Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second in what looks like it might be a regular monthly series of Galaxy polls finds Labor opening a lead after a dead heat in last month’s poll.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,880 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Newspoll 2-4 May

    53-47 2PP to Labor

    Primaries: Coalition 38, Labor 34, Greens 14, Others 14

    Abbott: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 56
    Shorten: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 41

    PPM: Abbott 40, Shorten 38

  3. Well they have national exposure for their protest at least.

    Ahhhh calming music from the ABC, while the riot squad intervenes?? 🙂

  7. Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Jonathan Swan ‏@jonathanvswan 3m

    Pyne is loving this. Doing him a huge favour.

    There is a reason why next few years, our kids education and behavior will go down.

    I blame people like Pyne.

  8. Tony

    What a wimp

    Students with some anger. Wow! campuses where there is energy other than in the Christian fellowship

    Now I am old enough to tutt tutt with the best of them but it is good to see some passion

  10. The first questioner to Pyne was interrupting him before he could even answer, then the second ‘question’ was an almost endless rant. Their points are valid, but they’re idiots. Not helping the cause.

  12. liyana

    I have no problem with students being heard. Three chants would have been enough. The questioners were doing a good job.

  13. This is one of those episodes of QANDA where i really htink Jones should be fielding questions to the other members of the panel.

  16. “@phantomdiorama: At least the Socialist Alternative declared who they were unlike the young Libs group last week #qanda”

  19. [Abbott: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 56
    Shorten: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 41]

    If true, then seemingly in line with earlier polling.

  24. I was happy to see those students protest on QandA and use there free speach. I’m also more then happy to see them pay more money for ‘Their’ degree’s.

  26. “@kateausburn: J Roskam, IPA: “Only on the ABC two questions from Socialist Alternative.” Tony Jones: “And only on the ABC, the IPA to answer them.” #qanda”

  27. why not activism. wtf has pyne been doing for years – interrupting upstaging. he is terrible in education – most of europe still has fee educ, and public campuses in america has much lower fees – private campuses in us have high proportion of free scholarships – he is trying to turn education into a business not a public enterprise or funded sector — also trying to dismantle public, by unhinging private and public at federal level and underfund states – he is contemptible in that role

  29. ummel
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    I was happy to see those students protest on QandA and use there free speach. I’m also more then happy to see them pay more money for ‘Their’ degree’s.

    ——–right winger …did you have a funded education? most students have been suffering for years having to work too much while studying – go on tell me that’s a good thing, cos it aint

  30. [rummel
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    I was happy to see those students protest on QandA and use there free speach. I’m also more then happy to see them pay more money for ‘Their’ degree’s.]

    BINGO!

    …and I suspect they have assisted the government convince people (the voters/tax payers in particular) that the government is right and the students just think they are entitled.

  31. [ J Roskam, IPA: “Only on the ABC two questions from Socialist Alternative.”]

    I have no time for SA, but silencing them, as Mr IPA appears to be suggesting, is as stupid and extreme as much of SA

  33. If anyone had said in September that, less than eight months later, Labor would be polling 53%, any one of us would have told them they were dreaming.

  35. verything
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    I was happy to see those students protest on QandA and use there free speach. I’m also more then happy to see them pay more money for ‘Their’ degree’s.

    BINGO!

    …and I suspect they have assisted the government convince people (the voters/tax payers in part

    —–not another one. whatever happened to this list – i thought it was just a bit pink radical or something.

  38. [Anna Burke shining tonight. For some reason Pyne letting her speak]

    Maybe Pyne learned something from the last parliament. ABurke still has the ability to kick his arse if he f*cks up.

  39. SA and green left are important parts of political spectrum – the dictatorial howard inspired right of course would try to stop free speech and make the left a dirty word – remember the recent past folk, 2005-2006, we began to watch what we said to each other for a month or two, surveillance and anti terrorism. i hate the libs

  41. Mathias Cormann ‏@MathiasCormann 1m

    Only reason our debt is lower than others was cos of strong position in 2007. Labor spent too much and put us on terrible trajectory. #qanda

    LOL :/

  44. working while doing a degree is the best education you can get… Life exprerence out side of the sandstone curtain.

  47. [working while doing a degree is the best education you can get… Life exprerence out side of the sandstone curtain.]

    Unlike when your generation went to Uni attendance is kept and there is a deliberate policy of Unis to prevent students from working if they’re studying full time so they can focus on study. As someone who has had some difficulty getting a job that fit with my Uni schedule, and has therefore had to defer to get at least something, your comment comes across as somewhat arrogant.

  48. rummel

    [working while doing a degree is the best education you can get]

    Yeah, even at 50 I still have nighmares about making the f-ing rent & whether I’ll be laid off again.

  49. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Certainly not a flock to Labor in the polling.    ]

    Take a look at Bludgertrack later in the week and you’ll see whether there’s been a strong move towards Labor or not. On these figures they would probably win 25+ seats.

  50. rummel
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:20 pm | PERMALINK
    working while doing a degree is the best education you can get… Life exprerence out side of the sandstone curtain.

    —-how about 30 hours a week. have you taught students who coast through degrees, spend barely a full day a week behind sandstone doing arts? even other degrees. education fees and lack of student support are already killing higher ed.

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