Seat of the week: Franklin

With Saturday’s election in the corresponding state upper house seat of Huon fresh in the mind, Seat of the Week takes a visit to the Tasmanian seat of Franklin.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The only seat left standing for Labor in Tasmania after a 9.4% statewide swing at the last election, Franklin covers the Hobart suburbs on the eastern bank of the Derwent River together with Kingston on the city’s southern fringe, small towns further to the south, and the unpopulated southern part of the World Heritage area in Tasmania’s south-west. The remainder of Hobart, including the city centre and the suburbs on the river’s western bank, constitutes the electorate of Denison. As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has an enrolment of roughly three-quarters the national average and an uninterrupted history going back to the state’s division into single-member electorates in 1903.

Labor first won Franklin at a by-election held two months after the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, then lost it again amid the party’s debacle of 1931. The seat subsequently changed hands in 1934, 1946, 1969 and 1975, before remaining in Liberal hands throughout the Fraser years and the first 10 years of the Hawke-Keating government. Labor finally won the seat when colourful Liberal member Bruce Goodluck retired at the 1993 election, which together a strong statewide result for Labor delivered a decisive 9.5% swing to Harry Quick. Quick maintained the seat with only mild swings either way at subsequent elections, although there were occasional suggestions he might be brought undone by internal party machinations. When his preselection appeared threatened ahead of the 2004 election, Quick was able to secure his position partly by indicating that he might run as an independent.

After choosing his own time of departure at the 2007 election, Quick sought to keep the seat out of factional hands by promoting his staffer Roger Joseph as his successor. This was thwarted when a deal assigned Franklin to Kevin Harkins, state secretary of the Left faction Electrical Trades Union, and Bass to the Right-backed Steve Reissig. Objecting that Harkins was a “right thuggish bastard” who would lose the seat, Quick declared that he planned to vote for the Greens. His attacks drew blood as newly anointed Labor leader Kevin Rudd sought to distance the party from unsavoury union associations, with Harkins carrying baggage from the 2003 Cole royal commission into the building and construction industry. Harkins’ position ultimately became untenable in July 2007 when the Australian Building and Construction Commission brought charges against him over an illegal strike. When he won preselection for the Senate ahead of the 2010 election, he was again rolled by the intervention of Kevin Rudd.

With Harkins out of the picture and the election looming, the preselection was referred to the party’s national executive, which maintained the factional balance by choosing the Left’s Julie Collins, the state party secretary and a strongly performing though unsuccessful candidate at the March 2006 state election. The loss of Quick’s personal vote combined with the manner of his departure resulted in Collins suffering a 3.1% swing, one of only four swings to the Coalition at that election. Coming off a suppressed base, she went on to enjoy a 6.8% swing at the 2010 election, the highest recorded by a Labor candidate anywhere in the country. She then emerged Labor’s only lower house survivor in the face of a swing that unseated sitting members in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, her margin reduced to 5.1% by a 5.7% swing to the Liberals that was 3.7% below the statewide result.

Collins was made a parliamentary secretary after the election, and progressed to the outer ministry as Community Services Minister in December 2011. After backing Kevin Rudd’s successful leadership bid in late June she was promoted to cabinet, adding housing and homelessness, the status of women and indigenous employment to her existing area of responsibility. Since the election defeat she has held the shadow portfolios of regional development, local government and employment services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Seat of the week: Franklin”

Comments Page 7 of 19
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  2. Yowzer. This tweet from Murdoch spear carrier Gemma Jones of The Daily ToiletPaper

    [@Gemma__Jones: The Abbott government is obviously aiming to be a one termer. #debttax #breachoftrust]

  4. MTBW

    You would think in light of recent ICAC events they would be making sure everything is squeakier than squeaky clean.

  5. Well, Howard was Abbott’s hero. It’d be a hard slog to lose his seat, so to emulate him Abbott’s only option is to make history by losing government after one term.

  10. PATRICK – Funnily enough, in the movie/TV/music industries, the only real competitive pressure on monopolistic organisations has come from pirates. If people didn’t pirate, we’d still be watching BBC re-runs that were four years old, we’d still be paying $30 a CD, we’d still be paying a fortune for DVDs, etc etc. Piracy allows consumers to fight back against exorbitant prices. Foxtel is a total rip-off right now. Imagine how much they could charge if it was the only way people could get game of thrones, etc etc.
    This govt is toying with toughening up anti-piracy laws. What a vote-killer that would be. There are a lot of people out there who can only afford pirated entertainment and think, funnily enough, that the internet should be free and open. But these tech-dullards in the govt probably don’t understand that. They’re too busy building book-cases for mouldy old books.

  11. Van Badham on Fraudband. An explanation for non-techos.

    [The Coalition have declared Australia must spend $12bn for the best fighter jets, yet with crucial infrastructure they are installing a system that evolving technological needs will inevitably demand be replaced with a proper fibre network, with us lagging behind our economic competitors all the way. If you think, like Tony Abbott does, that the internet is just “a video entertainment system” anyway, maybe you’re not alarmed. If, however, you make the connection that everything from emergency management systems to banking security relies on functional telecommunications that can speak to world standards, you might want to take a closer look at what’s going on.

    Do not expect scrutiny from those Turnbull has surrounded himself with; the report from the Coalition’s recent Strategic Review had outcomes that dovetailed exactly with Turnbull’s surprise “multi-technology” policy. And Turnbull’s demand that the previous Labor government submit the NBN to a cost-benefit analysis has, now he’s in government, neatly reversed: his NBN will not be subjected to such an analysis, he just wants to “get on with (the) job”.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/07/slower-less-reliable-less-productive-this-is-what-turnbulls-nbn-looks-like?CMP=twt_gu

  12. It is wrong to compare physical property and and IP they are fundamentally different.

    If you really love your manuscript (on paper or a USB stick) it is protected from theft in exactly the way your TV set is protected while it is in your possession.

    Want you are asking for with IP is special statutory rights to put it out there make money and limit what others can do with it. And I would support some limited rights of that nature. As it stands copyright and patents are being misused terribly and so much so we would be better off without them.

  16. [@vanOnselenP: They need the deficit tax to fix the budget…bc of the cost of the PPL, the company tax cut, direct action etc etc etc. What a joke…]

  17. WWP – You’re right. IP is really a govt mandated monopoly. A company sells you something and then tells you that the govt will stop you using your property as you wish.

  23. Long article that I think many bludgers will enjoy.

    [Rent seeking, broadly defined, involves the shaping and manipulation of the political process to obtain or protect economic advantage. To use a simple and increasingly common example, every time corporations successfully lobby for a tax break, the burden falls on the rest of us to make up the tax shortfall.

    The recent and repeated success of private sector political campaigns has prompted economist professor Ross Garnaut to question “whether changes in the way private interests seek to influence policy has removed the possibility of governing in the public interest in the twenty-first century”. His concerns are echoed by former Reserve Bank governor Bernie Fraser, who complains that “self interested views are having a disproportionate influence on the policy-makers”.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/07/tony-abbott-is-right-australia-really-is-open-for-business

  24. Why is Newscorpse turning on this govt? Do they know that Tone won’t be PM in the near future? If anyone knows, they will.
    Or is Rupe pissed off that his massive investment in the coalition is being pissed away.
    Anyone care to speculate?

  26. Looks like Andrew Bolt is flexing his new Brandis-endorsed freedom. A taste of his style from today

    [ABC presenter Waleed Aly, a Muslim, is often used by Channel 10 and Fairfax to explain away Muslim terrorism. He is the media Left’s acceptable face of Islam, but how acceptable is he really?

    With the jihadist bombing of the Boston marathon, for instance, he initially informed Age readers:

    … the very real suspicion that the perpetrators here are self-styled American patriots. At this point, most analysts are leaning that way. And while it’s entirely possible they are wrong, there’s something chilling about realising that this violence might not be something that can be assigned to a demonic other. Maybe we’re speaking in more hushed tones because our own societies might just be implicated.

    Yesterday on The Project he was asked as an alleged “an expert on terrorism” to tell us something about Boko Haram.

    Boko Haram’s leader himself has been taped saying Allah commands him to sell into slavery the Nigerian school girls his Islamist terrorists have kidnapped. A Muslim intermediary says some of the Christian girls have already forced to convert to Islam.

    But Aly, asked to explain who Boko Haram actually was, could not bring himself to describe them as Muslim or even use the word “Muslim” once:]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/waleed_aly_refuses_to_say_what_boko_harams_leader_will_these_terrorists_are/

  27. [WWP – You’re right. IP is really a govt mandated monopoly. A company sells you something and then tells you that the govt will stop you using your property as you wish.
    ]

    Wish I had said it so well.

    The model is also largely a book and Lp model where in reality once you had it the book or LP you could play lend to friends etc. the technology improves to make it better and cheaper for everyone and what does IP law do – it extends its reach. Software IP protection shouldn’t last more than 4 years – what is it something like 100?

    I would give visual media (tv – movies) 30 days from public broadcast or 4 years without public broadcast.

  30. [ So despite a “budget emergency”, Abbott is going to reduce the company tax rate from 30% to 28.5%, losing $4B in revenue? ]

    Really?? So how does that play with the message about the “pain” that has to be shared across the economy?? They have signalled how the common folk will suffer, but what kind of a whack is in store for the corporates??

    This lot are going serious weird.

  32. [326
    sprocket_

    Looks like Andrew Bolt is flexing his new Brandis-endorsed freedom. A taste of his style from today

    ABC presenter Waleed Aly, a Muslim, is often used by Channel 10 and Fairfax to explain away Muslim terrorism. He is the media Left’s acceptable face of Islam, but how acceptable is he really?]

    I guess this makes Bolt the media right’s supercilious voice of bigotry.

  33. “@AlexGreenwich: Glad to speak in favour of @GreensJamieP’s motion on funding support for #icac, I also called for a federal #icac #nswpol”

  34. [Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 3m
    My favourite graph in “Labor’s Mess”.. (oh wait, somehow they forgot to put it in) pic.twitter.com/YsQL2F3SY3 ]

  36. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 1m

    How much did the government spend to point out how much the former government wasted?

  38. Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    HRH cjjosh ‏@cjjosh 2m

    @joshgnosis Lib party paid for it – so why was it covered in a presser

  39. “”Why is http:/ww.laborsmess.com.au/ hosted in Amazon instead of with a local provider? Why doesn’t the coalition support local IT jobs?””

    If the public fall for this bullsh#t they deserve everything Abbott throws at them!.

  40. [KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 3:49 pm | Permalink
    Why is Newscorpse turning on this govt? Do they know that Tone won’t be PM in the near future? If anyone knows, they will.
    Or is Rupe pissed off that his massive investment in the coalition is being pissed away.
    Anyone care to speculate?]

    An explanation that comes to mind is that they were not as biased agianst Labor as many thought. More biased against the Government itself because that’s easy and sells newspapers ( well apart from the Australian of course), so all they are doing is more of the same. This applies to the others news outlets as well. Of course other more paranoid explanations might still be true.

  41. Re K17 @324: Newscorp, in common with most of the business community, want a Thatcherite revolution in Australia. They want to see the Commission of Audit report implemented in full, and more. They want Workchoices reintroduced and taken further.

    Maybe they have decided that Abbott, as an old DLP man, is not the one to do it. They may also have strong doubts about his ability to deliver, given the low polling numbers, his determination to go ahead with expensive brain farts like PPL and Direct Inaction.

    Or maybe Newscorp figures that it is safe to be balanced this far out from an election. Their open campaigning for the Coalition in the last Parliament must have lost them a lot of readers among the 47% who did not want a change of government.

  43. “…Labors debt and deficit disaster…”

    This deceit emanating from the Prime Minister is only hurting his own credibility.

    I’ve never know such a non-leader to be elected the leader of his/her country.

    The ultimate servant. The ultimate follower.

  44. kj:

    [An explanation that comes to mind is that they were not as biased agianst Labor as many thought. ]

    Nup, they were. Photoshopping ALP ministers in Nazi uniforms was a low point in ‘journalism’ (using the term loosely). Not to mention the bitchkrieg launched by News Ltd journalists against Gillard.

  46. “@sortius: So the best way to sell more papers is to reduce staff & produce a worse newspaper? #Failfax”

    Spot on

  47. http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/abbott-government-freezes-unions-out-of-budget-lockup-20140506-zr5t6.html

    [Unions have been frozen out of the Abbott government’s first budget lock-up, in what one representative said is an ”unprecedented attack on transparency”.

    Members of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, the Community and Public Sector Union and the Australian Services Union say they have been refused entry to the stakeholder lock-up next Tuesday.]

    Meanwhile Hockey is selling an ‘independent’ academic as a speaker for his Sydney Forum whatever at $3000 a pop.

    [Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey has been accused of inappropriately using a senior economist conducting an independent review of government policy as a “drawcard” for a $3000-a-head budget day fundraising event for the NSW Liberal party.

    Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has written to Mr Hockey voicing his concerns about the appearance of Professor Ian Harper on a list of speakers at an exclusive event organised by a secretive Liberal Party fundraising body, the North Sydney Forum.]

  48. Kate McClymont (@Kate_McClymont) tweeted at 4:00pm – 7 May 14:

    Fairfax Media on strike for 24 hours over slashing numbers of photographic and other staff. Sorry folks, that means no tweeting from #icac

    Withdrawal symptoms have started

  50. STEVE777 – I’ve always assumed that, with Newscorpse, it begins and ends with protecting the NBN, which is rupe’s only cashcow in this country. I think I’m right. But maybe they also have an ideological flavour which sometimes outweighs the immediate business interest. Or maybe they just like smacking their dog every so often to let it know who is boss. Puzzling.

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