Essential Research: 50-50

Following on from the weekend’s radical Nielsen result, Essential Research records only slight changes in voting intention this week. Also featured: support for campaign advertising caps, the minimum wage and fair trade agreements, and a wary view of Palmer United’s Senate balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:

• A semi-regular question on leader attributes records a slight decline in sentiment towards Bill Shorten since the question was last asked in October, with “intelligent” and “understands the problems facing Australia” down six points and “arrogant”, “superficial”, “erratic” and “narrow-minded” respectively up five, six, seven and eight. Tony Abbott’s ratings are somewhat more negative, with “arrogant” up four points and “out of touch with ordinary people” up five.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose abolition of the minimum wage, with only 15% supportive.

• Eighty-four per cent of respondents were in favour of spending caps on campaign advertising by political parties, and 78% for caps on advertising by third parties. Opinion here was consistent by party support.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of the free-trade agreement with Japan, versus 13% who disapprove, while the respective numbers for free-trade agreements generally are 49% and 11%. Coalition supporters were most in favour on both counts, while Greens supporters were most opposed.

• Thirty-two per cent think Palmer United’s balance of power position in the Senate bad for democracy versus 27% for good and 19% for no difference. Major party supporters recorded similar responses, but 62% of those in the “others” category were approving.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. Now that’s some serious NIMBYism!

    [“Right now if you add up all the cancer rates, respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases and asthma, you’re basically three times more likely to die in western Sydney than on the eastern seaboard, and I don’t think planes carry filters with them,” Mr Bali said.

    “They actually add to the air pollution in the area, so this will be a death sentence for western Sydney residents if you whack an airport in there, since the air can’t flow out of western Sydney as far as pollution is concerned.”

    Asked if his reasoning was a “bit of a stretch”, Mr Bali responded that it wasn’t.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/badgerys-creek-airport-a-death-sentence-for-residents-says-councillor-20140415-36oty.html#ixzz2ywBWP9Sm

  4. Here’s the Daily Telecrap’s take on the decision regarding Sydney’s second Airport:

    http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/west/prime-minister-tony-abbott-approves-an-airport-at-badgerys-creek-work-to-begin-in-2016/story-fngr8i5s-1226884369414

    Very supportive, as expected. Scroll down to see the photoshoppers’ efforts with Abbott and Hockey as pilot and co pilot.

    I wonder if it would have been so supportive had Julia Gillard made the decision during the last term of Parliament? Would Abbott have offered bipartisan support? He’d have opposed it and stirred up opposition in those Western Sydney electorates with the full support of the Murdochracy. We’ll stop the boars and stop the planes.

    Of course that is unknowable, but it would have been true to form, possibly followed by another backflip a couple of years down the track.

  6. Lynchpin @ 149

    Re GrangeGate, it is good to see Icac seeking Clarety.

    Max Schubert would roll in his grave if he heard that !

  7. [PREMIER Barry O’Farrell has denied receiving an undeclared $3000 bottle of Grange from Australian Water Holdings boss Nick Di Girolamo on oath at the ICAC despite a phone record and a courier receipt that suggests otherwise.
    Counsel Assisiting Geoffrey Watson has produced a courier receipt dated April 22, 2011, from the AWH head office at Bella Vista to Mr O’Farrells home at Roseville.
    Mr Watson said ICAC had heard evidence the bottle was ordered from Vintage Cellars on April 20 that year and phone records showed a call from Mr O’Farrell’s mobile to Mr Di Girolamo on the evening of April 20.]

    Note the date difference, the wine was purchased on the 20th and BoF called on the 20th. Maybe the Good Friday courier was something different? Its getting weirder.

    As noted News Ltd are going in hard.

  8. I know the SMH was reporting O’Farrell at ICAC, but its sister paper the Age made no mention of it. This is strange because the Age hasn’t been able to get enough of events in NSW until now. Wonder why?

  9. When are we going to have an ACCC inquiry into a second casino for Sydney?

    $3,000 for bottle of wine 😆 glass of water stuff!

  10. Didn’t abbott make a song and dance of multiple bottles of Grange being offered as gifts on his recent “jetabout” to China.

    Grange might well be a tory thing.

    Which reminds me, all Labor Leaders undertaking overseas trips are mostly said to have ‘jetted off’ etc….but that word never got a mention on abbott’s latest junket.

    Just saying….

  11. Apparently Abbott reckons the planes that will be flying to and from Badgerys Creek are going to be less noisier than those at Mascot 😆

  12. [Very supportive, as expected. Scroll down to see the photoshoppers’ efforts with Abbott and Hockey as pilot and co pilot.]

    Awful. Just awful. Are they a news outlet or a comedy festival audition?

  17. I just think all you PBers today are sooooo unappreciative of what BoF has done for NSW.

    Truly, half glass empty stuff.

  18. Badgerys Creek will be good for jobs in the area.

    But there is a trade off?

    Your property prices will – FALL 😆

    Oh yeah, great way to get ahead 😯

  21. ru

    Yes the dates don’t match up and BOF says his family was on the Gold Coast then anyway.

    And wouldn’t a phone call to thank someone for a $3000 bottle of Grange from your birth year last more than 28 seconds?

    I’m keeping an open mind on this one.

    Anyway, BOF is the best Labor premier in the country.

  24. Sheezus, politics in 2014 is rolled gold comedy!

    Oh, not to mention they can’t recall or recollect anything at inquiries 😛

  26. [Mark Kenny and Michael Gordon are not a couple of blow-ins. They are senior members of the federal parliamentary press gallery. It is equally undeniable that they have no idea what is going on with our political system. Business journalists who didn’t understand the stock market, sports journalists who don’t understand individual matches or the wider competitions in which they are played, have no future. Yet, Fairfax have kept these numpties for too long in a press gallery construct that doesn’t work for anyone. The reason why Karen Middleton can’t find anyone to celebrate or support the press gallery is because, even at its best, it is bullshit.]
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/good-news-for-confused.html

  29. Awful. Just awful. Are they a news outlet or a comedy festival audition?

    They are the propaganda arm of the Liberal Party in the Sydney area.

  30. [And wouldn’t a phone call to thank someone for a $3000 bottle of Grange from your birth year last more than 28 seconds?]

    Not if you reached his voice mail. Then the thank you would be very short and sweet. Eight seconds taken up by the
    “Please leave a message … ” and you’d have enough time to say thank you in the nicest way. Try it yourself – see what a sincere thank you can be spoken in twenty seconds.

  31. [“I’m no wine connoisseur. I don’t drink a lot these days, that’s evidenced by my size.”]

    I’d imagine if you were gifted a bottle of expensive vintage wine you wouldn’t be chugging it with your partner over an ordinary dinner that night, even if you weren’t a wine connoisseur, or were drinking regularly.

  32. Tom

    Yes, it would have to be a voicemail message. Which can be retrieved. Just ask the Americans for it.

    Bloody traitors!!

    [The Guardian and the Washington Post have been awarded the highest accolade in US journalism, winning the Pulitzer prize for public service for their groundbreaking articles on the National Security Agency’s surveillance activities based on the leaks of Edward Snowden.]

  35. [Thoughts are with Bill Shorten today. I lost my Mum in 2008. It was a very difficult time]

    Ditto!

    Don’t know how long it will take to get over my mother’s death. She died on January 9th this year and every time I close my eyes, she is all I can see. When I’m busy doing things, her voice comes to mind.

  41. Retweeted by Roy Morgan
    Warren Hogan ‏@anz_warrenhogan 8h

    ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence fell a further 1.1% last week to 112.7, after falling modestly in the two previous weeks ….

    Not looking good if we just above the 100 mark.

    Inflation back on the rise.

  46. [Yes the dates don’t match up and BOF says his family was on the Gold Coast then anyway.]

    A NSW Premier holidaying on the Gold Coast is cause for resignation

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