Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

The first poll since the budget finds it to have been the worst-received budget since 1993, although the Coalition’s position on voting intention is no worse than it was already.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)

With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).

The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

840 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [The first poll since the budget finds it to have been the worst-received budget since 1993]

    I asked yesterday whether this budget was the most we’ve seen, and I guess this answers my question. People simply don’t like what the govt announced.

  2. And from the Land of the Free –

    Bill Maher’s “New Rules”.
    http://crooksandliars.com/cltv/2014/05/bill-maher-republicans-put-or-shut
    Breastfeeding obstacles and a fightback.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/14/1299348/-Because-public-restrooms-aren-t-really-the-best-place-to-feed-babies
    Bill Maher reads some “conservative porn”.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017192444
    A Tea Bagger militia man has a breakdown.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017192509

  3. Galaxy Poll spin in The Oz:

    WITH protests expected in several cities today against the federal budget and with state leaders meeting on funding cuts for their services, a new opinion poll shows support for the major parties was almost unchanged last week after the budget.

  4. Don’t forget everyone … March in May today wherever you are. In Sydney, Belmore Park near Central, 1pm

  5. Morning all. The poll did not ask the questions I would have liked to seen asked. That the budget would be tough was a given. The real questions were:

    1. Do you believe that the budget cuts are due to a debt crisis or ideology?
    2. Do you believe that the budget cuts have been targeted at all sectors evenly?

    For me the answers were 1. Ideology and 2. No. And that is the problem, not that it was tough.

    Have a good day all, i must be off. Kudos Fran, enjoy the march.

  6. Fairly strong effort by Chris Bowen on Sky this morning in the face of hostile and misleading Murdoch interviewers.

    The problem for the ALP going forward though is I think the public are just not listening to politicians words anymore.

    Shorten and his front benchers can have all the strong speeches and doorstops they can muster but people don’t accept words anymore.

    It’s all about actions now.

  7. Huh??
    [With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 48% for not good]

    Thought the newspaper reported 41% good for the economy and 46% bad??????

  8. Amgen is the world’s largest independent biotechnology firm a MEDICAL RESEARCH COMPANY!

    They are also a sponsor for Abbott when he embarks on one of his travel claim tours on his bike.

    How much of $20b Research grants will they get?

  9. Abbott still trying to spruik the Budget Emergency.

    “We couldn’t just do nothing.”… which is not the point… did he do TOO much?

  10. re: good v bad polling figures for the economy.

    A perception that although bad for people personally, a high proportion think the budget will be better for the economy.

  11. Abbott’s boxer’s hands are up defensively.

    Geez, even Fran Kelly scares him.

    Resorts to 3-word slogans, rattles them off. They’re his security blanket.

  12. Thus far a foot rub from Fran.
    Where’s Barrie when you need him.
    Of course monkey pops up on Insiders when he is not around…

  13. Abbott is still trying to make out that he hasn’t broken any promises. There’s more weasels around than in Wind In The Willows.

  14. That is a damning quote: wtte “We deserve to be condemned if we break our promises.”

    STILL running the “over-arching promise” line.

    Says the fact that he broke all his promises PROVES how serious the situation is.

  15. Tony talking about the exact problem. He wants to avoid inter generational theft and avoid being a problem to our children.

    Guess what Tone, you are already a problem to my children. The budget measures specifically aimed at the under 30s is your prosecution of inter generational theft. Newstart TAFE and athe other cuts aimed at the young. More lies on top of lies. You are a delusional liar.

  16. Abbott, after just having his farrago of pre-election lies exposed, keeps referring to OTHER promises he made pre-election as if they’re going to be kept.

  17. Morning bludgers

    Attended a dinner engagement last night, a good night was had by all. I was asked by a couple of guests as to what i thought of the budget. Surprised to learn that several of fhe dinner guests who are rusted on liberal voters thought that the budget was disgraceful, and that they could not stand Abbott.
    They declared that his mob should be kicked out before they wreck the country.
    I have never seen such a response to a budget. quite amazing.

  18. “This idea that there is some kind of emergency because things have to be adjusted in 3 years is not right”

    (Abbott on school funding changes)

    ….kinda argues against his own position on the budget as a whole!

  19. And the main gripes by the guests, 70 year retirement age. The Gold plated PPL scheme and the cuts to Uni funding, as well as health

  20. GST is now as state tax according to Abbott. He also came to power to “bring taxes down” I guess he means create new taxes

  21. victoria:

    I can’t remember such widespread hostility to a budget. Hockey and co have done such a terrible job in selling it – no wonder Abbott’s had to come out to try to patch it up.

  22. It was funny listening to ine of the male guests stating that the mere sight of Abbott induces the desire to punch the tv screen. I thought it was only me that felt this way!!

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