The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.
UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.
UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.
Yep it’s a worry.
Oh, as you were then. Artie was only talking to a journo after all.
[Kate McClymont @Kate_McClymont ·32s
Arty said he “mischaracterised” to journo Linton Besser that Nicky DG held shares for him in AWH as a ” gentleman’s agreement. ” #icac]
sprocket
He’s cutting it a bit fine now, isn’t he?
“@Kate_McClymont: Thank god are having a lunch break. Scribes finds are aching and Arfur must be busting. he has consumed about 3 litres in the box #icac”
Rumour …. Following ICAC revelations. ….Abbott to close RC into unions before Liberal Corporate cronies entangled……
Rex
With a hotch potch of any individual who thinks he can run the country or State?
[lmao. Right, so you think the Libs have a case?
]
I had hope the subtle expression I used including the word bollocks might have given a gentle hint to the mind with advanced analytical power that I think it is a case lacking entirely in merit.
But there at least is a logical argument. There is no logical argument for preventing unions from an action that is perfectly legal for everyone else.
Lying at ICAC is the one thing that most people get “done” for, and presumably the whole point of the “I don’t recall” defense – to avoid getting caught being not entirely truthful.
Maybe in this case there is some sophistry that since he relinquished his rights to the shares he was entitled to he never technically owned shares? Surely he wouldn’t have gone through all that effort of not recalling all that shit to come a cropper on this obvious stuff…
[
Obviously Sinodinos wasn’t as smart as I though he was. Pity but such is life.
And he was ‘suppose’ to be THE smart one in abbott’s government. ]
Sadly, he is.
Bludger track has libs up 6 on week prior?
Stepping back from the bubble of the ICAC, it is obviously totally implausible that a person who is a senior member of two large and supposedly unconnected organisations would have no memory of significant sums of money moving from one to the other within the past few years.
Libs may be lucky the Senate by election is being held in NSW this weekend
WWP – there is a purist argument that you are making and there is a practical argument about how do we prevent obvious dysfunction and abuse of our economy.
You can sit on your purist high horse all you like, but at the end of the day governments have resorted to practical measures to stop abuses by unions.
It may be messy in a theoretical “all organizations should be equal before the law” sense, but it has a real basis in Australian IR history.
You can dismiss that if you like, but it doesn’t change reality or history.
MTBW
what, like Jaymes Diaz ? 😉
Yet another wacky theory
[Police are investigating whether the food served on board the missing Malaysian airliner was poisoned.]
http://www.smh.com.au/world/police-investigate-possible-poisoning-of-food-on-missing-plane-20140403-zqq33.html#ixzz2xmhzURlB
Jackol
[Lying at ICAC is the one thing that most people get “done” for..]
Only thing so far.
Angela D’Amore is the most recent example and there are not that many anyway.
But the last 18 months involves much larger scale stuff – the notion this is going to be the end of it for each and every one so far exposed in that period is speculative.
David
I suspect Sinodinos had a variant of midlife crisis – new wife, new friends, fast cars etc.
He probably WAS honest, smart and clever for a long time but the new life beckoned and he was suckered.
Re: Bludgertrack – that’s a sharp drop in Greens support, I wonder what that is about? I didn’t think the Greens had been particularly noteworthy of late for good or ill.
The Greens seem to be developing a sawtooth pattern – slowly ramping up over several months to see a sharp drop.
[
Police are investigating whether the food served on board the missing Malaysian airliner was poisoned.
]
That’s the plot for the film Flying High! Except, in the film they manage to land it.
[The Greens seem to be developing a sawtooth pattern – slowly ramping up over several months to see a sharp drop.]
Maybe just the relatively small sample size of people who would vote Green?
Presumably the smaller the party, the ‘noisier’ the data about where exactly their vote is?
Rex
Yep! And look how far he got 😡
dtt #1917
too late, Obeid has already claimed that excuse
I brlieve Sinodonis has been married for 14 years. Hardly a new wife
Map of train lines in Melbourne – proposed, former, some never built.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Melbrail_former_present_proposed.svg
PB –
I’m not sure this follows – certainly in terms of sampling error it is my understanding that the quoted MOEs are for values near 50%, and the MOE is actually lower for more extreme variables, although presumably when the variable you are measuring gets down to the coarseness of your sampling then I would imagine you would see a lot of noise there.
Plus, if it were actual “noise”, the plotted chart would look noisy – it doesn’t, it’s nice and smooth after Bludgertrack’s filtering/averaging effects.
WA Lib candidate on 24 says Carbon & Mining taxes are at forefront of WA peeps’ minds re cost of living. Says she has consulted thousands of people. Sure, sure.
bludgers may like to note the following….
Tourism Australia intend to use Rottnest Island to promote Australia as a destination for culinary/dining tourism. Rottnest is Australia’s largest unmarked grave, containing the remains of about 400 aboriginals who died in custody on the island while it was used as an Aboriginal prison.
The prison was the scene of appalling brutality, including summary execution for about 100 years. The cells of former prison, where prisoners were housed with less than 1 square metre per person, are now offered as “luxury” tourist villas.
The island is owned by the State, who persistently refuse to properly mark, protect or record these deaths.
I have tweeted @TourismAus. You like to repeat…
briefly @briefly1 38s
@TourismAus Rottnest – Australia’s largest unmarked grave to be promoted as pleasure park – adding the macabre to shameful neglect.
WA Lib candidate on 24 says Carbon & Mining taxes are at forefront of WA peeps’ minds re cost of living. Says she has consulted thousands of people. Sure, sure.
Carbon price added about 0.9% to the CPI, full compensated for low and middle income earners. The interviewer should have pointed that out. The interviewer should also ask “by what percentage has the mining tax increased the CPI? What items have increased in price? By how much?” Failure to answer means the candidate is talking crap.
Victoria
The issue is how long had he been married when he started to join the murky high flyers. it looks more like 5-6 years (perhaps less)
Guy Rundle at Crikey is canvassing the idea of progressive unions breaking away from a conservative ALP.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/04/03/rundle-why-the-union-movement-should-divorce-the-alp/
[The Labor-union separation push is coming from the party’s pro-market forces ….
They’re a strange mob, Labor’s gung-ho marketistas…
The public remains far more collective, nationalist, protectionist, and statist than the head members of both major parties — who share a mutual sympathy at the stupidity of their own supporters in rejecting neoliberalism….
The great advantage of such a move [progressive unions running candidates in some electorates] would be that it would cement a larger progressive electoral vote bloc than the Greens can currently manage, as it would finally draw away another tranche of Labor stalwarts who, for class and cultural reasons, can’t bring themselves to support the Greens
Above all, it would expose how threadbare is the support for Labor’s market fundamentalists, a tiny insider elite parasitic on a host party.]
Sir Mad Cyril @ 1919
[Police are investigating whether the food served on board the missing Malaysian airliner was poisoned.
That’s the plot for the film Flying High! Except, in the film they manage to land it.]
The question is though, who had fish for dinner ? 🙂
@smh: H&M ‘already looking at Sydney’, may open six Australian stores http://t.co/RUKR4lEmoU
Peter of M 1931
[The question is though, who had fish for dinner ?]
Surely you cant be serious…..
It was the salmon mousse in the Meaning of Life.
But, I didn’t eat the mousse!
cc
[But, I didn’t eat the mousse!]
Evidently that line was unscripted.
The Rodent and friend
https://twitter.com/ColouredView/status/451513084880748544/photo/1/large
ausdavo@1893
What I can’t figure out with regard to the missing plane is the role of the Maldives.
Several people saw a jet flying low over one of the islands, which looked rather like a malaysian airlines plane. Same basic colour, similar stripes. It wasn’t an illusion, they heard it clearly and saw it clearly enough to see one of the doors.
Five or more days ago, a fire suppression sphere washes up on a Maldives beach, the locals think it is a bomb. Call the cops. Finally identified as a fire suppression sphere from a 7X7 series airplane. So it could be from the plane. If we had all the info on the id plates, we could establish what sort of plane it is from, maybe even which plane.
Then nothing.
Just how many fire suppression spheres from a 777 or similar are there floating in the Indian Ocean?
I am beginning to drift into the tin foil hat conspiracy theory brigade. Who is covering up what?
Simon Katich 😀
Well, if no-one else will finish it….
Yes, I am serious, and dont call me Shirley.
dtt
It appears he was married for 9 years when he joined AWH. As i said, hardly a newly wed
I would be a bit nervous in a plane with Kareem Abdul Jabaar as the co-pilot
@fredex/1930
Maybe Crikey can tell Liberals to diverse it’s corporate membership? Then it can tell what Labor may or may not do.
Did artie accept Doug Cameron’s advice that he shouldn’t take the offer of immunity regarding any evidence he gave?
On MH370 – the only conclusion that I can come to is that fundamentally no one has a clue where it might have come down.
The satellite information is clearly very fuzzy – starting with the north/south tracks, and then roughly confirming it must have been the south track. But when they started off confidently predicting it was in a certain area because it travelled a certain distance at a certain altitude with a certain amount of fuel … now it turns out they don’t really have any idea of what altitude it was flying at or at what speed so they can’t sensibly calculate how far the fuel might have taken the plane … they’ve got areas to search that cover large portions of the Earth’s surface.
The satellite pictures of stuff in the ocean may well have been stuff in the ocean, but there is apparently a lot of stuff to find in the ocean, so the satellite pictures that seemed to be adding up to a convincing case seem to now be of no evidential value whatsoever.
To my mind they are going through the motions of searching, but have no idea if they’re searching in even roughly the right location.
The only hope is that some lucky find is made by pure chance stumbled across by someone somewhere that is definitively from the plane, and that is getting more and more unlikely to yield useful information the longer it takes.
I think there is a very high chance that this plane is not going to be found in any meaningful period of time (like our lifetimes). It can be one of Boerwar’s cherished mysteries.
The interesting question is how long do they keep searching until they decide the effort is not justified?
And of course any intensive search effort runs the risk of mishap occurring to the searching planes or ships … what ends up being a justifiable price to pay to answer peoples’ questions?
Victoria
He was married in 2000 and joined AWH in 2008. Not really a new wed I agree but it sometimes takes a few years to turn someone to the dark side.
Look the guy is clearly a corrupt sleazy scumbag. The issue is that as a young man he was regarded as honest. (I doubt this would have been said of Obeid at 17)
ALL I am trying to say is that marriage may have been the trigger for a personality or ethics shift.
Now I have seen it happen to people I know – new partner, new ethics – usually for men in their late 40s early 50s.
While on the grotesque, I’ve written (again) to the Commissioner for Human Rights, Tim Wilson…as follows:
[Talking of Freedom – Tourism Australia & Rottnest Island
Hi Tim,
The history of Rottnest Island is an instance where completely insufficient speech is exercised. From 1838 until 1904, Rottnest was used as a prison for WA’s aboriginal prisoners. It is Australia’s largest unmarked grave, the place of repose for about 400 aboriginal men who died in custody as result of their grave mistreatment, including the summary, arbitrary use of both corporal and capital punishment. This is a pre-eminent example of the abuse of official power.
Tourism Australia have announced they intend to use Rottnest as a promotional site for a new ad campaign, theming Australia as a destination for fine dining. Tourism Australia are on to a good idea, but it is truly bizarre to use Rottnest, for nearly 70 years the scene of outrageous abuses of imprisoned men. The cells of the former prison, where prisoners were housed with less than 1 square metre per person, are now offered as “luxury” tourist villas. Many of the original facilities on the Island were built using the forced labour of those prisoners. Rottnest is a part of our own gulag.
The island is owned by the State, who persistently refuse to properly mark, protect or post an official record these deaths.
As a Commissioner with a declared interest in freedom of speech and freedom from arbitrary detention, perhaps this is something you may wish to take up.
Best regards,
briefly]
I invite Bludgers to write in similar terms to anyone they think may be interested…thanks.
It took 66 years to find HMAS Sydney.
Artie back in the dock after a pleasant lunch
zoidlord
Well its Guy Rundle, rather than Crikey as such although obviously there’s a link.
Its not a new idea.
Some of the unions have ‘flirted’ with the Greens in the past, maybe still do, presumably to get a more unionist input with them.
Some money and general support has flowed to the Greens from union sources.
But if I understand Rundle correctly he is suggesting a 3rd alternative or ‘way’ to both ALP marketeers and Greens.
Rundle describes it as a process that is already happening in part, as in
[ “The campaign to separate Labor from the unions is in full swing”]
with the important observation that the impetus is coming from within the ALP via
[“The Labor-union separation push is coming from the party’s pro-market forces”]
and is being supported by ‘The Australian”s anti-union campaign.
So, my understanding, is that Rundle suggests that an option for progressive non free market types in the ALP is to accept that they are not wanted there and to strike out on their own – straregically and tactically.
In doing so they may attract Greens supporters who migrated there from the ALP because they were dissatisfied with the growing move to the right of the ALP in recent years.