With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.
On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.
Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.
confessions@1796
Sure – but Fran Kelly? You call that ‘serious’ media?
ruawake@1762
Prior to the election I was getting circular emails from a veterans group about how their negotiations with the Libs had gone better than with the ALP and how the Libs would give them a better deal.
Well guess what? Today, I got the first post budget email from them and it was moaning about being stiffed by the Govt.
I will save my gloating for a bit longer. 👿
glory – Newspoll are having trouble tracking down liberal voters.
zoidlord@1795
Labor is not the government.
You ask for something no one can do – guarantee what a future government will or won’t do – yet you have said you don’t/ won’t vote Labor and that you don’t like Labor –
[ zoidlord
Posted Saturday, February 1, 2014 at 1:34 pm | Permalink
I don’t like the ALP {any more than} the next person, ]
Thats fine – but you expect to kick Labor in the goolies, but won’t support them.
We have had this conversation before and my previous reply remains valid –
[ dave
Posted Friday, February 14, 2014 at 9:37 pm | Permalink
No problem – just wear what abbott dishes out.
Cut your nose off to spite your face.
Labor is the only major party that can or will come anywhere near helping most people. Its not going to meet all expectations but it will always be far better than the alternatives and yes Labor doesn’t always get things right.
Who does ? Do you ?
But to sit back and expected it all to be served to you when you are not even a Labor supporter – good luck with that because you will need it.
Labor owes you nothing.
Enjoy abbott ]
gloryconsequence@1798
Main ones Sunday said William.
Fran K uses “we” to refer to the tories, so should be a bit like being with Alan. What we won’t see is Peta with her hand up Tony’s back controlling his lips and ears.
PO:
Insiders, not Kelly necessarily.
err – correction –
Sunday night for Nielson is what William said he expected.
sohar @ 1806
You won’t see her but her hand will be there. It just won’t be up his back.
Evening all
Thinking about the Government’s approach to youth unemployed and the return of Work for the Dole I was reminded of something I read about 18 months ago. The Cameron Government in the UK, upon whom Hockey et al appear to have based many of their policies also introduced a ‘mutual obligation’ program. Under the Tories, young unemployed people work for their jobseeker benefit at Tesco.
That is, kids are being forced to work stacking shelves in supermarkets for their allowance, which is much, much less than the minimum wage. This has a couple of obvious effects. Firstly, it’s pretty degrading for the unemployed to be promised programs to help them get back into work and find themselves as shelf stackers. It also means that rapacious companies get workers almost free where they would have to pay the minimum wage, which also means that they don’t have to pay people to actually do the job, meaning that unemployed people who would be applying for such jobs are excluded, because even at minimum wage levels they’re more expensive than indentured servants.
I reckon you can damn well bet that Coles and Westfarmers have followed this, and are fairly keen on the same arrangement happening here.
Here’s a link to the Guardian story about it: http://www.theguardian.com/society/2011/nov/16/young-jobseekers-work-pay-unemployment
@Dave/1804
Now your making a big assumptions there (My dad always say, don’t make assumptions, because they make an ass out of you and me).
I have voted continuously for Labor, Greens, and Independents, I have refused to vote for Coalition Party at any point and certainty will not do that now.
As to your earlier rant about me on Feb 14th, perhaps that is why I will never be a supporter of a political party, because you trash those who don’t join your party.
That is not how you gain members, and certainty not votes if you continue this attitude.
If you want the 9 million families on Labor’s side, you going have to do a far better than what you are “demanding” others to do.
And this type of shitty attitude is the reason or one of the reasons why I almost quit this Blog because some smart ass political party member thinks it’s ok to slur, bite, bitch, moan about those who have not joined or is a supporter of a particular party.
Now I am in a far more shitty mood today (especially earlier today), now you should think about your ACTIONS before demanding others to join or be a supporter of a particular political party.
OVER AND OUT.
P.S. Enjoy Abbott more.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1809
A free pass is basically all he wants and needs.
He will get it.
I know who/ what I’d cut at the ABC.
sohar @ 1806 – I had flashes of Silver Chairs (in my words) classic Anthem for the year 2000
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShiShrR_nh8&feature=kp
kelly will ask some questions, not push too far though and provide cover for abbott not having to go on 730.
Maybe as it’s in the studio the ABC will have Sarah Furguson pay a surprise visit … just happened to be going past!
I hope Sarah Ferguson stays as 7.30 anchor.
She is top class, and persists with her questions which makes for interesting viewing.
She is far superior to her predecessor (whose name escapes me for the moment.)
zoidlord
Rant and rave all you like – same as your tantrum last night, but Labor does all it can and but will never be enough for those who throw tantrums when they don’t get exactly what the demand.
You are on the record saying you don’t like/ vote labor – yet want to hold it responsible when another party is in power.
Now you say you vote Labor – but its too late.
There are limit to what Labor can do without the support of voters – and you need to realise that – that won’t change no matter how shitty you get – quite the opposite – why would anyone reward such behavior.
I think we can all give up on the ABC ever putting Abbott on the spot. Down to social media from here on in.
sceptic@1814
I like it 🙂
mikehilliard@1817
Even after he boned them, they still won’t stand up to him. I just don’t get it. What more do they think they have to lose?
Email received from Tony Burke/Labor titled ‘We’re back’.
Errr, no, you aren’t. At least not yet anyways.
Marty
Govt having people work-for -the-dole scheme is one way of not having to pay minimum wages
Confessions
I got email too
confessions@1820
Its a good start – much better than a bad start.
Are you aware of Mao’s statement – “China has stood up”.
Clearly not directly comparable, but – Last Night Labor stood Up and many voters stood up with them.
Now lets *Chuck this mob out*
@Victoria
True – but in this example, instead of doing community activity, the unemployed are working for private companies, thus removing the opportunity for other people to take crappy, but still paying jobs.
Marty
Clive palmer made the quip after budget, that next the govt will legislate slavery!
Player One@1819
[Even after he boned them, they still won’t stand up to him. I just don’t get it. What more do they think they have to lose?]
I can’t get it either.
it won’t be slavery. it will be 19th century indentured servitude.
These are people who read Dickens’ accounts of slums, poor houses and depredation and think ‘if only it could be again.’
Marty@1824
And as you say – driving down wages.
Words fail me. No – Just best I don’t use them here.
Marty
Abbott probably gets his inspiration from the show Downton Abbey
[Abbott probably gets his inspiration from the show Downton Abbey]
Yes, it’s my #1 nominee for that “honour” from the PM, given its Sirs, Dames and abject servitude. My #2 nominee is “Game of Thrones”.
Clive will run for PM if DD called
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-to-run-for-pm-if-double-dissolution-called-20140516-zreer.html
While Labor isn’t back… it’s an email to supporters. Giving the membership/supporters a boost matters a lot.
[ Clive will run for PM if DD called]
Hope its not too far or uphill…..
Former Queensland assistant health minister Chris Davis says he was sacked this week partly because he stood on some powerful toes.
Premier Campbell Newman dismissed Dr Davis after he spoke out against doctor contracts and changes to the Crime and Misconduct Commission.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-16/sacked-qld-minister-says-he-raised-concerns-on-donations/5458728
Clive will run for PM if DD called
If Clive gains the balance of power with a half-dozen or so lower house MP’s, it’s not far-fetched that the only way LNP will be able to form government is to offer Clive the PM job. As I posted earlier, this scenario transpired here about a century ago.
Labor is back. In opposition.
Yet the party sending out a ‘we’re back’ shout out email to members after one speech by its federal leader is deemed acceptable by some because it strokes the ego of people like them?
I’m a member, and I say WTF with this shit. You want Labor ‘back’, then reel that crap in and focus on the long game.
[Giving the membership/supporters a boost matters a lot.]
Well I’m a member, and all I see is a Sussex St f*ck up when I see shit like that.
Fess,
If you’re here, did you get the recent ALP email asking for a couple hundred dollars for some sort of Labor supporters blog?
So abuse of kids in homes etc would never have happened either ….
But a couple of other RC’s are running.
…any further comment would be superfluous.
[ David Johnston plays down need for royal commission into defence abuses
Minister to take advice from taskforce set up to address more than 700 complaints of past defence force abuse
Defence minister David Johnston is disinclined to launch a royal commission to examine past defence abuses.
…”I don’t believe in a royal commission, principally because the complainants I don’t think should be put through what they might be put through in an adversarial system,” Johnston said this week.
…15 cases of rape and nine of sexual assault allegedly committed by male ADFA cadets against female cadets between 1994 and 1998.
They were never properly investigated at the time and some of the perpetrators and their victims remain in the defence force.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/david-johnston-plays-down-need-for-royal-commission-defence-abuses
confessions@1837
Oh yes, a member of great experience and wisdom. All gained in a few months.
I imagine there will be a Galaxy poll tomorrow evening, for those of you suffering withdrawal symptoms.
@dave/1816
I am what you call a swinging voter, someone who swings between Labor, Greens and Independents on different levels (Federal and State), majority of the time when I don’t want to vote Labor, I preference other parties.
It seems that has alienated you, because I am not a Labor voter, or even a member, thus you attack me at will, just like in this post.
If an Double Dissolution comes up, then make up your mind as to weather or not you want me vote for Labor or not.
Just remember, Senate changes in July, PUP has balance of power.
When I said what I said back then, I mean it, Labor is a lesser evil than the Coalition Party, they are the only two currently can get into power, but that doesn’t mean I have *like* them, as they are a political party, and like every organizations, looks after themselves.
I support some of their policies (Education, Health, NBN, etc), but as shown by you, dave, it’s obviously not enough for you.
The further that you treat me as your enemy, the further you retreat me to vote for someone else, entirely.
Further, I will post even less on this blog.
/sign out again.
Atticus:
I’ve had about 15 emails this week alone.
confessions@1836
Disagree.
Labor did well last night and are saying so to members – is the alternative not to say so ?
Its far from being shit IMO – its a start back and the tories know it.
More voters think so as well as the result of shortens speech.
So a crappy speech and no positive email or no email at all would have been better?
William Bowe@1841
I am happy to wait a week or more post budget. It can only get better as it all sinks in.
The tin foil hatters on here have been suggesting conspiracies I note.
dave:
A positive email would’ve been great – one headlining a Shorten talking point even better. An over-reaching gloating email OTOH declaring the party is ‘back’? Nope.
Totally f*cked up.
zoidlord@1842
Dave does not attack you so much as some of your nutty ideas.
Posting less would actually be a good idea if it improved the quality of your posts.
Apparently Emma Alberici thinks the ALP have failed to gain any support since the election too.
Where is this ‘truth’ being propagated from?
Frankly I think you’re over-egging this, in the same way they’re over-egging the current situation.
I don’t see this is as a big deal – but it’s certainly very very premature.
K17
“and while you’re down there….”