GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.
Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).
UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.
@CC/146
You are misquoting people again, I ask you that you stop that.
If Bullock is the answer, what earth is the question?
Basically I think the economy is starting to imorove from a pretty shallow base with positive signs in market sectors, construction, tourism and retail, which have been struggling since 2008/2009. The job market may be starting to turn but it will be a very slow process for the remainder of 2014. None of that is due to the Abbott government. We are just starting to come out of a down cycle.
So yes jobs are being created.
Yes jobs are being lost.
Yes unemployment is still rising but with signs it is peaking.
Everybody is sort of right but only telling part of the story.
[152
Boerwar
If Bullock is the answer, what earth is the question?]
The question would be….Why on earth would non-Tory voters choose the Greens?
kakura
[In the upcoming mid-terms, the apathy of many Democrat voters combined with the motivation of GOP voters to register a protest vote against Obama, will lead to a bloodbath for Dems in Congress.]
Ugghh! Obama hasn’t had an easy run.
[Why on earth would non-Tory voters choose the Greens?]
Any voters really 🙂
BH
Doesn’t Obama have to resign at the end of two terms?
For what it’s worth there’s nothing so far in the finance dept stats to suggest the economy has begun to lift in any way…
http://www.finance.gov.au/publications/commonwealth-monthly-financial-statements/2014/mfs-february.html
The domestic economy still lacks momentum when looked at as a whole, though dwelling construction is improving from its former very low levels. Retail is uneven. In a good sign for real disposable household incomes, petrol prices have declined recently. On the negative side, the AUD remains very high.
@davidwh/153
The unemployment before Abbott took over was 5.7%, Abbott added to the unemployment because he didn’t support the car or manufacturing industry, added that to little to no state support for other sectors like Qantas.
Which added a few percentage points in his name.
Even though, back then, Unemployment was still rising even as Fulltime and part time jobs are rising, just not enough to counter act the Unemployment.
It is now tipped to reach 6.1%, only 0.8% from peak GFC level (which was 6.9%)? I can be corrected.
https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/wagereview2014/submissions/AFEI_sub_awr1314.pdf
Page 7:
“The economy now faces an environment where less dependence can be placed on the investment and growth generated by the construction phase of the current mining boom and requires more broadly based investment and income generation across the economy. This process would appear to be proceeding at a pace insufficient to generate the jobs needed to reduce unemployment, which is now forecast to remain above 6% into 2015-16.”
The key word here is construction, construction creates jobs.
For something different. How to spot a psychopath
http://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/how-to-spot-a-psychopath-20140408-36aaf.html
We don’t have Hanrahans Abbott & Hockey on TV every five minutes telling us ‘We’ll all be rooned’ anymore. Has got to improve confidence.
[157
MTBW
BH
Doesn’t Obama have to resign at the end of two terms?]
He doesn’t have to resign. His term expires and he cannot run for another term.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/04/08/essential-over-55s-climate-deniers-everyone-hates-direct-action/
[Essential: over-55s climate deniers, everyone hates Direct Action
Bernard Keane | Apr 08, 2014 12:39PM
Climate denialism is very closely linked to age, new polling from Essential Research finds. But support for the federal government’s “Direct Action” plan is minimal across the board.
Older Australians are much less likely to believe in anthropogenic climate change, with over-55s the only Australians to reject climate science, polling from Essential Research finds.
Some 56% of voters believe climate change is real and caused by humans, the highest level recorded since Essential began asking about climate change belief in November 2009; 34% of voters believe fluctuations in the earth’s climate are natural, the lowest level since the 34% recorded in 2009. Liberal voters also reject climate science, 51% to 39%, but that’s a big shift from January, when they split 61%-29%.
People over 55 in particular are very different to the rest of Australia. Only 42% of over-55s believe climate change is caused by humans, while 52% believe it’s natural. That compares to 60% of people under 55 who believe in anthropogenic climate change, and only 28% who think it’s natural. In fact, Essential finds a direct link between climate denialism and age, producing the result that those who will never see the worst effects of climate change are the greatest political impediment to action to address it, while younger people understand the costs they will face as a consequence of our inaction.
………..
Meanwhile, Tony Abbott has extended his lead as preferred prime minister over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten to 42%-32%, up from 39%-33% in March. Abbott leads among independent/other voters, 29%-23%. That’s despite Shorten reversing a worrying trend of negative approval ratings — in March his net approval rating was 7 points; it’s now back to 34%-38%. Abbott has basically remained steady, on 41% approval and 47% disapproval, compared to 40%-47% in March.
On voting intention, the two-party preferred outcome remains at 51%-49% to Labor, with the Coalition remaining on 43%, Labor dropping a point to 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United on 3%.]
briefly
Yes I know I expressed it incorrectly.
Well I work at the pointy-end of the construction cycle and we are experiencing the best start to a year since 2008. At the trough of the GFC our business fell to 40% of pre-GFC levels and in the past six months this has recovered to around 65% with an improving trend.
We are seeing more projects move beyond the DA point (since 2008/2009 too many projects got to DA and were parked or cancelled) which is a sign the confidence and funding has returned to see projects move through to construction. Providing it’s sustainable that’s a good sign for the economy generally.
I think there are reasons to be a little confident but with reservations.
[fredex @148 – the law applies to free speech just as much as it does to any other aspect of our lives.]
Does it?
How did you measure that?
Its a cute throwaway line but its pretty silly unless you can apply and evaluate it.
See you’re trying to use lawyer tricks to avoid the central issue – the right of a citizen to freedom of speech and to not be repressed by an employer simply because of the power differential.
You have avoided the gap between the law and ethics and haven’t addressed any concern of mine just pulled out red herrings or made assertions without foundation.
steve777 made the point that an employee can abide by the expectations of an employer and still have the right to political participation.
And its that right the the Howard government abrogated when it was in office, control of CSIRO and demotions of persons who were critical of policy being the most well known example but it was a general and widespread repression extending outside government departments to NGOs as well.
Silencing dissent was the aim and using their power to punish was the method.
That’s pretty fundamentally anti-democratic and dangerous and now Peta, I presume, and Abbott are trying it on again and the law which was largely irrelevant under Howard is being sidestepped again.
You should be worried.
CANEGROWERS @CANEGROWERS 1h
Why #JapanFTA is a bitter pill for sugarcane farmers – Hear @CANEGROWERS ABC Radio Qld Country Hour @ABCRural http://bit.ly/1hyeagU #sugar
Expand Reply Retweeted Favorite More
CANEGROWERS @CANEGROWERS 3h
‘Kick in the guts’ Sugarcane farmers gain not a singe cent trade benefit from #JapanFTA http://bit.ly/1hyeagU #sugar #agchatoz
Don’t think the canegrowers are too happy
“@latikambourke: Clive Palmer is calling on Campbell Newman to stand aside after the QLD premier was named at the ICAC yesterday. @abcnews”
As for the TAFE system in Victoria it is happening in NSW too and has been for a couple of years.
I was the only ever Chairman of the TAFE College in my area and then the NSW Government cut funds and did away with TAFE committees along with cutting a number of courses.
All about money!
@davidwh/165
I suppose it depends on your definition of construction? There are plenty of companies offer different construction jobs.
From Roads, to signage work, to housing.
guytaur
Clive is going to run his own race and on Newman I would agree with him.
MTBW
Palmer is Abbott’s nightmare. Unless in his own financial interest Palmer will go after Abbott.
A good example of this is AS. Pup will support Greens and Labor in getting rid of Morrisons secrecy.
[From Roads, to signage work, to housing.
]
All of the above and more however the sectors that are really starting to pick up are multi-residential, residential, retail and to a lesser extent industrial. Aged-care has activity but margins are really tight. Infrastructure and commercial are still in a slump although commercial is starting to show some dim glimmers of hope. Infrastructure won’t pick up until governments get their proverbial acts together.
Palmer on 24 now
sortius @sortius 36m
Fixed Line Services: 137GB/user over 3 months. Wireless: 1.3GB/user over the months. This is why we need an FTTP #NBN
@Philippa_mc: Defence Minister about to address media at Pearce RAAF base. http://t.co/qr4FqZ5CD3
@davidwh/173
Which is always the case with governments, imho.
[How to spot a psychopath
glibness and superficial charm, grandiose sense of self-worth, cunning/manipulative, pathological lying, emotional shallowness, callousness and lack of empathy, a tendency to boredom, impulsivity,…]
Mmm, reminds me of someone but can’t quite put my finger on it.
The saddest thing about the Bullock fiasco is that Labor relied upon enthusiastic young campaign workers in WA to make phone calls, etc etc. Clearly those kids didn’t understand just who they were working for. Otherwise, they would have run a mile. What a kick in the guts for Labor’s grassroots. What a con.
[160
victoria
For something different. How to spot a psychopath]
It’s quite possible to argue that organisations exhibit psychopathic traits – the military, security agencies, a great many corporations, the LNP….
@political_alert: Acting Opposition Leader Penny Wong is in Adelaide today and will hold a brief doorstop at 1.30pm (Adelaide time) #auspol
I’m hoping there will now be a big square up in parliament?
Palmer will be to the Libs what the Greens are to Labor – a great big nuisance and hindrance!
[Palmer will be to the Libs what the Greens are to Labor – a great big nuisance and hindrance!
]
No doubt about that although the PUP’s are likely to be less predictable which is worse. At least with the Greens you generally know what they stand for.
What we really need is a period of bi-partisanship between Labor and the Libs while they both get their respective houses in order however the chances of that are remote.
Basically I just see more periods of unstable government.
“@SabraLane: Sen John Faulkner: Labor must clearly demonstrate to all those within and without the Party that we have learnt from the past and that we…”
“@SabraLane: are fully committed to preventing corrupt behaviour ever again taking hold. (He’s asking NSW member to back his calls for reform).”
Re Briefly @180: that observation has been made: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Corporation_(film)
[No doubt about that although the PUP’s are likely to be less predictable which is worse. At least with the Greens you generally know what they stand for.
]
Well not so much. Rudd would have been forgiven for thinking supporting action on climate change was pretty much a core value. But it wasn’t.
WWP have to say I never really understood the Greens position on that. I think Rudd tried to be too smooth and sideline the Greens which may have made them act irrationally. Whatever the reasons it sure has shaped Australian politics since then.
What we really need is a period of bi-partisanship between Labor and the Libs while they both get their respective houses in order however the chances of that are remote.
While that would be good, it will be utterly impossible while Tony Abbott is Prime Minister and probably for as long as anyone who is now or will be senior in the Abbott Government remains in a position of influence.
WWP
Rudd knew. He chose instead to negotiate with Liberals This on the quite reasonable basis that he could not get Fielding to vote for an ETS.
Anyone saying otherwise is rewriting history.
Wonder if ICAC is LNP’s own goal?
[What we really need is a period of bi-partisanship between Labor and the Libs while they both get their respective houses in order however the chances of that are remote.]
So long as we continue to have a reluctance to cross the floor by the MPs of the major parties the fascination with minor parties will grow and with it instability (not that its necessarily a bad thing).
Getting their house in order isnt just about membership (in the case of the ALP). Its about how to accommodate a range of views within a major party and still stand for something. It is no longer a simple left-right dichotomy (it never was), and standing for the opposite of the other party doesnt wash. But I dont see much changing for some time.
Who is the pr-ck they have on Capital Hill. Bring back Wonder Woman please.
mikehilliard/briefly
Indeed
[WWP have to say I never really understood the Greens position on that. I think Rudd tried to be too smooth and sideline the Greens which may have made them act irrationally. Whatever the reasons it sure has shaped Australian politics since then.]
Yeah I agree but the greens were not sidelined by Rudd so much as the electorate – Rudd just failed to pretend they were important and they assumed they’d hold all the cards after labor won the next election easily. Both very wrong.
Latest report on iCAC proceedings
http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/phillip-costa–tells-icac-that-kerry-schott-was-nothing-short-of-excellent-despite-obeid-request-to-sack-the-bitch-20140408-36ai1.html
Scott is also having a go at Abbott:
Scott Ludlam @SenatorLudlam 2m
serious question: are there any women at all on the PM’s big trade delegation? #auspol
Essential Research:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2014/04/Essential-Report_140408.pdf
@BernardKeane: Statement by Senator John Faulkner on Labor reform, with attached letter: http://t.co/w0p9N0FcF3
Interesting a point went to National Party, instead of the Liberal Party, William.