Seat of the week: Wakefield

Seat of the week visits South Australia one last time to cover Wakefield on the northern fringe of Adelaide, held for Labor since 2007 by Nick Champion.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Wakefield extends from outer northern Adelaide to rural territory as far as Clare 100 kilometres to the north, with overwhelming Labor strength around Elizabeth and Salisbury partly balanced by support for the Liberals in the Clare Valley. It has existed in name since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, but its complexion changed dramatically when its southern neighbour Bonython was abolished when the state’s representation was reduced from 12 seats to 11 in 2004. Previously a conservative rural and outskirts seat encompassing the Murray Valley and Yorke Peninsula, it came to absorb the outer suburban industrial centre of Elizabeth while retaining the satellite town of Gawler, the Clare Valley wine-growing district, and the Gulf St Vincent coast from Two Wells north to Port Wakefield.

Prior to 2004, Wakefield was won by the major conservative party of the day at every election except 1938 and 1943, when it was won by Labor, and 1928, when it was won by the Country Party. The Liberal member from 1983 to 2004 was Neil Andrew, who spent the last six years of his parliamentary career serving as Speaker. Andrew at first considered challenging Patrick Secker for preselection in Barker after the 2004 redistribution turned Wakefield’s 14.7% margin into a notional Labor margin of 1.5%, but instead opted to retire. Wakefield was nonetheless retained for the Liberals at the ensuing election by David Fawcett, who picked up a 2.2% swing off a subdued Labor vote around Elizabeth to unseat Martyn Evans, who had held Bonython for Labor since 1994. Fawcett’s slender margin was demolished by a 7.3% swing in 2007, but he would return to parliament as a Senator after the 2010 election.

Wakefield has since been held for Labor by Nick Champion, a former state party president, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association official and staffer for state Industrial Relations Minister Michael Wright. The SDA link identifies him with the potentate of the South Australian Right, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. He nonetheless went against Farrell by coming out in support of Kevin Rudd in the days before his unsuccessful February 2012 leadership challenge, resigning as caucus secretary to do so. As with Labor’s other South Australian newcomers from the 2007 election, Champion had no trouble retaining his seat at the 2010 election, a 5.4% swing boosting his margin to 12.0%. However, the seat has since returned to the marginal zone following a redistribution in which it traded an area around Salisbury for Lydoch and Williamstown east of Gawler, reducing the margin to 10.3%, and a 7.1% swing to the Liberals at the 2013 election, which has left it at 3.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,933 comments on “Seat of the week: Wakefield”

Comments Page 52 of 59
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  1. [Centre
    Posted Wednesday, April 30, 2014 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    I agree with Abbott let’s get the budget back on sustainable footing. ]

    So – show us your arithmetic on how he will do that.

    The deceit tax will raise a bit over $2 Billion x 4 years – call it a total of $9 Billion all up – IF he doesn’t crash the economy – which is a pittance of the amount required to use your words – “put the budget back on sustainable footing.”

    Plus it fails to address the structural deficit.

    The following matters as posted by AA last night would however, they would change the structure of tax collections

    [ AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, April 29, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    $5 billion by stopping the subsidy to mining companies

    $16 billion be re-introducing the tax on super earnings over $100,000

    $1.9 billion stopping FBT rorts

    $100 million a week interest by getting back the borrowed $9 billion given to the RBA]

    That all adds up to about $23 Billion each year AND each year the savings would increase – but $92 Billion plus over 4 years.

    Your arithmetic now please.

  2. [So you were 🙂 I’m being attacked in every direction :lol:]

    Maybe because your trolling has cast too wide a net?

    Something to consider

  3. [ Centre
    Posted Wednesday, April 30, 2014 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    Julia/Swanny were happy with the agreement they reached with the miners. ]

    It still needs more work to capture boom time profits – which are gone for a while anyway.

  5. kakuru

    Mega George in his GG days was shouting about the structural deficit Howie and the Hammock Dweller were dooming us to from way back. Sadly no heed was taken.

  9. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 24s

    #Essential Poll Would you consider becoming a political party member: Yes 15 No 72 Already a member 1 #auspol

  10. Tom H

    I’m putting forward my views. You call it trolling…whoopy for you!

    Have you said anything of substance?

    LOL

    Dave, yes, Abbott can do more that would not be too detrimental to the economy.

  12. zoid

    Yes, Abbott said everyone must contribute.

    I think Labor are playing it well so far, but let’s wait for the final details 😉

  13. Well there you have it:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 59s

    #Essential Poll Purchasing 58 fighter jets for $12 billion: Approve 30 Disapprove 52 #auspol

  17. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 41s

    #Essential Poll Prince William becoming King of Australia in the future: Approve 54 Disapprove 26 #auspol

  20. [The interesting thing from Essential is that the ALP and Liberal primary vote are both at 38%. Keep it up Tony.]

    I must admit I’m having trouble reconciling that with the same people’s view on a republic. I guess that shows how on the nose Abbott’s policies are.

  21. Centre@2564

    Dave

    No it’s not inadequate – that’s why many are screaming, they don’t want to pay

    It is totally inadequate for the reasons set out above in #2551 and it fails to address the structural deficit..

    The delicious irony is people are squealing because abbott encourage and fostered such a response – something that he doesn’t get nor do you.

    But his own creature – of NO is now biting him on the bum.

    Your arithmetic please.

  22. PUP’s Jacqui Lambie compares parental leave scheme to eugenics.

    “It’s clear that the Liberal’s paid parental leave scheme is a not-so-subtle attempt at discouraging Australians with the undesirable trait of being poor (when compared with those who are rich) from reproducing.

    Why else would Mr Abbott and his supporters champion a government scheme which ensures rich Australians receive more than double, sometimes triple the amount of parental leave that poor working Australians receive?” she said in a statement.

    “The only fair way to administer any government-sanctioned paid parental leave scheme is as per the Palmer United policy – and ensure that all Australian parents and babies are treated equally.

    Otherwise those championing a government scheme which clearly tries to influence or control who becomes parents – must be associated with eugenics – and all the historic, moral and political baggage attached to this reviled social theory.”

    “If the Liberals really want to improve Australian society then they should allow our children to access free university degrees and visits to their GPs, not introduce a sly social policy which divides us into rich and poor – and attempts to influence which group reproduces the most

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pups-jacqui-lambie-compares-parental-leave-scheme-to-eugenics-20140430-zr1w1.html#ixzz30LzgwkJx

  24. Reckon I will start a folder of Jacquie Lambie’s quotes.

    Might prove interesting.

    I thought she may have been a little Paulinish, but clearly doesn’t need an explanation for her explications, so far.

    Well, only two that I read. Checking out QnA transcript.

  25. [Shame him now so that he will drop his plans and maybe he will get a better chance to be re-elected.]

    When a two-week averaged poll (Essential) is reporting a sustained slide in your support, well into an election losing position, and so early on in your first term; when you are not liked or respected or trusted by the voters to start with; when you have pissed off at least half your own party, repeatedly; and when the Murdoch stable is starting to turn on you; then you have a serious problem.

    Abbott is just seriously damaged goods now, and perhaps more importantly, self-damaged goods, and he clearly does not have the political capital, “people skills”, or policies to turn that around.

    The Libs might recover in time for the next election, but I doubt Tones will be at the helm.

  26. BK. I think she’s got it.

    Oddly enough, Pauline would probably have embraced eugenics.

    Had she had it explained to her.

  29. crikey whitey

    Despite the lurid headline she does have a point. Like back in the 1980’s Singapore gave all sorts of goodies to university graduates if they married another university student.

  30. “@1057darwin: Which CLP pollie could defect to PUP next? Willem Westra Van Holthe has told @VickiKerrigan it’s not him. Watch this space”

  31. Yes, Poroti, she does have a point. I think the subject was alluded to on PB. Not as bluntly, probably.

    Ah well, all grist welcome. That’s politics.

    Liked the final para.

  33. Maybe if the campaign for the Rebublic ever gets off the ground again those campaigning for a republic should remind voters that after we become a republic the British royals will always be welcome in Australia. Also, that there’ll still be lots of pictures of them in the Womens’ Weekly, New Idea and celebrity gossip shows, along with pictures of Hollywood stars, reality TV contestants and the Kardashians (whoever they are).

  35. ru

    [I see the HSU has referred Cathy Jackson to the slushie RC and Fair Work for misappropriating ~ $225,000. Surely her partner has to stand aside as commissioner?]

    Only for matters dealing with the HSU.

    Sounds like the referral had been a long time coming. The HSU guy said it was a surprise to no one.

  36. crikey whitey

    After her years in the army she may not be fluent in “subtle and nuanced” let alone PR flack and meeja bullshittery. 🙂

  38. Poroti.

    She was out of her element on QnA. But not dumb.

    Her service years will equip her with the political cut and thrust. Fairly smartly.

    Hope she does NOT become too ‘nuanced.’

    Did you read what she said about politicians and Anzac Day.

    If not I will post it again.

  39. Interesting CIS report

    suggests

    -making rich families pay for their kids going to public school

    -increasing class sizes due to the evidence that smaller classes don’t lead to better outcomes
    [AT least $2.5 billion could be spent more effectively in schools every year by implementing a range of measures including ­removing maximum limits on class sizes, charging high-­income families to attend government schools and offering bursaries for poorer students to go to private schools. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/charge-rich-kids-to-attend-public-schools/story-fn59nlz9-1226900133177#

  40. They are mad. Who is running the Liberal shambles?

    [The Liberal party federal director, Brian Loughnane, has offered “business observers” a breakfast with the prime minister, Tony Abbott, and access to his ministers’ chiefs of staff for $11,000, at the same time as New South Wales Liberal party members face scrutiny in the Independent Commission Against Corruption over influence peddling.

    The $11,000 price tag – including GST – is pitched just below the $12,000 threshold at which political donations have to be disclosed to the Australian Electoral Commission.

    An email from Loughnane went out to potential business observers on Tuesday afternoon, after two days of hearings in the Icac inquiry into the Eightbyfive slush fund, which, Icac has heard, took banned donations from property developers to fund specific Liberal party campaigns.]

  44. “The NBA has no place for bigots – whatshisname is banned for life’

    Heard as I passed by the TV room.

    Looks like someone doesn’t agree with Brandis.

  45. [#Essential Poll Prince William becoming King of Australia in the future: Approve 54 Disapprove 26 #auspol]

    Nobody wants Charlie.

  49. dave@2584

    deblonay@2582

    Is it possible that REX/ESJ/are the same person ??

    both have a very similar line of Bullshit…real Menzies House Stuff

    Rex is ‘Rosemour’ – the same hysteria.

    No way.

    Rosemour didn’t buy into the cult of Julia while Rex was right into it. Don’t you remember him running ‘Treason Watch’ for anyone with the least criticism of Julia?

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