Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. So, Abbott has a good week according to the Commentariate but drops 4 points and the Greens go up 5 parts. Does this mean that the Commentariate’s perceptions are so different to that of the general public or that a movement in polls can’t be explained by a selection of events in the news media over the previous week.

    I think the political commentators are about as reliable in their predictions as economists and stock market commentators ie. not.

    PS Is anyone prepared to give Centre resuscitation when he sees the Neilsen poll?

  2. Funny how our msm have reported how wonderful Abbott has been during this trip to Asia this week. Add to that the uncritical reportage of Abbott’s brain farts re the missing Malaysian plane,
    Obviously none of this has impressed voter land.

  3. It’s time

    You have expressed the sentiments i was attempting to state, only better. Thanks

    Centre wont know what has hit him. Lol!

  4. Fran Kelly on Breakfast, wtte “We no longer comment on polls” seems like a convenient change of policy

  5. It’s time

    Feedback in my neck of the woods is concern with permanent employment opportunties and the possibliity of raising retirement age to 70 years. Nothing about Abbott’s Asian adventures

  6. FKelly asks Barnaby if he supports the PPL, when he’s rabbiting on about our imminent demise as a result of debt.

    Barnaby does not bother to answer, just continues to rabbit on about debt and productivity.

    FKelly moves on to the next question on her list.

    And so on a beautiful autumn Monday morning, our ever forensic meeja moves to the next week of same same.

  7. The do-nothings are wrong. Going ‘green’ will not destroy the world’s economies.

    [Diverting hundred of billions of dollars from fossil fuels into renewable energy and cutting energy waste would shave just 0.06% off expected annual economic growth rates of 1.3%-3%, the IPCC report concluded.

    “The report is clear: the more you wait, the more it will cost and the more difficult it will become,” said EU commissioner Connie Hedegaard. The US secretary of state, John Kerry, said: “This report is a wake-up call about global economic opportunity we can seize today as we lead on climate change.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/13/averting-climate-change-catastrophe-is-affordable-says-ipcc-report-un

  8. Good Morning

    We have had some major reports from the IPCC this week. It has become clearer to voters that Team Abbott are wreckers.

    The question is which major party are those votes coming from? Just Labor or is it Nationals? As pointed out by the MSM there has been a quiet revolution happening from farmers over CSG.

    Also maybe Neilsen just polled in WA 😉

  9. psyclaw

    Our meeja has shown itself to be frickin useless on so many levels. They breathlessly reported Abbott’s brain fart re the black box on Friday, as if he had found it. It was so embarrassing. It is now Monday and the latest report is that bad weather will further hamper the search for the black box.

  10. Qanda
    Marise Payne – Minister for Human Services
    Penny Wong – Opposition Leader in the Senate
    Michelle Garnaut – Chef and restaurateur
    Jacqui Lambie – PUP Senator-Elect for Tasmania
    Judith Sloan – Economist and businesswoman

  11. [ Ukraine Mobilizes Military, Gives Separatists Ultimatum; Russia Slams Escalation As “Criminal”, Yanukovich Warns Of Civil War

    If Russia’s intention was to give Ukraine enough “escalation” rope with which to hang itself once again, it may have succeeded when a little over an hour ago acting president Oleksander Turchinov said in a televized address that Ukraine has mobilized its armed forces to launch a “full-scale anti-terrorist operation” against pro-Russian separatists.

    Furthermore, knowing the only real escalation Kiev can engage in is in the war of words department, Ukraine set an 0600 GMT Monday deadline for pro-Russian separatists to give up their weapons and leave buildings they have occupied in the east of the country, a presidential decree said.

    …Looking ahead in terms of immediate catalysts, 0600 GMT is in a few hours hours, and certainly well before the US market opens. What happens then, certainly nothing if Russian response to previous Ukraine ultimatums is any indication, may determine of last week’s sell off continues in earnest on Monday or if, by some surprising development, there is a relief rally.

    Finally, this just in: Security Council will meet at 8 PM NY Time for emergency meeting on Ukraine crisis – Russia’s news agency citing UN source.

    Or just in time for the Nikkei open.]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-13/ukraine-mobilizes-military-gives-ultimatum-russia-slams-escalation-criminal-yanukovi

  12. Morning all.

    [Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s call to reform the Labor Party to lessen union influence has received support from a surprising quarter – the militant State secretary of the Maritime Union of Australia.

    The push for change comes amid calls from another WA Federal Labor MP for Joe Bullock to stand down from the party’s number one Senate spot in WA.

    MUA State secretary Christy Cain said a debate about Labor’s policies had been “put on hold” and the party needed to develop platforms that appealed to working West Australians.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22617388/mua-backs-cuts-to-union-sway-in-alp/

    I guess the “platforms that appealed to working West Australians” is code for ditching carbon pricing and resource rent taxes.

    *Sigh*

  13. Some are doing it tough –

    [31-Year-Old Hedge Fund Trader Made More Than The CEOs Of The Six Biggest Banks Combined

    Over the weekend, there has been some consternation over the report that the CEOs of the 6 largest US banks: JPM, BAC, GS, MS, C and WFC, collectively made $96.1 million in 2013, more than $86.3 million the year before and the most since the financial crisis.

    …However, we are confident those same people would have an aneurism if they were to learn that James “Jimmy” Levin, a 31-year-old hedge fund trader – head of global credit and an executive managing director at Och-Ziff – last year made a whopping $119 million, or more than all of the CEOs of the six largest firms combined. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-13/31-year-old-hedge-fund-trader-made-more-ceos-six-biggest-banks-combined

  14. I still think the commentary is right and this has been Abbott’s best week. Its been his crowning week accomplishing the sealing of deals. He didn’t stuff up the foundation work done by others.

    Thinking about it commentators may not have intended it, but that is damning with faint praise.

    My award for politician who won the week goes to Bob Carr. Clive Palmer would have been jealous of his vaudeville act

  15. [
    So, Abbott has a good week according to the Commentariate but drops 4 points and the Greens go up 5 parts. Does this mean that the Commentariate’s perceptions are so different to that of the general public or that a movement in polls can’t be explained by a selection of events in the news media over the previous week.
    ]

    The later is the case in my opinion. Trying to link a single opinion poll to a particular weeks events isn’t a great idea in my opinion. It always amuses me when I hear that one side has “had a good week”, or “won the week” and therefore the polls should should reflect that. Thinking that way equates politics to a football match.

    As William states above

    [
    By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.
    ]

    There are so many factors that affect how someone will answer a question from an opinion poll organisation that trying to equate the results to particular events over the previous week is very fraught.

  16. The greens polling so well may be another sign that labor has to reduce union influence. I think there are a lot of libs out there with progressive views who just won’t park their vote with labor because of the perceived “union” influence. Indeed, I think there are a lot of voters out there who basically believe in labor policies, but just don’t like the Labour influence in the party.

  17. Last week was definitely a good week for the govt. It was largely shown as focused on substantive matters rather than ideological obsessions it’s displayed since being sworn in.

  18. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 1h
    That Nielsen contains a ceerazy 27% WA Grns component, some kind of hangover from Senate poll.]

  19. The Coalition LIED to the voters before the election about education, the NDIS and now pensions. They most likely also lied about about the commitment to reducing carbon emissions although the Coalition’s constituency by and large don’t care about that.

    No surprises, no excuses. Abbott should be held to account but will probably get away with it.

  20. Guytaur

    Yes, Abbott has scored numerous pics and grabs all over the meeja last week, in a variety of costumes (traditional, business suit, safety vest, lycra) talking about VIP matters (such as his search for the black box, his sublime friendship with China, rolling over to secure the SKorean agreement).

    To the uncritical eye he is undoubtedly a statesman.

    So to the meeja he is undoubtedly a statesman.

    But to me, he is a jerkhead.

    And I think to the Asians in the 3 countries he visited, he is an easy take, and they are very pleased that it is him and the dynamic Robb negotiating on our part.

  21. Steve777@177

    The Coalition LIED to the voters before the election about education, the NDIS and now pensions. They most likely also lied about about the commitment to reducing carbon emissions although the Coalition’s constituency by and large don’t care about that.

    No surprises, no excuses. Abbott should be held to account but will probably get away with it.

    Jason Clare was on ABC TV News in Sydney last night running the line “Abbott lied….and cannot be trusted on anything” and did it very well.

    Keep it going Labor and throw it at the mongrel day in day out.

  22. zoidlord

    Here in Vic the job market is not the best at present. If things dont pick up in the second part of fhe year, i suspect our state govt will change hands

  23. Sir Mad Cyril

    I doubt the voting public are all that interested in what Abbott is doing overseas. It has no direct impact on their lives. I remember how well JG did in her trip to China. Did not help her one bit back at home

  24. ABC Breakfast on 24 is quoting the Nielsen poll. They have also put the Council of the Ageing Ian Yates on high repeat attacking Abbott.

    Mr Yates is saying WTTE that Abbott lied before the election.

  25. [A mixed bag of Palm Sunday church-goers joined hundreds of families, union members, activists and community groups for the Walk for Justice for Refugees rally, which kicked off at 2pm outside the State Library for a march stretching past Federation Square.

    The march has been organised by Refugee Advocacy Network and is supported by more than 40 groups, including the Greens, several churches and academics.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/churchgoers-activists-come-together-for-walk-for-justice-for-refugees-rally-20140413-36l07.html#ixzz2yo97sjgw

    Several refugees addressed the diverse crowd in attendance – moving accounts of hardship, persecution and life-threatening situations told by courageous and inspirational individuals.

    Human stories communicated face to face by human beings- In sight, up front, unable to be dehumanised and demonised.

    Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young received great applause, before, during and after her rousing address.

    As we walked down Swanston Street the number swelled to several thousand. The diversity of people, including many young people, taking part was heartening and a source of hope.

  26. [
    I doubt the voting public are all that interested in what Abbott is doing overseas. It has no direct impact on their lives. I remember how well JG did in her trip to China. Did not help her one bit back at home
    ]

    vic

    I agree. These days I barely watch any TV news and don’t listen to the radio. Apart from seeing some images of Abbott at the Korean border, I have no idea what the hell happened on that trip. I doubt I’m the only one!

  27. Confessions

    ” It was largely shown as focused on substantive matters rather than ideological obsessions”

    What “substantive” matters. What was the nsture of its “focus” ….. actually doing something? What actual successes?

    Tony searching for the black box?

    Tony rolling over in SKorea in a manner so widely disliked by the farmers he was “representing”, just so he could be the signer of the agreement?

    Tony declaring his sublime true friendship with China?

    Joe flying his balloon about pensioners as the savings target?

    Have you joined the crew I mentioned in my last post ….. “To the uncritical eye he is undoubtedly a statesman.”

  28. Sir Mad Cyril

    As i said earlier, no one I spoke to was interested in Abbott’s Asian adventure. It has been jobs, and the retirement age being lifted to 70, that has been the talk around my neck of the woods

  29. Dave quoted

    […However, we are confident those same people would have an aneurism if they were to learn that James “Jimmy” Levin, a 31-year-old hedge fund trader – head of global credit and an executive managing director at Och-Ziff – last year made a whopping $119 million, or more than all of the CEOs of the six largest firms combined.]

    Impressive, doubtless, but compared to Kenneth Adelman, who added more than $11bn to his wealth last year — 2 orders of magnitude larger in the inequity stakes — Levin is a small nibbling parasite rather than a shark.

  30. psyclaw:

    Being shown signing free trade agreements is way more substantive than petty squabbling over the right to be a bigot.

  31. On Saturday Thomas Piketty was interviewed by Geraldine Doogue on ABC RN Saturday Extra:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/capital-in-the-21st-century/5362266
    [French economist Thomas Piketty has spent fifteen years collecting and analysing incomes reported on tax returns over the last 100 years to predict that the world is heading towards inequality rates not seen since the 19th century, unless there is global action to narrow the divide.

    His book, Capital in the twenty first century, has been described by the former World Bank senior economist as “one of the watershed books in economic thinking” and The Economist magazine wrote it could change the way people think about the past two centuries of economic history.]

  32. Fans of Fran Kelly may be happy/unhappy to have heard she is moving from her RN breakfast gig to take over from Barrie Cassidy on ‘Insiders’, “while he writes a book”.

    Can’t make up my mind if this is the ABC going forward or backward in its deployment of CA staff.

    Forget who she said was taking her place at RN – but it is one of the better known names in the ABC circuit.

  33. “@political_alert: Greens Leader Christine Milne will hold a press conference at 10.30am in Hobart on pension cuts and alternative budget fixes #auspol”

  34. Oh, and I almost forgot….one news outlet on line describes the 52-48 to Labor as “a dip in the government’s polls”.

    None of the shock/horror stuff about “terrible declines” and “worse polls since whenever” for the conservative media it seems.

    Of course, nothing mentioned about “falling leadership support” but then who is surprised?

    This has been a “good week” for the PM. The media hacks have pronounced it thus.

  35. Re: Nielsen poll and Greens vote….iirc female vote is usually several points higher than male vote, as is capital vote versus non-capital. This latest poll has only a single point difference for both with male vote higher than female vote.

    Will be interesting to see if this relatively even distribution in voting pattern holds up.

  36. “Forget who she said was taking her place at RN – but it is one of the better known names in the ABC circuit.” – that would be Peter Reith, then.

    BTW, saw mention of Shortens popularity in the latest poll, but can see no mention of Abbott.

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