Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)

The first Galaxy poll since the federal election finds nothing in it, while Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns suggest the swing is weakest in the state where voters head to the polls on Saturday.

The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.

UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,028 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)”

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  1. I’ll be happy if Saturday give 2 ALP and Ludlam. Would love to see the Fibs lose one of their seats but dont think it will happen. 🙁

  3. 1

    I believe there is an outside chance of 2 ALP, 2 Liberal, 1 Green and 1 HEMP. That would be a nightmare for the government.

  4. 3 comments from looking at the Oz wide Newspoll figures.

    1.The Greens are the big winners, a 3.3% increase since the election, then the ALP with a gain of 2.7% and, obviously a drop of 5.6% for the COALition.

    2.Both the Greens and the ALP have done well outside the capital cities relative to the COALItion. The ALP are up 4.4% in ‘non-capitals’ and the Greens up 1.9%.

    3.Whilst the COALition vote has declined in all age brackets both the ALP and Greens are up in all age brackets, the Greens mainly in the youngest set and the ALP mainly in the middle bracket.

  5. And #4 –
    .The ALP has a huge 7% increase with males and the COALition a huge drop of 8%
    .No change for the ALP with females but the COALition has lost 4%
    .The Greens have picked up in both – males by 2.8% and females by 2.9%

    Overall not a good set of numbers [1-4 above] for the COALition, pretty good for the ALP and even better for the Greens.

  6. @ Tom 3

    I think more likely than that is 2 ALP, 2 Liberal, 1 Green and 1 Palmer (I strongly doubt both the Greens and HEMP will get up)… though I wonder what effect the weekend’s West Australian had on his polling numbers over here – the editorial fairly laid into him right there on the front page.

  9. Apropos of nothing much, but I’m off in an hour or two to Costa Rica and other places for a few weeks.

    Look forward to a good WA Senate result.

  10. Greens are likely to be overstated (as always) and PUP probably a understated. PUP will blitz advertising in the end and may pick up a point or two from the other three. The problem with a survey covering 3 months is that it is the average over the time. A 30% overall could mean a 40% for 2 months and 10% in the current month. I suspect campaigning focussing on the two taxes and boats will favour parties on the right compared to the three month average

    6 x 14.3% get a seat and someone misses out holding the final 14%. Given these figures, it seems likely that the Libs will get 3 even if they need a few votes from the micros. More likely they will have a significant % left over that will flow to PUP before Greens and Labor. I suspect Greens are going down.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    ICAC is smoking them out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-players-fall-out-over-bush-property-20140330-35rxe.html
    Don’t listen, they’re only scientists!
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-could-make-humans-extinct-warns-health-expert-20140330-35rus.html
    This suggestion will never fly. It has the words “more equitable” in it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/childcare-funding-needs-major-overhaul-say-researchers-20140330-35rtu.html
    Shorten’s opposition to Brandis’s racial vilification laws is becoming more strident.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/changes-to-racial-vilification-laws-a-colossal-mistake-shorten-20140330-35reg.html
    For a state government these are lousy sorts of stories that no spin can fix.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/badly-injured-man-angry-at-twohour-wait-for-ambulance-20140330-35rul.html
    Amanda Vanstone has some very good points on Abbott’s introduction of Knights and Dames.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-tony-abbotts-royal-finger-on-knights-and-dames-is-wrong-20140329-zqog7.html
    Some dire warnings from Ross Giittins.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/less-fancy-financial-footwork-please-20140330-35rrg.html

  12. ABC News Breakfast are reporting a Newspoll that is “bad news” for Labor, speaking of a drop in support for both Labor and the Greens.

    I assume they mean this Newspoll Quarterly, although they seem to not understand the difference.

    To channel Confessions, we are very poorly served by the media in this country …

  13. Section 2 . . .

    David Pope continues on ridiculing Abbott’s Knights and Dames decree. And look at the statue in the background.

    Alan Moir on NSW politics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    John Spooner on federal/state funding.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html
    And Spooner on Abbott’s economic tactics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html
    David Rowe takes us to the Social Security shopfront.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  14. LOL. The one and only thing I like about Amanda Vanstone is she’s a strident republican.

    It’s nice to know there’s an issue that can smoke out an article from her that isn’t entirely full of Tony Turd Polishing.

  15. [ABC News Breakfast are reporting a Newspoll that is “bad news” for Labor, speaking of a drop in support for both Labor and the Greens.]

    … and now they just had news break where they didn’t mention it.

    I think someone might have tweeted that they’re a bunch of pillocks …

  18. Good point from Chinda. How can this Galaxy poll be a move away from Labor when there has been no other Galaxy poll since the election and it is 2% better 2pp for Labor than the election result? Unless they are spuriously comparing the Galaxy result to some other recent poll?

  21. Evasive? Moi? says Tony.

    [There is, however, a far more serious issue and that is the decision-making process. Or lack of it. Prime ministers may well deserve a stronger voice in government. The word prime has real meaning. A prime minister on top of his game gives a lot of extra credence to the rest of the government and that brings with it a few privileges. Having a stronger voice is one of those. Flying solo to indulge yourself is not.

    A prime minister who rides roughshod over his cabinet colleagues when there is no security or other imperative to do so is playing a dangerous game. It is a simple game of bluff or chicken. The leader breaks all the rules others are expected to follow because he is betting that the cabinet and partyroom will let him get away with it. Making a leader renege after they have announced some indulgence would be a very expensive exercise for any government. The fight in cabinet would leak, their leader and the team would be damaged. The leader virtually says: ‘‘Suck it up, you bunch of sissies”. He concludes that his view is more important, better, than all of his cabinet and partyroom members. That conclusion rankles with MPs who slogged it out on the hustings and earned the right, even responsibility, to express their views.
    . . .
    Using your authority as prime minister is one thing. Appearing sneaky at the same time is another. This knights and dames issue was raised last year and Abbott appeared to rule it out. In fact he simply ruled out the New Zealand model for reintroducing knights and dames. In hindsight, that now appears to have been deliberately evasive. ]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-tony-abbotts-royal-finger-on-knights-and-dames-is-wrong-20140329-zqog7.html#ixzz2xTnYnNrO

    Amanda is saying that PMs have the right to make decisions without consultation on, say, security matters. But if Tony can show such little judgement on Honours (and lie about it), how much more dangerous will he be on Security.

  22. Lizzie

    Abbott is running a kitchen table cabinet, like Rudd. The difference is that Abbott dines alone. Of course, Tony is not arrogant, as I said yesterday. For Tony, absolute power means absolution.

  24. [The spectre of food poverty continues to cast a shameful shadow across our society. March began with the revelation that a third of councils in England and Wales are now diverting money from public health budgets to support foodbanks; then on the morning of the budget, campaigners delivered a petition of 70,000 names demanding action to address the grim reality of malnutrition and starvation in 21st-century Britain.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/26/organic-food-industry-food-poverty

  26. Worldwide reaction to the Liverpool victory and going top of the English premier league:
    ?t=1258418780

    Even in Tottenham

  27. Lizzie

    Regarding food poverty, I think it is even worse when you consider those who lack access to healthy food. There is a lot of obesity among the poor even when they have enough to eat, because a lot of it is cheap fried takeaway, and they lack fresh fruit and veggies. I think that would be true here as well as in the UK.

  28. Good Morning

    Liking the WA poll results. Less for the Coalition is good news to me. I am with Imacca if the Hemp candidate gets up I will be having a good laugh 🙂

  33. Elder’s latest

    [The bigots’ friend
    Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose

    – Kris Kristofferson, Me and Bobby McGee
    Years from now, George Brandis will be an old man blustering into restaurants with “Don’t you know who I am?”. He will be dining well when somebody approaches him whom he doesn’t recognise, but Brandis will retain too much of the pollie instinct not to tell the person to go away.]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au

  34. ifonly
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 7:01 am | Permalink

    “Greens are likely to be overstated (as always]…”

    I’m curious as to why you say that.

    I checked the last 4 Newspolls prior to the 2013 election and they had the Greens at 9,9,10,9 with 9% at the election [rounded from an actual 8.7%].
    So that is not an overstatement.

    For comparison the same 4 polls had the COALition as 47,47,44,46 with 46% at the election [rounded from an actual 45.6%].
    For the ALP the numbers were 34,37,33,33 with the election at 33.3%.

    As far as Newspoll goes there is not a pre-election ‘overstating’ of the support for the Greens any more than the other 2 parties.

  35. Skynews just reported that according to Newspoll, the support for the Liberals has increased in WA. Is this correct?

  40. victoria

    Pity about Alexander. Brandis would have much better. He could have been patronising to all the titled gents as no one else could. He’s got a big bookcase, y’know.

  41. COALition polling in Newspoll in WA according to quarterly numbers.

    Election ….51.2%
    Oct-Dec ….41%
    Jan-Mar …46.0
    A drop of 5% since the election.

    For comparison:
    ALP: election ..28.8% -> Jan-Mar …29% ie no change
    Greens: election ..9.7% -> Jan-Mar…15% ie 5% plus
    Other: virtually no change.

    Skynews appears to be very wrong.

  43. fredex

    I just saw Skynews state that there has been a 7% drop for support in the ALP in WA since the election in September.
    I am confused!

  44. victoria:

    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 8h
    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Federal 2PP in WA: L/NP 54 (-4.3 from election) ALP 46 (+4.3) #auspol ]

    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 8h
    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Federal Primaries in WA: L/NP 46 (-5.2 from election) ALP 29 (+0.2) GRN 15 (+5.3) Others 10 (-0.3) #auspol]

    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 8h
    The #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly tables: http://bit.ly/1kbg9eA #auspol ]

  48. vic,

    Click on the link to the Australian in William’s narrative above. It shows Labor in WA went from 28.8% at the election, to 36% at the end of Decemeber and 29% for the period January to March.

    So, as William says, there has not been much change overall in WA since the election. However, the media can extract their Labor bashing point by pointing to the recent period which has changed by 7%.

    Overall, the poll is good for Labor as it shows a swing of about 5.5% since the election.

    I’d expect a focus on boats this week as we lead up to the Senate election. Low voter turnout might be an issue. But, who is it to advantage?

  50. The climate do-nothings are preparing their ground well in advance of the latest report by the IPCC by headlining that one author has withdrawn his support. I think he might be the same one who appeared on Q&A. Could be mistaken. There is also an article by Lovelock casting doubt about “certainty”.

    [Environmentalism has “become a religion” and does not pay enough attention to facts, according to James Lovelock.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/30/james-lovelock-environmentalism-religion

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