A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.
On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.
Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.
kezza2@1275
Oh dear… here we go again. The cult of the beatified Julia rears it’s head again to fight long dead and irrelevant battles.
Griffin groupies? You poor deluded person.
Alan Griffin happens to be my local member, and I do encounter him occasionally at branch meetings. But I am not aware of any cult following for him.
And he was hardly a great fan of Rudd. He simply recognised that Rudd, for all his faults, was less damaging than Gillard.
Oh, and for what it’s worth, I have always defended Gillard on that old AWU thing and will continue to do so.
Last night was quiet, but I now feel another outbreak of rampant misandry coming on. 😛
I recall mumble opining before the last election, that Labor would win with Rudd at the helm. How did that work out
confessions
Yes, sadly you are probably right. I don’t know about you, but I come across what Mumble is talking about quite a lot. I hear the whole “Labor racks up the debt while the Libs pay it off” quite often. I think this is a killer problem for Labor at a Federal level.
As for me, I believe that when Abbott is moving his lips it is safe to start with the hypothesis that he is lying, twisting the truth, dissembling, cherry-picking, prevaricating or something similar.
Chap can hardly help himself. He was trained by Jesuits and we all know what they say about ‘mental reservation’.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mental_reservation
victoria:
He threw in the towel at around the 2 week mark of the campaign admitting he was wrong.
In relation to football, I am rather inclined to honour societies that did not practise any form of it in ancient times.
confessions
Blind freddy could see that the labor campaign was off the rails by the second week.
kezza
but Labor’s primary vote is recovering.
I had a similar thing with someone on facebook today, talking about the need for Labor to make itself electable – which sort of ignores the current polls.
(I’m not saying, of course, that Labor will win the next election – just that a party polling in the fifties obviously isn’t unelectable).
SMH tweet says it all:
smh.com.au @smh 35m
Joe Hockey and Mathias Cormann pictured smoking cigars ahead of tough budget http://ow.ly/wEKMJ #auspol pic.twitter.com/BscQOvT7IV
Tough for some, luxury for others.
[
I recall mumble opining before the last election, that Labor would win with Rudd at the helm. How did that work out
]
He changed is tune after a week or so of the election campaign. Besides, it was based on a pretty sound premise. Tony Abbott should have been un-electable. Labor helped make him electable!
HAPPY SPEED DATING FRIDAY MOFOS!
Boerwar
And in relation to the game tonight, Buddy has run out of puff and his dodgy knee is not helping
MAD CYRIL – Actually, Rupert Murdoch made Tony Abbott electable. I can’t remember Mumbles ever touching that topic.
[He changed is tune after a week or so of the election campaign. Besides, it was based on a pretty sound premise. Tony Abbott should have been un-electable. Labor helped make him electable!]
Well Rudd had a good start because initially he took on Abbott over the debt. He even challenged Abbott to a press club debate about the national debt and the budget deficit.
But then Rudd screwed up by not talking about it anymore, which created the impression that Abbott’s lies had a kernel of truth to them.
madcyril:
Yes, the Liberals owning the economic message seems pretty well entrenched where I am as well.
It seems to come from an unfortunate set of circumstances whereby Labor gets into govt in times of economic uncertainty, and hence spends to address the contraction, whereas the coalition gets into govt in boom times, and gets to fritter it all away on sweetners.
I wonder though whether the current federal govt has broken that pattern.
Not in the news.
[
Craig Emerson @DrCraigEmerson 27m
.@vanOnselenP Yes. Coalition decisions including scrapping mining tax & super changes at the top, spending on PPL & Direct Action, RBA cash.
]
[
DVArally @DVArally Jul 13
Another young digger has taken his life today. A brother from the RAR. Rest In Peace. Duty Done. This is the 21st suicide this year
[
As i said earlier, mumble expects the coalitiion to get another term as has been the convention
victoria:
Blind freddy could see that yet another leadership change was always going to come a cropper, much less that another Rudd campaign was going to lead to the promised land.
I remember chipping Mumble here many times for his silly assumptions that a Rudd campaign was always going to be sensible and adult-like.
[
MAD CYRIL – Actually, Rupert Murdoch made Tony Abbott electable. I can’t remember Mumbles ever touching that topic.
]
I didn’t realise Rupert Murdoch made Labor change leaders twice in six years, with one aborted leadership challenge and one unsuccessful challenge along the way for good measure. My he is a powerful wizard.
[I remember chipping Mumble here many times for his silly assumptions that a Rudd campaign was always going to be sensible and adult-like.]
It was at the start, but then it just turned into a fear campaign in the last 3 weeks.
SIR MAD – He’s obviously got you mesmerised.
fess
[Or NSW. Sydney is Koori country.]
No, actually, it was decided to call all Eastern Australian Aborigines ‘Koori’.
And Melbourne and Sydney Aborigines agreed to call themselves Koori.
They tried to make it work, it didn’t.
Because they are not all one tribe, or nation.
They are many.
Koori just turned out to be a try-hard collective noun, sort of like trying to be Maori like NZ natives, but it didn’t work.
The Maori had a treaty, the Australian Aborigine didn’t, and never was going to have one.
Much as Gough Whitlam poured sand into the palm of an Aboriginal elder, or Keating made his Redfern Address, white Australia became once again beholden to the racism of Kennett and Howard – and believed the lies they were told about our ownership of the land.
Abbott and his stinking ship of elite continued the lies. And they lie about everything. Not just about the ownership of the land.
And the white population fete Wills and Kate and their baby as the real owners of this land.
And you wonder why Aborigines protest. I do too.
[
I wonder though whether the current federal govt has broken that pattern.
]
confessions
Yes, I seem to recall someone saying that governments of either persuasion may not last as long over the coming few years due to economic uncertainty etc. I for one hope Abbott breaks the pattern.
I thought poll bludger had moved on from Rudd and Gillard and it was going to be a decade fight over some trivia about what Milne had said (sorry couldn’t be bothered watching and forming an opinion); I was wrong.
NOooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Cyril has done a hammy.
[
SIR MAD – He’s obviously got you mesmerised.
]
And the Federal Labor caucus it seems. I wonder what he’ll make them do next.
madcyril:
I think it’s fair to say we all hope that Abbott has a very short stay in the job. I can only imagine the devastation his govt will wreak if he’s still there in 6 years time.
Boerwar
And now roughead will probably get reported for head high bump
[
NOooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Cyril has done a hammy.
]
And all I did was got off the couch.
Sir mad
Lol!
1419
Abbott would have not done nearly as well had Rupert`s papers not gone hard against the previous government in the second term and given the Coalition far less scrutiny. And, because papers are often the main setters of the news agenda for the whole day, it flowed across the vast majority of the mainstream media.
[I recall mumble opining before the last election, that Labor would win with Rudd at the helm. How did that work out]
Yeah that is where is ideas which he has been expressing pretty consistently for a long time led him.
I think perhaps it was how Labor and the electorate behaved then that has caused a bit of a rethink, in someways i think he is overcompensating a little bit. But I still think he is a long way ahead of most in this space.
Speaking of which about 90% of the current Julia cult predicted a surge in support for her any minute for years. He was certainly understanding things a lot better than any of the cult.
Snowy Sell Off?
I assume this was posted earlier today.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/snowy-hydro-sell-off-would-face-backbench-opposition
Has anyone been able to explain how this could possibly work.
What is that gets sold?
The reserves of water held above dams? @ $?/ mega litre
The power that gets generated @ $?/ mega kilowatts
Any profit generated by private operator is offset by loss to government revenue, plus to tax of interest payments mad by operator at higher % than the government pays on it’s borrowing.
Faaarking mad or what?
[Abbott would have not done nearly as well had Rupert`s papers not gone hard against the previous government in the second term and given the Coalition far less scrutiny. And, because papers are often the main setters of the news agenda for the whole day, it flowed across the vast majority of the mainstream media.]
It is logical, I’m not sure there is any support for that though. The papers went hard after Rudd and it didn’t help Howard.
[victoria
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 9:23 pm | Permalink
Boerwar
And now roughead will probably get reported for head high bump]
I don’t have a problem with that. They have to protect the head. End of story.
Hartung is rather a find at pick 24.
Privatisation …. Replaced by New Speak .. Asset Recycling
If this is going to be another night of Julia Gillard bashing, then I am out of here.
My aggregate’s gone to 52.7 now off that extra ReachTEL, though depending on the rounding that might come back to 52.5 or 52.6.
On what we have so far this poll is one of the government’s worst yet, if not the worst. Question is whether it blows over in a few weeks or not.
[zoomster
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 9:10 pm | PERMALINK
kezza
but Labor’s primary vote is recovering.
I had a similar thing with someone on facebook today, talking about the need for Labor to make itself electable – which sort of ignores the current polls.
(I’m not saying, of course, that Labor will win the next election – just that a party polling in the fifties obviously isn’t unelectable).]
This is so typical of you, not to address the sentiment I was conveying.
Then again, I hope you’re feeling good about the polling that has come via Abbott’s crap.
I said you won’t get back the people whose apology was rail-roaded by Rudd’s ambition.
And then you point to something else.
Not every family in Australia was affected by the second stolen generation. But there were many thousands.
You won’t get them back.
But, I suppose, you don’t care about who you attract, as long as you attract them.
I’ll always lean towards Labor, but they will never have my primary vote again.
And I’ll never do another stint handing out HTV cards either. I’m serious.
If you want to belong to a party that crucifies a fantastic female leader just because a bloke couldn’t take being rolled by a woman, then that party does not represent me.
You rolled over, immediately. And that says it, for me.
Told youse that newspoll 34% was concocted.
Newscorpse, not liars but #1 with liars!
Angry Aussies scared of immigrants taking jobs, homes &money from them. So they voted 2 immigrants who do that pic.twitter.com/7zj4nxw0nn
Boerwar
Oh no Josh Gibson appears injured too
1442
Hockey was born in North Sydney.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Hockey
kezza
[I said you won’t get back the people whose apology was rail-roaded by Rudd’s ambition.
And then you point to something else.]
No, I responded to exactly what you said. If you didn’t express yourself clearly, don’t blame me for that.
[You rolled over, immediately. And that says it, for me.]
Er, what?
I made it very clear that I was totally against Rudd’s reinstatement, as I have made very clear since, as well.
kezza
[
And that’s not the sole reason why Labor’s primary vote will never recover.]
That’s what you said.
Not ‘some of these people will never vote Labor again’.
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo Gibson’s done an arm.
bemused
[Alan Griffin . . . was hardly a great fan of Rudd.]
Hardly a great fan of Rudd?
He was his numbers man, FGS.
Jesus, give yourself another Pullman Award. you deserve it.
v
Snap. Bingo. Should be a ripper last quarter.
Boerwar
They are dropping off like flies