the world’s economic powerhouse.
Rossmore@175
But where are the viewers? Is he a big sensation in the US or are they mainly Australian?
The answer to that makes a big difference in the impact here.
[briefly
Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:50 pm | PERMALINK
174
Everything…
…the taxpayer is skint at the moment
This is a fallacy. There is no budget crisis – at least, there wasn’t until Abbott and Hockey got their hands on it – and no justification at all for reducing investment in education.
By reducing investment in education,]
What is the reduction in the investment in education?
Showson,
What, any smart peasant’s kid could pass an university entrance test. These tests are useless at keeping the smell of the barn out of the halls of elites, er, learning.
For goodness sake man, won’t you think of the rich bastards’ children?
[King Juan carlos abdicates
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27662351
When will Her Madge get the hint?]
yes, can’t you imagine charles reading from the Times: “Oh look mother, the King of Spain has abdicated, just as did that nice Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands – I hear she’s loving being out of the limelight. Hmm, says here he’s 5 years younger than you mother……..”
bemused – as Oliver’s show is on HBO and buried in the middle of the night, it’s unlikely it’s US viewers flocking to the clip. Not right now, anyway.
John Oliver is a former Daily Show correspondent and he’s somewhat well known, but if you were doing a ranking of the top talk show hosts, he’d be lucky to break top 20. And there might not be 20 talk show hosts in the US…
[ I have a barren set of values and the Abbott government has gone so far as to manage to snake its way beneath “even” my depths.
Would that be a correct interpretation? ]
Hang on?? Mod Lib actually being correct about something?? Write this date down people. 🙂
Looks like iview published voting intentions for the fortnights of April 14 (50-50), April 28 (51.5-48.5), May 13 (53-47) but their latest release does not give a result for May 27.
Official …The Tony Abbot Last Week Tonight video is tomorrows main story in the Oz MSM …
Key words … lambasted, roasted, mocked
Drum roll….
http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/tony-abbott-lambasted-on-us-tv-show-last-week-tonight-with-john-oliver/story-e6frfmyi-1226940367958
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/tony-abbott-roasted-by-john-oliver-on-hbo-show-last-week-tonight-20140602-zrvl1.html
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-based-english-comic-john-oliver-has-just-let-rip-on-australian-pm-tony-abbott-2014-6
http://theweek.com/article/index/262476/john-oliver-introduces-america-to-australias-maladroit-prime-minister-tony-abbott#axzz33USTSwWC
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/entertainment/2014/06/02/17/59/prime-minister-tony-abbott-mocked-on-us-talk-show
Fran Barlow 115
‘Really, that silly woman at the end who suggested that Abbott and Hockey were our parents and those of us objecting to the budget were naughty children ought to have been ridiculed, but who on the panel was going to do that? Not Ms King and not even Mr Krauss.’
Fran, I managed a wink.
Bemused 186 … I suspect the views are mainly from Oz based on the media links in my post at 193…
[187
Everything]
The Commonwealth will lower its investment in education across the board, ranging from support for pre-primary education right through primary, secondary and tertiary education to post-graduate levels and will drive up the costs to those who wish to stay in education.
Their purpose is very clear: they intend to reduce participation in education, drive down demand for educational services and shrink the educational levels of the workforce. This is a massive false economy. It will only shrink the future economy, re-stratify the labour market, destroy social and economic mobility, stultify personal ambition and undermine the whole-of-life productivity of millions of workers.
It is a most dim-witted labour force, productivity and income policy.
But then, it should come as no surprise, because the LNP have form on these things, and as we know… “Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal Government”.
[ What is the reduction in the investment in education? ]
That would be the funding cuts in this budget that mean Universities are looking at having to raise fees by up to %114 in some courses to simply keep actual funding static (if they get through the Senate).
Mod, i know you see it as being your role to be the idiot troll, but you are getting a tad boring when you dont keep up with the actual info that is out there on the subjects you attempt to discuss and just recycle Liberal spin. 🙁
Big call, but I cant see Abbott recovering from this. He’s gorn IMHO.
Rossmore@193
Well not exactly. It is buried away in the entertainment section. Hardly front page treatment.
[What is the reduction in the investment in education?]
You really are a dumb muthafarquer