Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Of course what this highlights is that this isn’t the time to cut or under invest in medical and scientific research.

  2. 847…Roxanna

    [Suleiman I /ˌsʊlɪˈmɑːn/, known as “the Magnificent” in the West and “Kanuni” (the Lawgiver) in the East, (6 November 1494 – 7 September 1566) was the tenth and longest-reigning Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, from 1520 to his death in 1566.

    Suleiman became a prominent monarch of 16th-century Europe, presiding over the apex of the Ottoman Empire’s military, political and economic power. Suleiman personally led Ottoman armies in conquering the Christian strongholds of Belgrade, Rhodes, as well as most of Hungary before his conquests were checked at the Siege of Vienna in 1529. He annexed much of the Middle East in his conflict with the Safavids and large areas of North Africa as far west as Algeria. Under his rule, the Ottoman fleet dominated the seas from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and through the Persian Gulf.

    At the helm of an expanding empire, Suleiman personally instituted major legislative changes relating to society, education, taxation, and criminal law. His canonical law (or the Kanuns) fixed the form of the empire for centuries after his death. Not only was Suleiman a distinguished poet and goldsmith; he also became a great patron of culture, overseeing the “Golden” age of the Ottoman Empire in its artistic, literary and architectural development.

    In a break with Ottoman tradition, Suleiman married Roxelana, a former Christian girl converted to Islam from his harem, who became subsequently known and influential as Hürrem Sultan. Their son, Selim II, succeeded Suleiman following his death in 1566 after 46 years of rule.]

    very cool 🙂

  3. Hürrem Sultan

    [She was known mainly as Haseki Hürrem Sultan or Hürrem Haseki Sultan; also known as Roxolena, Roxolana, Roxelane, Rossa, Ružica; in Turkish as Hürrem (from Persian: خرم‎ Khurram, “the cheerful one”); and in Arabic as Karima (Arabic: كريمة‎, “the noble one”). “Roxelana” might be not a proper name but a nickname, referring to her Ukrainian heritage (cf. the common contemporary name “Ruslana”); “Roxolany” or “Roxelany” was one of the names of Ukrainians, East Slavs, inhabitants of the present Ukraine, up to the 15th century, after the ancient Roxolani. Thus her nickname would literally mean “The Ruthenian One”.

    She quickly came to the attention of her master, and attracted the jealousy of her rivals. She soon proved to be Suleiman’s favorite consort or Haseki Sultan. Hürrem’s influence over the Sultan soon became legendary. She was to bear six of Suleiman’s fourteen children and in an astonishing break with tradition, she was eventually freed. Breaking with two centuries of Ottoman tradition, a former concubine had thus become the legal wife of the Sultan, much to the astonishment of observers in the palace and the city. It made Suleiman the first Ottoman emperor to have a wed wife since Orhan Gazi and strengthened Hürrem’s position in the palace and eventually led to one of her sons, Selim, inheriting the empire.

    In the Istanbul harem, Hürrem Sultan was a very influential rival for Mahidevran Sultan. Hürrem gave birth to her first son Mehmed in 1521 (who died in 1543) and then four other sons including Selim (future Sultan Selim II) in 1524…]

  4. [852
    mexicanbeemer

    Of course what this highlights is that this isn’t the time to cut or under invest in medical and scientific research.]

    Exactly right, mb.

  5. [but that is it anyway for aid]
    LOLOLOLOL

    SO you now concede that the US sent Ukraine US$1 billion in aid, even though you were completely oblivious to this fact in your previous post.

    You’re a tosser.

  6. Shows On
    _____ your the tosser///that $1billion is very old news some weeks ago it was first introduced to Congress
    Obviously you only learned of it tonight
    my point was that it is seen as a very small piece of aid…which is all Obama is prepared to do

    Tonight the Ukr Govt has announced it will accept the Russian call for a referendum in the easern regions to set up autonomous regions for Russian speakers…thus admitting their earlier policies were wrong

  7. Irony alert.

    [“How important is press freedom?
    A safe and strong media underpins democracy”]

    That’s part of the blurb of a banner ad on the sidebar here now announcing a Crikey discounted cost of $140 to attend the conference being advertised.

    Given the present state of the media in Australia with its print duopoly, a subservient ABC and the fellow traveller status of TV and radio and the blatant and transparent political bias of such I wonder if the organisers and potential attendees of that conference are aware of the irony implicit in the theme of that conference?
    I just love the buzz words – ‘strong’, ‘safe’, ‘freedom’, ‘democracy’.

    Be interesting to read what goes on at that conference.

  8. [It is therefore not the technological potential of renewable energy that constrains its development….]

    Mentioned by briefly at #841

    I remember, may even be able to find a link, that several years ago, at least 7 years ago, CSIRO produced a report [that was suppressed at the time but was available in restricted form] that the entirety of Australia’s electricity needs, baseload, off peak and peak, could be provided with existing technology of the time by solar power generation within a time frame that, if memory serves me well, has probably been reached by now.

    Ironic [that’s my word of the day].

  9. My original link to the CSIRO report, which sort of came out in May 2006 has hit a 404 brick wall but by googling the headline from the Canberra Times [which referred to it] I found some links.
    Try googling this:
    “solar is a real option csiro report says solar will soon match coal’
    and you will get some interesting articles.

  10. Morning all. Victoria I did not see Four Corners but I have read about that car industry report. I find it unbelievable, based on assumptions that are obviously untrue re $ value and job growth.

    Meanwhile Cyclone Ita has done some damage. It has probably done a billion in road damage too. Lucky Campbell sacked all those lazy road workers. The roads will repait themselves now.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/worlds-biggest-silica-mine-damaged-by-cyclone-ita-20140414-36nr2.html

    Now BHPB and Rio are fighting international tax reform. What fine corporate citizens they are.
    http://www.watoday.com.au/business/bhp-rio-join-campaign-against-oecd-limits-on-profitshifting-20140414-36noz.html

  11. So I see Badgery’s Creek is back in the news today.

    I wonder what the LNP is up to that Credlin believes we need distracting from?

  12. Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 7:28 am | PERMALINK
    Russia’s creeping annexation of the Ukraine continues.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/ukraine-asks-un-for-help-as-prorussian-militias-defy-deadline-to-seize-more-ground-20140415-zqus2.html

    ——————-i wonder if anyone here will put up their hand to justify putin against the cia inspired nazi led conspiracy in Ukraine. some nightowls might.

    there are no more than 5 major companies in russia and west would pull plug on them in a week. hope it does so this week

  13. Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 7:26 am | PERMALINK
    Is Hockey really going to reform our pensions, or is this softening up for the budget?
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/pension-age-rise-australians-to-become-some-of-the-oldest-workers-in-the-world-20140414-zqunv.html

    Those concerned about social justice should be paying more concern to the plight of the young.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/youth-unemployment-generation-jobless-at-risk-of-becoming-reality-20140414-zquf3.html

    –libs always use the economic reichstag propaganda – socialists are destroying the country – they basically resent govt ownership and spending and want massive transfer to private hands regardless of total costs and inefficiencies in areas such as transport health and education — they have talked down this economy for six years, and will continue to until it is recession and needs no further encouragement. their destruction of auto industry as favour to japan and south korea free trade was an economical and technological obscenity

  14. victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 7:11 am | PERMALINK
    Morning all

    Thanks Otiose for the roundup.

    I watched four corners report last night re the car industry, and this was referenced in it

    The closure of car manufacturing could cost Australia nearly 200,000 jobs and $29 billion in lost economic output, a new report predicts.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-14/study-warns-carmakers-exit-could-see-200000-jobs-lost/5389682

    —— they can pick fruit

  15. [ White House Admits CIA Director Brennan Was “Secretly” In Kiev

    “We don’t normally comment on the CIA director’s travel but given the extraordinary circumstances in this case and the false claims being leveled by the Russians at the CIA we can confirm that the director was in Kiev as part of a trip to Europe,” White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters.

    According to media reports, Russia has urged Washington to explain what Brennan was doing in Ukraine.

    “Senior level visits of intelligence officials are a standard means of fostering mutually beneficial security cooperation including U.S.-Russian intelligence collaboration going back to the beginnings of the post-Cold War era,” Carney said.

    “U.S. and Russian intelligence officials have met over the years. To imply that U.S. officials meeting with their counterparts is anything other than in the same spirit is absurd,” he said
    ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-14/white-house-admits-cia-director-brennan-was-secretly-kiev

    [ Russian Fighter Jet Flies Repeatedly Within 1000 Yards Of US Warship In The Black Sea

    A second US warship, the destroyer Donald Cook, crossed the Bosphorus last week and entered the Black Sea at precisely the time when NATO was arguing that its encroaching presence around Russia should not spook anyone.

    Apparently it spooked someone, namely Russia, which over the weekend decided to give the Americans a warm welcome.

    As AP reports, “A U.S. military official says a Russian fighter jet made multiple, close-range passes near an American warship in the Black Sea for more than 90 minutes Saturday amid escalating tensions in the region.”]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-14/russian-fighter-jet-flies-repeatedly-within-1000-yards-us-warship-black-sea

    [US Pays Half Of Gazprom’s Overdue Invoice With $1 Billion Ukraine Loan Guarantee

    With Ukraine no longer paying for Russian gaz, and with Gazprom making it clear Kiev has to

    a) first pay the overdue $2+ billion in invoice and then

    b) prepay some $5 billion in gas until the end of the year of Europe gets it, it was only a matter of time before the US Treasury stepped in and paid off part or all of Gazprom’s demands.

    That time is now, when moments ago Jack Lew announced a $1 billion loan guarantee for Ukraine – very much the same way that the US provided billions in loan guarnatees for the now long overthrown Mursi regime in Egypt.

    And in other news, many more “costly” and “damaging” US sanctions are surely headed Russia’s way any second now. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-14/us-treasury-pays-half-gazproms-overdue-bill-1-billion-ukraine-loan-guarantee

    [ East Ukraine Braces For Military Operation As Ultimatum Passes: Full Ukraine Event Recap

    As was expected, so called Russian separatists completely ignored Ukraine’s 0600 GMT ultimatum to hand over their weapons and give up, which means Ukraine now is in the clear, according to its leaders, to engage in the previously warned military “anti-terrorist” operation. As a result, as Reuters updates, “towns in eastern Ukraine on Monday braced for military action

    In Slaviansk as of 9 a.m. local time on Monday, a Russian flag still flew over police headquarters, one of two buildings taken over by the separatists, while masked men continued to man barricades of sandbags in front of it.

    Even as the deadline passed, a truck appeared bringing more tyres to heap on top of the barricades to reinforce them.

    There was tension in the air as people tried to go about their normal business, though school and colleges have been closed and parents advised to keep their children indoors.

    Alexei Myzenko, a 38-year-old bank teller, was at work as usual, but he said he and his wife had told their son, who is at university in the eastern town of Kharkiv, not to attend lectures on Monday.

    “We didn’t want anything to happen to him,” said Myzenko. “Of course, some people are afraid. But they are still lining up to get their pensions,” he said.

    Myzenko said his wife, who is a teacher, had been called by the town administration to tell her that school was cancelled until further notice.
    ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-14/east-ukraine-braces-military-operation-ultimatum-passes-full-ukraine-event-recap

  16. [ Unrigged Market Soars On 3:30 PM Fundamental Bullish Catalyst

    The US open was enough of an event to decouple stocks (up) from USDJPY (down) but as we approached the crucial 3:30ET “fundamental” stocks had caught down to USDJPY weakness (worth noting that USDJPY tagged 102 in the pre-open and plunged).

    The 3:30 Ramp – JPY and VIX driven – was right on time getting S&P to VWAP and up to its 100DMA and Nasdaq back above 4000.

    Away from the roller-coaster ride in hope, faith, and BTFD (ie Buy the Fcuking Dip) charity in stocks, Treasuries leaked higher in yield all day (with 5Y underperforming and 30Y unch).

    The USD was bid (+0.3%) led by EUR weakness. USD strength pressured commodities but Gold was bid (closing above $1325 at 3-week highs).

    …All major equity indices remain red year-to-date (and negative from 3/19’s FOMC).

    All “normal” and full of unriggedness. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-14/unrigged-market-soars-330-pm-fundamental-bullish-catalyst

  17. Hugh White has an article in today’s CT which more or less states that Johnston, while a bit of a techie, has not got a clue about how the techie bits might fit into the submarine decision.

    White has his fingers crossed that the White Paper will be good enough to fill the blanks in Johnston’s brain. But he is not hopeful, given the quality of the last two White Papers.

    Nicholas Stuart also has an article in today’s CT on the same topic which more or less demonstrates that he knows about as much as Johnston.

    Sigh.

  18. about to close down and saw this
    Lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 8:05 am | PERMALINK
    Tandberg brought tears to my eyes.

    :large

    Thank you also brought tears and memories to me also

    You take care

  19. about to close down and saw this
    Lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 8:05 am | PERMALINK
    Tandberg brought tears to my eyes.

    :large

    Thank you also brought tears and memories to me also

    You take care

  20. Greens Senator and Chairman of the Senate Select Committee in to the Abbott Government’s Commission of Audit, Richard Di Natale, was interviewed this morning on RN:
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/richard-di-natale-proposes-alternative-savings/5390404

    [The push for a radical shakeup of the aged pension has come from the Government’s Commission of Audit whose report is expected to be released next week.

    A special Senate select committee has been scrutinising the Commission process right from the start.

    This morning in Canberra it will hold a hearing focusing on alternative savings measures the Government could be looking at, such as cutting generous tax concessions on superannuation, negative gearing and the diesel fuel rebate.]

  21. Move along, says Greg Hunt. Nothing to see here. Clean coal will save us.

    [A report released last year, which had input from the University of Western Australia’s Oceans Institute, found global warming could cause oceans to become 170% more acidic by the end of the century, the fastest rate of acidification in the past 300 million years.

    Hugh Sweatman, research scientist at AIMS, said: “The acidification of the ocean is much discussed because it’s potentially a gigantic thing. It’s the difference between normal water and soda water, if you like.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/14/entire-marine-food-chain-at-risk-from-rising-co2-levels-in-water

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/14/coal-will-be-a-main-energy-source-for-decades-and-decades-says-greg-hunt

  22. Why the lies?
    [Secret government files reveal that Australian governments, diplomats and spies have known for more than 30 years that Israel has an arsenal of nuclear weapons, while continuing to deny any knowledge of its existence to the point of misleading Parliament.
    Previously secret diplomatic files declassified by the National Archives reveal a longstanding policy to turn a blind eye to Israel’s nuclear arsenal. Last week the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade again declined to comment on whether the Australian government thinks Israel is an undeclared nuclear weapons state.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-still-denies-israels-open-secret-of-a-nuclear-arsenal-20140414-36nr4.html#ixzz2ytzhJnc6

  23. [So concerned was the Rudd government about the costs faced by pensioners that in 2009 it asked the Bureau of Statistics to construct a special age pensioner cost of living index.
    The bureau discovered that pensioners spent only one-third as much as Australians in jobs and spent it differently. A much greater proportion went on food and health; a much lower proportion on education and housing and less on clothes and transport (without the need to travel to work).]

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/why-our-pension-scheme-is-too-generous-20140414-zqui8.html#ixzz2yu17UD9W

  24. The IPA at work. Some laughable theories and people in the climate denier network.

    [According to an email to supporters earlier this month from the IPA’s executive director John Roskam, the think tank has raised $144,545 towards a $175,000 target to publish a book Climate Change: The Facts 2014.

    Roskam reminded supporters that their donation for the book would be “tax deductible” and those prepared to part with $400 or more more would even get their name on the back cover.

    The list of chapter authors is a predictable line up of denialists and contrarians picked from the blogosphere, conservative media outlets and the associates of secretly funded conservative think tanks.

    They include Nigel Lawson, Stewart Franks, Bill Kininmonth, Mark Steyn, Donna Laframboise, Pat Michaels, Jennifer Marohasy, Andrew Bolt, Richard Lindzen, Jo Nova, Anthony Watts, James Delingpole, Bob Carter, Ross McKitrick and Ian Plimer.

    Yep. A few Aussies will have slightly fatter tax refunds (or thinner bills) in exchange for funding climate science denialism and contrarianism from a list of usual suspects.

    . . .

    The IPA doesn’t say where its funding comes from, but they seem to have plenty of cash coming in.

    In its accounts ending June 2012, the Melbourne organisation declared an income of $3.95 million, of which $2.2 million came in straight donations.

    Enough for a book or two, you’d think?]

    http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/04/14/tax-breaks-australia-fund-climate-misinformation-book

  25. http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/apr/14/guardian-washington-post-pulitzer-nsa-revelations
    [The Guardian and the Washington Post have been awarded the highest accolade in US journalism, winning the Pulitzer prize for public service for their groundbreaking articles on the National Security Agency’s surveillance activities based on the leaks of Edward Snowden.

    The award, announced in New York on Monday, comes 10 months after the Guardian published the first report based on the leaks from Snowden, revealing the agency’s bulk collection of US citizens’ phone records.]

  26. Here is Hugh White’s piece

    [Five years ago Kevin Rudd announced that Australia would build 12 new submarines to replace the six Collins-class boats ordered in the 1980s. Today there is still no decision about the kind of submarines we need, or who should build them.
    To his credit, Defence Minster David Johnston knows that this fumbling must stop, and he has promised to make the decisions needed to get things moving by next year. But to fulfil this promise he will need to answer some big questions, and it is not clear that he understands what those questions are, or why they matter so much to ensuring that we start building the right kind of submarines in the right way.]

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/australias-security-cant-be-subdivided-20140414-zqugn.html#ixzz2yu2PshSx

  27. [SEVEN months after the ABC’s The Hamster Decidesdepicted journalist Chris Kenny having sex with a dog, the broadcaster’s managing director Mark Scott has apologised for the skit and admitted the delayed response had been a “mistake”.

    The decision opens the door to a legal settlement with Kenny, a columnist and senior writer at The Australian.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/broadcast/abcs-mark-scott-sorry-over-chris-kenny-sketch/story-fna045gd-1226884395124#

    Will Kenny seek financial redress I wonder?

  28. victoria:

    Johnston was a very, very ordinary shadow defence minister. I’m not surprised to see White accusing him of fumbling, or not being sufficiently across the issues in his portfolio now he’s the actual minister.

  29. It’s hard to see any significant benefit from the trade agreement with Japan. An 18 year timetable for reduction in beef tariffs — from 38 per cent to 20 percent — is hardly raising excitement among Australian beef producers. In any event, the Japanese Government has not ruled out compensatory financial assistance to its beef industry or even imposing quotas.

  30. On display in this, and in other international forums, has been Abbott’s lack of graciousness for what he has inherited from the previous government. For four years, since Abbott disposed Turnbull, we have had a stream of rudeness and loutish invective from Abbott and his close supporters in the Liberal Party. It would come at no cost for the Coalition frontbench and others to display some decency and good manners by acknowledging the contributions of those who have gone before them.

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