BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. zoidlord

    Make your own mind up and vote for whoever I don’t really care – but when it comes to matters like NDIS there is only one of the major parties who can make it happen and for that to happen Labor have to be in power.

    Do you understand that ? If you are voted out you cannot pass stuff like NDIS which is very important to many people and to you.

    You say you vote for various parties. I don’t know or care if you are a swinging voter or not – but your expectations are totally out of reality when you vote for another party yet still hold Labor responsible for your wishes – ie its a nonsense.

    It is you treating Labor as “the enemy” and quite frankly thats just plain dumb.

    In summary – vote for ever you want – who cares but you will never get precisely what you demand and its a giraffe to expect anything from a party you constantly bag.

    I don’t give a damn if you post here or not – but you are leave Dame Nellie Melba well behind with all your tantrums and comebacks.

    Go into drama – maybe some talent there.

  2. [ Apparently Emma Alberici thinks the ALP have failed to gain any support since the election too.

    Where is this ‘truth’ being propagated from? ]

    Wishful thinking by ABC has-beens?

  3. Medicare $7 co-payment: could it just be a carefully constructed ploy to act as a smokescreen/distraction.

    It is so outrageous that they must have realised that the chance of it passing the Senate is vanishingly small.

    But so what? It has no impact on the budget bottom line. No $7 = no Medical Research Future Fund.

    And really, does this government really care about Medical Research? All the evidence would point to an antithetical attitude toward learning, research, truth. No Science Minister. Funding cuts to CSIRO. Cuts to CRC. Higher university fees. I would not be surprised if the current prime-minister considers learning has been in structural decline since Thomas Aquinas.

    But what the ploy does achieve is (1) is so outrageous it makes other of their budget decisions seem “reasonable”, moving the centre of gravity of the argument (2) their enemies focus their energy on something they are happy to give away, after an appropriate period of faux outrage and fulmination, (3) it exhausts the protest and outrage quotient that people have, so protest fatigue sets in, and (4) allows them to say (especially via compliant media) “well you got a HUGE win on Medicare, give us everything else we want, its fair”

    Which is why Shorten is wise to focus on a few things not just the $7 – GST; pensioners; sentences to 6 months destitution for <30 year olds etc. (Surely Workchoices must be on Abbott’s comeback agenda before too long as well)

  4. Oooh according to Steve Ciobo when an election comes along the ALP will have to put their costings on the table! Funny, the LNP didn’t have to put their costings on the table at the last election…

  5. Back from Essendon. Sheesh.

    Now, this is going to be really cruel, on my part. Possibly disgusting. And I will draw fire, because of this. I won’t care, because I do wonder.

    I can only forgive myself because of the infliction of cruelty on so many by so few. And who knows what drives the particular horror of this Budget.

    Peta Credlin, if Abbott was true to his general form, should advise Peta to take a break. Along the lines, maybe you should focus elsewhere.

    Peta must desperately want a child. All of us can understand that.

    I am no expert, as it seems no one is.

    On one level, she should pursue her career.

    On another level, how destructive could that be? To her hopes. Which she clearly has. Otherwise, the fridge and whatever it takes to do IVF.

    I know a number of women who have needed to take this option.

    It is fucking soul destroying. Mentally, emotionally, session by futile session.

    A nightmare ride on hopes elevated and dashed.

    No question in my mind why Peta Credlin devotes her energies to her work.

    And looks so bitter. And has a world to control and punish.

  6. [ But so what? It has no impact on the budget bottom line. No $7 = no Medical Research Future Fund. ]

    Yes, I agree with this.

    For me, the most despicable thing is what they are doing to Education. Dumbing down the population – especially that part of the population that doesn’t tend to vote for them – is a classic right wing tactic, and it may take decades to recover.

  7. confessions@1846

    dave:

    A positive email would’ve been great – one headlining a Shorten talking point even better. An over-reaching gloating email OTOH declaring the party is ‘back’? Nope.

    Totally f*cked up.

    A good job by a new leader is a cause to gee up the membership IMO.

    No guarantee of pleasing everyone.

  8. Jackol@1856

    Oooh according to Steve Ciobo when an election comes along the ALP will have to put their costings on the table! Funny, the LNP didn’t have to put their costings on the table at the last election…

    Comedy Gold 🙂

  9. Crikey…

    [ And looks so bitter. And has a world to control and punish. ]

    Yes, she’s a genuinely sad case, no question.

    And it must be even worse for her at the moment, watching all her hard work disintegrating before her eyes.

  10. Peta Credlin can go to Hell, where she is happy to put the disadvantaged and vulnerable of this country.

  11. She ain’t sad; any woman who voluntarily spends large amounts of time with Tony Misogynist Abbott deserves not one whit of sympathy. Credlin could always go get a real job, instead of coaching a psychopath in how to appear human.

  12. As I said, Puff. And I share your damnation.

    ‘I can only forgive myself because of the infliction of cruelty on so many by so few’.

    Peta can always go to the nearest school chaplain.

    As her toy says, “Sometimes it’s better to ask forgiveness than permission,”

  13. I am told that in Canberra the most dangerous thing now happening is that the Lib backbench is starting to doubt Abbott’s judgememnt
    People will support a leader doing dangherous things if they think he knows what he is doing….but they are starting to doubt his”judgement ” and that undermines all trust and support in the end

  14. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1863

    Peta Credlin can go to Hell, where she is happy to put the disadvantaged and vulnerable of this country.

    I suspect she’s already there … and that’s the problem – she now wants to inflict her bitterness and disappointment on everyone else.

  15. Why?

    I don’t expect you to care, but it makes me think much less of the people involved.

    It’s a nasty little gossip section here at the moment and I think it stinks.

  16. @dave/1852

    So you don’t care now? Let me paint the picture here, Labor were in power, and they had NDIS and Gonksi, then they lost it, they got what? 3 years in opposition for their stupidity.

    Secondly, Labor is responsible for not only staying in power, but also getting back in power.

    Thirdly, I am not treating Labor as the enemy, I never said that, I said, you are treating me as the enemy.

    Once again, you begin attacking me, because I criticized Labor, perhaps take a leaf out of your own book and stop creating the so called “drama” for others.

    Finally, I will not respond to your little personal attacks, retorts, because that is childish.

  17. [Jackol
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 11:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Can we let the demonizing and disparaging of Credlin go?
    ]

    But it’s such good fun.

  18. Jackol@1871

    Why?


    I don’t expect you to care, but it makes me think much less of the people involved.

    It’s a nasty little gossip section here at the moment and I think it stinks.

    In case you haven’t noticed, Peta Credlin is the CoS of our PM. If you think her motivations and ambitions are irrelevant to politics in Australia, you are fooling yourself.

    We know she pretty much controls Abbott, and tells him what to say. Understanding her motivation is perhaps the best possible way of predicting Abbott’s future behavior.

  19. [In case you haven’t noticed, Peta Credlin is the CoS of our PM. If you think her motivations and ambitions are irrelevant to politics in Australia, you are fooling yourself.]

    Fair enough, but how would a conservative commenter have gone in this corner of cyberspace if he or she had attributed Julia Gillard’s “motivations and ambitions” to her not having children?

  20. [Fair enough, but how would a conservative commenter have gone in this corner of cyberspace if he or she had attributed Julia Gillard’s “motivations and ambitions” to her not having children?]

    LoL i can think of one or two posters that might have written a grumpy word or two about it …

  21. @bemused/1847

    I don’t need your input.

    I quote:

    “There are limit to what Labor can do without the support of voters – and you need to realise that – that won’t change no matter how shitty you get – quite the opposite – why would anyone reward such behavior.”

    That is personally attacking the posters, and threats against those who don’t support political party.

    Labor did a Coalition Party trick by implementing changes to the Disability Pension requirements.

    I have asked for better protection, that is not an unreasonable request, it is not a nutty idea.

  22. William Bowe@1876

    In case you haven’t noticed, Peta Credlin is the CoS of our PM. If you think her motivations and ambitions are irrelevant to politics in Australia, you are fooling yourself.


    Fair enough, but how would a conservative commenter have gone in this corner of cyberspace if he or she had attributed Julia Gillard’s “motivations and ambitions” to her not having children?

    Did Gillard put this in the public arena? Because Credlin did!

  23. William

    I have asked on a couple of previous occasions what you think the MOE of Bludgertrack would be – and as far as I know did not receive a reply. Maybe I missed it or perhaps I just picked times when you were not around.

    Anyway I thought I would try once more. My guess is that it would be very low.

  24. Credlin’s state of child-bearing is not relevent and I don’t hold with the old ‘bitter woman’ schtick. That is a rehashing of the Evil Stepmother/Stepsister role of Grimms Fairy Tales.

    She is paid to do a job and she is doing it well. That she is hand in glove with Abbott in demonising the poor and vulnerable and in prosecuting a Tea Party agenda in Australia is fair game, imo. I believe she could get a job with a more ethical basis, like euthanising spent lab rats.

  25. I expected my post to draw fire.

    I am a person who invariably puts the background of a person first.

    And seeks to understand their circumstance and possible drivers of their behaviour.

    I have been called, not here,’a yellow dog’ for this.

    Which I am not.

    On the other hand, understanding and compassion for those who offend is not everything.

    Especially when they offend. Not just me. A great many.

  26. Credlin’s family state is none of our business. Where she sits in the Liebral scheme of things is.

  27. Darn, I did reply to that question a few days ago – here it is again.

    Darn, in a sense the answer to that question is that it’s generally around 0.7%, but what that really measures is the extent to which the model reflects any given opinion poll result (after the bias adjustment has been added) that’s fed into it. This isn’t quite the same thing as what the MoE for an opinion poll measures, which is the extent to which the randomly chosen sample might fail to precisely represent the total population. I suppose I could say that all the polls put together last week accounted for a combined sample of about 9000, and to the extent that the latest BludgerTrack result reflects that its MoE is about 1%.

  28. Credlins drivers are difficult to assess, as hers is not a public role. There simply is not enough information to draw any inferences from.

  29. Evening all. I was pleased to see we finally have a case of a trucking company manager in SA being charged with manslaughter over the death of a driver in a badly maintained fleet.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/trucking-proprieter-peter-francis-colbert-54-charged-with-manslaughter-over-happy-valley-crash-that-killed-robert-brimson/story-fni6uo1m-1226920368373

    I will know lightning can strike twice if the same thing happens over Grocon in Vic or Coates Transport in NSW.

  30. ‘Did Gillard put this in the public arena? Because Credlin did!’

    Certainly.

    Who for example put on the public agenda Tony’s fridge and Peta’s IVF stuff.

  31. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1886

    Credlins drivers are difficult to assess, as hers is not a public role. There simply is not enough information to draw any inferences from.

    Sorry, I beg to differ. This abomination …

    [ http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-ivf-and-me-peta-credlin-speaks-out-20130106-2caul.html ]

    … makes all these discussions very relevant. If you don’t understand that Abbott shares this kind of hypocritical fruit-loopery, then you will never understand Abbott.

  32. Player One.

    ‘Fair enough, but how would a conservative commenter have gone in this corner of cyberspace if he or she had attributed Julia Gillard’s “motivations and ambitions” to her not having children?’

    I sort of think they did. By inference.

    Barren. Fruit Bowl.

  33. crikey whitey@1892

    Player One.

    ‘Fair enough, but how would a conservative commenter have gone in this corner of cyberspace if he or she had attributed Julia Gillard’s “motivations and ambitions” to her not having children?’

    I sort of think they did. By inference.

    Barren. Fruit Bowl.

    “Deliberately Barren”, if I recall correctly.

  34. But it is a big leap to go from that to Evil Stepmother mode, or ‘bitter and twisted woman’ mode. Those are female stereotypes and heading into sexism, if that train has not already arrived.

  35. I do not disagree. They will use anything and anyone, including a woman’s child-bearing years (Peta has said she put off IVF to work for Abbott). When they are finished the used people are discarded.

  36. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1896

    But it is a big leap to go from that to Evil Stepmother mode, or ‘bitter and twisted woman’ mode. Those are female stereotypes and heading into sexism, if that train has not already arrived.

    Credlin tried to use her personal grief (or so we are to believe) to defend Abbott when he was in trouble politically with women voters.

    I think this qualifies her at least as “twisted”. The “bitter” is my own interpretation of her demeanor and behavior.

    Anyway, I’ve now depressed myself. I’m off to bed.

  37. Quite. Again. Player One.

    There are few lengths, oh, correction, NO lengths, oh, correction, no LOWS to which these people are prepared to descend.

    They ‘deliberately, maliciously’ ‘on hundreds and hundreds of broken promises’ ‘ and lies’ (see my earlier post, quoting Simon Banks of Hawker Britton) seek to deceive by whatever emotive means they conjure.

    They play on emotions and sympathies such as my rather kind heart could be, and is, receptive to.

    They play on our ideals and instincts. Our egalitarianism, feminism, democracy.

    With no compunction at all.

    They have declared war on me and mine.

    They had the lee way. Betrayed it.

    No quarter will be given.

    As they do not.

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