Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

The first poll since the budget finds it to have been the worst-received budget since 1993, although the Coalition’s position on voting intention is no worse than it was already.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)

With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).

The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

840 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  2. So Abbott’s Unity Ticket on Education didn’t include the $80 billion he is now cutting.

    How silly of me, thinking Unity Ticket meant Unity he would do the same as Labor had promised.

  3. [victoria
    ….It was funny listening to ine of the male guests stating that the mere sight of Abbott induces the desire to punch the tv screen. I thought it was only me that felt this way!!]

    “No violence monkey”

  5. Keyman@98

    GST is now as state tax according to Abbott. He also came to power to “bring taxes down” I guess he means create new taxes

    Yeah, bring Commonwealth taxes down by cutting back on States and forcing THEM to tax.

  7. AA:

    It was VERY clear before the election that the unity ticket on education funding only extended to the budget out years.

    Many have pointed out exactly that point both here and in the public discussion before the election.

  8. confessions

    Nor have i. Even when I attend the local shops,I overhear people discussing it. Never did I hear any discussion about the carbon tax. Not once

  9. confessions@96

    Boerwar is right. Kelly lacks the follow through with her interviews. She can’t quite finish off.

    Yep – that last bit was pathetic by kelly.

    But she doesn’t have that problem on RN when interviewing Labor.

  11. Just saw Hockey getting flayed alive on Sunrise. It’s bad if you lose on a light entertainment show. The lady really savaged him. Joe almost blubbering at one stage and really started sooking and whining.

    Not a good look.

  12. Everyone is talking about Abbott using the budget cuts to corner the States to advocate for GST rises…….probably quite right. However, another possible explanation is that they are setting the stage for a one-stop shop on education and health, rather than multiple governments managing these…

  13. Hockey – There is no free lunch for the states.

    But there is a $50,000 lunch for Hockey and paid for by the taxpayer

  15. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:31 am | PERMALINK
    Abbott is a dangerous liar, he believes he is telling the truth]

    I suspect Abbott has lied, but the only one I can think of is the debt tax and the vague “we will be a government of lower taxes” motherhood statement.

    Does anyone have specific examples of clear broken promises?

  20. AA

    Tax payer lunch…. I doubt it very much, Fibs would have to pay Parliament catering services which are provided by InterContinental Hotels Group

  21. zoomster@118

    Take out line from the ‘Insiders’ interview –

    We could have continued to try and fool people…

    Too many will continue to vote for abbott though.

    Voting for palmer is not much better either – no indication that palmer would even begin to address complex issues.

  23. Quite a good article from Chris Berg of the IPA.

    Points out Abbott has just taxed big and spent big. Gives the budget a big thumbs down as has Sinclair Davidson. Terry McCrann, Bolt and Piers are all against it.

    Worst received Budget ever.

    It doesn’t even fit a particular ideology (the neocons hate it) which makes it impossible to sell. No coherent narrative.

  25. [TREASURER Joe Hockey wined and dined world financial leaders at the G20 conference in Washington at a celebration that cost taxpayers $50,000 to fly out ­celebrity chef Shane Delia.]

  26. [Everything
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    Everyone is talking about Abbott using the budget cuts to corner the States to advocate for GST rises…….probably quite right. However, another possible explanation is that they are setting the stage for a one-stop shop on education and health, rather than multiple governments managing these…]

    Maybe this, maybe that. Who knows? A good start would be for Abbott and the Coalition would be to stop lying and telling the truth.

    They are certainly not applying one stop shop principle to rural socialism.

  28. [A good start would be for Abbott and the Coalition would be to stop lying and telling the truth]
    Boerwar
    That’s asking a bit much of this mob!

  29. [Diogenes
    ….Worst received Budget ever.]

    Wasn’t Dawkin’s last budget more unpopular?

    I am quite surprised that 40% think this budget is good for the country actually!

  30. [Everything
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    Diogenes
    ….Worst received Budget ever.

    Wasn’t Dawkin’s last budget more unpopular?

    I am quite surprised that 40% think this budget is good for the country actually!]

    It is certainly excellent for the filthy rich.

  32. Insiders on Shorten!

    They did not actually mention that Shorten is ahead of Abbott on preferred prime minister.

    Not bad, for someone who is not cutting through.

  33. Mod
    [I am quite surprised that 40% think this budget is good for the country actually!]
    That’s approximately the Coalition primary vote.

  34. Everything

    [ Diogenes
    ….Worst received Budget ever.

    Wasn’t Dawkin’s last budget more unpopular?]

    Actually I meant in my living memory. I wasn’t following politics back then.

    I just read Paul Sheehan basically saying Abbott appeared to have gone insane.

    I could almost cope with the nasties in the budget if it was going to reduce the debt by a lot but Abbott is spending so much he is only halving the debt in five years.

  35. There is not doubt that the very, very wealthy foreigners who own 90% of Australia’s mining industry would reckon it is a wonderful budget: MRRT gone; carbon tax gone; 1.5% reduction in company tax; diesel fuel rebate protected; plus, free infrastructure built by the Australian taxpayer.

  36. [That’s approximately the Coalition primary vote.]

    I don’t think it is as simple as that. Everyone is adversely impacted by this budget, yet the net “good for the country” is only -7%.

    So 100% worse off but only 7% difference in country worse off versus better off.

    That is an amazingly good base result from which to build over the next 3 (or 6) years by which time, things WILL be much better.

  37. Diogs,

    This a tax and spend Government. You spend far too much time listening to what the Libs say rather than watching what they actually do.

    For example, we supposedly have a debt crisis. Yet none of the money raised by these new taxes will go to reduce debt.

    The devolving of responsibility for the health and education to the States is simply a cost shift. At this stage the Feds are not talking about transferring the funds. My guess is they will give some of it back to voters via income tax relief and leave the revenue raising task to the States.

  38. The Insiders are falling for the old trick of calling a losing game for Shorten without reference to the actual numbers on the score board.

    The polls show a steady increase in appreciation of Shorten, and a steady decrease in Abbott’s.. besides the 2PP figures.

    Political journos did thisreality-defying analysis back in 2006 too, calling Labor “gone for all money” when in fact they had enjoyed an uninterrupted run of winning polls for months, and eventually went years without being behind.

  39. [Everything
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    [Everyone is adversely impacted by this budget…]

    Not true.

  41. [Boerwar
    …..Not true.]

    Who is not adversely impacted?

    [Diogenes
    …..The 11% better off (God knows who they are) and the 74% worse off is the more important figure.]

    100% are worse off, so who are these 11%?

  43. GG

    [This a tax and spend Government. ]

    That’s exactly what I was saying. Abbott isn’t a tax and spend liberal; he’s a tax and spend conservative.

  44. Those for whom Everything is running interferance:

    [There is no doubt that the very, very wealthy foreigners who own 90% of Australia’s mining industry would reckon it is a wonderful budget: MRRT gone; carbon tax gone; 1.5% reduction in company tax; diesel fuel rebate protected; plus, free infrastructure built by the Australian taxpayer.]

    Farmers are also doing exceptionally well. The drought assistance measures totalling more than a billion dollars have not been mentioned.

    On the other hand, you will never ever hear Everything extolling the wonderful impact of the budget on the poorest section of Australian society.

  45. Dio @ 140
    Is that from the poll? In which case they’re self identifying. Mod should go argue with whoever it is thinks they’re better off, not us :D.

  46. BK

    [What’s the “vibe” among the medical profession about the budget?]

    I mainly know specialists and we have copped a big tax hike. Most of our group are $5K-$10K worse off. And Abbott froze the usual pitiful increase in Medicare consult fees to specialists so we’ll have to absorb that as well or put up out fees.

  47. DN

    [while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. ]

    I really can’t work out who the 11% are. I expect they are bloody-minded Libs who are lying.

  49. [Diogenes
    …..I mainly know specialists and we have copped a big tax hike. Most of our group are $5K-$10K worse off. And Abbott froze the usual pitiful increase in Medicare consult fees to specialists so we’ll have to absorb that as well or put up out fees.]

    The Medicare consult fees are irrelevant because most of you charge whatever you like anyway. The fees only impact the patients, not you lot!

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