Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Ah, because if war shows up on our shores we are in trouble!!!! Sort it out by training all our youth to kill.

    Hmmm…wonder what her attitude to mandatory gun ownership is???

  2. imacca

    A brain fart a minute.

    She seemed vaguely surprised to find herself amongst the sort of people who laughed openly at what she was harrumphing about.

  3. The polls will show in the weeks ahead…as they tend to now…that Abbott/Hockey has scared his key base support…the over 60ies with his remarks on the Age Pension

    I base his on listening to the talk-backs in Vic in recent.days..the oldies are scared…with good reason …and they are the libs heartland
    These people are a really mad lot in our government today

  4. We have 50,000 folk in the army?

    YIKES!

    There is some money we can chop off expenditure right there…..what do we need all those people in the army for? An invasion from New Zealand?

  5. i

    Ah! Jacquie a Lambie to the political slaughter.

    The military and the legal industries are vastly over-represented in our parliament.

  6. [ She seemed vaguely surprised to find herself amongst the sort of people who laughed openly at what she was harrumphing about. ]

    I noticed that. I suspect she may have some issues as a Senator if she does not receive a constant flow of instruction from Clive Central.

    Has anyone seen any of the other PuP’s speak yet??

  7. E

    That would be ADF in toto; so it includes army, navy and airforce.

    Now that we are withdrawing from our various Liberal wars and we are going to pay through the nose for Klutzfighters and four DIY Klutzsubs, the ADF numbers will probably be reduced.

  8. ShowsOn@695

    Should I discuss it with my Barrister?

    I try to avoid discussions with my Barrister for 2 reasons:
    1. I haven’t time to arrange a second mortgage.
    2. I don’t have a Barrister.


    You should allegedly piss off.

    Shows, stop being mean to Mad Lib. You might make her cry. 😛

  9. “@JaneCaro: #qanda If the PUP party is holding balance of power….it’ll be entertaining & terrifying in equal measure.”

  10. Sloan reckons that we have all got to chip in.

    The farmers will be pleased with that.
    So will the miners.
    So will the banks.
    So will the finance industry spivs.

  11. Lambie back on war veterans and their orphans.

    ‘These guys have died for their country and they have their kids there.’

  12. “@vanbadham: Voting PUP is essentially an electoral admission that you’re weak, poorly educated and very scared.
    Sigh.
    #qanda”

  13. The PuPs are to the Libs as the Greens were to Labor.

    Could not happen to a nicer mob.

    …not forgetting that the Nats are just about ready to escape from the reservation.

  14. [@vanbadham: Voting PUP is essentially an electoral admission that you’re weak, poorly educated and very scared.
    Sigh.]

    And yet PUP has boat people policies which are to the left of the Greens.

    #confused

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