Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. g
    I assume that the Cabinet will be looking at the sweeteners for NSW. The sheer amount of work involved will kick start the NSW economy. And once it has started at least some of the political heat will dissipate.

    But in terms of infrastructure, Melbourne and Sydney badly need to invest far more heavily in public transport.

    Off the freeways, my recent trips by car around Melbourne averaged 12.7kph. It was excruciating stuff.

  2. O’Farrell has already been softened up on Badgerys – he’ll tow the company line.

    I’ve said before that the Badgerys decision is not the political hazard that the ALP, in particular, think it is, and Albo should have made a decision for Badgerys years ago…

  3. @postboxadam: Wow. RT @smh: Fed cabinet expected to meet Tuesday to approve Badgerys Creek as the location of Sydney’s 2nd airport…

    Credit where credit’s due – the Abbott Government looks as though it’s about to make a good decision.

    It was practically done and dusted in the mid 1990s when John Howard decided to go back to the drawing board.

  4. Penny Wong is quiet tonight

    Maurise? Payne is the smartest liberal I have seen in many years. She is not a week chinned sooky boy nor a red necked low intellect type from the local chamber of commerce.

  5. [I’ve said before that the Badgerys decision is not the political hazard that the ALP, in particular, think it is, and Albo should have made a decision for Badgerys years ago…]
    There was no point Albanese making the decision because O’Farrell rejected it when he was Opposition Leader and when he was first elected.

  6. [It’s a long way between drinks but tonight’s show is gold.]

    Qanda is a WOFTAM in my view. Get rid of it. It serves no purpose apart from driving the media cycle the next day.

  7. Even though i am strongly opposed to the concept of national service Lambie’s suggestion that young people should consider volunteering as a way to build experience is a sound idea.

    Employers view volunteering as useful experience and can provide skills for use in the real workforce.

    The mistake many young people make is thinking that the university degree on its own will give them a job.

  8. Volunteering for the military?

    Lambie knows perfectly well that the first rule of the private is never to volunteer for anything.

  9. We either build Sydney’s second Airport at Badgery’s Creek or we decide that Sydney won’t ever have a second international airport and identify and plan for the consequences of that decision.

  10. Who said world affairs don’t come with a laugh ??
    _________________
    Today The American Conservative reports that the White House et al…are furious with Israel which had declined to support the US over the Crimea and the Ukraine…taking a neutral position as they say..and keeping in good relations with Moscow….and after all that money they have got from the USA(calculated since 1948…as $119 Billion dollars US)
    such ingratitude !!!

    I bet that behind the scenes there are a few very anti-semitic remarks in the White House today

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/israels-unsurprising-response-to-crimean-annexation/

  11. Malcolm Turnbull allegedly did a cost benefit analysis on the Coalition’s excuse for an NBN.

    But in reality he didn’t.

  12. [ Lambie knows perfectly well that the first rule of the private ]

    Belive it or not, i read somewhere that she was an officer.

  13. [mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything

    Thought you were watching. Next to Penny.]

    I have never seen her before. Yes she was good!

    It was a fun QandA tonight.

    Good to hear that the Chinese QandA from last week was shown on Chinese TV as well (although Tony didn’t say whether it was edited or not).

  14. Everything

    Sorry, thought you meant which one was she. I haven’t seem much of Garnaut before, is she related to Ross?

  15. [Maurise? Payne is the smartest liberal I have seen in many years. She is not a week chinned sooky boy nor a red necked low intellect type from the local chamber of commerce.]

    Payne joined the Liberal partyroom around the same year as Gillard. Since then she’s been overlooked for ministries and front bench positions all throughout the Howard years, the Liberal opposition years, and now, the Liberal govt years. I believe she has some minor ministry whatever it might be.

    Compare and contrast with Gillard who reached Deputy LOTO, Deputy PM, senior Cabinet minister, and then Prime Minister in her tenure in parliament.

    Meanwhile Payne is relegated by the Liberals to suck it up on some WOFTAM ABC show that nobody watches.

    Yeah, she’s an absolute stand out.

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