Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)

The first Galaxy poll since the federal election finds nothing in it, while Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns suggest the swing is weakest in the state where voters head to the polls on Saturday.

The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.

UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,028 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)”

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  1. zoidlord@1943

    Good point. Still waiting for Rundle to pen any criticism of the Liberals that doesn’t spin off into an attack on Labor. Mind you I find his prose a little wafty for my comprehension, I generally tire after 20,000 words.

  2. 948

    We have both greater technology to search and no ongoing major sea war to reduce available resources and create danger of attack, compared to 1941.

  3. [You can sit on your purist high horse all you like, but at the end of the day governments have resorted to practical measures to stop abuses by unions.

    Lol forgive me for wanting good logical policy.

    It is a very simple question – either secondary boycotts are an abuse of power or they are legitimate. If legitimate but were used by unions in combination with illegitimate tactics it is incredibly bad policy to outlaw the legitimate thing perhaps because it is easier to prove than the suspected illegitimate thing (I’m guessing a form of extortion).

    But I don’t have to be a policy purist or have excessively high standards for good policy to know once you accept it is legitimate to ban secondary boycotts in one circumstance you have cut your own legs off when you try to oppose the ban in circumstances you consider it inappropriate. Essentially by prostituting good policy for expedience in relation to unions you have undermined any subsequent objection you might want to make to other situations. ‘But this is different’ you’ll bleat and the libs will say ‘no it is not if anything this is a worse abuse’ and they will be the ones with the logical argument and the policy high ground.

  4. Artie has been practising the excuses over lunch

    [Bridie Jabour ‏@bkjabour ·4 mins
    “I guess you don’t understand how little power the president of the federal Liberal party has,” Sinodinos #Icac Expand Collapse ]

  5. @sprocket_/1955

    If President of the liberal party has little to no power, what is the point of it?

    So many flaws in his argument.

  6. This government is chasing the unions when, according to the RBA, superannuation fees in this country are the third highest in the world (and I bet the highest when you strip out industry funds).
    Yet this govt attacks union “corruption”.
    I hope nobody missed this story by “the great” Michael West in the Herald today, because it is red hot, because it strongly suggests that the retail superannuation industry has captured asic

  7. @sprocket_/1955

    It gave him enough power to line his nest with a $200k-salaried position for 100hrs work a year.

  8. WWP –

    ‘But this is different’ you’ll bleat

    lmao. “you’ll bleat” – excellent dismissal of the arguments.

    either secondary boycotts are an abuse of power or they are legitimate.

    Ok, first of all you are throwing terminology around very sloppily here (kind of as the Libs do when they’re not paying attention).

    What is a “secondary boycott”? In the context of union action it’s fairly clear – the union’s primary action is between the employer and their members. So strike action aimed at improving conditions or wages when taken against the direct employer is “primary”. “Secondary” is when a union strikes or imposes a picket line or other industrial action when something happens that they wish to protest that doesn’t involve the “primary” party – the direct employer.

    Now you are suggesting (as the Libs are) that environmental boycotts are directly equivalent to such secondary boycotting. Perhaps you could outline what the “primary” activity is and how environmental boycotts are “secondary”.

    Essentially by prostituting good policy for expedience in relation to unions you have undermined

    Me, personally? I didn’t set the policy. I said there was a reasonable basis for that policy based on historical context.

    And that historical context is fairly compelling. If there was evidence that environmental boycotts had an unreasonably disrupting effect on our economy then maybe you would have an argument that they should be treated the same. As far as I know no such evidence has ever been proffered. The fact that individual companies might suffer tells us nothing about the systemic impact. The presence of environmental boycotts probably acts solely as a point of competitive difference between companies – some companies will benefit as others lose out. The overall economy is probably minimally effected at best.

    Anyway, once you get back to us on how union secondary boycotts are exactly equivalent to environmental boycotts, and have explained how the disruption and dysfunction from out of control union action in the late 70s early 80s has a parallel in the effect that environmental boycotts have on the economy, then you can be snide about how much I’m “bleating”.

  9. Sinodinos will be a lightening rod in the Senate…unethical tainted vote Abbott cannot accept given Every vote will count. Sin can’t hide up,the back

    He will resign & be replaced before new senate takes it’s place,

  10. So Artie was lobbying Barry O’Farrell to get a deal for AWH, and failed to disclose he was on a $20m potential bonus if it went through. Sounds quite regular to me.

    [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·7 mins
    I made all necessary declarations to BoF etc. He agrees he stood to make up to $20 mill but thought that was not relevant to disclose #icac

    Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·9 mins
    Sinodinis said didn’t mention to O’Farrell or Greg Pearce he had “skin in the game” when lobbying them. They didn’t ask, he said #icac]

  11. Another clean skin Liberal gets an ICAC mention

    2:38pm: Former NSW Liberal Premier Nick Greiner gets a nod at ICAC.
    Australian Water Holdings notes suggest he was willing to support the company by stating publicly that it was set up to be a competitor to Sydney Water.
    Asked if Greiner’s endorsement would have given Australian Water a “political advantage”, Sinodinos says: “Or just a normal advantage”.

    How much was Nick going to get, Gentleman ( thieves) agreement ?

  12. don @ 1938

    Yes I’m of the same opinion. The Malaysian Govt. (and Abbott) bring to mind the old saying – “if you’re going to tell lies you need a good memory”.

    The fact so much that was told is later shown to be false points to a big cover-up.

  13. The Oscar’s Law people are not going to be happy if boycotts of products are outlawed in Australia.

    Oscar’s Law is trying to stop the sale of kittens and puppies in pet-shops as a way of decreasing the appalling activities of puppy-farmers, who cruelly breed bitches and dogs in disgusting conditions, until they die of complications or are killed.

    And go have a look at the pictures of the supporters, what demographic would that be?

    They have over 80,000 followers on Facebook. Many of them see the RSPCA as not effective in this area and have organised around this issue on social media.

    The Liberals are idiots.

    This animal rights movement crosses all political boundaries and those with no political affiliation and has an equivalent in most developed countries.

  14. ex-Lib minister Michael Photios was lobbying for AWH on a $5k per month retainer, with a $1m success fee if the contract got up.

  15. [1961

    So Artie was lobbying Barry O’Farrell to get a deal for AWH, and failed to disclose he was on a $20m potential bonus if it went through. Sounds quite regular to me.]

    The art of siphoning, taken to new levels (or depths) in NSW.

  16. ‘He will resign & be replaced before new senate takes it’s place’

    Sigh…normal 50% discount on argument due to apostrophe misuse not applied due to veracity of said argument.

  17. [The art of siphoning, taken to new levels (or depths) in NSW.]

    It’s definitely depths. The greater the gradient, the faster the flow.

  18. I’m probably a bit slow but in all the talk of Sinodinos and AWH, I don’t have a clue what the supposed AWH business is/was except it had something to do with water and ripping off taxpayers.

    Can somebody help please?

  19. [ He will resign & be replaced before new senate takes it’s place ]

    Maybe. I suspect that unless he gets caught up in the Eight byFive inquiry as well the Fibs will just brazen it out. Remember he appears to be a man in need of a decent income, and he is in a position to know where EVERY-BODIES skeletons are buried. Bit like our boy Troy really, just sober…..

  20. “@stilgherrian: I’ve met Senator Sinodinos, before he was a Senator. We were live on UK radio together. Seemed sharp, recalled many facts.”

  21. [The art of siphoning, taken to new levels (or depths) in NSW.]

    Tip of the iceberg. Why does such groups as AWH exist in the first place (other than to make fat cats fatter and their chums and political mates)?

    Reminds me of the Tarp subcontracting siphoning after Hurricane Katrina. I cant remember who blew the whistle on it; The company that won the job charged the government $130/sq.m., after the subbing, the guys installing the tarps were charging a couple of dollars a sq.m. Tarps supplied by the government.

    But we need fat cats right? They make the world go ’round.

    Makes me want to vomit.

  22. Max Moore-Wilton’s airport leads the pack again:

    [Sydney Airport has again achieved the lowest ranking of the country’s four-biggest airports with passengers concerned about kerbside congestion at both its international and domestic terminals.

    In its annual report on the state of the airports, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission warned that the country’s four largest airports – Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth – will have to invest more if they are to resolve congestion, accommodate future passenger growth and improve service levels.]

  23. guytaur

    It was a bit of sarcasm from Keane. Stephens reckons we are envied by the other countries and our strong performance gives us extra cred.

  24. [ausdavo
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 3:04 pm | Permalink
    don @ 1938

    Yes I’m of the same opinion. The Malaysian Govt. (and Abbott) bring to mind the old saying – “if you’re going to tell lies you need a good memory”.

    The fact so much that was told is later shown to be false points to a big cover-up.]

    Or pehaps the result of people under immense pressure to provide information, in a situation where there was very little information, giving out the speculation, theories and initial thoughts of the various agencies doing the investigation. Stuff up rather than stitch up.

  25. zoilords – That’s quite fascinating. I’vebeen wondering whether, after faffing around for a long time Turnbull might just throw up his hands, say it can’t be stopped and just roll out the fibre.

  26. citizen

    I will give it a go and others can add their bit.

    Eddie Obeid his son Moses came up with a scheme to make money out of a company they had set up which was called AWH (Australian Water Holdings).

    They were trying with this company to take over the Government owned Sydney Water.

    Libs the Obeids and affiliates were paying themselves huge amounts of money for very little work.

    The Obeids are notorious in NSW for wheeling and dealing within enterprises.

    How on earth Obeid got all this money I do not know but that is what is being investigated.

    Some of their money was earned working with Libs and offering them donations for their election campaigns.

    They are a disgrace the lot of them including Sinodinis.

  27. After this ICAC investigation is concluded and sorted, I’d like to see another investigation.


    Bring this one on baby, bring it on!

  28. “@andrew_lund: Geoff Shaw’s just voted against the government to defeat the Jury Directions Amendment Bill @9newsmelb #springst”

  29. Re “environmental boycotts” as well as boycotts related other issues such as fair trade, exploitation of workers and so forth. If a group were conducting a boycott campaign against a company, alleging that, for example, it was using illegally harvested timber, and that the company could demonstrate this this was false, surely the company would have legal recourse without the need for special laws disallowing “environmental boycotts”.

    If the group were alleging that the company was using timber from old growth forests in Tasmania, perfectly OK under Liberal Federal and State Govermnments, and they in fact they did use such timber, then that’s a piece of information that their potential customers have a right to know if it matters to them.

  30. [guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 4:04 pm | Permalink
    “@Pollytics: Extraordinary Qld polling coming out soon”]

    I was Reachteled on Qld state voting last night. Also had questions on Newman’s performance, whether voters had a right to know who would lead LNP if Newman lost his seat, and questions on the doctor’s dispute. Did not say who it was conducted on behalf of but I presumed the doctors.

  31. Re NBN Rollout

    I am in NBN Rollout area 2LJT-03 Killarney Vale, NSW. 2LJT-03 area has been ‘active’ for about 3 weeks. My specific local area FDA16 was activated last week. All ISP’s web sites confirm that NBN fibre is available at my address. As soon as I confirmed that, I placed an order with Skymesh, on their ‘match any plan’ offer. They attempted to place a connection order with NBNCo via their connection appointment portal. I was on the phone while they tried this. The system gave them an earliest offered date of, wait for it, 30 June, 2014 (3 months !!!). I groaned, but said, if that’s all there is, go for it. When they attempted to confirm, 20 seconds later, the offered appointment was gone. They have tried multiple times since. There are NO available appointments for connection for my location being offered by NBN, at any time, whatsoever. Has been like this for 5 days now. I phoned Exetel (another ISP), spoke to Daniel, a really nice chap. He went on line for me to see when an appointment could be made. Same answer. Ditto Optus.
    NBNCo are offering no connection dates at all.
    Spoke to NBNCo, got no coherent answer. They trot out the company line, ‘connection dates are a matter between you and your ISP’. When you explain that the ISP can get no available dates from NBNCo, they just rinse and repeat. Perfect Catch 22.

    It is a shambles. NBNCo say that an area is active, but are completely unable to provide an appointment for the last 10 to 20 metres into a house/business to be done. The process is not complicated, no different to getting the phone on. Much less than getting power on. NBNCo say that rollout has occurred, but, in actuality, the ability to take up does not exist. Guess what the uptake will be in this area. At the moment NBNCo are forcing it to be precisely nil.



  32. mad dog – if I had the cable 10 metres from my door, I would be doing backflips, even if it was going to take a while for the rest.

  33. zoilords – yeh, you’re right. I sometimes think that they’ll accept the insanity of what they are doing and quietly change course. Just proves I’m delusional.

  34. Citizen

    I think that MTBW’s outline is, with respect, a little inaccurate.

    1) In the early 1990’s AWH was a smallish property developer in western Sydney

    2) Sydney Water had problems keeping up with building infrastructure, and struck up a relationship with AWH whereby AWH actually laid the pipes and sent all accounts to SW to pay them.

    3) When Rod “deGeronimo” started running the company he had great plans to become a big Private/Public partner with SW and make a motza.

    4) Post 2000 he got Obeid on side as a lobbyist, to bring about the formal partnership ……. Obeid then heavied Iemma, Rees,and Keneally.

    5) ICAC has heard that around about 2010 Obeid became a shareholder or part owner of AWH. (Moses claimed yesterday that they just gave AWH $3mill…. his poor memory ensured that his evidence was that they didn’t actually part own it …… Just a gift or some such thing)

    6) Other than Obeid, most of the main players at the top of AWH were affiliated with the NSW Libs, hence the donations.

    The long and short of it is that WH’s principals were thieving lots of NSW taxpayers’ dosh through the agreed mechanism of SW actually payong AWH’s bills.

    Much of the dosh went to huge salaries.

    A relatively small amount, but a significant amount, went to the NSW libs party.

    Meanwhile Sinodinos was treasurer and President of the NSW Libs, and Director and Chair of AWH, but he wasn’t aware of any of the above.

    Lying pricks!!!! Just a case of noses in the trough.

  35. Kevin, It may as well be 1000 kms away for all the good it does me. There are around 4,000 premises in this rollout area which are supposedly active. None of them, and I mean none, can get a date for a connection. All ISP’s including Telstra and Optus are getting the same answer. NBNCo has NO capability for connecting anybody in this area, at all, according to themselves. As I said, a shambles. Profound incompetence.

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