A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/pm-coy-on-audit-report-release/story-fn3dxiwe-1226876045457
Hiding Audits.
“A day after the WA poll, Prime Minister Tony Abbott is still not saying when they will be publicly available”
“”We will release the Commission of Audit before the budget so people will have plenty of time to read its report, to digest its recommendations and to debate them,” he told reporters in Tokyo.”
There is not much longer before BUDGET guys!!!!
[WWP @1765 And the short coming of an MRRT is that if no or little profit is made, then the State gets nothing. I acknowledge Royalties aren’t perfect but they do at least mean we get paid for someone taking the resource – even if they don’t make a profit.]
Rofl
That isn’t a problem that is deliberate to ensure it doesn’t deter marginal projects while sharing the profits of very profitable projects much more fairly between the investors and the people of the country.
Royalties deter marginal investments and in relation to very profitable projects are the equivalent of selling a Ferrari at a Great Wall price – economic vandalism if the stupidest sort!
When Abbott talks about “read its report” “digest its recommendations” “debate them” keep in mind that what he actually means is being given the 2 sentence verbal summary by Credlin.
Abbott doesn’t do this “reading” and “thinking” and “debating” malarkey.
zoidlord
Did anyone get that from Tony in writing?
@latikambourke: John Faulkner & @AnthonyByrne_MP assemble a Parly House cast in House of Cards fundraiser spoof http://t.co/q6co0tA1js (incl. yours truly)
guytaur@1796
An email sent out by the ALP State Secretary in Victoria coyly referred to the death of a ‘close relative’ which just leaves people wondering.
Bill’s mum seems to have been a wonderful person and I can now understand how he is feeling and why he is taking time off.
Condolences to Bill Shorten and all his family. 🙁
In yet another demonstration that Abbott will put style before substance, he is about to sign a fake trade agreement with Japan. He is a complete fraud.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/04/coalition-to-conclude-shocker-fta-with-japan/
[It seems that the Abbott Government is willing to sign so-called “free trade agreements” (FTAs) at any cost, with reports emerging that it will soon announce that a sub-standard deal has been reached with Japan that provides only minimal access to Japanese agricultural markets…]
briefly@1800
“This was the basis of Twiggy’s claim in the HC, which was lost.”
Lost by Twiggy?
“If the only thing that was taxed were profits, very-low margin mines could be run to the point of total depletion and the public would get nothing (I know it’s an extreme example).”
Well that is just not true.
They would pay normal company tax and all other taxes companies pay.
Having shut down the local car manufacturing industry the LNP know they’ve screwed their bargaining position – without local manufacturing everyone knows the car import tariffs serve no purpose and will be going sooner rather than later, so there’s not a lot of bargaining value in offering to remove them in FTA negotiations …
briefly
Good grief. What an achievement it will be.
[Japan is ready to lower its tariff on Australian beef from 38.5% to somewhere in the 20s……..Japan is looking to leave a higher tariff in the upper 20s on …]
poroti@1810
Only mugs like Australia succumb to the myth of “free trade”.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/04/australian-lng-in-the-pricing-gun/
Changes in the international pricing mechanisms will have a much bigger effect on investment in Australian resource extraction than the trifling sideshow that is the MRRT….
[Japan is ready to lower its tariff on Australian beef from 38.5% to somewhere in the 20s……..Japan is looking to leave a higher tariff in the upper 20s on …]
What negotiators!
And for that we forgo (at least) the squillions collected from motor vehicle tarrifs.
More to deduct from the declining revenue collection.
[Only mugs like Australia succumb to the myth of “free trade”.
]
Yep but I can’t work out why. While many countries are ruthless in self interest we seem to be determined in self sacrifice.
The level of emotional attachment to the MRRT and CO2 Tax/ETS is amusing.
I will be interested to assess the level of angst when they are repealled.
I am even more interested to see what, if anything, the ALP takes to the next election on both those issues.
WeWantPaul@1814
That’s an excellent and succinct way of putting it.
Well done.
@CC/1815
Compared to?
Robert Hughes for guilty of child abuse.
Compact Crank
As someone who writes policy for the Labor party (albeit at State level), I can say positively that some kind of carbon price will be taken to the next election.
Recent responses from Labor regarding the recent Senate enquiry, which recommended shifting to a 15% target, indicates that any argument within the party is about the emissions target, not whether or not to commit to action.
BK
I imagine that after Tones leaves the negotiating table the Japanese would sound like this. @ the 22 second mark.
[The Laughing Policeman]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI1nPd7hezM
CC –
Your level of emotional attachment to the slogans of the LNP is amusing.
That the MRRT and carbon price will be repealed was determined on 7 September. Anyone who hasn’t already factored this in is just delusional. Why you would expect any particular wailing, gnashing of teeth, breast beating or whatever when the LNP succeeds in its foolish quest to repeal them I don’t know.
My current guess is that when the MRRT is repealed (well, partially repealed anyway) the ALP will consider the MRRT dead and move on and won’t be raising it again anytime soon. There will be no immediate point anyway – the mining boom has likely peaked and the era of “super profits” will likely pass shortly anyway.
As for carbon pricing, I’m less certain but the ALP have made all the right noises for long term support of carbon pricing. That surely means that they have to go to the next election promising to reintroduce a carbon price.
Of course it’s a “brave” move, and the ALP have shown a singular lack of bravery in any area of carbon pricing policy to date, but it’s not the political deathwish you and the LNP make it out to be.
The old adage is very true – oppositions don’t win government, governments lose government. The government will fall of its own accord (with a little scrutiny) sooner or later, and when it does whether the ALP is promising to bring back an ETS will not stop them from regaining government. And, of course, having a clearly stated consistently held policy and position on this will defuse scare campaigns/political point scoring over “broken promises” yada yada yada.
poroti
Yes, as the sake is raised that will be the sound!
Good comment by George Williams on the micro-party fiasco.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/wa-senate-poll-a-reminder-that-voters-are-being-tricked-20140406-zqrgm.html
[1808….bemused]
Twiggy tried to argue the MRRT was in fact a royalty and therefore unconstitutional. The HC decided it was not a royalty but was a tax. So the HC did not have to decide whether or not the Commonwealth could displace the States and impose royalties as well as taxes.
Leaving Twiggy aside, I was pointing to the case of a mine where the only “tax” paid is company tax – that is, no royalties are levied. If the mine makes little or no profit, the mineral resource would be depleted and the public would get nothing at all.
This might be an extreme example, I agree, though there are plenty of very marginal mines around, especially in things like limestone, gypsum, mineral sands, bauxite, copper, gold, lead, zinc….you name it, there are always mines that don’t make much money.
The point remains that royalties have to be considered independently from tax. A royalty is the price paid for the right to access an irreplaceable resource. The owners of the resource can charge as much as they like for it. The resource belongs to the (public) owners and others cannot use it without being prepared to pay for the opportunity. Whether the operator can make a profit is for them to figure out. If the operator makes a profit, like every other business they will pay tax. So it has been for hundreds of years and so it will remain, I expect.
[The level of emotional attachment to the MRRT and CO2 Tax/ETS is amusing.
]
Almost as amusing as your almost total ignorance in relation to all aspects if them beyond empty talking points. Hilarious.
bemused@1627
59? 59?
As you say, 79 looks nearer the mark. I guessed 75 when I saw one of his photos. He must have had a hard life.
[My current guess is that when the MRRT is repealed (well, partially repealed anyway) the ALP will consider the MRRT dead and move on and won’t be raising it again anytime soon. There will be no immediate point anyway – the mining boom has likely peaked and the era of “super profits” will likely pass shortly anyway.]
It may be that even WA would be prepared to reform the royalty system if it meant that horizontal fiscal equalisation and the GST were also in the mix. But at the moment, royalty reform is probably contrary to the interests of both the Commonwealth and, for different reasons, all of the States.
Royalties are collected by WA, NSW and QLD and accrue via the States Grants mechanism elsewhere. If these revenues were retained by those who collected them, the Commonwealth would have to make up the losses felt, especially in SA and Tasmania.
It may be that a reform of the Royalty system – so that more Royalties were being collected either for or on behalf the Commonwealth and distributed among all the states – would obviate any need to increase the GST. In this case we would very soon see even the LNP arguing in favour of resource rent taxes.
This needs so be turned into a win-win-win deal: better for the States, better for the Commonwealth and better for taxpayers. Is it possible?…Maybe….!
CC
[The level of emotional attachment to the MRRT and CO2 Tax/ETS is amusing.]
Some of us have an emotional attachment to the future. Weird, I know.
The MRRT?
It really is such a non issue.
It does not raise enough revenue to harm the mining industry in any way and when it does, the big mining companies that contribute more than 90% towards it are happy to pay it.
It is definitely NOT the destruction of the mining industry as the alarmist and opportunists (the Liberals)would wish you to believe.
The carbon tax (given that it converts to an ETS), the mining tax, boats, the stupidity of it all such a YAWN.
Still nothing from Schnappi, hasn’t posted since 21st March only those unfollowers stats. Trouble is don’t know his name so am completely lost at what to do, as I am very worried about him.
WA Labors poor support for Carbon pricing and MRRT is one big factor in their poor performance in the last three elections (State, Federal and Senate rerun)
[1828
DisplayName
The level of emotional attachment to the MRRT and CO2 Tax/ETS is amusing.]
The ETS is an investment policy and is nothing to sneer at. We can invest to change the energy generation mix. We should do it. One day we will do it.
The longer we postpone these investments, the greater will be the losses that accrue for investment failure.
The economics are very simple, even if the politics are not.
[WA Labors poor support for Carbon pricing and MRRT is one big factor in their poor performance in the last three elections (State, Federal and Senate rerun)]
Really? And what is the Libs excuse for their poor performance in both the Senate replay and SA election?
mari
Maybe Schnappi is busy attending to other matters than to make comments here at PB?
LOL
Not even the Greens call it a carbon tax anymore. Although it was hailed as Milne’s baby when it was first legislated.
Centre 1834
I hope you are right,I am talking abouut twitter not PB, where he posted a lot. He has never before not answered tweets,DMs plus emails. He is 78 and lives alone. Other people have tried to contact him also and nothing
[1831
Roger Miller
WA Labors poor support for Carbon pricing and MRRT is one big factor in their poor performance in the last three elections (State, Federal and Senate rerun)]
The dysfunction inside the ALP in relation to these and other policy issues is certainly a factor. From the word go, the ALP has mishandled their policies. Issues that really could have been vote-builders for Labor have become fertile ground for the LNP, who have used them to great effect to displace Labor from power.
ALP is a basketcase.
It’s an horrific situation at present which sees the nutjob conservatives governing with no real opposition threat.
hmmm
mari, now you have got us concerned 😐 let’s hope he’s OK!
I think Bill Shorten’s mother has passed away.
Hi Mari (and William)
Re Schnappi
This might sound a bit outlandish, but could his service provider be contacted via William (I assume that is known) and the police be asked to make contact.
Maybe? Any ideas anyone.
@Leroy_Lynch: Nightclub-baron son of cartoonist Larry Pickering charged with supplying cocaine to girls as young as 16 http://t.co/D7a4hkDJOm #auslaw
In W A it not correct to say the ALP has won a senate seat
….we will have to wait for Pratt to see if she can pull it off…the seat won by Bullock is actually a win for the DLP
…..Bullock being a friend of Santamaria…who as we all know was so admired by Abbott that he dubbed him the greatest Australian political figure(as would say Bullock I am sure)
[The longer we postpone these investments, the greater will be the losses that accrue for investment failure. ]
Having spoken directly to several people who are responsible for these types investment decisions, postponement of the inevitable is the only thing they are considering.
There will not be another large coal-fired power plant built in Australia. Several large coal-fired plant operators are maintaining operations almost exclusively for a payment for closure.
There will be some gas-fired generation, but mainly peaking plants. Already some CC gas plants have already found it more profitable to sell their contracted gas supplies on to LNG exporters.
But large-scale renewables will not make great leaps forward while there is over capacity, and over-capacity problems won’t be corrected while the c-f plants are hanging on for closure payments. If an ETS were known to be a permanent feature of the electricity market, then the c-f generators may well have decided to get out by now.
@bkjabour: Julia Gillard has reviewed first episode of season 4 Game of Thrones http://t.co/cl0U9gBr7g
And because we all need to stop and reflect sometimes:
Todd Terje’s cover of Robert Palmer’s “Johnny and Mary,” sung by Bryan Ferry
@oliverlaughland: Immigration department accused of intimidating refugee advocate http://t.co/6yPJujqoux via @guardianaus
“@hughriminton: Big news day: Robert Hughes screams as found guilty of sex crimes; #Schapelle’s fellow inmate says Corby admitted her guilt. @TenNewsSydney”
deb
I heard Doug Cameron talking on Sydney radio after 1pm news saying that Bullock got the nomination because of a handshake deal by two Union Secs.
[It’s an horrific situation at present which sees the nutjob conservatives governing with no real opposition threat.]
I call Bullshit on that one.