Seat of the week: Franklin

With Saturday’s election in the corresponding state upper house seat of Huon fresh in the mind, Seat of the Week takes a visit to the Tasmanian seat of Franklin.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The only seat left standing for Labor in Tasmania after a 9.4% statewide swing at the last election, Franklin covers the Hobart suburbs on the eastern bank of the Derwent River together with Kingston on the city’s southern fringe, small towns further to the south, and the unpopulated southern part of the World Heritage area in Tasmania’s south-west. The remainder of Hobart, including the city centre and the suburbs on the river’s western bank, constitutes the electorate of Denison. As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has an enrolment of roughly three-quarters the national average and an uninterrupted history going back to the state’s division into single-member electorates in 1903.

Labor first won Franklin at a by-election held two months after the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, then lost it again amid the party’s debacle of 1931. The seat subsequently changed hands in 1934, 1946, 1969 and 1975, before remaining in Liberal hands throughout the Fraser years and the first 10 years of the Hawke-Keating government. Labor finally won the seat when colourful Liberal member Bruce Goodluck retired at the 1993 election, which together a strong statewide result for Labor delivered a decisive 9.5% swing to Harry Quick. Quick maintained the seat with only mild swings either way at subsequent elections, although there were occasional suggestions he might be brought undone by internal party machinations. When his preselection appeared threatened ahead of the 2004 election, Quick was able to secure his position partly by indicating that he might run as an independent.

After choosing his own time of departure at the 2007 election, Quick sought to keep the seat out of factional hands by promoting his staffer Roger Joseph as his successor. This was thwarted when a deal assigned Franklin to Kevin Harkins, state secretary of the Left faction Electrical Trades Union, and Bass to the Right-backed Steve Reissig. Objecting that Harkins was a “right thuggish bastard” who would lose the seat, Quick declared that he planned to vote for the Greens. His attacks drew blood as newly anointed Labor leader Kevin Rudd sought to distance the party from unsavoury union associations, with Harkins carrying baggage from the 2003 Cole royal commission into the building and construction industry. Harkins’ position ultimately became untenable in July 2007 when the Australian Building and Construction Commission brought charges against him over an illegal strike. When he won preselection for the Senate ahead of the 2010 election, he was again rolled by the intervention of Kevin Rudd.

With Harkins out of the picture and the election looming, the preselection was referred to the party’s national executive, which maintained the factional balance by choosing the Left’s Julie Collins, the state party secretary and a strongly performing though unsuccessful candidate at the March 2006 state election. The loss of Quick’s personal vote combined with the manner of his departure resulted in Collins suffering a 3.1% swing, one of only four swings to the Coalition at that election. Coming off a suppressed base, she went on to enjoy a 6.8% swing at the 2010 election, the highest recorded by a Labor candidate anywhere in the country. She then emerged Labor’s only lower house survivor in the face of a swing that unseated sitting members in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, her margin reduced to 5.1% by a 5.7% swing to the Liberals that was 3.7% below the statewide result.

Collins was made a parliamentary secretary after the election, and progressed to the outer ministry as Community Services Minister in December 2011. After backing Kevin Rudd’s successful leadership bid in late June she was promoted to cabinet, adding housing and homelessness, the status of women and indigenous employment to her existing area of responsibility. Since the election defeat she has held the shadow portfolios of regional development, local government and employment services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Seat of the week: Franklin”

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  2. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    There was a comment that Rupe’s backs “winners” rather than a particular party. Tones may have been taken off his “winners ” list.

  3. I have to disagree with Fran in regards to the Nazi’s and capitalism

    People like Fran so often seem to overlook the Jewish communities commitment to finance and commerce thus to say capitalist = Nazism is an insult to the Jewish comm unity even though i suspect non is intended.

  4. “@G_Parker: Rob Johnson has crossed the floor to vote with the Opposition on a motion to call on Troy Buswell to make a personal explanation to parly.”

  6. Simon asked:

    [Do you really still stand by the “let’s recall the bloodlust of unfettered capitalism” comment?]

    Well yes …

    While I’m not averse to the occasional tongue-in-cheek remark, this wasn’t one of those.

    Some people seem to have a problem with the dichotomy between forms of governance and economic organisation. They clearly overlap, but they are not quite the same thing.

    While the vast majority of capitalist societies in history have not had fascist governments, a handful have. In addition to the best known — Germany and Italy, one might add Salazar in Portugal and Franco’s regime in Spain. The Ba’athist regime in Iraq post 1968 probably counted as fascist and so might the post-Pahlavi regime in Iran.

    There are in addition some purely military-bonapartist capitalist regimes — the Pinochet regime in Chile — and for the 25 years post-WW2 just about anywhere in south and central America — Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, Panama, Brazil, Uruguay, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Brazil and so forth.

    Technically, the Nazi regime in Germany probably ceased being technically “fascist” after the Night of the Long Knives as from that time on it ruled through regular uniformed officers employed by the state (the SS and Gestapo) — and so is better regarded as military bonapartist. Fascism entails resort to gangs of paramilitary thugs operating parallel to the state and independent of it. Generally, once those who are using the gangs win, they want to get control over their thugs, with the consequence that they either induct them or discard them, sometimes lethally as happened with the Sturmabteil. Interestingly, the SA included those in Germany who fancied the idea of seizing all capitalist property in the name of the nation — grouped loosely around the Strasser wing — and this was undoubtedly one of the reasons why the SA had to be liquidated. Otto Strasser was expelled from the Nazis in 1930 and his brother Gregor was murdered in the Night of the Long Knives. While both were hardened anti-semites, their ultranationalist populism led them to want to “complete” as they saw it, the Nazi revolution by taking on the big banks and having some sort of artisan-based system of industry.

    Fascism (and military bonapartism for that matter) are simply amongst the tools that the capitalist class can use when its rule is perceived to be at risk. Mostly, it can rule perfectly well through one or other colaition of social democrats, labourites or conservatives. Its rule is not threatened and their practical inconvenience from any of these regimes is pretty minimal, and when it isn’t they can simply defect to whatever the rival party is at the time.

    As briefly pointed out the other evening, in Australia, the Gini index from 1982 rose more or less continuously through the period of the Hawke, Keating and Howard regimes with only minor fluctuations. The wealthy got relatively wealthier, while their property remained secure. Both parties, whatever their differences on this or that point, served the capitalist system very well indeed. It’s hard to imagine why in such circumstances, any significant section of the boss class would take the risks associated with backing fascist gangs or instituting bonapartist rule. They probably fear and loath each other a good deal more than they fear insurgent workers, probably with good reason. Having a state that is to some extent, at arms’ length from them, and a court system that can’t be rigged in favour of one fraction of them against another suits them far better. And as the Packer-Gyngell punch up the other night showed, the consequences of one gang of them having untrammelled power could be unpleasant.

  8. Looking at the state budget i tend to agree with Zommster as people do tend to focus on the local and in my experience they tend to look at the whole term rather than just the pre-election goodies which tend too only excite the base.

    Despite the headlines i don’t think this budget will save the government as these projects are off into the future.

    I’m not sure how far behind the government is currently but i question if this budget will do more than provide a floor under the primary vote.

  9. Law Council of Australia opposes proposed changes to Racial Discrimination Act

    [19. Accordingly, the Law Council opposes the current proposals and strongly counsels a careful and broad ranging investigation of improvements to the Australian laws regarding hate speech as applied in respect of racial, religious, gender based or any other characteristic.]

  10. Steve 777 341 re attacks

    absolutely right The “Bosses” want Thatcherism in OZ
    +_________________
    What they want is Thatcherism(actually John Howard,to their surprise didn’t deliver that) and I suspect you’re right too…Abbott is a bit of a Santamaria man and not quite right for their purposes( never trust the Catholics )

    Murdoch and his IPA mates are the core of the attack. In a recent book on Murdoch it was shown how he loathes the welfare state(likes 19th century charity for “the deserving poor” though )

    So I agree this is what it is all about…what Naomi Klien calls”Disaster Capitalism” or better still “Vulture Capitalism”

  11. sceptic

    Thanks for that link it appears to me that crooks have not got any specific requirements about who they get their deals from they will take whatever they can from anyone.

    Shameful and so much for Democracy. I hope some of them do gaol time!

  12. “@BernardKeane: Can’t blame Fairfax hacks for going on strike. They sack editorial staff but Paul Sheehan continues to have a job? WTF?”

  13. Looking at Murdoch’s attitude towards the welfare state, i do wonder where it came from, it didn’t come from his mother who was a very well known philanthropist.

  14. “@oz_f: Australian journo flogs picture of Fairfax strike off Fairfax journo, doesn’t RT, reposts as “picture via senior Fairfax journo””

  15. mb

    Just heard newsbreak on radio that Napthine is coming under fire for misleading voters on fhe proposed rail link. As i posted earlier, he has been talking about a station a fishermans bend, but in actual fact station will be near the casino. What arse clowns

  16. So papers have “Treasurer for Sale”, then day or so later, have we have questions regarding the independence of the “senior economist” on a secretive LNP fundraising party (North Sydney Forum), which is in NSW, and has been mentioned a few times at ICAC?

    Is it me, or am I drawing a long bow?

  17. Victoria

    Not surprised to hear that Napthine is being under fire.

    Many will be wondering why redo recently was increased as its clear the government is going very well financially.

  20. “@14outof20: @Rob_Stott Unless it’s Hitler, or maybe the pope. (And look, I have to admit I’d probably cheer if Abbott lost his job.) #MaybeImAFuckwit”

  23. I don’t think Andrew Bolt’s opinion on Waleed Aly is all that controversial. Definitely not ‘racist’ either. I myself am rather unimpressed with Waleed’s brand of left-intellectual religious apologia, in much the same way I’m unimpressed with the innumerable intellectual Christian apologists that are wheeled out from time to time by a media just dying to give religion a free pass.

    If indeed he was discussing Boko Haram without mentioning the fact they’re a Muslim organisation, I would agree that’s a glaring omission, one that needs to be referenced to fully explain their motivations in kidnapping girls who dare to get an education.

  24. Ha!

    [The ABC’s news department is not over-resourced, according to Malcolm Turnbull’s review into whether the broadcaster and SBS could work more efficiently.

    The final report of the efficiency review, by Seven West Media’s former chief financial officer, Peter Lewis, will be handed to the communications minister before the budget next week, but any cuts to the ABC budget will be a separate consideration.

    Guardian Australia understands Lewis failed to find “mountains of fat” for cutting.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/07/abc-news-department-not-over-resourced-coalition-review-finds?CMP=twt_gu

  27. Disaster Capitalism for the Ukraine..courtesy of the USA /IMF
    ________________________________________
    Paul Craig Roberts ,Reagans Asst Tresurer and Ed Wall St Journal and once solid Repub…..and now a savage criitic of US policies , sees the “Disaster Capitalism” scenario being imposed by the new coup-installed Govt in Kiev.. and forcing the most savege cuts and costs on ordinary Ukrainian,who will suffer terribly as a result

    He calls it”The Looting of the Ukraine” which will make it’s people poorer than even the Greeks who have had the full treatment
    from the EU/IMP Banksters,and are in terrible state

    see below”The Looting of the Ukraine”…so we think Hockey is bad news.?..pity the Ukrainian people

    http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/03/06/looting-ukraine-begun/

  29. “@zdaniel: BREAKING Const Court in #Thailand says the removal of the official who brought the case against .@PouYingluck is unconstitutional”

  30. The Age today has two great letters from academic(Profs from Melb and Monash) taking up the “Disaster Capitalism” theme and pointing out that Thatcher was a great exponent of the idea so that’s Hockey’s inspiration..Thatcher

  31. I hope that Fairfax’s troubles encourage some here to buy the paper in the morning (or take out a subscription). They may not be much, but there is little else keeping the barbarians at bay.

  32. “@ThatPickering: While #Fairfax is on #strike don’t read The Age or online either! Don’t cross the picket. Stand with the journos standing up to this!”

  33. Thatch had some good points but like any political idea she was unable or unwilling to be flexible and open to the need for the policy to be refined.

    For some unknown reason she refused to try and bring the north along but rather allowed it too rot.

  36. Zoid, your reading ability is not so bad. Hockey being cornered, their goes PMship,again. So,who are the dark forces lining up behind?

  40. [John Robertson ‏@jrobertsonmp 3m
    Now more than ever NSW needs a well resourced & independent media not an outsourced news service. I support the campaign by #fairfax staff.]

  41. Some sobering reading here today.

    lizzie’s posts on the NBN, Barrier Reef dredging & rent seeking to name a few.

    PB, the informed persons blog.

  44. bemused
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 4:15 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari if you are around.

    I don’t know if you have sorted out your wi-fi problems, but this appeared in the press recently and may be worth reading. http://www.theage.com.au/digital-life/computers/gadgets-on-the-go/wifi-woes–is-your-home-a-dead-zone-20140430-zr1uk.html?eid=email:nnn-13omn628-ret_newsl-membereng:nnn-04/11/2013-digital_life-dom-technology-nnn-age-u&campaign_code=13ITE010&promote_channel=edmail&mbnr=MTY1NTMz

    Thank you so much for this I have got the Microsoft guy (who I am friendly with) for the whole area to Qld border explained the problem and what is in the article is basically what he is saying. He went to Asus and miracle what they wouldn’t tell me they have told him. recommended an AsusUBS-N66 DB wireless N900, ie to cover the 2.4 to 5.4 g. It is especially built for the up to date tablet manufactured after 2013, ie mine. Got it for me, amazing about $40 less including postage than quoted anywhere. Came out to instal in best place bang, I mentioned how when I downloaded last Adobe update how it seemed to take over the screen of laptop and became slow. Evidently this can happen when down loading adobe a virus(not bad) creeps in despite the virus check. The result is he will take the laptop and router away on Friday(the day before I fly out) to work on at his leisure while I am away. He has already shown me where he is going to put the extender and also relocate the router when I come back. Evidently it is a wall jutting out, a double brick house on 3rd floor. The other thing is he had a look at my old tablet with the cracked screen and says he can re screen it with a generic screen and it will work again Amazing.

    Once again thank you for thinking of me, I have printed out the article

  45. Funny tweet in response to Kate not being able to tweet ICAC tomorrow

    [@Kate_McClymont If a Liberal falls in #ICAC and no-one is there to tweet it, are they really corrupt?]

  46. Fran

    “While I’m not averse to………………..
    ……………………………………..
    ……………………………………..
    …..untrammelled power could be unpleasant”.

    I take that as humour and I blame myself for asking.

  47. lizzie

    Thanks and to BK and everyone here who goes to the trouble of reading & posting the links. All I have to do is drop by every hour for a breather from work related duties to see what new gems have been posted up. 🙂

  49. [ ICAC probe inches closer to Abbott
    The Independent Commission Against Corruption’s investigation is inching closer to the Prime Minister’s office. Questions have emerged over Tony Abbott’s role in selecting Karen McNamara as Liberal candidate for the federal seat of Dobell despite doubts over her fund-raising claims.
    http://m.afr.com/p/national/icac_probe_inches_closer_to_abbott_tlnRTpGLPgO4FzI08Ha5BO ]
    The PM must hold an hour long presser and answer every hypothetical question the journo’s can think of!

  50. [394
    mari
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 4:50 pm | PERMALINK
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 4:15 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari if you are around.

    I don’t know if you have sorted out your wi-fi problems, but this appeared in the press recently and may be worth reading. http://www.theage.com.au/digital-life/computers/gadgets-on-the-go/wifi-woes–is-your-home-a-dead-zone-20140430-zr1uk.html?eid=email:nnn-13omn628-ret_newsl-membereng:nnn-04/11/2013-digital_life-dom-technology-nnn-age-u&campaign_code=13ITE010&promote_channel=edmail&mbnr=MTY1NTMz

    Thank you so much for this I have got the Microsoft guy (who I am friendly with) for the whole area to Qld border explained the problem and what is in the article is basically what he is saying. He went to Asus and miracle what they wouldn’t tell me they have told him. recommended an AsusUBS-N66 DB wireless N900, ie to cover the 2.4 to 5.4 g. It is especially built for the up to date tablet manufactured after 2013, ie mine. Got it for me, amazing about $40 less including postage than quoted anywhere. Came out to instal in best place bang, I mentioned how when I downloaded last Adobe update how it seemed to take over the screen of laptop and became slow. Evidently this can happen when down loading adobe a virus(not bad) creeps in despite the virus check. The result is he will take the laptop and router away on Friday(the day before I fly out) to work on at his leisure while I am away. He has already shown me where he is going to put the extender and also relocate the router when I come back. Evidently it is a wall jutting out, a double brick house on 3rd floor. The other thing is he had a look at my old tablet with the cracked screen and says he can re screen it with a generic screen and it will work again Amazing.

    Once again thank you for thinking of me, I have printed out the article]
    Pleased to have been of assistance.

    That article just came out at the right time.

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