A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.
On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.
Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.
Maybe if they park a car between the big sticks Buddy will hit it
KB
They have two budgets after this one. The last one will throw money around and the three budget bread and circus trick will most likely work once again.
s
*laughs*
Good one.
zoomster
Yeah, well.
You know what I meant, but by George you love doing the pernickety to make yourself feel good.
You’ve rolled over.
End of.
kezza
if by ‘rolled over’ you mean stayed loyal to the party Julia Gillard encouraged women to stay loyal to, then yes, I have.
Julia Gillard also rolled over, by your definition.
Re Murdoch’s attacks on Palmer
___________________
Today’s OZ continues the week long attack on Palmer’s business dealing with some Chinese companies,all a bit murky anbd hard to follow
The gist is that the OZ is suggested that Palmer is a shonk and he is returning fire
Whatever the issues Palmer’s conflict with Murdoch is bad news for Abbott,and also carries over to his endless battle with Newman in QLand
I suspect much of this will spill over into the Senate after July I
The usual Murdoch mobsters are leading the charge,but Palmer seems outraged
“A good cigar is as great a comfort to a man as a good cry to a woman” – Edward G. Bulwer-Lytton
[
]
why does Jo Hockey look like he’s been punched on the left side of his face too many times?
Boerwar
All Labor have to do is advertise what the old team….. Howard & Costello did time after time.. & the mess that created….. then again they weren’t bright ( or gutsy ) enough to do it in the last 6 years
Bill keeps banging on about Not Raising Taxes…. being a burden & all that… so change to courage & foresight not on the cards.
Bring back JPK!
Deb
Can you get an extract?
[Rossmore
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 9:59 pm | PERMALINK
“A good cigar is as great a comfort to a man as a good cry to a woman” – Edward G. Bulwer-Lytton]
Oh, diddums. Hockey and Cormann were just being ’emotional’ then?
Should that earn them a coupla votes from the fairer sex, or some demerit points from the justice sex?
I see the old PB windbag is still fawning and dribbling over his poster boys – i.e. Griffin and Rudd.
Time to tune out!
“He who has money smokes cigars but he who has no money smokes paper.” Old Spanish saying.
Indeed
[zoomster
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 9:57 pm | PERMALINK
kezza
if by ‘rolled over’ you mean stayed loyal to the party Julia Gillard encouraged women to stay loyal to, then yes, I have.
Julia Gillard also rolled over, by your definition.]
No, you rolled over to support the men, instead of raising ballyhoo to support a woman.
JG didn’t roll over. She left the party rather than subject herself to more of the same shit.
You didn’t. You are no JG.
Swans kick three in five minutes. Hawks gone?
“The best cigar in the world is the one you prefer to smoke on special occasions, enabling you to relax and enjoy that which gives you maximum pleasure.” Davidoff
Dangerous Ally…Fraser’s new book on USA policies
______________________
Malcolm Fraser new book on our alliance with the USA ,looks at the real dangers of our being drawn into a conflict with China,as the US goes along with the neo-cons line of “containing” China”
He urges a end to the alliance ,and is expecially concerned about the North-West Cape base which is a key part of the US Empire and its’ war making machine in the whole region and he fears that in a conflict with China and Russia,.,,in which we were involved..it would be a first prime target for a nucleur attack
Fraser wants a totally independent foreign policy
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-united-states-dangerous-indispensable-or-convenient-ally-20140508
[Bill keeps banging on about Not Raising Taxes…. being a burden & all that… so change to courage & foresight not on the cards.
Bring back JPK!]
We Want Paul.
[“The best cigar in the world is the one you prefer to smoke on special occasions, enabling you to relax and enjoy that which gives you maximum pleasure.” Davidoff]
The best cigar in the world is when you are drunk enough to enjoy, but not too drunk, and the company tastes almost as good as the cigar.
Roughy kicks two. Ten minutes to go.
Deb is this the article you were referring to?
Deb
[CLIVE Palmer’s private company Mineralogy has been accused of wrongfully siphoning more than $12 million from his Chinese business partners, with some of the funds allegedly used to cover political expenses for the costly federal election campaign by his Palmer United Party.
The Federal Court in Perth was told yesterday that there were “serious questions” about the unauthorised use of large sums of money that Chinese-backed CITIC Pacific had put aside in a bank account for the operation of a port at its Sino Iron mining project in Western Australia.]
“There are men here and there to whom the whole of life is like an after-dinner hour with a cigar; easy, pleasant, empty, perhaps enlivened by some fable of strife to be forgotten before the end is told – even if there happens to be any end to it.” Conrad
Howard’s Battlers ask, ‘Is there going to be downwards pressure on the cost of living?’
Hockey’s answer, ‘No cigar.’
[“There are men here and there to whom the whole of life is like an after-dinner hour with a cigar; easy, pleasant, empty, perhaps enlivened by some fable of strife to be forgotten before the end is told – even if there happens to be any end to it.” Conrad]
I assume Joseph Conrad? I guess he is my choice if there is no company to enjoy the cigar with.
A fine potential example of Asset Recycling..
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/09/slush-fund-chief-helped-draft-liberal-letters-to-help-awh-icac-told
ICAC checking pre-sale contract ?
Labor should really hammer this new version of selling the family silver
[She left the party…]
Well, I’m sure that’s news to her.
Not only didn’t she leave the party, she encouraged the other women in Parliament to stay in their Ministries.
She wasn’t stupid enough to undermine the party out of spite.
As for rolling over to support the men, that’s just pure bunkum.
My favourite caption for todays cigar happy snap
“The most futile and disastrous day seems well spent when it is reviewed through the blue, fragrant smoke of a Havana Cigar.” Evelyn Waugh
Jo and Matt smoking Havanasas the budget papers go pff to the printers could be the defining motif of this LNP gov
[WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 10:10 pm | PERMALINK
“The best cigar in the world is the one you prefer to smoke on special occasions, enabling you to relax and enjoy that which gives you maximum pleasure.”]
And I’ve always enjoyed a cheroot or two (after being clipped by an expert) on a special occasion.
So where do we go from here.
That Cormann and Hockey were just consummating their feel-good moment after finally getting the budget bedded?
Post orgasm?
@1475
Perhaps family jewels might be more apt.
1458
It says you have a subconscious desire to even it up!
I would suggest you do not actually do that though, what with such things being illegal.
Yes Dee and another today…but all part of the never-ending attacks by Murdoch on Palmer
I wonder why ?
[zoomster
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
She left the party…
Well, I’m sure that’s news to her.
Not only didn’t she leave the party, she encouraged the other women in Parliament to stay in their Ministries.
She wasn’t stupid enough to undermine the party out of spite.
As for rolling over to support the men, that’s just pure bunkum.]
So pernickety, as I said.
What I meant was, she left the parliament, As you well know.
But you can have, as always, the last word.
Not that you deserve it.
And I promise I won’t tell what I emailed you about.
[What I meant was, she left the parliament]
While criticising Zoomster for failing to follow Gillard’s example by leaving a parliament of which she was never a member.
William
Et tu, Brute.
As if you both of you don’t know what I mean.
Give yourselves a pat on the back for being totally obtuse.
kezza
[And I promise I won’t tell what I emailed you about.]
You really are a prat.
Deb
There may or may not be truth in the story.
However, Palmer dared to challenge the Murdoch rags and it has been escalating ever since.
They don’t like anyone to push back.
Kezza, I have no idea what you mean, if anything. What are you saying Zoomster should do? Leave the party? Maybe she should, but that is expressly not what was done by Julia Gillard, whose example you are saying she should follow.
The best cigar in the world is the one that never leaves the tobacconist.
Zoomster
Rest assured that when I disagree with you, the words I use will convey what I mean.
Clairvoyancy will not be required.
1486
Palmer has some good points and some bad points. His willingness to go for Rupert is one of his good points.
Oh, back on those corndollies? I logged back on to gloat about the swans but seeing the current discussion has cold spooned my mood.
zoomster
Oh yes I am a prat.
A prat who won’t sacrifice integrity.
Do you really think I stood outside all those booths all those years to get people, any one, elected.
No, I didn’t. I did it because I believed in the Labor Party.
And I would never be party to corruption. Ask my local branch.
Yet when I emailed you about my concerns, you just brushed me off. Like I was too small to be bothered with. Palmed me off to some distant body that never answered.
About time you stopped taking people for granted.
And started listening, instead of being full of your own ability to argue a point.
You only sit up and listen when exposure is on the cards. Pathetic. So you tried to dismiss as nothing, but it wasn’t nothing. And you know it.
[William Bowe
Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 10:36 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza, I have no idea what you mean, if anything.]
zoomster knows what I’m talking about.
And it was nice of you to join in and take sides, her side, which is par for the course, but I don’t hold that against you, given my many misdemeanours on your blog.
It’s not personal, at all. It’s party politic.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1438
No-one is bashing Julia.
Now just don’t you start your misandry again! 👿
I wonder if there will be some more budget media drops in the tabloids tomorrow.
Maybe some sweeteners.
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s first term agenda now relies, in no small part, on the social skills of Education Minister Christopher Pyne.
After three years wrestling with Labor’s Anthony Albanese in the rabid 43rd Parliament, Mr Pyne has now been tasked with managing all communications with the mining magnate Clive Palmer, who will control the balance of power in the new Senate.
An email sent to Coalition staffers on Friday, obtained by Fairfax Media, reveals all communication with Mr Palmer must be referred through the office of the Education Minister and government leader in the House of Representatives, Mr Pyne.
“The PM has asked the leader of the house to lead on engagement with Mr Clive Palmer in the House of Reps,” says the email, sent by an adviser to Mr Pyne.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-agenda-rests-on-christopher-pynes-social-skills-20140509-zr8dp.html#ixzz31DuvuAkC
Marty
I think the Italians using the term “calcio” is similarly dodgy, trying to invent a heritage they don’t have.
When I spent a few months in Italy, they kept telling me about culture and I thought they were using the term interchangeably with soccer. After a few weeks, I realised they were saying “calcio”.
Cigargate!
GeorgeBludger’s tweet down the page.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-joe-hockey-and-finance-minister-mathias-cormann-pictured-smoking-cigars-ahead-of-tough-budget-20140509-zr8i3.html
kezza2@1448
He was also highly critical of Rudd in a number of respects.
He only supported Rudd as the alternative was so dreadful.
Now the crazies are back again, night all.