Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. One Sydney Harbour is roughly a couple of hundred thousand Olympic Pools. I don’t know how many MCGs that is – anyway an ‘MCG’ is a measure of numbers of people, not volume.

  2. I don’t understand the LNP. Airport debate will not help them sell the budget. It will give the pensioners a lot of time to build up steam about their loss of income.

  3. [Marise Payne should be in Cabinet]

    Yeah, she should. But in your party, MPs like Payne get shafted, not promoted.

    It’s serendipitous that she was paired with Wong tonight. Wong being an obvious standout mirror opposite to the Marise Paynes of the world.

  4. Zoidy

    Volunteers besides not being paid are in many cases under the same workplace rules.

    Volunteering isn’t about being a slave.

    Uni students that have either work experience or volunteering on their resume will come out of uni in much better shape than a uni student that has spent their time studying and visiting the student lounge.

  5. “@owrangle: “The more needy you are, the more deserving you are, the more likely the axe is to fall on you.” – BOOM @Tony_Burke #lateline”

  6. And Gillard got to legislate her party’s agenda in govt, meanwhile Payne is sucking up to a numpty like that PUP person so she can keep her minor ministerial portfolio, whatever TF it is.

  7. […and Gillard is history and Payne is a Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia….]
    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLL Yeah right, Marise Payne is going to be Prime Minister one day.

    Keep waiting mate.

    You make sense, allegedly.

  8. ShowsOn

    Well she needs to work until she is 70 so maybe the week before her 70th they will give her the leadership for the week.

  9. imacca@789

    Lambie knows perfectly well that the first rule of the private


    Belive it or not, i read somewhere that she was an officer.

    I am pretty sure she was a senior NCO.

  10. http://www.marisepayne.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1021&Itemid=38

    [In 1997 Marise filled a casual vacancy to represent the people of New South Wales in the Australian Senate, making her inaugural speech on 2 September 1997. She was then elected in 2001, 2007 and 2013.

    Marise has served as Shadow Minister for Indigenous Development and Employment, Shadow Minister for COAG and Shadow Minister for Housing. She plays an active role in the Senate and has been a member of both Joint and Senate committees, including as Chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade and as Chair of its Human Rights subcommittee.

    In 2013 Marise was appointed as Minister for Human Services in the Abbott Government.]

  11. It is entirely possible that Lambie could have been an officer given that the guy in charge of Tony’s bathtub fleet is a general.

  12. As a measure of volume an ‘MCG’ is very roughly a million cubic metres (measuring the volume to the top of the stands). That’s very roughly 1,000 Olympic Pools or one 250th of a ‘Sydney Harbour’.

  13. Payne is the Minister whose portfolio is about to be completely shredded.

    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/

    How can we help you?

    We deliver social and health-related payments and services
    Centrelink Medicare Child Support
    Families
    Separated parents
    Job seekers
    Older Australians
    Your health
    People with disability
    Students & trainees
    Migrants, refugees & visitors
    Carers
    Rural & remote Australians
    Indigenous Australians
    Help in an emergency

  14. [Marise Payne can’t be in Cabinet. She hasn’t embraced the hard right or dogwhistling.]
    And she is a woman.

    Bishop is only there because she is the deputy leader. If that wasn’t the case she would be in the outer ministry.

  15. I hope labor has the footage of Hockey in parliament goading Ford to leave ready for an election campaign.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-14/study-warns-carmakers-exit-could-see-200000-jobs-lost/5389682

    this will flow on and on – the loss of 100,000 well paid jobs in Victoria will hit many service supplier businesses and communities very hard. Geelong will bear the brunt, but there will be many other manufacturers and service suppliers (including waste management and recycling companies, vocational training, engineering firms, etc) who will suffer huge losses.

    for the sake of a few tens of millions to leverage investment in the state, abbott and hockey have cost us billions with the perverse logic that we’ll get cheaper imported cars. I suspect their decision has more to do with weakening unions than the media has bothered to discuss/investigate.

  16. In the good old days when these services were being assembled by various Labor governments, the responsible Minister/s would have been in Cabinet.

  17. [822
    Sir sustainable future

    I suspect their decision has more to do with weakening unions…]

    Sections of the L-NP have always had it in for the auto industry because it was a Labor creation. First Chifley and later Button/Hawke are identified as the industry’s patrons. They are happy to destroy it for that reason alone.

  18. [for the sake of a few tens of millions to leverage investment in the state, abbott and hockey have cost us billions with the perverse logic that we’ll get cheaper imported cars. I suspect their decision has more to do with weakening unions than the media has bothered to discuss/investigate.]
    A Flinders Uni study found that 80% of former Mitsubishi workers who were 50 or older when the factory closed are yet to find new jobs.

  19. I hope labor has the footage of Hockey in parliament goading Ford to leave ready for an election campaign.

    That plus Abbott promising not to touch pensions, Abbott declaring a ‘Unity Ticket’ on Gonski, Abbott committing to the NDIS…

    And Abbott declaring ‘No excuses, no surprises’ followed by the long list of excuses and surprises – probably too many for a 30 second grab so just the big ones. Boerwar’s list if broken promises might be a handy reference. It must have 100 items by now.

  20. I don’t know about the volume of the MCG, but i know I can hear the volume at Pattison Stadium, esspecialy when Freo kicks a goal.

  21. I asked an ex-servicewoman I met whether she knew Jacqui Lambie. She answered wtte “Oh, she was Military Police. We didn’t really mix”.

  22. [Payne joined the Liberal partyroom around the same year as Gillard.]

    I had a few doubts about Ms Gillard. That explains it.

  23. [A Flinders Uni study found that 80% of former Mitsubishi workers who were 50 or older when the factory closed are yet to find new jobs.]

    I wonder what the average rate of re-employment for anyone who loses a job post-50 is? (& as someone only a few years off that age, I seriously wonder about it – if my business went broke, would I be able to win a job? – I’m seeing friends hitting this barrier now, ending up doing contract work or trying self-employment) – and yet – during a period of unprecedented growth and wealth we’ve seen the pension age go up from 55 (for women, teachers and many public servants), to 60 to 65 to 67 and now 70. There’s something to be said for allowing the pension to flow earlier, but making it easier for the over 60s to work part time to supplement their pension/super for as long as they want to – not increasing the retirement age so as to save money and ‘win’ unused super from those who die before they retire..

  24. Rox…

    [Roxana was the daughter of a minor Bactrian baron named Oxyartes of Balkh in Bactria (around modern-day Balkh province of Afghanistan), and married Alexander the Great at a young age, after he visited the fortress of Sogdian Rock. In 327 BC Alexander married Roxana despite the strong opposition from all his companions and generals.

    After Alexander’s sudden death at Babylon in 323 BC, she bore him a posthumous son called Alexander. Also, after Alexander’s death, Roxana murdered Alexander’s other widow, Stateira II, as well as either Stateira’s sister Drypteis or Parysatis II (Alexander’s third wife).

    Roxana and her son were protected by Alexander’s mother, Olympias, in Macedonia, but her assassination in 316 BC allowed Cassander to seek kingship. Since Alexander IV Aegus was the legitimate heir to the Alexandrian empire, Cassander ordered him and Roxana to be assassinated ca. 310 BC.]

    Some argue Roxana was responsible for the poisoning of Alexander’s lifelong friend, possible lover and second-in-command, Hephaestion and the Alexander himself.

  25. SSF

    Your point is well made

    Increasing the pension age will give the Tories a headline, they are “doing something and it will save x billions…”
    But when?
    Any changes will have to be phased in over decades, even Labor’s plan to take it to 67 won’t apply till 2023.
    I suspect a smokescreen is involved here.

  26. A US writer says the US hasn’t betrayed the Ukraine…as the Ukr Govt says today it has…it had never promised any substantial aid..and the Ukrainians had been mislead by some injudicious people in the USA like John McCain who promised all sorts of help

    Miltary aid was never on the cards,and isn’t n

    The author says the White House says the Ukr must solve their own problems…because the US ability to aid is very limited
    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/the-u-s-hasnt-betrayed-ukraine/

  27. [A US writer says the US hasn’t betrayed the Ukraine…as the Ukr Govt says today it has…it had never promised any substantial aid..and the Ukrainians had been mislead by some injudicious people in the USA like John McCain who promised all sorts of help]
    What the crap are you going on about now? The U.S. government has given Ukraine $1 billion in aid through loan guarantees. President Obama signed the bill into law a week and a half ago:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/03/obama-ukraine-aid_n_5085921.html

    Your anti-American hatred is f’ing hilarious, but you don’t seem to actually stay up to date with the news.

  28. I suspect a school leaver today will most likely have a service sector job and will have compulsive super so working until they are 70 shouldn’t be seen as a bad thing, plus with medical technology it is possible that when they reach 70 it will be nothing like today’s 70 year olds.

  29. Re Rossmg @834: I suspect a smokescreen is involved here.

    I suspect you’re right. The Government is looking for scapegoats to blame for their ongoing failures. They can fix the budgetary problems (there is no ‘crisis’ or ’emergency’) by tackling the age of entitlement for big corporations and the wealthy. But they’re not prepared to do that so they’ll blame unions, the previous government, the allegedly workshy or, in this case, demographics.

    Why aren’t they looking at the absurd concessions for superannuation, which mainly benefit providers and the wealthy? Rhetorical question.

  30. a twenty year old today wont be 70 until 2064

    Putting a side two world wars and a great depression medicine did change a fair bit between 1914 and 1964.

  31. Anyone know about ACCC data breech ?

    sortius ‏@sortius 26m

    I think it’s pretty big news that ACCC had a data breech revealing private info of users… ie: Australian businesses.

    I think this is the second time that this gov has done similar things, the first one was putting Asylum Seekers info on the website.

  32. I’ve been browsing one of the documents published by IPCC – the Working Group II/Assessment Report 5, as below.

    It’s interesting reading. This is one of its introductory statements on renewables…

    FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 1

    1.3.1. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)

    The SRREN (IPCC, 2011a) assesses literature on the challenges of integrating renewable energy sources into existing energy sources to meet the goals of climate change mitigation and sustainable development. More specifically, it examines six renewable energy sources (bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean, and wind energy) in terms of available technologies, technological potential, and associated costs. The SRREN found that the deployment of renewable energy technologies has increased rapidly in recent years, often associated with cost reductions that are expected to continue with advancing technology. Despite the small contribution of renewable energy to current energy supplies, SRREN shows the global potential of renewable energy to be substantially higher than the global energy demand. It is therefore not the technological potential of renewable energy that constrains its development, but rather economic factors, system integration, infrastructure constraints, public acceptance, and sustainability concerns (IPCC, 2011a). Several SRREN findings have clear linkages with this assessment of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability….

    This is a critical observation in my opinion:

    [….SRREN shows the global potential of renewable energy to be substantially higher than the global energy demand. It is therefore not the technological potential of renewable energy that constrains its development….]

  33. [839
    mexicanbeemer

    a twenty year old today wont be 70 until 2064]

    And this 20 yo will probably have a life expectancy of more than 90 years.

  34. Shows On 835
    ________
    Your comment are not hilarious but just stupid and ill-informed
    My”anti-american” comments are from today’s American Comservative,which are backed up by an article in The Wall Street Journal. saying just what I said…….anti-American too??
    The WSJ says the same thing,but goes further and talks of US betrayal….
    and that 1.Billion you mention has been in the pipeline for weeks and is very old news…and of little importance given the multi-billion dollars debts the Ukr Goivt is now facing

    see WSJ….
    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304117904579499762012132306?mg=reno64-wsj

    but that is it anyway for aid

  35. 839

    Some of the increase in life expectancy has come from the ability of a greater proportion to get medical help. So much so that there is not much further that trend can go in a developed nation like Australia.

    Vaccines for the big killers helped. Not much more to gain there either.

    Removing horses from cities and better water and sewerage systems have helped a lot as well. Again not much gain there.

    Antibiotics have been a big help too. No big gains coming there either.

  36. I think we’re going to need lots of bots to do things for us. The workforce will not be large enough to provide all the goods and services the whole population will require…that is unless medicine can also find ways to rebuild muscle and bone and restore neurological capacity. In this case, of course, we might expect to live for a very long time indeed.

  37. [briefly
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 11:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Rox…

    Roxana was the daughter of a minor Bactrian baron named Oxyartes of Balkh in Bactria (around modern-day Balkh province of Afghanistan), and married Alexander the Great at a young age, after he visited the fortress of Sogdian Rock. In 327 BC Alexander married Roxana despite the strong opposition from all his companions and generals……

    Some argue Roxana was responsible for the poisoning of Alexander’s lifelong friend, possible lover and second-in-command, Hephaestion and the Alexander himself.]

    There was also Roxelana Sultan, wife of Sulieman the Magnificent. We’re not to be trifled with, 😉

  38. Tom

    There is plenty of potential for improved treatments for a waide range of medical conditions, its quite possible that in fifty years time cancer might be reduced to how we view the current day flu.

    Stem Cell research offers the potential for a range of treatments which we can only start to image.

    A 70 year old in 2064 should be healthier than a 70 year old is today.

  39. 845
    Tom the first and best

    I think science has only just scratched the surface. Before the end of this century it will be quite common for people to live until they’re 100 or more. Who knows, within a few decades we may be able to contemplate indefinitely long lives…

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