Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research records a somewhat less allergic reaction to the budget than the other pollsters, and shows little change on voting intention.

Essential Research displays its trademark stability this week by failing to record the big shift evident from the other pollsters, with two-party preferred steady at 52-48 and Labor up only one point on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens down one to 8% and Palmer United steady on 5%. The results on the budget are also somewhat less spectacular than those seen elsewhere, with 30% approval and 52% disapproval, and 40% deeming it good for the economy overall against 32% for bad – quite a bit different from the 39% and 48% registered by Newspoll. The budget was deemed bad for working people by 59% and good by 14%; bad for those on low incomes by 66% and good by 11%; bad for families by 62% and good by 11%; bad for older Australians by 66% and good by 10%; bad for younger Australians by 55% and good by 16%; but good for people who well off by 45% and bad by 16%.

Response was also sought in relation to particular budget measures, of which the least popular was the raise in the pension age (61% opposition, 17% support), followed by deregulation of university fees (58% opposition, 17% support). Opinion was evenly balanced on making Newstart recipients wait six months (41% opposition, 39% support), while there was a net positive response to making graduates pay HELP loans more quickly (53% support, 23% opposition). Cuts to foreign aid had 64% supportive and 13% opposed, while those to the ABC had 27% supportive and 41% opposed. Fifty-six per cent believed there was a “budget emergency” against 32% who did not, but only 24% believed the budget addressed it, against 56% who did not.

The other relative latecomer to the budget poll party was yesterday’s fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS result, which was more in line with other polls in having Labor up 1.5% to 38.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 35%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer up a point to 6.5%. Whereas Morgan polls usually combine two weekends of polling, this one was entirely from Saturday and Saturday, so all the responses are post-budget and the sample is somewhat smaller than usual. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was up from 53.5-46.5 to 56.5-43.5 on 2013 election preferences, and 55-45 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,395 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 28
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  1. Socrates

    [calling Tony Abbott a fireman is as ironic as calling Scott Morrison a Minister for Immigration,]
    And back in JWH’s day Iron Bar Tuckey being Minister for Forestry.

  2. [Isn’t the offender in jail?]

    The teacher was convicted. I have no idea whether that person is in jail or not.

    My comment was about the circumstances which gave rise to that person being allowed to continue in a position where they could continue to abuse children. That needs to change if we’re going to prevent abuse into the future.

    And just FYI, your comments on the RC are always so defensive and lashing out at any comments that show sympathy to survivors and anger at the perpetrators that anyone would be forgiven for taking you as an apologist for institutional child abuse.

    Personally I’d like to think you aren’t that person, so you may wish to consider dialing back your defensiveness and not reacting to instinctively to anyone who (rightly) calls out the appalling abuse of defenceless people.

  3. [If the scholarship was kept secret even from many senior staff, who leaked fhis to coincide wifh fhe uni student rallies?]

    I’d love to know as well, because it certainly does seem to be a targetted leak designed to cause Abbott grief.

  4. I heard Dutton on the radio this evening when he was challenged over the claim of 11 GP visits per year where the actual figures show 5.6 visits per year per person. He said WTTE that you can take any figure you like average, mean, take your pick.
    I kid you not.

  5. ajm@1187

    We seem to be getting a steady flow of “dirt” on Abbott which appears, given the nature of the matters, more likely to have come from his own side of politics rather than the Labor side.

    Who is trying to undermine him? Is the fix in?

    Well this was tweeted earlier:

    TiPoole ‏@tip66 2h

    It’s on. “@mrgrumpystephen: #libspill”
    Expand

  7. I was hoping Abbott would stagger through till 2016, despised and ineffectual, but he really seems to be doing his best to bring the axe down on himself much earlier than that. Unfortunately that would give the coalition gangsters a chance to appear to have a fresh start.

  9. After failing to disclose a gift of the $2,800 vintage, New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell quit last month.

    ICAC were fishing with Hartcher as to whether he was the source of the earlier leaks about the bottle of Grange.

    ICAC presumably have some reason to suspect that Hartcher, or someone close to that circle of rightwing Liberal factional players, could have been actively trying to bring down O’Farrell.

    That was part of my tin-foil hat leaning theories at the time, but it seems ICAC, at least, suspect it has more than a bit of substance.

    If they leaked the existence of the bottle of Grange to the journalist at the time, what are the chances that O’Farrell being stitched up (of course all from his own words and actions, but still) by NdG a few months down the track was completely unconnected?

  10. From the Fairfax account of Ms Abbott’s scholarship

    [Mr Taylor said he could not recall ever discussing ‘‘anything of substance on higher education policy’’ with Mr Abbott]

    That is a virtual admission that such was discussed.

    The lawyer has left a back door escape phrase ‘of substance’ so that if, later, discussions are revealed they can be denied as irrelevant because they fail the self described ‘of substance’ test.
    Lawyer trick.

  11. 1154
    confessions

    These accounts are singularly harrowing. I think we’re all disfigured in some way by the brutality and the cowardice.

    I’ve been thinking about this in connection with the Commonwealth’s Chaplaincy program. It’s just too sick to speculate about, but really, how can it be that taxpayers’ money is used to send clerics into schools. It is foolish, risky, perverse…..

  13. There is definitely a “blood in the water” vibe to the government and Abbott at the moment. That doesn’t mean Abbott is done for, but it would certainly be the right time to pile on the pressure if someone was going to make a move on the leadership.

    Regardless, the LNP will be hunting for a circuit-breaking event (shiny thing) to distract the media now. Some dirt on Shorten or the ALP would be great, but failing that leadershit could certainly be tempting for some.

  14. [My comment was about the circumstances which gave rise to that person being allowed to continue in a position where they could continue to abuse children. That needs to change if we’re going to prevent abuse into the future.
    ]

    Those people are in front of a RC so they aren’t getting away with anything either.

    Thanks for the advice – I have only been involved with one institution who tried to cover up systematic abuse by an offender and FYI I was one of the guys fighting the institution and calling out those who were failing – so your guess that I was on the other side is about as wrong as you usually are with your wild ill considered judgements and demands in this complex area.

  15. [crikey whitey
    Posted Wednesday, May 21, 2014 at 8:45 pm | PERMALINK
    I really think Rummel needs to comment, at this point.

    Oh, I think I may have seen something about reduction of funds to fireys, whilst we await Rummel’s further capitulation.

    Not that I mind Rummel’s resort to commonsense and self interest as concerns his voting intention.]

    What am I commenting on?

  18. briefly:

    Yes, the school chaplaincy program immediately draws parallels with that case I linked to, esp if in today’s era there isn’t a clear procedural policy in schools about how to handle accusations of abuse or inappropriate conduct.

  20. [1204
    BK

    I heard Dutton on the radio this evening when he was challenged over the claim of 11 GP visits per year where the actual figures show 5.6 visits per year per person. He said WTTE that you can take any figure you like average, mean, take your pick.
    I kid you not.]

    They just fabricate any ole rubbish. It makes no difference to them. Facts are not important.

  21. Don’t know that it would be wise for the ALP to engage in any discussions on the scholarship issue.

    Keep the focus on the budget and leave the hunting to others.

  22. [1218
    confessions

    briefly:

    Yes, the school chaplaincy program immediately draws parallels with that case I linked to, esp if in today’s era there isn’t a clear procedural policy in schools about how to handle accusations of abuse or inappropriate conduct.]

    I think there should be a legal challenge to this program. If I had the money, I’d do it myself. There is absolutely no defensible case for the program. Cosmology is not part of the national curriculum.

  23. Shorten and other senior figures shouldn’t touch the scholarship issue with a barge pole but assign an ambitious headkicker to run with it

  24. [1221
    Dee

    Don’t know that it would be wise for the ALP to engage in any discussions on the scholarship issue.

    Keep the focus on the budget and leave the hunting to others.]

    We’ve had watergate, utegate and battgate….surely we can have College Gate.

  27. victoria:

    I don’t imagine ICAC would leak to the media (still think one of Tone’s own mob did that), but if they’re sniffing out Liberal corruption then a scholarship to the federal Liberal leader’s daughter which has gone undeclared might just pique its interest.

  30. 1224

    I would have though that “scholarship” would be the word the dreadful “-gate” suffix* is added to.

    *I really hate that suffix. I condemn Nixon for causing that. Why could he not have a less-suffixable hotel bugled?

  31. [1227
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, May 21, 2014 at 9:26 pm | PERMALINK
    [victoria:

    I don’t imagine ICAC would leak to the media (still think one of Tone’s own mob did that), but if they’re sniffing out Liberal corruption then a scholarship to the federal Liberal leader’s daughter which has gone undeclared might just pique its interest.]

    No for the federal issue raised last night and the act has to be illegal.

  32. Some background on Les Taylor

    Les Taylor – Solicitor, Director, Arab Bank Australia Limited and Chairman, Whitehouse Institute of Design

    [Les Taylor was appointed Chief Solicitor and General Counsel of the Commonwealth Bank Group in 1989, and has been actively involved in the Corporate Lawyers Association, the Banking Law Association and has served on various committees established by the Law Society of New South Wales. He co-ordinates a “General Counsel Roundtable” for the General Counsels of the top 100 corporations in Australia or overseas equivalents, under the auspices of the Corporate Lawyers Association.]

    http://www.acla.com.au/conferences/bios-2/les-taylor

  33. briefly:

    It goes without saying that I’m on board for abolishing the numpty chaplaincy program. If individual schools feel the need for such a service then let them fund raise in order to finance it.

  34. I think Abbott should be asked in Parliament why he did not show the scholarship or gift on the Register? He should be asked if had any part in securing it or in encouraging his daughter to accept it? He should be asked if the college has received any benefit from the Commonwealth and if he had any part in approving any such benefit.

    Abbott is a greedy, scrounging rat. He should be accountable, like any other MP.

  35. [We’ve had watergate, utegate and battgate….surely we can have College Gate.]

    😀

    No doubt it stinks,just hoping the ALP stay right out of it.

  36. [They just fabricate any ole rubbish. It makes no difference to them. Facts are not important.]

    This is an issue that Labor really need to keep at the centre of the debate: The increasing disconnect from, and indeed utter contempt for, basic facts, that is rapidly infesting conservative politics.

    It is not a political thing, it is a survival thing. No individual or society is going to last long denying basic reality.

  38. I think there should be a legal challenge to this program.

    The guy in Queensland successfully challenged the program once already and has a 2nd challenge in front of the High Court as we speak I believe.

    The sad part is the successful first challenge (while the ALP were in power) was successful because of the lack of explicit legislation (at the time) outlining how the money was to be used. As I understand it the s116 aspects were challenged as well, but the High Court said there was nothing wrong there.

    I don’t know if that judgment relied at all on the fact that the ALP had expanded the program to secular counselors or what the impact of restoring enforcing religious affiliation might have, but the Guardian article on this basically implied that s116 appeared to be almost completely toothless in terms of preventing these kinds of religious programs being run by the Federal government.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/08/school-chaplains-challenge-reveals-australias-weak-religious-freedoms

    In addition to the Commonwealth’s spending power, Williams argued in his first appearance that the national school chaplaincy programme was invalid because it breached section 116 of the constitution, which in part mandates that “no religious test shall be required as a qualification for any office or public trust under the Commonwealth.”

    The argument met the same fate as all three previous attempts to invoke section 116

  39. shellbell:

    Wev, and trust you lawyer mob to rain on a happy parade. 🙂

    I’d be totally okay with Abbott being forced to answer questions about this in QT. Even better if ICAC decided to look into this.

  41. [The sad part is the successful first challenge (while the ALP were in power) was successful because of the lack of explicit legislation (at the time) outlining how the money was to be used. As I understand it the s116 aspects were challenged as well, but the High Court said there was nothing wrong there.]

    Sadder part is ALP government legitimised the program after the High Court decision

  43. briefly and confessions
    In case you missed it this morning here is the body of the email I sent to Pyne.
    [Could you please advise precisely what eligibility criteria will be put in place to assure the credentials of complying chaplains?
    Will there be a list of acceptable religious bodies and will it be available to the public?]

  44. briefly:

    [I think Abbott should be asked in Parliament why he did not show the scholarship or gift on the Register? He should be asked if had any part in securing it or in encouraging his daughter to accept it? He should be asked if the college has received any benefit from the Commonwealth and if he had any part in approving any such benefit.]

    Once again, you and me: same page. I completely agree.

  46. When I was doing chaplaincy programs (or whatever it was called back then, during Primary School), many kids hated it.

    And found it a waste of time, when we could be doing school work.

    And yes, we were that type of kids.

  48. Briefly

    [Thanks Dee. He should be congratulated.]
    Most welcome!

    He’s a local and believe me Toowoomba is not only blue ribbon tory, it’s also the religious capital of Queensland.

    So, this chap has a lot of guts!

    He has a website with songs etc dispelling the myth of religion.

  49. With his daughters being such brilliant TAFE students and winning $60,000 scholarships and all, Why did Tony have to borrow $700,000 to pay for their education?

    Can he produce receipts?

  50. [1243
    BK

    briefly and confessions
    In case you missed it this morning here is the body of the email I sent to Pyne.

    Could you please advise precisely what eligibility criteria will be put in place to assure the credentials of complying chaplains?
    Will there be a list of acceptable religious bodies and will it be available to the public?]

    Thanks BK. Doubtless he will ignore the letter. He should also be asked if he and the PM will be taking personal responsibility should any of the contracting chaplains carry out any unlawful acts in the course of their clerical “work” in schools.

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