Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/11/climate-targets-australia-cant-be-caught-napping-while-others-take-action?CMP=ema_792
    [The government is yet to outline what preparations Australia is making for its post-2020 target, or whether we will join other major emitters in advancing our initial target offer by April 2015 (as we have agreed to do in Warsaw last year).

    The ALP has been no less committal, and continues a slip and slide on emission targets that started in 2009. Its policy to reduce emissions through an internationally linked carbon limit and price can achieve emission targets at low cost. However, the ALP keeps deferring a decision on its exact targets, despite initiating a number of independent expert reviews on what they should be. Those experts have recommended at least a 15% reduction in emissions by 2020.

    It’s clear that neither the government nor the ALP want us to discuss what contribution Australia is going to make to the Paris agreement and what emission goals we should set post 2020. Other governments are asking politely now, but as the 2015 climate summit gets closer, these questions will get more pointed. This weekend’s report from the IPCC will just be the start.]

  2. guytaur:

    [http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/everyone-can-have-a-say-in-choosing-nsw-labors-balmain-candidate-20140413-36lez.html]

    I was there at Verity Firth’s campaign launch yesterday. There was standing room only. (Then again, it was in a primary school hall, and not many seats. But I adored the “blue horse” decore from Class 2B.) Definitely a positive vibe, although tempered by the realisation that Labor will not win the next state election in NSW.

  3. Confessions

    “Being shown signing free trade agreements is way more substantive than petty squabbling over the right to be a bigot”

    To the uncritical, and there are many of them, even here, I agree.

    But as for your reference to Brandis and bigotry as “a petty squabble”, I could not disagree more.

    And I suspect even the mass of uncritical voters also came to the the view that it was not a petty squabble.

    The proof of this was the Cabinet’s rolling of Brandis after a week of widespread public outrage, and the likelihood that Branids’s amendments are now cactus.

    Petty squabble!!!!!

  4. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 2m

    I have now updated my story re the film lobby’s emails to the AG’s Dept re piracy with a link to the emails. http://zd.net/1gROewv

    http://www.zdnet.com/film-lobby-emails-detail-persistence-for-copyright-crackdown-7000028324/

    “He said the site applauds the UK police for being proactive, and said the report is “fully supporting of blocking websites”.”

    “Brandis has suggested that Australia may look to block websites with copyright-infringing material.”

    = ISP Filtering.

    Again, the “We are following UK” line.

  5. [ Federal Labor says it will hold the Abbott government to its election promise to make no changes to the age pension.

    As the coalition prepares to deliver its May budget, Treasurer Joe Hockey has signalled the pension age could be lifted to 70 in the search for savings.

    Labor is using his comments as ammunition to accuse Prime Minister Tony Abbott of breaking his election vows to steer clear of changing the age pension and trimming the budgets of the ABC and multicultural broadcaster SBS.

    Opposition families spokeswoman Jenny Macklin says the Coalition is preparing to break its promise to the public, in particular more than two million age pensioners.

    “We intend to hold him to that promise,” she told ABC Radio.

    She said making people work for longer will hurt the most vulnerable in society, and while many older Australians wanted to work for longer, they faced age discrimination in the workforce.

    Ms Macklin also said the government should scrap its paid parental leave scheme. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/4/14/politics/hockey-tips-retirement-age-70

  6. [I doubt the voting public are all that interested in what Abbott is doing overseas. It has no direct impact on their lives. I remember how well JG did in her trip to China. Did not help her one bit back at home.]

    Rather simplifying the coverage of JG’s China success, vic.

    Most of the msm reportage was wall-to-wall anti-JG where she supposedly calling Abbott an “economic simpleton” regarding his remarks comparing the changes to superannuation (including a 15 per cent tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000) as having “shades of Cyprus about it.”

    They couldn’t wait to inject domestic politics into JG’s successful China tour.

    A year later we hear about the actual success from Mark Kenny:
    [Gillard’s deft handling of the Chinese culminating in her successful visit just over a year ago, is a case in point.

    One China insider this week described the Gillard achievement of securing “strategic partnership” status with Beijing in early 2013 as “really remarkable”.]

    And besides being rather too late, was only referred to, really, to jack up Abbott. What a stoopid headline on the article – Tony Abbott in China shows skills beyond his years – when he in fact did nothing other than make a fool of himself about the missing plane (conveniently ignored by the mass hysteria media.

    And there’s a glaring error in the head for Kenny’s dissection of Neilsen. It should read Tony Abbott slumps in polls despite best week of fawning press coverage yet

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-slumps-in-polls-despite-best-week-yet-20140413-zqu9c.html#ixzz2yoQfvtCa

    BTW, heard the tail-end of Marius Benson interviewing Malcolm Farr. Farr reckoned Abbott was shocked and wounded at the mocking he received of the Dames and Knights fiasco. He he he.

  7. [And I suspect even the mass of uncritical voters also came to the the view that it was not a petty squabble.]

    1. People don’t elect govts to indulge in ideological obsessions like the govt has been doing on the RDA and knights and dames. I rather suspect most people would’ve viewed the endless commentary from the govt about those matters as petty and evidence of how out of touch they are with what really matters to people.

    2. That “mass of uncritical voters” (if there is even a “mass” of them) don’t decide elections.

  8. [victoria
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:22 am | PERMALINK
    Qanda
    Marise Payne – Minister for Human Services
    Penny Wong – Opposition Leader in the Senate
    Michelle Garnaut – Chef and restaurateur
    Jacqui Lambie – PUP Senator-Elect for Tasmania
    Judith Sloan – Economist and businesswoman]

    Girls night out?

    Segues neatly into “This is a bit awkward. Tony Abbott searches for the ladies at his business delegation to Asia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9tdoZJBuf4 … #auspol”.

    “Where are the ladeez. We’ve got some laydee delegates. We’ve got some here somewhere” What a total dropkick. I can’t bear having this fool for our PM. *shiver*

  9. Perhaps he public are not vey interested in Tone Great big Asian Adventure because it was almost indistinguishable from his four year stuntathon.

  10. kezza2

    Stood out like the proverbials that after showing off how on first name terms he was with the blokes he didn’t know any blokettes names to ask for. They were mere Laydeez or female delegates.

  11. “@CliveFPalmer: Like the captain of the #titanic, @theqldpremier is steaming the @LNPQLD ship towards the iceberg of electoral disaster #polqld #auspol”

  12. “@Kate_McClymont: Whoa! FIrst question bowled up to Nick Di Girolamo at #icac was did he intend to “milk every cent” he could out of AustralianWater Holdings.”

  13. kezza

    By calling for the ladies, Tone was demonstrating his awareness that business leaders might be female. Mr Sensitive on show. 😉 No one stepped forward – I thought it made him look silly.

  14. More things for abbott to accommodate in order to get so called FTA’s ratified ?

    [ Palmer urges tough investment stance

    Palmer United Party leader Clive Palmer has urged the federal government to bolster regulations for foreign-owned companies looking to invest in Australia, The Australian Financial Review reports.

    According to the newspaper, Mr Palmer said the Foreign Investment Review Board needs to ensure companies follow through on promises made during the approval process, as the Abbott government eyes a softened stance on foreign investment.

    “There’s no point in having an FIRB if their conditions can be flouted,” Mr Palmer said, according to the AFR.

    “The FIRB does a good job, where it seeks an undertaking from people when it gives conditions on investment. But the simple fact of life [is] if people don’t meet those undertakings or follow those conditions then no action is taken against them.”]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/4/14/politics/palmer-urges-tough-firb-stance

  15. “@bengrubb: Australia’s ‘first bitcoin ATM’ you can withdraw cash from will be launched tomorrow and be based in Westfield Sydney’s food court, it seems”

  16. lizzie

    [By calling for the ladies, Tone was demonstrating his awareness that business leaders might be female.]

    I doubt it, he probably thought they were stenographers. *tongue hanging out side of mouth*

    poroti

    Exactly. Showing off his intimacy with the blokes (ew!) but when push comes to shove in the the photo-op he’s directing can’t remember a single name of a single laydee.

    [“Josh, Sam, there are some lady members of the delegation. Can you please go and get them. They were here. They’ve been frightened off by the media (silly wimmin PLUS dud joke, oops) that’s . . . Lost all our female members of the delegation for some reason.”]

    Jerk central.

  17. dave
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:35 am | PERMALINK
    Christian Paterson@154
    Fran Kelly on Breakfast, wtte “We no longer comment on polls” seems like a convenient change of policy
    Yes….unless its Labor taking a flogging.

    I stopped listening to F Kelly many years ago.

    Dave I did the same 3 years ago because of Fran K and (Michelle G) bias after 20+ years of devoted listening. I put this on twitter and have been inundated by people saying the same thing.

    Tricot
    BTW some one on twitter told me it was Ellen Fanning taking Fran’s place

  18. Fanning would be OK. Haven’t listened to Kelly for 8 years. I enjoyed RN years ago, but never have it on now. Only have any ABC on to listen to AFL now.

  19. kezza

    I hope you realised I was being sarcastic.

    Anyway, I didn’t hear the further gaffe about being “frightened off by the media”. His male bias shows through all the time, doesn’t it.

    And a decent bit of organisation by Frydenberg (who seems to be the errand boy) would have made sure of a good representation.

  20. mari

    Not on twitter but I had similar experience. I’d have RN on the morning alarm and listen to it on the way to work. . That was until the 2010 election.

    The final straw was after an interview with some labor person, lots of interruptions and challenges , after which she interviewed am LNP candidate. After the meet and greet she asked “So what made you stand for election?” the “log cabin” just so story listened to in polite silence. That was it ofr me.

  21. “@strom_m: BREAKING: @BarryOFarrell will give evidence tomorrow at the #ICAC hearing into Australian Water Holdings.”

  22. lizzie

    Yes, of course I realised you were being sarcastic.

    Jamie Packer looked a bit nonplussed too at Abbott’s stricken entreaty for some skirt. I don’t think Abbott could bear to say his name, a bit too girly 😆

  23. I’m suspecting the Greens will now start going ludicrously gaga about their good polling and in the process scare their support level back to where it was before those results.

  24. KEZZA 207

    I loved what should have been Mark Kenny’s headline and pinched it for twitter going well. Many thanks hope you don’t mind

  25. For ages: 18 to 39 polling is:

    Greens: 23-26%
    ALP: 34-35%
    LNP: 32-33% (LNP get 49% of the 55+ vote)

    What will the LNP do when the baby-boomers start dying? They probably have a good couple of decades left until there is quite a major demographic shift away from their base.

  26. POROTI 229

    Which is what I did although my alarm was set at 5.45am(just right time) listened as I got ready for work(timed my shower to finish 5.58am) continued after I retired but stayed in bed longer, but late 2010 finished me. Turned the radio off and sleepin a bit later , never turned it on again

  27. Thanks Mari – Ellen Fanning is it? I knew is was a well-worked ABC name.

    Goodness only knows what will become of Insiders now.

  28. I’m afraid Fran K, gave it away at the time PMJG was negotiating with the Indies.

    She all but blurted out that ‘we’ (meaning the LNP) would get their vote and was almost caressing the name Abbott.

    Not talking abut opinion polls now is all a bit post the event I would have thought.

    One way or the other it does not matter as RN breakfast has a nation-wide audience you could fit into some country-sized town hall.

  29. Fran Kelly’s appearances on Insiders haven’t been bad. If it’s true that she’s taking over from Cassidy, then I’m prepared to hold judgement until I see how she goes as host.

    Cassidy is quite stale. A change should be good.

  30. Mortlock@236

    For ages: 18 to 39 polling is:

    Greens: 23-26%
    ALP: 34-35%
    LNP: 32-33% (LNP get 49% of the 55+ vote)

    What will the LNP do when the baby-boomers start dying? They probably have a good couple of decades left until there is quite a major demographic shift away from their base.

    It’s worth remembering that around the 2007 result there was a theory that the Coalition were headed for “demographic extinction” because their base was ageing and they were not appealling to young voters.

    Didn’t stop the Coalition winning easily in 2013.

    Voters get more conservative as they get older. Not all do, but on average. This has so far applied to all generations. In a few decades time when the baby boomers are rapidly dying off the Gen Xers in their sixties and seventies will have become more conservative and be mainly voting Liberal. There was a time when the boomers themselves were the young radical leftie voters.

  31. “@political_alert: Acting Shadow Treasurer Tony Burke will hold a press conference in Sydney at 12.30pm to discuss the government’s budget priorities #auspol”

  32. Insiders

    chris uhlmann .. laura tingle..
    Last week” Abbott had his best week ever”

    Nielsen … last week “Abbott had his worst week ever”

    About time journos got outside their own thought bubble & did some work for a living

  33. Kezza2 244

    It has gone well take a bow.

    BTW I have a new printer supposed to be WiFi but have had to connect it up via cable to work properly

  34. @Briefly

    I don’t comment very much, but I read pretty well everything. I’m so sorry about your situation and I hope things improve for you. In any case, please accept my best wishes.

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