Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)

The first Galaxy poll since the federal election finds nothing in it, while Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns suggest the swing is weakest in the state where voters head to the polls on Saturday.

The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.

UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,028 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)”

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  1. [It’s increasingly obvious that what they really support is the classical fascist concept of the corporate state, where the government and corporations are in partnership to make profits and do not give a shit about the rest of society.]

    Bingo.

  2. [Joan Evatt ‏@Boeufblogginon ·22 secs
    #icac Watson: Some of these expenses were occurring when AWH weren’t paying their tax? Right?]

    As Assistant Treasurer, Artie has responsibility for the ATO and ASIC.

  3. [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·1m
    AWH spent more that $164,000 on a box at Olympic Stadium at the same time can’t pay statutory obligations. But Arfur not aware of box #icac]

    Gee, that is a hefty sum for a corporate box?

  4. “@Kate_McClymont: Arfur’s brief Tony Bannon, SC, is protesting that #icac is not an insolvency hearing nor an inquiry into director’s duties #auspol”

  5. This ICAC stuff is great – if he sticks to the “I know nuffink” line then he is admitting he has failed to discharge his corporate duties. If he doesn’t, he fails to discharge his Liberal stooge duties.

  6. The word ‘environment’ and its derivatives seem to be anathama to the Liberal & National parties, their backers and their constituency. So ‘environment boycotts’ are on a par with communism, terrorism, socialism, unions, being the dole, satanic black magic, etc. Maybe they’re banking on only people who would never vote for them being opposed to this move. However, I expect that Tim Wilson and Andrew Bolt will be outraged at this attacked on free speech.

  7. Sinodinos’ extensive and seemingly well targeted amnesia is no surprise at all.

    ICAC probably, therefore, cannot make a finding against Sinodinos. He may have been completely derelict in his duty as a director, but that is not for ICAC to determine, and it doesn’t indicate corrupt behaviour on Sinodinos’ part.

    It better bloody well be the end of his political career regardless.

  8. “@sspencer_63: Sinodinos’ #icac strategy of “I knew nothing” “I can’t recall” maybe legally sound, but must be deadly to his political career.”

  9. another journo summing up…

    [Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63 ·10s
    Sinodinos’ #icac strategy of “I knew nothing” “I can’t recall” maybe legally sound, but must be deadly to his political career.]

  10. [Preventing secondary boycotts by unions has a reasonable basis.
    ]

    It most certainly has no rational logical or economic basis anyone has ever shared with me – it is simply a tool to weaken the very little power employees already have.

  11. [Preventing secondary boycotts by unions has a reasonable basis. <\i>

    It most certainly has no rational logical or economic basis anyone has ever shared with me – it is simply a tool to weaken the very little power employees already have.]

    I’m with WWP on this one.

  12. [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·8 secs
    Now we see Liberal heavyweight Paul Nicolaou’s company Solutions R Us paid $159k by AWH. Arfur saw no paperwork about the work done #icac]

    Nicolaou is up later today at ICAC, and may be able to recall what this payment was for?

  13. so Artie is sticking to his Serjeant Schultz defence..

    [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·59s
    Senator Sinodinos admits he “can’t recall any output” that Nicolaou produced for his billings of $159,500 #icac]

  14. This Sinodinos trainwreck appearance at ICAC is a disaster for the Govt.

    They’ve trumped this bloke up so much only to now see him in the same tent as Obeid.

  15. Unions have in the past behaved very badly indeed with respect to any number of issues. When you have industrial action initiated and sustatined apparently for any number of arbitrary and specious reasons you get the law being applied against unions to limit industrial action to specific negotiations between an employer and their employees.

    IR has a long and special history in Australia, and the fact that there are special cases for unions is just part of that.

  16. [ Gee, that is a hefty sum for a corporate box? ]

    Now be fair! They had to pay extra to get the pole installed for the pole dancing.

  17. BK

    A lot of questions for the NSW Liberal party too. Starting with did Sinodinos breach electoral laws on disclosure of political donations?

  18. At best Sinodinos’s political career is cactus. There may be some ASIC issues there but given how ASIC issues end up it’s unlikely Sinodinos will suffer much pain there.

    Given how the hearing is going it doesn’t seem like ICAC has anything to nail him with the corruption allegations.

    I don’t see how he can now return to the ministry which is why Abbott set him loose before his day at ICAC.

    Obviously Sinodinos wasn’t as smart as I though he was. Pity but such is life.

  19. very odd indeed. Operation Spicer may find even more “odd” arrangements between aligned companies and Liberal Party coffers. Though I susepct Artie won’t be much help…

    [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·24s
    Very odd that Nicolaou, as Libs fundraising head, never said to his mate “hey Arthur, thanks very much for the retainer” monthly $5k #icac]

  20. [A lot of questions for the NSW Liberal party too]

    None of which will be asked in the NSW Parliament by the NSW opposition which is a thoroughly disgraceful state of affairs.

  21. [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·53 secs
    EightbyFive, a liberal slush fund, received $183,342 at same time AWH couldn’t pay staff super or tax bill #icac]

    EightbyFive is the subject of Operation Spicer. Now where exactly did all the donations they received go to?

    And why is Artie getting such fulsome support from his federal colleagues? So many questions…

  22. Shellbell

    [None of which will be asked in the NSW Parliament by the NSW opposition which is a thoroughly disgraceful state of affairs.
    ]

    maybe they are waiting for the Libs to self-immolate like they traditionally have? ICAC is giving plenty of ammo which should fill up QT until the election, and help the process along.

  23. Victoria Parliament is getting interesting again

    “@Jane_GarrettMP: Govt refusing to test numbers on floor of house #springst”

  24. [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·2m
    Lordy! Sinodinos said he “can’t recollect”knowing as treasurer of the Libs that AWH, where he was director, donated a total of $72,483 #icac]

  25. [IR has a long and special history in Australia, and the fact that there are special cases for unions is just part of that.
    ]

    Well you are essentially arguing that a secondary boycott is (or can be) an abuse of power and that logic applies to all secondary boycotts not simply union ones.

    I think it is a load if bollocks in both cases – but I can see an argument that collective consumer power should never be allowed to be exercised for any purpose at all.

  26. [mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 8:23 am | PERMALINK
    We use the Sydney tram all the time, it’s a great service if a little pricy.

    When the kids were younger we’d take the tram to China Town for yum cha. We called it getting the train to China. 🙂]

    As a tram and train enthusiast it’s great to hear people talking about Sydney trams again. I’m sure over time there will be many more new lines and extensions as the population continues to increase and commuting by car becomes more and more impractical and expensive.

  27. [maybe they are waiting for the Libs to self-immolate like they traditionally have? ICAC is giving plenty of ammo which should fill up QT until the election, and help the process along.]

    There only strategy is to operate at the lobbyist level and then generally since all roads otherwise lead back to themselves.

    The can nod their heads when the Greens ask qs in the Upper House

  28. All mentioned are/were prominent members of the NSW Liberal Party

    [12:24pm: What’s all this, then? Sinodinos admits he is aware of Eightbyfive, a slush fund linked to former NSW Liberal energy minister Chris Hartcher.

    But he says he was not aware that Australian Water had paid $183,342 to the fund in monthly instalments of $7333.

    The inquiry has heard Australian Water chief executive Nick Di Girolamo arranged for Australian Water to make “regular payments” to Eightbyfive in exchange for favourable treatment by Mr Hartcher.

    Eightbyfive was set up by Tim Koelma, a former adviser to Mr Hartcher, who resigned in April 2012 amid an investigation into the slush fund.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-arthur-sinodinos-fronts-corruption-inquiry-20140402-35yaz.html#ixzz2xmb3xKxF

  29. Don @ 1804

    Phone records of Woods iphone should be available from prior to him boarding in KL Airport which would clearly identify the phone alegedly used on DG.

  30. so what is the penalty for lying at ICAC?

    [Paddy Manning ‏@gpaddymanning ·1 min
    Sinodinos just staked his credibility on a statement that he never got shares in AWH … then presented with this pic.twitter.com/wzz831f4g8]

  31. WWP –

    but I can see an argument that collective consumer power should never be allowed to be exercised for any purpose at all

    lmao. Right, so you think the Libs have a case?

  32. shellbell

    [The corporate stuff may be a challenge to the ICAC Commissioner whose background is mainly crimes of violence]

    So as long as Arthur didn’t whack one of the Directors over the head, or threaten them with a gun to steal their dosh, he should escape any censure 😀

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