Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second in what looks like it might be a regular monthly series of Galaxy polls finds Labor opening a lead after a dead heat in last month’s poll.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,880 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 38
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  2. I hope Robb is watching Four Corners about disgraceful conduct by the Commonwealth Bank and financial planners.

  8. Mikehilliard,

    [Us & many others might be expecting him to go the rabid dog but perhaps by reining it in he’s doing us all a favor, short & long term.]

    I think being aggressive leads you to make more mistakes. If you make mistakes then it takes attention away from your opponents. However, I acknowledge that’s only my opinion, as I’ve never been keen on aggression and charisma in politics, while many others are. I just hope Shorten doesn’t match being “methodical” with dithering, which is something we’d only likely see much later in this term.

  11. zoomster@1698

    don

    Popularity is not often a guide to what is actually needed.


    Indeed not – but because PJK was unpopular, almost every good decision he made as Prime Minister was wiped out within a few years.

    What, like floating the dollar?

    Removing direct control of interest rates?

    Strong links with Indonesia?

    APEC?

    The Superannuation scheme?

    Come now.

  12. BW

    The Commonwealth Back has 1.5 compliance officers to monitor 700 financial advisers advising 300,000 customers.

  13. guytaur
    [“@zdaniel: Lots of tweets from Bangkok, Yangon, Chiang Mai regarding what seems to be an earthquake. Stand by.”]

    6.0 on Thai, Lao, Burma border region

    Courtesy of USGS

  16. Dio,

    [The Commonwealth Back has 1.5 compliance officers]

    ??? Is the 0.5 a chimpanzee or something? Or am I slow and you’re being facetious… (as happens often)

  18. i think SMH and Age knew exactly what they were doing today – they are after abbott – and also checking the financial reforms of this hypocritical treasurer who wants to trash country for his smug business values. but they are mainly after abbott big time

  19. don

    you missed the ‘as Prime Minister’.

    Programs he introduced as Treasurer lasted because Bob Hawke was popular.

  22. i already subscribe online and weekends – will buy weekday print editions for next three weeks to support fearless independent non murdoch journalism – well anything that give back to the dogs what they gave

  23. If Shorten does low key boring reliable I won’t have a problem with that.

    If doing so needs other ALP frontbenchers to step up and do the fighting, inspiring etc that’s a good thing IMO.

    A bit less presidential, a bit more team-based. Less messiah, less expectations, less disappointment.

    But there’s a long time to go until the next election. Let’s see how it plays out.

  24. shellbell @ 1705: I’m not a lawyer, but in a previous life I recall being told by one that prosecutions for criminal libel (as it then was) were reserved for serious cases in which it appeared that defamatory statements were being used to undermine public officials in the performance of their duties – which seems to have been precisely the intent in the cases which have come to ICAC’s attention.

  28. Christopher Pyne makes me wanna cry- he has no empathy – this kid and his friends look very upset and I really feel for them. These are the kids who will be left behind by this heartless government. Sorry qanda comment

  29. Bugler

    I think one person was a part-time compliance officer, hence the 1.5 FTE.

    ASIC basically didn’t care how bad the bank was.

  35. Hmmm. Mod Lib is a fan of the “YIKES!”. Have we seen Mod Lib and PvO in the same room at the same time?

  36. 10 years are all dancing the toe-knee-abs-butt dance – even at catholic schools. much worse that julia. he will choke on his own medicine

  40. It would be funny if there is some sort of terrible Newspoll for the government that causes them to junk a bunch of their spending cuts and tax increases, which then just causes the budget to deteriorate in a year’s time.

  41. [Hmmm. Mod Lib is a fan of the “YIKES!”. Have we seen Mod Lib and PvO in the same room at the same time?]

    They are similarly objective and wise.

  46. It twitter is any indication my prediction of Qanda being totally overrun by Pyne and Roskam was accurate.

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