BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

The Coalition lead in Newspoll causes the two parties to reach parity on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, while Tony Abbott pulls ahead of Bill Shorten on net approval.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged. On the seat projection, the Coalition is back in majority government territory, the meter having ticked in their favour by two seats in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. After a quiet spot last week, new leadership figures have emerged from Newspoll and Essential Research, and they find Tony Abbott with a rare lead over Bill Shorten on net approval, although preferred prime minister remains in the stasis it assumed in early December.

Also note that coverage of the Western Australian Senate count is ongoing on the dedicated thread, with a Liberal victory in the final seat looking increasingly likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

Comments Page 33 of 44
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  1. Thank God for Titanium Tony.

    According to the ABC, he has found the black box, knocked out a Cyclone, negotiated from scratch in a day or two, “free” trade treaties with Japan and Korea and told the Chinese he will sign any piece of paper they want as long as it is within the next news cycle.

    What a Man!!!

  2. davidwh

    Posted Saturday, April 12, 2014 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    QLD’ers don’t need to HTFA. We will get in and get it done without any special levies.

    You mean like the Qld Flood Levy introduced by Labor and campaigned against as a waste of taxpayer money by that fellow Queenslander = Abbott

  3. kezza2

    [I rather prefer Eisenhower’s warning of the rise of the Industrial Military Complex.]

    Eisenhower was on the money

  4. A bit of tech advice would be welcome.

    I’ve spent the greater part of the day trying to download some software for my printer: a Brother MFC-7440N

    Short story. I’m using my son’s old computer at the moment.
    OS = Windows 7 Home Premium, 64-bit

    But, each time I download, it won’t install.

    Stupid thing is, last year I managed to install it on my old clapped computer (similar to lizzie’s I think – pre-2002 egad) and I don’t know what to do to help it install.

    Talking to my son is useless – he’s got a gig tonight at Whole Lotta Love in Brunswick (and that’s despite the almost but last live music venue in Melbourne CBD being closed – hey thanks right there ex-Lib-Leader Robert Doyle) – and is too busy to give CPR over the phone.

    What’s the problem you say, considering I have it installed on the other computer?

    Well, this computer has Word 2013, and the other one Word 1998 urrgh.

    All I want to do is print off some binder spine labels – which aren’t available on Word 98 – unless I really want to fuck round without templates, etc.

    Anyone?

  5. QLD Labor conducted over 18 pre-selection ballots today for the upcoming State Election.

    In my seat of Greenslopes, which we lost by about 800 votes in 2012, the successful candidate won 82.5% of the branch vote.

    Both candidates were excellent and would be great acquisitions for the PLP.

    Unfortunately, only one could win today.

  6. I wonder what our neighbours think of Brandis’ plan to get change the RDA so it will all be Ok in Australia to call people “slopes, yellow peril, slant eyes and chinks”

  7. Victoria 1600 – phew … wasn’t sure anyone here except maybe for Psephos would get the point I was making. There is still hope, therefore, imo 🙂

    Briefly: Ditto and thanks.

  8. davidw

    [QLD’ers don’t need to HTFA. We will get in and get it done without any special levies.]

    This attitude: pompous, dishonest and without knowledge of history is why I left Queensland. Truly, I think, the most ignorant society I have ever been in.

    I worked with in Queensland for over 15 years….

    Some were intelligent and inquisitive but most gloried in their anti-intellectual resentment.

    In Brisbane they have created the ugliest city in Australia and they are proud of that because they think that somehow that will spite all those that Queenslanders spite (and they are legion).

    Weirdly, they only elect non-Queenslanders when they really want to get lumpen and spiteful: Joh, Campbell….

    Weird place, weird people…

  9. [1605
    feeney

    QLD Labor conducted over 18 pre-selection ballots today for the upcoming State Election.

    In my seat of Greenslopes, which we lost by about 800 votes in 2012, the successful candidate won 82.5% of the branch vote.

    Both candidates were excellent and would be great acquisitions for the PLP.

    Unfortunately, only one could win today.]

    Who were the candidates?

  10. For anyone interested

    [Tune into #insiders tmrw where we’ll talk to @JoeHockey who’s in Washington. On the panel: @CUhlmann @latingle @farrm51. 9am!]

  11. Hi Vic

    Thought you’d (along with every other female here) disappeared for the evening. And guessed you lot were just doing the womanly thing and catering for the household’s stomachs.

    Or, alternatively, bloody well pissed off with Carlton. I’m listening, sort of – keep turning down the volume in case I jinx them – for the first this year to the Cats, versus WCE.

    I didn’t quite finish what I was going to say about Eisenhower.

    What I meant was I rather prefer Eisenhower’s warning of the rise of the Industrial Military Complex as problematic for progression of civilisation.

    According to Morris, or it seems to me, that war inevitably leads to an increase in the Standard of Living.

    But what do we measure Standard of Living by?

    I often have arguments with my oldest son. He’s living in Germany and reckons the cost of living is much less than in Australia, yet I say to him Australian cities rank higher in terms of Standard of Living, or Most Liveable Cities, than anywhere in Europe, except maybe Denmark.

    He laughs, and says, of course Australian cities are safer (laura norder) and that’s integral to the system that ranks liveability, as well as access to services, or just services in general, but I don’t know.

    When are we ever going to be satisfied with what we’ve got.

  12. jeezus bloody christ, I’m suffering from word omission this evening.

    vic,

    re my post at 1612, I meant

    [According to Morris, or it seems to me his argument is, that war inevitably leads to an increase in the Standard of Living.]

    And add in the other words I missed, please.

  13. kezza2@1604

    A bit of tech advice would be welcome.

    I’ve spent the greater part of the day trying to download some software for my printer: a Brother MFC-7440N

    Short story. I’m using my son’s old computer at the moment.
    OS = Windows 7 Home Premium, 64-bit

    But, each time I download, it won’t install.

    Stupid thing is, last year I managed to install it on my old clapped computer (similar to lizzie’s I think – pre-2002 egad) and I don’t know what to do to help it install.

    Talking to my son is useless – he’s got a gig tonight at Whole Lotta Love in Brunswick (and that’s despite the almost but last live music venue in Melbourne CBD being closed – hey thanks right there ex-Lib-Leader Robert Doyle) – and is too busy to give CPR over the phone.

    What’s the problem you say, considering I have it installed on the other computer?

    Well, this computer has Word 2013, and the other one Word 1998 urrgh.

    All I want to do is print off some binder spine labels – which aren’t available on Word 98 – unless I really want to fuck round without templates, etc.

    Anyone?

    Go to the Brother website and download the latest driver for your OS and try installing that.

  14. Kezza2

    I did disappear for a while for dinner.

    Australia’s high standard of living is the exception, not the norm.
    Whilst living standards have improved for many, a sizeable portion of the world population live in abject poverty.

    Australians view their problems through the prism of first world eyes. That is why we are not satisfied.

  15. bemused
    [Go to the Brother website and download the latest driver for your OS and try installing that.]

    Ah, thanks.

    But what do you think, or where do you think, I’ve been trying download and install from all day.

    Even when I follow their manual install, it doesn’t work. Probably doesn’t help that my printer is obsolete (it’s only 3 years old and in perfect working order) but still what do you think the problem could be?

    Or are you suggesting I try to load drivers for an update of one of their printers? Or is that a silly question?

  16. New2This,

    [Thank God for Titanium Tony. You said it…]

    Remember what happened to the previous metallic core and non-core sample, the Man of Steel.

  17. vic
    [Re Carlton. My OH told me to ditch them and go with the rest of the family with the winning team of Hawthorn :D]
    Nah, never. Stick with blue and white.

  18. davidwh@1625

    Not sure Dave sounds like a gross generalization bordering on discrimination if we are being serious.

    You are entitled to state your view point as are others.

    I think Swampy makes good points as I’ve said.

    Politically, things have always been weird north of the Tweed, to me anyway.

  19. Meanwhile in Willoughby (Sydney North Shore), 10 candidates are vying for the Mayoralty in an election triggered by the death of the Mayor. With about half the vote counted, the Labor candidate is sitting on 6.4% of first preferences and four independent candidates are on about 20% each. Remaining candidates (all independent) are on less than 6%.

  20. vic
    [Australia’s high standard of living is the exception, not the norm.
    Whilst living standards have improved for many, a sizeable portion of the world population live in abject poverty.]
    So you don’t agree with Morris either. That war has made the world safer and more civilised.

    I think he’s missing the fact that it’s easier, as victors of war, to oppress the many, and while on the surface it appears peaceful, it certainly hasn’t added to a civilised society.

    To think that the USA has interfered in so many countries, and started so much civil strife to enable the wealthy to oppress their brothers and sisters, doesn’t strike me as an argument for the goodness of war.

  21. Steve777

    Are the ‘Independents’ really independents or are they not really stating their political affiliation ?

    I drove up through Naremburn this arvo and saw some booth workers posters etc.

  22. kezza2@1622

    bemused

    Go to the Brother website and download the latest driver for your OS and try installing that.


    Ah, thanks.

    But what do you think, or where do you think, I’ve been trying download and install from all day.

    Even when I follow their manual install, it doesn’t work. Probably doesn’t help that my printer is obsolete (it’s only 3 years old and in perfect working order) but still what do you think the problem could be?

    Or are you suggesting I try to load drivers for an update of one of their printers? Or is that a silly question?

    Un-install any drivers for that printer you may have previously installed. Re-start your computer and do a fresh install.

  23. And in WA state debt is heading towards a record $22 billion. The debt is costing West Australians $1.7 billion a year in interest.

    When Liberals gained power the state had a $3 billion debt.

    All those record royalties payments and booming stamp duty revenue..gone Bloody Liberals still yap on about good economic management.

    Barney the Rubble is now going to sell/privatise assets.

    Bloody disgrace. Privatisation = the legal transfer of taxpayer money to the corporations profit line that support the Liberal Party

  24. I agree QLD has had it share of weird politicians but that doesn’t mean we are all weird. Different in some ways certainly as it’s a pretty diverse and geographically widespread state.

  25. Re Dave @1632: a summary of the candidates and their policies/positions was provided in yesterday’s local Paper (the North Shore Times). Several of the independents declared their membership of the Liberal Party, including two (or three?) of the front runners.

    This is Joe Hockey’s electorate and adjacent state and Federal electorates are blue ribbon Liberal. Stating Liberal allegiance is probably an advantage here.

  26. vic
    [I have barracked for the blues since I was a little girl. I will always support them. Hawthorn are my second team.]

    I know.

    Actually, you’re one of the lucky ones. To have your next favourite team being the one the rest of your family loves.

    In my family (of 10, as I was growing up, i.e. parents & 8 kids) everyone barracked for Essendon except for Mum, me and my younger brother.

    When West Gippsland became the feeder for Hawthorn, Dad switched allegiance. So there was 6 Essendon, 3 Geelong and one Hawthorn.

    Since the demise of my parents and 2 siblings, the score is now 4 Essendon and 2 Geelong. And none of us will give an inch and would never every barrack for each others team.

    Worse, both my sons barrack for Essendon. I blame my sister. She got to them when I wasn’t looking.

    Ironically, my second favourite team is WCE. I hope we smash them tonight.

  27. davidwh@1635

    I agree QLD has had it share of weird politicians but that doesn’t mean we are all weird. Different in some ways certainly as it’s a pretty diverse and geographically widespread state.

    Qld seems to display itself ‘from my experience’ as proud to be bogan. Thats not quite the right word – but you get my drift.

    Also they seems quick to label southerners who move there as blow ins, mexicans, cockroaches etc etc.

    At the sametime they burr up pretty quickly if they get the same as they dish out.

    We looked at moving there when we retired but decided against and have never regretted it.

    Again, my experience of the place which was mainly North Queensland, but I found the place insular all over.

  28. bemused
    [Un-install any drivers for that printer you may have previously installed. Re-start your computer and do a fresh install.]

    Actually there’s another printer installed on the computer. I asked my son today if that could be preventing the installation of this printer. But he was too distracted.

    Could that be the problem?

    To me it shouldn’t be, but maybe it is, for some illogical reason.

    BTW, the printer that is installed is no longer operative, or at least no longer available. I’ve never seen it.

  29. Steve777@1636

    Re Dave @1632:

    This is Joe Hockey’s electorate and adjacent state and Federal electorates are blue ribbon Liberal. Stating Liberal allegiance is probably an advantage here.

    Ta Steve, I’m just a couple of Km’s down the road and still in hockey’s electorate.

    But plenty of Labor pockets around, Chatswood but also elsewhere.

  30. Kezza2

    Someone from the elite whose name escapes me, said not so long ago, there has been a class war and the ruling class has won.
    Perhaps Morris could ask the people of iraq if they were beneficiaries of the goodness of war. Cos as far as i can tell haliburton got all the goodness

  31. Nine military aircraft, one civil aircraft and 14 ships will continue the hunt for MH370 today, searching an area of more than 41,000 square km about 23,000km northwest of Perth.

    That large search area again appears to contradict Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s recent suggestion that the search area in the Indian Ocean has very much narrowed.

    Abbott has his own reality

  32. [ Someone from the elite whose name escapes me, said not so long ago, there has been a class war and the ruling class has won. ]

    Vic – I know Warren Buffett has used such and its also been used here in Australia.

    They think they will rule forever but they won’t.

    Even the cannon fodder who voted them in will react at some stage.

    The huge ticking time bomb are those who used to be the US middle class who now are working poor on minimum wage doing 2 or 3 jobs just to survive.

  33. AA

    I saw the latest report. Abbott manipulates the information, and our pathetic msm dutifully obliges reporting it as fact

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