BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government’s performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor’s lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor”

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  2. @davidwh/2199

    No it doesn’t.

    If the consumption of imported beef is going down, less demand for ozzie beef, there for less money than predicted.

  4. 2195

    The Greens MLC in Southern Metro, Sue Pennicuik is the party whip and so has lots of procedural issues and bills and amendments to deal with and thus has a lower profile in the media. The Legislative Council has a few ministers in it, like for example Matthew Guy. There are also committees that scrutinise bills. The Legislative Council is getting less publicity this term because it has a government majority at the moment and so it is not vetoing government bills.

    Parties often assign MLCs to target their resources to Assembly seats their party does not hold in their region to increase their party`s profile in those seats. My household (also in Southern Metro and is ALP held) has received pamphlets from Gorgie Crozier spruking the government`s “achievements”. The same practice happens with Senators. Do you live in a Liberal held seat?

    David Davis is the other Liberal MLC in Southern Metro.

  6. [The SA ALP won because 2 independents went against the will of the voters in their electorate and either didn’t side with the Libs or sided with the ALP.]
    Wrong again farqface. One Independent supported Labor, the other independent supported no one.

    The Liberals lost the election because they wasted hundreds of thousands trying to defeat the independents instead of winning marginal seats from Labor.

    [The majority of voters wanted a Liberal government]
    Who gives a crap you idiot, that’s never been how governments have been formed in Australia.

    [Whether the seats fell in accordance with the voters will is another matter, but I am talking about the voters will…….and its in the low 20s to mid 30s for the ALP at the moment.]
    And the Liberals in S.A. lost another election you idiot.

  8. 2198

    Janet Rice is the Greens Senator elect for Victoria.

    She will replace Mehmet Tillem who replaced David Feeney when he moved to Batman.

    Don`t forget Steven Conroy, Michel Ronaldson and the incoming Ricky Muir (replacing Kroger).

  15. Thanks Tom yes how could one forget David, the state health minister and yes i knew of Sue but in terms of int he seat i couldn’t name anything they have actually done.

  21. Tom

    Nah that is okay a Senator needs their party supporters to take the opportunity to introduce them to the public.

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