BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government’s performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor’s lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor”

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  1. @MB/2150

    Yes I know, if those sectors are outsourced, what happens to the people who are left without a job? They will need to be retrained or on the dole system.

  2. Everything

    [….but I am talking about the voters will]

    I assume, being a Tory you support this single member electorate system beloved of the cosy two parties. Is designed to often thwart the “voters will”.

    I mean the ALP in Qld got 26% of the vote and 9% of the seats.

    I would have thought that believers in “level playing fields”, “competition” and all the other self-serving Tory slogans would welcome a really competitive electoral system.

    I jest of course.

  3. My aggregate was unmoved by the Morgan but has dropped 0.6 points on the Newspoll. ALP still lead, 50.5%, but that is in all probability not election-winning.

  4. @davidwh/2151

    Did you know Japan just had tax rise from 5% to 8%, which would have wiped any benefit from this deal ?

  5. [mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, April 7, 2014 at 11:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Moddy i for one accepted Howard 1998 win as he won the seat count and the same applies to SA,]

    It is not a matter of a government holding on with >49%- they often do.

    It is a matter of a party winning a majority of voters preferences in 6 of the last 7 elections and only winning government twice!

    [ okay there might be something wrong with how the draw the boundaries but seats like Elder should have fallen]

    The ALP retained Elder, and government, with a dog whistle campaign using the LNP candidates name “Habib” to conjure fear of terrorists. A move most here supported.

    I wonder whether the candidate will 18C the ALP candidate? Would make things interesting around here, thats for sure!

  6. Regarding the FTA with Japan, i have to admit, if it is as promised, it seems a good deal.
    [Tariffs on frozen beef exports will be halved from 38.5 per cent to 19.5 per cent, with deep cuts in the first year, while restrictions on horticultural produce will be almost entirely eliminated.]
    This is an achievement – to get an industrial country to include agriculture in an FTA. This deal, if as claimed, sounds much better than the Howard FTA with the USA.

    The extra value quoted for beef exports is small – agriculture as a whole is only 3% of our GDP. But this may grow over time, especially as Japanese agriculture is not cost competitive. Plus this deal is an important precedent for other countries in the region.

    No wonder Abbott got on the plane. I would not pretend this is his idea, but it is an achievement.

  7. [swamprat
    Posted Monday, April 7, 2014 at 11:22 pm | PERMALINK

    ….but I am talking about the voters will

    I assume, being a Tory you support this single member electorate system beloved of the cosy two parties. Is designed to often thwart the “voters will”.]

    I think the voters will was well and truly realised in the Qld state election!

    now don’t you worry about that my little chooks…… as they would say

    [I mean the ALP in Qld got 26% of the vote and 9% of the seats.]

    9% of the seats or 9 seats?

    LOL 🙂

  8. Socrates there is no doubt about that. The key issue people are missing here is the improvement in Australian competitiveness for high quality beef into Japan relative to our competitors in North and South America.

  9. 1260

    7 out of 89 seats so 7.87%.

    Queensland needs PR. The LNP would still have a majority but it would be narrow.

    (1) It is unlawful for a person to do an act, otherwise than in private, if:

    (a) the act is reasonably likely, in all the circumstances, to offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate another person or a group of people; and

    (b) the act is done because of the race, colour or national or ethnic origin of the other person or of some or all of the people in the group.]

    Habib is a person
    Habib was offended
    The act was done because of race

  11. Zoidlord an change in the Japanese GST rate hits all beef exporting countries equally. This FTA improves Australia’s relative competition as compared to those other exporting countries. Also I think you will find the supply/demand for high quality beef in Japan is relatively in-elastic.

  12. William was right with his turnout predictions it would seem.

    [Voters in the regional seat of Durack have so far proved apathetic in the re-run West Australian Senate election, with a turnout of less than 62 per cent.

    But with 1.4 million people registered to vote in WA, the overall turnout is still estimated to reach more than 85 per cent based on the number of enrolments, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) says.]

    Ain’t never doubting that man again.

  13. Tom

    [7 out of 89 seats so 7.87%.]

    I thought they had 8 seats. My apologies but it does not change the point.

    I would hope the ALP in Qld will support PR when they next get back but I suppose they never will.

  14. Davidwh

    Again I must agree. Of course, someone must now stand over our beef producers and make sure not one single idiot uses too much insecticide etc in a paddock. The Japanese are sticklers for quality. But if both sides meet their end of the bargain it will suit both countries. With the demise of our car industry there is little left to really argue about.

    This comment is also important.
    [The deal will free up exports of dairy, beef, wine, and a range of services, while also making Japanese cars, cameras, televisions and other high-tech goods cheaper in Australia.]

    The real benefit to us is getting the added value food products like wine and dairy into Japan, not just beef. Those could be worth big money, because our quality for each is excellent. Plus they employ far more people than the cattle industry.

  15. After a few years here in Victoria i can’t put a finger on anything my five upper house MPs have done.

    I can’t even name them and if i a political animal can’t name them i suspect most wouldn’t have a clue if they fell over them in the street.

  16. [2149….zoidlord]

    This is more about politics more than trade and economics. Abbott is letting the world know he will sign anything. The Indonesian, Korean and Japan deals are close to meaningless. He wants to sign a deal with China too, who must be able to see that Abbott is a push-over but has remarkably little to offer beyond minerals, energy and rural products.

    Mutual (two-way) investment liberalisation would be attractive to China, but this will probably be much too hard for Abbott for political reasons (or, as they say in Japan, because of its cultural significance…)

  17. Wasn’t particularly thrilled with the Duchess of Cambridge showing up in full red double buttoned regalia militia outfit.

    Maybe NZ are up for that.

    Hope she doesn’t do it here.

    Saving grace, the bare bottomed group (Vote right or left) were far more glam.

  18. You appear to be clutching at straws zoidy!

    It is no surprise that Australian business struggled under the ALP government, but now that we have a Liberal government, Australia is open for business again!

    :devil: *

    *PS: its a joke guys, lighten up!

  19. 2172

    I was going on the general election percentages, like the primary vote figures you provided. Got to compare like with like.

  20. Briefly

    Sorry I can’t agree re the Japan deal being economically meaningless. Japan is our second largest trading partner. Most of what they make cheaply we no longer make, so we have little to lose.

    On reduced car and consumer good prices alone, there will be a downward pressure on inflation.

  21. Now who is the one clutching at straws by continuing to blame ALP?

    “The supply volume (volume by year, source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries) of the beef market reached a record high of 1,103,000 tons (of this 738,000 tons is imported) in fiscal 2000. But in fiscal 2001, the number dropped drastically to 937,000 tons (608,000 tons imported) because of the BSE in Japan. BSE not only influenced domestic beef consumption, but also the consumption of imported beef. It clearly shows that import volume made a steep drop.”

    – 2013/08/23


  22. [mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, April 7, 2014 at 11:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Moddy if you were referring to my comment we only have five state upper house MP’s.]

    Oh, I see. I thought you meant the Federal Senators from Victoria.

    I reckon 99% of Australians couldn’t name 3 Senators.

  23. Zoidlord
    [Demand for Ozzie beef is going down.]
    It is a fair bet that will change if a current 38% tariff is being largely removed.

    If Labor wants to have an angle on this, point out that six out of the seven years of negotiations were under Labor, starting under Rudd.

  24. Parlamaid na-h-Alba (Scottish Parliament) uses the Additional Member System.

    73 constituencies and 55 list MSPs = 128 MSPs:
    Current Parliament:
    SNP 65
    S Lab 38
    S Cons & Unionist 15
    S Lib Dems 5
    S Greens 2
    Ind 2
    No party 1

    Seems a good system!!!!

  25. Zoidlord Aussie beef exports have always fluctuated for many reasons but predominately due to the relative competitive pricing between us and the other major exporting countries. While I am no longer in the industry I can make a pretty educated guess that the high AUD/USD in recent years has put us at a disadvantage against US exports. I don’t see that stat changes the benefit Aussie beef exporters will get from this FTA.

  26. Re Beef sales

    Stupid Julie Bishop has lost us $200 million with the cancelleation of a large Russian order
    She should have shut up about the Crimea
    The Jap deal will only cover that gap

  27. 2186

    Victoria, like the other states, has 12 Senators. They are usually elected in 6s but there are 12 of them.

  28. Lots of good reasons to oppose Abbott, including the appalling attempt to legitimise bigotry. But let us not dredge up ten year old trade stats to try to argue the FTA is bad. If it was so bad, why did Labor pursue it for six of those seven years??

    Night all.

  29. Don’t worry PollBludgerglasshalfemptyroonies.

    No doubt there will be some bad economic news to lift your spirits soon!

    Good night 😉

  30. Tom

    I believe Southern Metro

    I know John Lenders is retiring and was a good state treasurer

    Andrea Coote is also retiring

    the other three are non events never seen in the local media or anything.

    They seem to spend on of their time going to various party functions and not much else.

  31. Moddy i can name about half

    Kim Carr ALP
    Richard Di Green
    Jacinta Collins ALP
    Mitch Fifield Liberal
    Helen Kroger defeated Liberal
    John Madigan DLP

    Thats off the top of my head

  32. Zoidlord you are still missing the key point. The FTA improves our competitive position regardless of the Japanese domestic factors.

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