BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

A pre-budget polling slump for the Coalition expands Labor’s poll aggregate lead, crediting them with an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.

On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.

Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,514 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 31
1 2 3 … 31

  1. @AndrewBGreene: Dumped frontbencher John Cobb steps up criticism of deficit tax: if you make promises then obviously you should adhere to them, fact of life

  2. [ Treasurer Joe Hockey says PPL levy shows coalition never promised no new taxes in Gov ]

    Hopefully the tories stick to this line – it will damage them more and it will be of their own doing.

    Voters are convinced they were told otherwise and there is so much on the record about it.

  4. [Edwina StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 7:23 am | PERMALINK
    Is Bill Shorten the messiah ? lol

    Has mark Latham come in from the cold ?]

    Is ESJ going to continue pretending she is not a Liberal troll?

  5. More from Hockey

    [
    Mr Hockey has told the Australian Financial Review the belief that the Coalition never promised new taxes is “wrong”.

    “We went to the last election promising to introduce a levy for PPL so claims that we said we would never introduce new taxes are just wrong,” he said.

    “We actually went to the last election with a written policy saying we were introducing the 1.5 per cent levy for PPL.”
    ]

    Hilarious. You couldn’t make this crap up.

  9. Just heard Fran Kelly with Jon Faine. She said that Teresa Gambaro’s statement re the deficit levy is a red flag for the govt. Jon faine made the comment that MTurnbull is being very affable at present. “Mark my words”. The suggestion being that Turnbull still has leadership ambitions.
    Also apparently JGillard has been asked to lawyer up as she will be called to the RC to answer questions re the AWU “slush fund” According to Kelly, the govt have an axe to grind with JGillard.

  15. “@ABCNews24: A Bill is being introduced in #NSW that will force MP’s to declare the financial interest of spouses and dependents every month”

  16. Unhappily, when I turned on ABC News last night, I caught part of a story on the shark cull in WA. Speaking as someone who cares for and about animals, I found the footage of sharks on drum lines seriously confronting, and began to experience the physiological responses associated (for me) with outrage and profound sadness. The consequences of the ignorant, bloody minded, self-serving cruelty of it all was in plain view. It was also clear that the program was an utter failure. Not one Great White had been trapped (given it’s a protected species, I am glad of that), and since control of the numbers of this species were the official warrant for this program, by definition, the programs has failed. People are at just as much of a tiny risk of being attacked by a Great White. Barnett is clearly lying in saying the program was a success.

    What is even more galling was that the WA government has tried to prevent activists releasing injured sharks, and likewise demanded that they surrender video footage on pain of being charged with criminal obstruction. Clearly, the Barnett regime, despite its boasting of success, wants, like Morrison on asylum seekers, to hide from the public the pointless cruelty he is inflicting, and to prevent them knowing the depth of commitment and courage some people bear towards the integrity of the marine environment. Those pictures are harming them and apparently, in their view, free speech must yield to regime service.

    Truly, there is no profanity which lies beyond the whim of contemporary governance.

  18. I’m sure there are many more quotes around as well –

    [Here’s The Moment Tony Abbott Promised No New Taxes Before The Last Election

    Here’s the quote:

    It will be a modest cut. We took a 1.5 percent cut to the last election.

    There will be a modest cut that we’re taking forward at the next election.

    What you’ll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes.

    What you’re getting under Labor are tax cuts that are funded by new taxes and a tax cut that’s paid for with a tax increase. It’s not a real cut, it’s a con. ]

    So abbott admits there he position is a con.

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/heres-the-moment-tony-abbott-promised-no-new-taxes-before-the-last-election-2014-4

  20. Also jon faine mentioned the Mathias Cormann presser yesterday. Where Cormann said wtte “to trust them”. Faine reckons that those words actually have the reverse affect on voters

  22. “@brigidglanville: The media room is very quiet at #icac today. @Kate_McClymont and @MWhitbourn not here as Fairfax reporters on strike.”

  23. @Peter_F_Ryan: NAB boss Cameron Clyne on whether there’s a budget crisis: “It’s not the picture that I see & certainly not the picture overseas people see

  24. BK – did you hear Briggs on 891 radio this morning. Talk about an easy ride.

    Bemused – re the crazy talk last night. JG’s qualities as leader I will not comment on, but her qualities on camera and in parliament I miss (and I believe is missing in the ALP at present).

    As for RexD saying Shorten shouldnt need time to grow into the job…..does anyone remember how dorky and bumbling Howard was in most of his first term as PM (his first meeting with the Queen comes to mind)?

  29. guytaur@76

    @Simon_Cullen: RT @KJBar: Government to terminate the ABC operated Australia Network. Story by @andrewprobyn http://t.co/MCywwkGUIL

    Hopefully the ABC will do this –

    [ The Government believes that if the ABC wants to continue broadcasting into the 44 nations that receive Australia Network it could lift the geo-block that prevents ABC24 being watched from overseas. ]

  30. zoid

    Yes directly against the national interest given Australia Network deal delivering broadcast access throughout China

  31. Fran,
    yesterdays conversation about language reminded me of something….
    My highschool English grades were terrible (as I am sure you can guess). They were so bad that at the end of year 12 the English teacher recommended I take up journalism. 🙂

  35. “@ABCNews24: Shorten: We don’t need a new toll on existing roads, that goes to families’ cost of living #budget #WestConnex #auspol”

  36. “@ShoebridgeMLC: Did he disclose? @sarahgerathy: #ICAC hears the Commission of Audit Chairman Tony Sheperd was among the Free Enterprise Foundation’s donors.”

  37. Simon Katich@74

    BK – did you hear Briggs on 891 radio this morning. Talk about an easy ride.

    Bemused – re the crazy talk last night. JG’s qualities as leader I will not comment on, but her qualities on camera and in parliament I miss (and I believe is missing in the ALP at present).

    As for RexD saying Shorten shouldnt need time to grow into the job…..does anyone remember how dorky and bumbling Howard was in most of his first term as PM (his first meeting with the Queen comes to mind)?

    Yes, I remember how dorky and bumbling Howard was, but Abbott is now doing his best to make Howard look like a polished performer in comparison.

    Abbott is just an embarrassment whenever he gets out of the country or meets any foreign leader here.

  38. Lol ABC presenter just said that Abbott is in Melbourne today, but it is not expected he will be speaking to the media today

  39. Simon Katich @ 75

    [I have to stop listening to 891 radio in the morning. Giving me the cranky shakes.]

    My feelings too. Matt and Dave are to busy being partisan smart asses all the time.However it did point out that Briggs is an empathy free zone.

  41. [Muswellbrook Council had raised concerns about possible impacts from the discharged water on downstream agriculture and horse studs.

    But the Planning Assessment Commission found the existing regulatory scheme controlling saline water releases from Hunter coal mines would be sufficient to protect the river.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-08/mangoola-mine-expansion-gets-green-light-from-pac/5437926

    This is serious stuff if the regulations aren’t strong enough. I guess Fitzgibbon is cheering.

    I saw Hockey’s eyesore (the Bungendore windfarm) last Thursday for the first time. The sky was blue, the grass green and the white sails made for a majestic sight. What on earth is Hockey on? Probably loves the Musswellbrook and surrounding devestation.

  42. victoria @ 88

    Lol ABC presenter just said that Abbott is in Melbourne today, but it is not expected he will be speaking to the media today

    Could :monkey: be lured out of hiding with a hi viz vest and a bunch of wingers ?

  44. “@farrm51: To sum up speculation: PM Abbott will raise taxes to pay for new roads, & increase petrol excise to make it more expensive to drive on them”

  46. “@SabraLane: “The Abbott government’s case for a debt tax is equivalent to a child’s fairy tale” – @CliveFPalmer”

Comments Page 2 of 31
1 2 3 … 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *