Essential Research: 50-50

Following on from the weekend’s radical Nielsen result, Essential Research records only slight changes in voting intention this week. Also featured: support for campaign advertising caps, the minimum wage and fair trade agreements, and a wary view of Palmer United’s Senate balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:

• A semi-regular question on leader attributes records a slight decline in sentiment towards Bill Shorten since the question was last asked in October, with “intelligent” and “understands the problems facing Australia” down six points and “arrogant”, “superficial”, “erratic” and “narrow-minded” respectively up five, six, seven and eight. Tony Abbott’s ratings are somewhat more negative, with “arrogant” up four points and “out of touch with ordinary people” up five.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose abolition of the minimum wage, with only 15% supportive.

• Eighty-four per cent of respondents were in favour of spending caps on campaign advertising by political parties, and 78% for caps on advertising by third parties. Opinion here was consistent by party support.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of the free-trade agreement with Japan, versus 13% who disapprove, while the respective numbers for free-trade agreements generally are 49% and 11%. Coalition supporters were most in favour on both counts, while Greens supporters were most opposed.

• Thirty-two per cent think Palmer United’s balance of power position in the Senate bad for democracy versus 27% for good and 19% for no difference. Major party supporters recorded similar responses, but 62% of those in the “others” category were approving.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. Steve777:

    I’d happily take your rain. We’ve had a shortfall of rain here, and it only seems to be getting worse.

  2. Having just read a Fairfax item about the terms under which Sydney airport can bid to build and operate an airport at BC, I am prepared to speculate now that it Will never happen, certainly not as a major second city airport like gatwick is to heathrow.
    In a best case scenario construction would not start till 2016 and it would be another 10 years before the airport is operational.
    Plenty of chances one would think for Max to wield his axe and stall the project until it just dies a natural death and Sydney airports monopoly is protected.

  3. Bush fire Bill
    +++++++++++
    I agree totally with your post re Pistorious(Pissed Off I call him)
    If he were not a noted sportsman we would never have heard of the case…Murder is the main sport these days in South Africa and there a many such each day of the week..yet the BBC TV each night has a bloody team of reporters there

    Aa for the royals and that child,we are doomed to that endless saga …her next pregnency with every detail made public …like those TV boring shows …quite common…showing women having babies…is there a more boring topic than that..and who would watch them
    Dog save us !

  4. Back from holidays — we spent a week at Jervis Bay, where it rained almost every day, but mostly in a nice “English picnic weather” sort of way.

    Got glimpses of the moon doing its thang on our way back down the Hume.

  5. I said: “don’t forget Gillard…..she was a big fan of employing on the 457 visa too, wasn’t she?”

    That’s one.

    Nothing compared to thousands Abbott has allowed by changing the rules.

    Abbott even stated that the Northern Zone, with its special tax concessions would be built by 457 workers.

  6. We could have the Governor General Kerr-park?

    Perfect place for horse riding and walking the dog; so they could defecate

  7. The MPs and mayors whose political futures are at stake are cautious. The member for Chifley, Ed Husic, who has a 12.2 per cent buffer, is an opponent because of the impact the airport will have on traffic

    Being from WA I was of the belief that all the traffic problems were the fault of refugees…that’s what the Liberals told us…..and they never lie…do they????

  8. So the mail from the MPs I’ve heard are as follows:

    – Alex Hawke insists that the same curfew conditions apply to Badgerys Creek as Mascot.

    Agreed 100%.

    – Ed Husic wants to look at the fine detail and infrastructure commitments before making a decision.

    Very wise.

    – The Member for Lindsay is deeply concerned of noise pollution and traffic congestion around her electorate.

    She shows concern for her constituents.

    For those who do not live anywhere near western Sydney…I suggest you zip 🙂

  9. I would have much preferred “Chifley University” to UWS….although it might have tempted Abbott to change “Sydney University” to “John Howard University”!

  10. No names after politicians please
    _______________________________
    In Kennets’s time we had a new bridge named after his corrupt idol …Bolte…but by and large in Melb we have been spared much of that naming after politicians
    Let’s hope the new Sydney airport isn’t so named after some leader …like in some dubious People’s Republic of Whatever

    Wasn’t there an Aussie woman air-ace in the 1920ies from Australia…what about her?

  11. Listened to an interview with an expert (of some kind) on the radio early this afternoon, who said a spend of about $10 billion (apparently the figure being floated before Abbott’s announcement) would be ‘about right’ for a modern airport – with the other infrastructure, such as rail, as add-ons.

    So $2 billion isn’t going to cut it.

    He also said that government would need to make at least the initial investment, to give investors confidence.

    So this would seem to be a Clayton’s decision – ‘yes, we’re all for it, but alas, it can’t be built because we haven’t got investors willing to stump up the cash…”

  12. poroti,

    [Acerbic Conehead

    How about a version of “Home on the Range/Grange” ?]

    BOF has just remembered what happened to the bottle of Grange. Sing along in sympathy with him as he is being chased around the kitchen by his empty-bottle-wielding better half.

    Cue: “Home on the Range” by Gene Autry.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJJGikSD9ho

    O give me a home where the missus don’t moan
    Sends me out to the kitchen to cook
    Had a disaster one day, she still makes me pay
    Sends me off to the doghouse to sook
    :- (
    Woe, woe is the Grange
    Ended up in a pot of Irish Stew
    The wife did her block, I thought it was ruddy beef stock
    Shouldn’t have drunk all that cloudy home brew
    :- (
    As well as the home brew, I had a bottle of Spu
    Wasn’t able to focus too clear
    The missus yelled, “you’ve only one functioning brain cell”
    For making a friggin’ stew turn out so dear
    :- (
    Woe, woe is the Grange
    Ended up in a pot of Irish Stew
    The wife did her block, I thought it was ruddy beef stock
    Shouldn’t have drunk all that cloudy home brew

  13. University of Sydney is pretty standard name, for example in Tokyo there is University of Tokyo.

    Anyone that dares to name it John Howard University should be shot, buried, and cremated.

    As that is the person who cut University funding while he was in power.

  14. @Zoomster/369

    Do we know if there was a CBA done on this second Airport? As Abbott promised that any project that was going to cost over $100 million was to have a CBA for it?

    https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2013/08/01/tony-abbott-transcript-joint-press-conference-melbourne

    “Can I add something. Look, we have committed that if there is a project of more than $100 million there should be a cost benefit analysis. Our standards are far higher than Labor where they had no cost benefit analysis on a $90 billion National Broadband Network.”

    ???

  15. WOW the final series in the A League starts this weekend.

    Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC

    Central Coast v Adelaide.

    FC and Mariners will go through.

    Week 2:

    Brisbane Yelp v FC

    Western Sydney v Mariners

    Wanders and FC to go through.

    Week 3:

    THIRD WORLD WAR

    Western Sydney Wanderers v Eastern Sydney FC

    We’ll stick it up them 😎

  16. shellbell,

    [Has anyone taken to calling their female beloveds, my lady?]

    I did and got punched. She said, “it’s Your Royal Highness to you…”

    Sheesh!

  17. Why they couldn’t shorten the season with teams playing each other twice with the GF a week before the NRL starts is beyond me?

    It would be huge!

    A-League…they want more – like the Greens.

    Silly 😎

  18. Speaking of royalty, the richest race in Sydney will be run on Saturday, the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

    I’ve been told the winner will have a connection with royalty in some way 😎

  19. [369….zoomster]

    There’s no doubt that airports can be very important economic hubs and they can generate real productivity gains if they’re properly located and serviced. Unfortunately, in Australia most of the gains produced by airports are creamed away by their operators, frequently requiring users of air transport services – passengers and freight-users – to pay unconscionably high prices for the products they need. This profit-gouging can completely undo their productivity-raising potential.

    Unfortunately, airport operation in Australia is basically a rent-collecting racket. Sydney’s new airport will be no different in that respect.

    Of course, if the Commonwealth and State do not do a really first class job with the roads, rail and other utilities, the new airport will not deliver the hoped-for gains. In this respect, the project commencement target seems really unrealistically short.

  20. We should honor our politicians but not until 25 years after they have died and their legacy can be measured more appropriately by history.

  21. So this would seem to be a Clayton’s decision – ‘yes, we’re all for it, but alas, it can’t be built because we haven’t got investors willing to stump up the cash…”

    No doubt pensions, disability, more money ripped from orphans, increase the $6 doctor tax to $20, lower the Newstart payment They could raise the money.

    It would a toss up between building the airport or tax reduction for the wealthy and foreign owned billion dolar miners.

    I reckon the airport will be the loser

  22. Ghost of PJK seems to think Howard got the politics right
    [
    Ghost of PJK ‏@GhostOfPJK 22m

    Badgery’s Creek is is a win/win…finally we get our fucking airport, & simultaneously, a 1 term Abbott govt. #huzzuh #auspol
    ]

  23. briefly @ 378

    That is a good post.

    There are sacrifices, property prices for many in the region will fall relatively and with further infrastructure spending around the area, Mascot can continue to do the job solo for a very long while yet.

  24. Universites are established by state governments. So I don’t know how Abbott would change the University of Sydney Act of New South Wales.

  25. It would seem you need 10 billion to build a real airport,to get the economic benifits you need a real airport. Abbott is going to build something for 2 billion; may be a white elephant or something a real government can spend 10 billion on to turn into a real airport.

  26. deblonay
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 10:15 pm | PERMALINK
    A Circle of Bad advice

    A US writer and former CIA man Phillip Giraldui.looks at Obama’s usually disasteropus foreign policies ,and the dangers of what he calls”democratic activism”…an attempt to remake the woprld in the image of the USA,,,crisis riven though it is…http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/obamas-circle-of-bad-advice/

    ——ah the font of all international wisdom – let out at night – must the positively salivating at news from Ukraine, the honest russian burgers rising up to throw off the chains of western fascism. deblonay will not state his real agenda but one guess it is along line of putin: ‘first i’ll take the ukraine, then the little baltics, they’ll all come home to the motherland’

  27. [ Centre
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    Abbott wants it to have 1 runway yet wants it to operate 24/7.

    I don’t think the Monkey has a clue!
    ]
    Could use it as an alternate runway if Mascot gets fogged in I suppose.

  28. Re a sircle of Bad Advice from The Amereican Conservative
    from Geoffrey..just the usual avoidance of the topic
    ____________
    As usual you ignore the article by a well-know US writer…and a retired CIA official to boot…but choose to attack me…talk about shoot the messenger

    Why are you unable to debate the matter in the article ,but instead indulge in adolescent insults to me
    Perhaps you are an adolescent ?

    However the article looks ate the poor perfomance of the US and blames the use of “democratic activists” not diplomats by Obama…people who seek to remake the world in the US image…a USA riven by internal problems,mass poverty ,a totally corrupt and dysfunctional political system..and hardly able to provide health care for a large part of it’s citizens,but also dominated by a fabuously rich 1%
    wow..some model !!

    The author(and it wasn’t me Geoffrey) who writes widely on US diplomnacy(not that you would know) looks at the chain of debacles from Bush to Obama in US foreign policy …
    Iraq,Afghanistan.,Libya,Syria…and now possibly the Ukraine…all states in ruins…and Putin didn’t do it!!

    The endles war-mongering follies of Washington ,and it’s endless wars are to blame for these ruined states…just look at Iraq…that was going to be a “m0del” of democracy too…but I guess you supported that war ??

    There are many in the USA like Senator Rand Paul and other who write for The American Conservative like Pat Buchanan ,who see the folly of these policies,,,one hopes they win out..for Obama is hardly any better than Bush in the end result

    and making silly remarks about me isn’;t a suibstitute for informed debate…which you seem …in your gheneral ignorance…incapable of conducting

  29. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Nielsen Poll An Australian republic: Support 42 Oppose 51 #auspol]
    This sample was clearly skewed towards farqheads.

  30. The US and the disaster in Libya___
    _________________
    Prof Cole, Mid-East expert of Michigan Uni asks “after the US inspired overthrow of Gadaffi..Libya is descending into a “failed state” and is near total chaos,with the Govt there hardly in control in Tripoli itself and life for Libyan dangerous and miserable

    What can be done to stop it becoming another Somalia on the doorstep of Europe

    35.000 refugees have crossed from Libya to Italy in the first 3 months of the year…recently 4.000 crossed on rafts…mostly young black african males.
    Malta is being overwhelmed ?
    Italy and Malta want to know
    http://www.juancole.com/2014/03/community-libyas-chaos.html

  31. How ungrateful can you get
    ___Israel declines to support the US re Crimea and theUkraine______________________
    After getting $119 Billion dollars since 1948 one would think that at least Israel would be supporting the USA against Russia
    BUT NO WAY
    There is much the anger in Washington but Israelis are staying completely neutral and refusing to criticise Putin
    or take sides

    Oh bitter day..when they are bought …the Israelis don’t stay bought !

    chttp://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/israels-unsurprising-response-to-crimean-annexation/

  32. A Canadian academic looks at the dangers the USA poses to the world order from Counterpunch
    \http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/14/americas-great-leap-toward-global-tyranny/r

  33. [After getting $119 Billion dollars since 1948 one would think that at least Israel would be supporting the USA against Russia
    BUT NO WAY
    There is much the anger in Washington but Israelis are staying completely neutral and refusing to criticise Putin
    or take sides

    Oh bitter day..when they are bought …the Israelis don’t stay bought !]

    You have the wrong way, it is the Israel lobby that buys the US. And there could be a number of reasons they wont support the US on the Crimea…. they could be super pissed (along with Saudi Arabia, Turkey) that the USA wont go in a bomb the shit out of Syria. Or they can see the writing on the wall with Russia, China, India…BRICS…becoming a contrary economic and geopolitical block to the US. They will see where the power is heading…

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