Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 21
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  3. “Capitalism isn’t working,”
    ,a statewment from Tom Pickety a new and much talked about UK economist
    He sees a fatal flaw in the way that vast wealth is accumulating in the hands of that 1% much talked about in the USA
    This in turn makes the operation of capitalism doubtful…and threatens the basis of social peace itself
    He says there must be new taxes to correct this…wealth taxes,and a world wide tax on the rich and certain tax havens..or capitalism itself will be threatened
    Great stuff

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/12/capitalism-isnt-working-thomas-piketty

    Strong stuff and much debated overseas

  5. Given the remarkable surge in the Green vote…can some PBer get help to “Centre” who has been writing his “Greens RIP” mantra here for yonks

    It’s just nor working Cantre…get help mate !!
    erhaps medication

  7. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Nielsen Poll Shorten: Approve 43 (+1) Disapprove 41 (-1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 44s

    #Nielsen Poll Reintroducing Knights & Dames: Support 35 Oppose 50 #auspol

  11. This (the huge Green result) shall be forever known as the Bullock Bounce. I wonder if any other polls will show it. 🙂

  12. @ KB 106

    That’s the point at which Labor seats (in WA) are going to start dropping to the Greens, if it’s legit.

  13. [95…Bugler]

    I don’t want to get too soppy about this, but I think the overwhelming majority of Australians are proud of our diversity and of our ability to maintain harmonious inter-cultural and inter-ethnic relations. Along with this, there is a sense in which public displays of racial animosity or effrontery are experienced as forms of violence and are felt as a source of shared shame and indignation. The episode involving Adam Goodes illustrated that.

    Overtly racist expressions are now subject to a taboo of a kind, and I think we’re generally very happy that the law matches our cultural norms, not least because it affirms our understandings of personal equality and socially-given identity.

    Those elements in the LNP that want to repeal s18.c really don’t get this. They are expecting Australians to react with indifference to public shows of hatred. This is quite contrary to the norms we have adopted.

  18. @ rossmcg 116

    I confess, I don’t really follow AFL, but I guess the Dockers are a favourite to do well this season?

  19. [111
    Kevin Bonham

    This (the huge Green result) shall be forever known as the Bullock Bounce. I wonder if any other polls will show it. :)]

    I’m sure the Bullock factor has some influence. But the ease with which the Green vote rose in WA also shows they have the ability to take votes away from the LNP. If voters who are disaffected with the LNP shift not to Labor but to the Greens, then the face of politics will change quite noticeably. We will, no doubt, soon see.

  20. Arrnea

    That’s OK, Freo had a hiccup last week but dismantled essendon today and travel to Sydney next weekend to play the decidedly shakey Swans.
    A win there will rick another box.

  21. zoidlord@115

    @KB/111

    Would it show if the same/similar questions were asked in the poll?

    Well it’s always possible that it’s really nowhere near that large and that for other polls it will be just lost in poll to poll bouncing.

    Don’t expect too much of it in Essential because of the way Essential rolls figures across two weeks.

    Most of it probably won’t last very long – much as Labor has brought it upon itself if it does.

  22. The WA sample in that poll would be about 150, so the margin of error would be around 8%. The ‘Bullock bounce’ would seem to be real. Of course Murdoch media bringing up that assault conviction in 1996 and publicising those remarks by Bullock last November certainly gave it a boost.

    So Labor need to be more careful with their candidates. They need to come up with good ones and they have to be aware that if a candidate had so much as farted in Sunday School when they were 7 it will be in the front page if the Daily Rupert 3 days before the election.

  24. I love how people bring up the argument of “oh, the margin of error is there, you know?” whenever there’s a result they don’t like in a poll.

    It’s (statistically speaking) equally as likely that the Greens’ support in WA is 35% as it is to be 19%.

  25. the high Green polling in WA is just respect for conviction. Even the PUP vote is that. We’ve had decades of the old parties using PR Spin, personality cult and fearmongering; all of which work for an election. As time passess:: people go for genuine even if its not exactly what they want, they trust it more. At least Palmer put his money where his mouth is, Ludlam didn’t play dodgy games to get preselection. and so on…. Also that scary carbon emissions trading thing hasn”t sent us bartering in a starvation economy!

  28. Germany polled around 26% Green after Fukushima. baden-wurtemberg consistently polls about 26% Green while they are in government as senior partner. I’m not sure that poll will hold in WA but its not impossible. The Greens have been well embedded here for a long time.

  29. Arrnea Stormbringer@124

    I love how people bring up the argument of “oh, the margin of error is there, you know?” whenever there’s a result they don’t like in a poll.

    It’s (statistically speaking) equally as likely that the Greens’ support in WA is 35% as it is to be 19%.

    In general I’d suggest being careful about this sort of reasoning. It works if you have no data other than one single poll. However normally if you have an existing trend, and a poll well off it, it’s statistically much more likely that the real result is closer to the trend than that it is still further away.

    In this case there’s a heightened possibility that the previous trend is not relevant anymore, but it’s still only a possibility. I’d say even that it’s more likely that the Greens’ support in WA is still around 15 (and that the WA sample is rogue) than that the Greens’ support in WA is 35.

    Something else about MOEs. The MOE applies to a single measurement when taken in isolation. But a poll like Nielsen takes a whole heap of different measurements. It is to be expected that some of the individual measurements in any given Nielsen will be “rogue”, and the most extraordinary ones are the most obvious candidates.

    But to those who’d be sure the whole thing is rogue, I’d say let’s see someone else’s poll first, because electoral events can cause sharp shifts.

    Unfortunately Nielsen has issued four polls since the federal election and this is the third one that there is this “is this a rogue?” discussion about.

  30. In slight contradiction to the above, 15 isn’t really the base Green vote shown by the Senate election. It’s more like 18 when you throw in all the left micros that basically compete with the Greens at Senate level.

  32. [130
    Kevin Bonham

    In slight contradiction to the above, 15 isn’t really the base Green vote shown by the Senate election. It’s more like 18 when you throw in all the left micros that basically compete with the Greens at Senate level.]

    Apparent support for the Greens in WA would also be registering the absence of all the micro parties. Those who supported the micros in the election could quite easily transfer their support to the Greens in an opinion survey. The Nielsen results for the LNP and Labor are very close to the actual results from the election so there’s no reason to think the indicated support for the Greens in this poll is far out of line. The question is how durable it may be.

  34. It’s just so obvious that however it came about the placing of Bullock at the top of the WA Senate ticket was a blunder of almost unbelievable proportion for the ALP. As per the usual the warnings were there before the deed was done and as per the usual they were ignored and again, as per the usual who wins as a result? The reactionaries, who are rightly celebrating this egregious own goal. Who can seriously begrudge them that?

    The ALP’s shocking performance at the election was richly deserved. Obviously the poorly paid workers of WA aren’t exactly lining up to give Bullock the thanks and praise he so obviously believes is due. And good on them.

  36. Steve777

    “So Labor need to be more careful with their candidates. They need to come up with good ones and they have to be aware that if a candidate had so much as farted in Sunday School when they were 7 it will be in the front page if the Daily Rupert 3 days before the election.”

    Let’s not blame Rupert for the stunning stupidity of the preselection of Labor Senate candidates. It’s completely fucked and the ALP’s enemies are entirely within their rights to highlight this at whatever time they wish.

  38. [
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    @ KB 106

    That’s the point at which Labor seats (in WA) are going to start dropping to the Greens, if it’s legit.
    ]

    I do wonder about that; Green voters tend to preference Labor but the Labor voters left behind are probable going to preference the Liberals.

  39. Apparently, at dawn today there were hundreds of vehicles and about three tgousand people gathered on Bentley Road, wets of Lismore, preparing to block MetGas from proceeding with their fracking project. Opposition towards CSG up there seems to be hardening.

  40. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Just waiting for the light to improve to see if the seas will allow us to get out. So there’s time for an abbreviated contribution.

    I wonder how Shannahan would write this up if the results were repeated by NewsPoll.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-slumps-in-polls-despite-best-week-yet-20140413-zqu9c.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/greens-benefit-from-main-parties-unpopularity-20140413-36lk3.html
    This RC is going to one hell of a ride!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/royal-commission-must-shine-light-on-sydneys-shady-political-past-20140413-zqu9i.html
    Well fork me!
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/forking-scam-hits-atms-20140413-36lny.html
    A nice type!
    David Rowe on fire with a few of our favorites.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    A clever one from David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    A late serve for Arfur from Pat Campbell.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html

  41. [Labor’s dominance on the two-party-preferred basis is being driven by the Greens’ support and by a noticeable shift in voting intention between the cities and the non-capital city votes.

    “The fall in the Coalition vote occurred mainly in regional areas,” Fairfax Nielsen pollster John Stirton said.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-slumps-in-polls-despite-best-week-yet-20140413-zqu9c.html#ixzz2ynsM5GXN

  42. [Balmain voters have their say in Labor’s community preselection
    Damien Murphy April 13, 2014
    NSW Labor has moved to allow all Balmain voters – party members or not – to have a say in the preselection of the Labor candidate in next year’s state election.
    It is part of a continuing campaign to distance the ALP from the preselection rorts and branch stacks that opened the party to corruption and saw it voted out of office in 2011.
    Although NSW Labor has been testing the water with “community preselection” ballots elsewhere, the Balmain announcement was especially significant.
    Many believe a meeting in what is now the Unity Hall Hotel in Darling Street on April Fool’s Day 1891, which saw the formation of the Labour Electoral Leagues of New South Wales, was a forerunner of the ALP.
    On Monday, every enrolled voter in Balmain will be able to take part in a poll to choose who will represent the ALP in the state election.
    Two candidates, former Minister for Education and Member for Balmain Verity Firth, and Mayor of Leichhardt, Darcy Byrne, have nominated.]

    http://m.smh.com.au/nsw/balmain-voters-have-their-say-in-labors-community-preselection-20140413-36lb8.html

  45. Further to Deblonay 105, Piketty’s book Capital in the 21st Century has been getting a lot of attention not because he says unfettered capitalism leads to greater inequality and finally collapse. It is significant because Piketty (who is French) has a fair bit of evidence to prove it, going back as far as we have reliable records.

    You can tell the importance of a new book/idea by the speed with which the author is attacked by establishment drones. In Piketty’s case, it is before the book has even hit Aussie shelves:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/briandomitrovic/2014/04/07/thomas-piketty-is-a-darwinian-shill/

  46. mari
    The fishing trip has just taken a turn for the worse. Our daughter-in-law had to go into Yorketown Hospital overnight after continuous vomiting and it looks like they may all have to go home. There atill is no 3 son and the tinny so we’ll have to chase the offshore winds now.

  47. In overseas news Moscow continues to warn of civil war in Ukraine, but it seems they are getting the term mixed up with “invasion”. NATO continues to talk tough, and do very little.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/13/moscow-accuses-kiev-criminal-orders-civil-war-east-ukraine-crimea

    Have a good day all. The Piketty book is sold out in every one of the online book shops I read. It is worth finding a copy. I will not hold my breath waiting for Joe Hockey to initiate the sort of tax reform he proposes.

  49. We know you’ll hate us, but we don’t care.

    [Overall, the has been a 5.5 point swing against the government since the September 7, 2013 federal election.

    Those who are aware of the severity of some of the budget decisions that have been made, are warning the situation will most likely worsen before it starts to improve. The Coalition is ­bracing to be “deeply unpopular by December”, said one source.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/abbott_on_the_nose_in_regions_CsYqkyHwx2hO6PPGOaY0eP

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