UPDATE (Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS result sings from the same song sheet, with Labor up 1.5% to 38.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 35%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer up a point to 6.5%. Whereas Morgan polls usually combine two weekends of polling, this one is entirely from Saturday and Saturday, so all the responses are post-budget and the sample is somewhat smaller than usual. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead is up from 53.5-46.5 to 56.5-43.5 on 2013 election preferences, and 55-45 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.
After a relatively mild result from yesterday’s Galaxy poll, in which the government may have benefited slightly from an earlier polling period (Wednesday to Friday, the budget having been brought down on Tuesday night), two big name pollsters deliver horror results for the Coalition:
• Newspoll, conducted from Friday to Sunday, has Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45, from primary votes of 38% for Labor (up four), 36% for the Coalition (down two), 11% for the Greens (down three) and 15% for others (up one). Worse still for the Coalition are the leadership ratings, which have Tony Abbott down five on approval to 30% and up four on disapproval to 60%, while Bill Shorten leaps seven points on approval to 42% and drops two on disapproval to 39%. Shorten has opened up a big lead of 44-34 as preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 40-38 a fortnight ago. The Australian’s report here.
• Even worse for the Coalition is the monthly Nielsen result in the Fairfax papers. Conducted from Thursday to Saturday, it shows Labor’s lead out to 56-44 from 52-48 a month ago. The primary votes are 40% for Labor (up six), 35% for the Coalition (down five), 14% for the Greens (down three from am implausible result last time, but still very strong) and 6% for Palmer United (up two). Tony Abbott sinks nine points on approval to 34% and adds twelve on disapproval to 62%, whereas Bill Shorten is up four to 47% and down two to 39%, and shoots to a 51-40 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 45-44 last time.
The leadership ratings in particular invite comparison with Julia Gillard’s low points. While Abbott still has a way to go before matching the worst of Gillard’s ratings in Newspoll, his present net approval rating of 28% in Nielsen was exceeded by Gillard on only two occasions, in September and October of 2011, and equalled in July 2011. Gillard’s final result before she lost the leadership in June 2013 was 36% approval and 61% disapproval. Abbott himself scored fractionally worse figures as Opposition Leader in December 2012, of 34% approval and 63% disapproval.
Both pollsters also have results gauging reaction to the budget, with Nielsen finding 63% considering it unfair against 33% for fair. The deficit levy finds support, with 50% in favour and 37% against, but there’s a surprisingly narrow majority of 49% to 46% in favour of abolishing the carbon tax. The poll finds predictably strong opposition to the notion of increasing the GST, with 30% for and 66% against.
Newspoll’s results on budget reaction are particularly illuminating, as it has been asking the same three questions after every budget since 1988. Forty-eight per cent rate this budget as bad for the economy versus 39% for good, with 4% opting for neither; 69% say it will leave them worse off, compared with just 5% for better off and 20% for neither; and 39% believed that Labor would have done a better job, with 46% saying they wouldn’t have.
The latter result can be put into context with the following chart, showing the positive result minus the negative result for the equivalent question going back to 1988, with Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. This shows that the only budget to record a net result in favour of yes was in 1993, when the Keating government followed its surprise election win by breaking its L-A-W tax cuts promise. As such, the slight net negative result for this budget is an historically weak one for the government – particularly when taking into account an apparent tendency for governments to perform strongly on this measure when newly elected, and decline thereafter. This takes a good deal of gloss off the consolation the Coalition might have taken in the result being better than the last three for the previous government.
The next chart plots the result for each budget on “impact on own financial position” along the x-axis and impact on the economy along the y, with the current result indicated in red. This shows a clear association between the two results, demonstrating that people generally decide whether a budget is good or bad, and deem it equally so for both themselves and the economy. To the limited extent that variability exists, there does appear to be at least some constituency for the view that the pain inflicted in the current budget will be good for the economy – whereas the trendline indicates that the minus 64% rating on own financial position could be expected to associate with 24.5% on the economy, the latter figure in fact comes in at a relatively presentable minus 9%. Nonetheless, the outstanding fact to emerge from the chart is that the budget inhabits a zone of extreme unpopularity with only 1993 to keep it company. The budget the government might have been hoping to emulate, Peter Costello’s cost-cutting debut of 1996, had a plus 37% rating on the economy despite a minus 21% rating on personal financial situation.
Finally, a table showing the net result for all three measures at each budget, with averages by party at the bottom. This shows that despite the current results, Coalition budgets tend to be better received than Labor ones, with the gap being wider on impact on the economy. Partly this is down to historical circumstance – Labor was marked down for the recession-era budgets of the early 1990s, while the Howard government made political hay out of the revenue boom in its later years in office (though obviously not to the extent of saving them from the electoral cycle in 2007). However, it also reflects the tendency for the Coalition to outperform Labor in “best party to manage the economy” polling, a point illustrated by the averages for “would the opposition have delivered a better budget”. For more context on the individual budgets, here’s a very helpful resource from the Sydney Morning Herald.
@139
We already seen Warren Truss in the last couple of days, I think they used up all their cards.
What does Newspoll YIKES mean? Is there one?
Nikki Savva can shove this Neilsen up her Tory quoit and spin.
“@kevinbonham: OK you can all stop handling that #Nielsen with care now. Sounds like #Newspoll is similar. #auspol”
Turnbull has managed to turn probably the most hated Communications Minister ever (Conroy because of Internet filtering) into the most popular (because of FTTP). That’s a singular achievement.
[It has taken Abbott less than a year to record a Nielsen net rating seven points worse than Howard did in his entire career!]
Yes, I laughed watching Abbott during Shorto’s reply,with his “thinker’s” faceon, as if he were some master political strategist.
AS Ive said before, he is in fact just the final phase of the Rudd/Gillard mess. The punters used polls to punish Gillard and restore Rudd, then they used Abbott to get rid of Rudd – and now they’ll destroy Abbott, who theyve always loathed anyway.
Both parties need to look at at what they’re producing as ‘politics’ – its impressing no one anymore.
I think the ALP is ahead because they have democratised considerably with the leadership vote. But they need to go further. The punters are over it.
[Which prominent Coalition front bencher has been barely seen or heard this year?]
He’s not a front bencher, but Brough has been non existent since being elected.
YIKES means that there’s something way out of range that’s likely to have occurred. Mamma mia!
Abbott isn’t a Thatcherite. Apart from social conservatism its hard to see what he believes in apart from his own advancement. He’s a front man, a puppet. Get rid of Abbott and someone worse will take his place, a competent true believer. Still, I’d love to see Abbott depart in disgrace.
Newspoll out any minute now, apparently. Samantha Maiden on Twitter says it “backs Galaxy’s David Briggs view that budget one of worst voter reax in two decades”.
The coalition has swan-dived head first into quicksand….
“@smurray38: “Voters have declared the government’s first budget to be the worst in more than 20 years” #newspoll”
Yes Dave, why Abbott and his advisors think bunkering down and blaming voters’ hearing will help escapes me
Kevin, how come we can’t see Newspoll yet!!!!!!!
Re Melb’s Wednesday Pensioners/Students Rally
11. am . front of Library then to Fed Sq.
________________.
BTW I have an old friend…retired Union organiser who with some othesr similar…has volunteered to help the Rally’s pensioner-organisers and I think it will be quite well organised and hopefully get a big crowd ,with Students too
interesting mix of age groups
The students (who don’t know much really)won’t realise that many of the Oldies were involved ages ago in the anti-war movement and are old hands at all of this
___________________________________
[ Im not sure there’s any coming back from 44-56. ]
What i would be looking for is for the Libs to be consistently behind, over many months. I suspect that is the situation that will pertain for as long as Abbott is PM.
AS far as Abbott kicking up if they try and depose him i’m not so sure. He has always been a good soldier of the party and even if he has been promoted well beyond his competence i think if they do dump him he may go quietly for “health reasons”.
After all, they cant be seen to be “knifing” a 1st term PM elected by the people can they?? 🙂
roger bottomley@153
Insiders is pretty well spent of credibility after today as well.
Take a bow Savva and kelly.
Bushfire Bill.
Must read.
Energy supply deals not always what they seem
Date
May 19, 2014
543 reading now
Michael West
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy-supply-deals-not-always-what-they-seem-20140518-38hus.html#ixzz324NLdoOa
zoidlord@164
Because you are not of the C*B*L (There Is No C*B*L).
(Sorry, old Usenet joke.)
Ok we await Newspoll.
The drumbeat is getting louder and the natives are restless.
“@smurray38: Labor has opened a 10-point lead in two-party terms to be ahead 55 to 45 per cent. #newspoll Primary ALP: 38 Coalition: 36”
Legit?
[@smurray38: “The latest #Newspoll … revealed that Bill Shorten has taken a shock 10-point lead over Tony Abbott as better prime minister”]
The only way they can come back is by bribing the electorate (maybe).
But then, they have same problem as they do with NSW ICAC.
Theyre in quite a pickle Imacca 🙂
All that said, great poll etc, yes: but the most significant thing that happened this week was Howard disavowing Abbott.
He basically came out and said “you should not consider these people my proteges”.
And if 543 are reading that article…..
[No-one will believe anything the Coalition says anymore, good or bad.
Massive trust black hole.]
You’re probably right. I’m just cautious with analyses.
I suspect that this government is either very out-of-touch or they genuinely believe they are in the same position as the Howard government was at some points in the early 2000s and that it will dig itself out the same way.
[@smurray38: “The latest #Newspoll … revealed that Bill Shorten has taken a shock 10-point lead over Tony Abbott as better prime minister”]
Hearing 55-45 from Newspoll on Twitter.
not sure imacca, Abbott is a classic narcissist who would believe he is the ONLY one good enough to lead the party, and the ONLY reason they are in office. He has punched above his weight his whole life, he wont go quietly
The sharks are circling…
B.C.@155
Don’t overlook his total cowardice on a range of matters including the ABC & SBS cuts.
Anyone who falls for his BS deserves what they get.
sprocket_@177
Holy Crapshoot Batman!
OK, 45/55.
Not quite into Gillard territory yet.
30 months is a long time.
Henry@170
Boil the Pot !
Stephen Murray is the old Boilermaker Bill from Crikey. He often has early News Corp articles. Has some sort of inside contact or access. Its legit.
Okay i see Kouk now making more fun of things more popular than Abbott.
“@smurray38: “[Abbott’s] net approval rating of -30 is the worst since Julia Gillard in June last year shortly before she was replaced” #newspoll”
The LNP vibe seems to be it was a poor Budget sales job, not the Budget measures per se.
Make my day and keep thinking that.
Bribe the electorate? Oh, you mean we dont have a budget emergency like you said. And why would we believe you anyway
They will turn to Bishop with Turnbull as Treasurer if there is movement of the Liberal deck chairs.
Apparently, Newspoll primary votes are 38% for Labor (up four), 36% for the Coalition (down two), 11% for the Greens (down three) and 15% for others (up one).
[85
confessions
My concern is this is all happening to quickly, and too soon into this new govt.
I want Abbott’s leadership bleeding out slowly over the course of the next two years. Not now.]
Me too. I want him gone, but not until he and his tribe have been thoroughly smeared with their own political shit.
“@smurray38: “This poll is the worst for any Coalition budget on record, with only 5 per cent saying they would be better off.” #newspoll”
Shorten 10 pt lead as PPM?
Well bloody hell.
Why would anyone be shocked that Shorten is now preferred PM?
Holy f***, any halfwit would be preferred to Abbott right now.
Bill – stay calm, stay cool and let these idiots in government consume themselves.
I wonder what the ABC will find to report on tomorrow morning?
Some new wonder diet or cancer cure, no doubt.
Roger – I was referring to Bishop earlier.
“@smurray38: “People aged over 50 and those earning more than $90,000 were the only groups where more people ranked the budget good for the country.””
roger bottomley@190
Abbott’s head would explode at the thought!
Labor gets 3 % back from Greens on PV. A good sign