With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.
On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.
Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.
Okay, Player One.
I renounced my title, by the way. Maybe you missed my post.
Back to Ms Crikey Whitey.
Or to my friends, Crikey.
ru
Apparently Palmer was asked if the member would be joining his party and palmer responded wtte that he was not suited to the PUP
[And who the hell’s business is it?]
It’s nobody’s business. I simply object to the smearing of a woman who has no public policy profile of her own, but who cops it just because of who she’s married to, and who her parents are.
How in the name of all that is equitable is that shit fair?
[I renounced my title, by the way. ]
Dame always suited you I thought. I imagine if vera were still with us she’d have insisted on Dame Vera.
[victoria
Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 8:05 pm | PERMALINK
On july 1 the coalition will have PUP on board to repeal the carbon tax and fhe minimg tax. Apart from that what does Clive need to horsetrade with Abbott?]
I didn’t hear it in the budget, but did Hockey say that the so-called ‘vets orphan payments’ would stay despite the repeal of the mining tax?
If so, Clive’s on board on that one.
And, as he’s hand in glove with climate denialism, then the carbon price has gone as well.
vic
Clive wants to make Tony back down on his no money for defence orphans stance. Or he will keep the MRRT in the short term.
If Abbott gives into one crossbench demand he is toast, he has lost control of everything.
Interesting times.
Say they get rid of Tony, and they install a new Leader, can they call a DD?
Mmmh. Maybe I’ll reconsider on the Queen’s Birthday.
No knights on my turrets, anymore.
Off to glance at Essendon vs Work Cover, I think it is.
[Say they get rid of Tony, and they install a new Leader, can they call a DD?]
The necessary conditions for a DD election need to be met, regardless of who is PM.
victoria@1745
There should be a swag of matters relating to abbott’s nation wrecking budget that will not have been passed that abbott will be eagerly offering pork on.
Clive knows all of that – what remains to be seen is what areas are a *No* and which matters might clive agree for the right price and after abbott has jumped through all the hoops etc and grovelled to clive’s demands.
Now how much of that will abbott put up with – how much will erica etc put up with.
DD threats only go as far as having your bluff called – after all PUP would display themselves as national heros should a DD go ahead – subject to DD requirements etc all being satisfied.
Bushfire Bill Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 7:25 pm @ 1712
Palmer claims that 97% of CO2 emissions are natural. He’s correct, and scientists aren’t disputing that. However, the issue is the other 3%. The planet’s basically been in balance and we’re upsetting that balance. Only around half of that extra 3% we’re pumping into the atmosphere is being reabsorbed (and much of that by the oceans increasing ocean acidity). The rest is staying in the atmosphere and heating the planet.
More information can be found in this New Scientist article and this Skeptical Science page.
The question is what do we do to eliminate or mitigate the 3%? Palmer says why worry about the 3%, why not do something about the 97% (and leave him free to refine nickel and mine coal I guess).
I’d argue that an ETS is the way to go.
By the way, and despite what Plimer claims, volcano output is insignificant, even when compared against man made emissions. Ignore it. Read more on Plimer here. This Skeptical Science post gives more information on the non contribution of volcanoes to Global Warming.
Abbott has also ended the Defence defined benefit super scheme, that he promised to index the same as the age pension.
Try to work out this can of political worms.
[victoria
Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 8:07 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza2
I think I ended up in the right spot. Although many would disagree.
And where would that be? :D]
Slap bang between Labor and the Greens, a member of neither, and no longer beholden to a party that doesn’t represent me on the majority of issues.
crikey whitey@1751
Hmm – twice my responses seem to have been swallowed by the hamsters … third time lucky?
Confesions/1759
Which far as I can tell, a single bill is all that is required, can be triggered?
Ah we seem to be back in business!
[ I renounced my title, by the way. Maybe you missed my post. ]
Good – these new titles instituted by Abbott are not worth a cracker.
[confessions
Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 8:11 pm | PERMALINK
And who the hell’s business is it?
It’s nobody’s business. I simply object to the smearing of a woman who has no public policy profile of her own, but who cops it just because of who she’s married to, and who her parents are.
How in the name of all that is equitable is that shit fair?]
I agree.
If you got something else from what I posted then I didn’t clarify my position eloquently enough.
Just the same as I think it is grossly unfair to smear Warren Mundine for his choice of partner.
Kezza2
Perhaps the PUP is a good fit. 😀
zoid:
I don’t think there will be a DD, on any piece of legislation.
My own view is that the Senate becomes more ABbott friendly come July, despite what Palmer might be uttering today.
@1769
Clive will not be friendly to Abbott or the LNP after July, especially as long as QLD LNP and TheOz going after him.
vic
[Perhaps the PUP is a good fit]
Absolutely not.
kezza:
Oh yes, I definitely think the attacks on Mundine because of who he’s married are out of order.
If people can’t criticise him because of his public statements about indigenous policy, then IMO that shows a startling lack of mental ability on their part.
Clive: “Hi.”
Tony: “Hi.”
Clive: “Drop your pants.”
[ I think the VERY best thing that Labor could do would be to set Palmer up with a couple of qualified Climate scientists in a locked room for a day, so they could counter all his objections to anthropogenic Global Warming. ]
One thing I’ve learned over the last few years is that it is futile to counter climate change deniers by just pointing at the science, or trying to explain it. Mostly they either don’t understand it, or simply can’t afford to believe it.
Some are religious people who simply can’t believe their God would allow this to happen, and others are people with large interests in fossil-fuel based industries … and neither of these groups are likely to be convinced by argument, no matter how convincing.
Of course, there is also a fair sprinkling of just plain idiots, as there is on any issue.
Kezza2
Didnt think so
vic
To clarify: I think PUP is between Labor and the LNP.
[Paul Keating underestimated John Howard. John Howard underestimated Kevin Rudd. Kevin Rudd certainly underestimated Tony Abbott. It’s not clear whether Tony Abbott has underestimated Bill Shorten. But he may have underestimated the extent to which Australians value affordable healthcare and education, and a social safety net they can rely on. Not to mention the extent to which they value truthful politicians.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/tony-abbotts-trust-deficit?CMP=twt_gu
zoilords – Laura Tingle made the telling point today that in any negotiation, Clive has to look like he’s won. Just think how simian Tone will react to that. Further, Clive is a poker player from way back. He’s made his fortune by driving a hard bargain. He’s certainly never built or made anything. He will eat Tone alive.
Player – Clive is smart enough to face the climate change facts, but it’s not in his business interests to do so, so he won’t. Simple as that.
[ He will eat Tone alive.]
abbott has foes wherever he looks.
Would be great to see him leave office in disgrace of one sort or another – having achieved nothing.
Hehehehehe
This poll in the CQ News, which someone obviously linked but I have just had a look at:
PUP 13%
Katter 1%
ALP 54%
LNP 18%
Greens 12%
http://www.cqnews.com.au/news/who-would-you-vote-if-there-was-double-dissolution/2260525/
Ah, dearie me, who’da thought it.
As per article linked
Its immediate tactic seems to be to legislate the budget in two tranches. It has already quietly introduced the appropriations bills and the legislation for the deficit tax or “temporary budget repair levy”.
[With the Greens likely to vote for the fuel tax rise and Labor for the deficit levy, this means key elements will have been passed before the new Senate sits, and the Palmer United party won’t get anywhere near a decision on supply. Many of the other budget measures do not take effect for some time and do not need to be legislated with the same urgency, giving the prime minister time to develop new skills in parliamentary negotiation.
The tactics may avert a parliamentary crisis.]
[ Would be great to see him leave office in disgrace of one sort or another – having achieved nothing. ]
That Abbott achieves nothing would be the best outcome we can hope for. Sadly, he is on track to doing serious damage before he gets dynamited out.
@1782
Both Greens and Labor are idiots if they vote yes to either of them, the whole “If you want an election, bring it on” is then nonsense.
Neither leader has the balls to take a early election.
zoidlord@1784
Labor don’t need advice from you.
I’m not sure “mistake” is thre appropriate word here. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-16/mistake-to-award-world-cup-to-qatar-says-blatter/5459052
@Dave/1785
No need to get personal, just because you don’t like having Labor continued to have criticism over the lack the ability to put more pressure on the crazies.
@frankellyabc will interview @TonyAbbottMHR live in the studio on #insiders on Sunday. @lenoretaylor @latingle & Niki Savva on the panel.
zoidlord@1787
The comment is valid on the basis of your irrational squawking last night and on the basis that you just don’t have a clue.
You are in no position to tell Labor what to do – you don’t even recognise that Labor is your best chance at getting decent ongoing assistant for the disabled.
Who the feck do you think tried its utmost to introduce NDIS ?
Who are the party stopping it ?
[@frankellyabc will interview @TonyAbbottMHR live in the studio on #insiders on Sunday.]
Desperate times call for desperate measures!
[ Desperate times call for desperate measures! ]
They’re not that desperate already, surely!
I don’t watch or listen to daytime news. Judging from the nightly bulletins, evidence given at The Batts is one unbroken line of Mea Culpas & testimony to the witnesses personal & collective stupidity. Can someone tell me whether anything more than that’s said?
ABC tonight going in hard on Chaser Eulogy principles, telling us (again) of four deaths, showing the photos of the deceased again, who must by now be getting nearly as well known as Labor’s Faceless Men. It’s not conducive to a settled blood pressure.
fess@1790
Foot job?
confessions@1790
Tummy rub time – and the whole thing so obvious.
kelly will ask some questions, not push too far though and provide cover for abbott not having to go on 730.
Its pretty obvious – gutless abbott.
@David/1789
I never said such a thing, what I asked for is more protection for the Disabled, repealing of the Payments is fine, but it does nothing for us when it may happen again, in say a years time, or another Coalition Government.
If you want an example of how many times something changed for the Disabled, perhaps check this link:
http://www.dss.gov.au/about-the-department/international/policy/portability-of-australian-income-support-payments#2
NOTE: an example only.
Not to mention other changes through out both Labor and Coalition Party Governments, repealing of Payment cuts is a small step, but Legislation and terms of which they are implemented is an entirely different matter.
As I been trying to say, The devil is in the detail, if Labor misses one part of the Legislation, could mean thousands of people off DSP for no apparent reason, and certainly not the fault of their own, but rather Politics.
PO:
His senior ministers have copped a hiding in the media trying to sell the budget, and then there was Labor’s strong budget reply. So no surprises the govt feels the need to roll out the PM for ‘serious’ media instead of the shockjock fluff he’s stuck with this week.
dave:
My thoughts too. Abbott has hidden behind shockjock or fluff media for a while now. Time to make the effort with ‘serious’ media.
Where the feck are the polls
[ ABC tonight going in hard on Chaser Eulogy principles, telling us (again) of four deaths, showing the photos of the deceased again, who must by now be getting nearly as well known as Labor’s Faceless Men. It’s not conducive to a settled blood pressure. ]
I think the MSM and the LNP have over-egged the pudding on this one. Sad as it is for the families those who died, they were fairly run of the mill workplace accidents that have much more to do with Queensland’s appalling workplace standards than the Pink Batts scheme. And in any case, no-one cares any more – Even Rudd appearing hasn’t managed to drag attention away from the LNP imploding just about everywhere else.
[Where the feck are the polls]
Trying to get up off the floor.