BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government’s performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor’s lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor”

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  1. Perhaps Gillard should have spent more time educating herself about foreign affairs and trade and less time on GOT? :devil:

  2. Zoidy 1790

    Is there really a difference between

    “I am against outsourcing but not anti-outsourcing”

    If anything that sounds contradictory only because i thought from your many comments that you were against outsourcing.

    There is nothing wrong with holding a view and never had an issue with you holding such a view so i wasn’t labelling you.

  3. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, April 7, 2014 at 10:30 pm | PERMALINK
    How about many of the studies posted here saying it’s man made?]

    Cars are man made????

    Yes, I know.

  4. @MB/2106

    Nope, it all depends on how it’s done, I know where you going with this….

    Population, is man made, making cars and other objects.

    Getting materials out of the ground is man made.

    Yes, I know where you going with this…

  5. Lateline:

    Beef :$2.8 Billion benefit to Australia
    Fruit and Veges and seafood and wine all benefit
    Rice: tariffs remain due to cultural significance for Japan

    Australian consumers will gain with cheaper white goods, electronics and cars.

  6. So an oz ship and a chinese ship, 600 kms apart, have detected a black box pinging, whose usual range is 1.6km.

    This will only fuel the conspiracy theories..

  7. [Hmmm watching Tone on Lateline. Something strange about his eyelids.
    Any ideas what he has done to them.]
    You is probably just really tired from lying so much.

  8. [Rice: tariffs remain due to cultural significance for Japan]

    …or, stated another way, tariffs remain because they protect the incomes of the Japanese peasantry, who in turn will continue to fund the political machinery that sustains LDP power…

  9. With an unpopular government and an unpopular (perhaps un-re-electable) leader and messages of a tough budget and cuts, the Opposition primary is in the low 30s.

    The vote in SA in the mid 30s.

    The vote in WA in the low 20s.

    The vote in Tas in the mid 20s.


  10. ML I knew it was over 20 years I was just being cheeky.

    The benefit to the beef industry can’t be overstated. Japan is a key market for high quality beef with stiff competition from other countries. Any assistance with import duties and quotas will be very good for the industry.

  11. Zoidy

    Not sure i follow

    An example of good outsourcing, if a manufacturing fir wants to design a new product but doesn’t have any design capability so it hires a design firm for a period of time to help design the new product.

  12. Ye… Predictable newspoll. Will calm the LnP backbench, take the wind out of any Turnbull move. Probably not welcomed by the VIC State LNP desperate to distance themselves from the fed LNP

  13. Morgan was up for the Libs as well. Basically we are probably ranging around 50/50 with neither of the majors held in good regard. It’s a pretty dim period we are going through.

  14. Some yank on lateline polishing the Abbott Gov. Over egging IMHO. And in the process slagging off the Malaysian and Chinese govs. I hope the abbott gov doesn’t fall for this hubris, but they probably will.

  15. [With an unpopular government and an unpopular (perhaps un-re-electable) leader and messages of a tough budget and cuts, the Opposition primary is in the low 30s.

    The vote in SA in the mid 30s.]
    The Labor government in S.A. was re-elected you moron. The first time ever an Labor government in S.A. has been re-elected to a 4th term.

  16. [2124

    Is it me or is $2.8 billion over 2 decades like only $140 million a year?]

    Annual trade amounted to $69.2 billion last year and has been falling. Australia has a substantial trade surplus with Japan – around $25 billion.

    The agreement is obviously going to make almost no difference to the big picture.


    Japan was Australia’s second-largest trading partner in 2012-13. Japan is Australia’s second-largest export market, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Two-way goods and services trade between Australia and Japan was valued at $69.2 billion, an 8.8 per cent decrease on 2011-12. Goods exports to Japan in 2012-13 decreased by 9.1 per cent to $46.5 billion, representing approximately 18.8 per cent of Australia’s total exports.

    In 2012-3, Australia’s major exports to Japan included coal ($13.7 billion), iron ore ($8.6 billion), copper ores and concentrates ($1.6 billion) and beef ($1.4 billion). Japan was Australia’s largest export market for beef, fish, fruit juice, animal feed, copper ores and concentrates, coal, liquefied propane and butane, aluminium, transmission shafts, dairy products and natural gas.

    On the other side of the trade ledger, in 2012-13, Japan was Australia’s third-largest source of imports. Major imports from Japan included passenger vehicles ($6.8 billion), refined petroleum ($2 billion), goods vehicles ($1.3 billion), and rubber tyres, treads and tubes ($0.7 billion).

    Total bilateral trade in services in 2012-13 was valued at about $4.4 billion, mostly in the tourism, transport and education sectors. Services exports were worth $2.1 billion and services imports were valued at $2.3 billion.]

  17. And looking at the SA result that is an impressive win for the ALP, The Liberals can sulk about the boundaries but they failed to win seats that they should have won in order to win government.

    Weatherall deserves a lot of phrase

  18. The LNP vision for Australia: that we have the most” efficient” farm and mine workers in the world so that global mining and agro-businesses make lots of un-taxed super profits.

    Is that it, in a nutshell?

    In one of their FTA’s it will probably be illegal for anything to be made in Australia.

  19. The SA ALP won because 2 independents went against the will of the voters in their electorate and either didn’t side with the Libs or sided with the ALP.

    The majority of voters wanted a Liberal government by a margin just shy of the Federal landslide (90 to 55 seat) result.

    Whether the seats fell in accordance with the voters will is another matter, but I am talking about the voters will…….and its in the low 20s to mid 30s for the ALP at the moment.

    That aint good.

  20. Make of this what you will on the yank guy on Lateline …

    On 25 November 2013, Campbell was appointed an Honorary Officer of the Order of Australia (AO) For service to strengthening bilateral relations between Australia and the United States of America.[3] On 31 December 2013, Campbell was appointed an honorary Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit for services to New Zealand-United States relations.[4]

    Clearly a much loved Yank in Oz and NZ

  21. Moddy i for one accepted Howard 1998 win as he won the seat count and the same applies to SA, okay there might be something wrong with how the draw the boundaries but seats like Elder should have fallen

  22. @briefly/2142

    Indeed, and I’m expecting that Japan’s economy isn’t going to lift on the bases of this deal either.

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