Seat of the week: Adelaide

Seat of the week returns after a few weeks on the back burner, with the focus remaining on South Australia.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

Comments Page 17 of 28
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  1. meher baba

    [If Labor wants to remain relevant, it needs to get into government. Someone like Howes is far more likely to lead them into government and keep them there than anyone I can see on the horizon at the moment.]

    I don’t regard this as plausible, but if I did, that would be a negative rather than a positive, because it would simply signal a more systematic and effective rollback of the benefits accrued by working people than the Liberals have managed. Murdoch would then completely control both parties.

    Really, if the choice is between the Liberals doing bad stuff or the ALP doing bad stuff, I’d prefer the Liberals to do it. If the ALP isn’t be worth voting for, then they should focus on getting their act together so that people wanting an alternative to the Liberal policy can have one.

  2. [MTBW@780: Yes, I’m a smart arse. But I reckon I’m a smart smart arse.
    ]

    I’m sure you do. Howes does too.

    The following ‘analysis’ of yours might apply to one certain former PB regular.

  3. Baba

    Yeah Australia the country that gave the women the vote. The country of unions rights and not letting them be undone, the country that has medicare, the country of the Fair Go is so naturally a right wing leaning country what a load of BS.

    Stop reading the Murdoch narrative its not true. As will be seen more and more as Murdoch influence wanes and real people’s voices are heard.

  5. [Michaela Whitbourn ‏@MWhitbourn ·2 mins
    Australian Water secretly billed Sydney Water for hundreds thousands of dollars in legal fees after the two companies locked horns #ICAC]

    [Michaela Whitbourn ‏@MWhitbourn ·4 mins
    #ICAC hears Australian Water may have billed Sydney Water for Bruce Springsteen tickets. Born to Run up huge bills seems to be the AWH way.]

  7. [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont ·10s
    The ingenuity of AWH knows no ends. They were billing SydWater for their hugely steep legal bills from Allens who were advising AWH #icac]

    this is wonderfull stuff. Oh, and Artie is in the dock next week.

  8. [Howes has 20 times as much substance as Rudd.]

    If that is the case then I wish he’d start showing it.

    Sorry, but I think he’s just a vacuous, self-promoting airhead who seems ‘articulate’ because he appears in Murdoch papers and on Murdoch TV surrounded by yammering Liberal idiots like Chris Kenny.

    Perhaps time away from the political bubble might substance him up a bit. But I doubt it.

  10. [The ingenuity of AWH knows no ends. They were billing SydWater for their hugely steep legal bills from Allens who were advising AWH #icac]

    Someone’s head has to roll for that, surely. No wonder Sinodinos has lawyered up.

  11. [Coalition brands government illegitimate ]

    Doubtless, Pyne is now campaigning for proportional representation and decrying the illegitimate Federal result in 1998 using it, and results in 1954, 1961 and 1969 as cautionary tales.

  12. [ meher baba
    Posted Monday, March 24, 2014 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    MTBW@780: Yes, I’m a smart arse. But I reckon I’m a smart smart arse. ]

    Self praise is worth nothing.

  15. “@Simon_Cullen: Bill Shorten: “Paul Howes has made an excellent contribution to the Australian labour movement, both at the AWU and prior.””

    “@Simon_Cullen: Bill Shorten: “Paul… is respected by industry, unions and government alike””

  17. @PoliticsFairfax: Resignation leaves Paul Howes free to push for historic split between Labor and unions. http://t.co/6MNKsOMCI4 #auspol

    If so Pyne will soon be squealing as both unions and Labor get stronger as reforms take effect. See UK for path.

  19. meher

    Put you ego in your back pocket!

    Howes is an opportunist in a number of ways none of which you touch upon.

    So he is off to Sky this morning to tell his story about why he has done this.

    A month or so ago he was advocating for Labor to work with the Libs.

    That didn’t work so now we will leave the table and try something else.

    Michael Kroger will look after him and all will be well.

  21. If meher baba doesn’t praise him/herself, then who else is gunna do it? A very proactive attitude, if you ask me. No use waiting for others to sing one’s praise.

  23. @political_alert: Paul Howes has told Sky News he’s “not sure” what he’ll do after finishing up with the AWU but intends to study #auspol

  24. guytaur

    I’ll bet he is “not sure” he is waiting to find out what Kroger will offer him.

    Wait to see the guest list at his wedding next month that will give you some idea.

  27. [ MTBW
    Posted Monday, March 24, 2014 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

    meher

    Put you ego in your back pocket!

    Howes is an opportunist in a number of ways none of which you touch upon.

    So he is off to Sky this morning to tell his story about why he has done this.

    A month or so ago he was advocating for Labor to work with the Libs. ]

    Latham on howes –

    [ Faceless, yet two-faced

    It struck me last week, during the burst of publicity surrounding the launch of Confessions of a Faceless Man, that Paul Howes is the Rex Mossop of the Labor movement. Having left school in Year 9 and missed the benefits of a higher education, Howes is intent on proving his worldliness to the political class. In interviews he has the hard-trying habit of dropping detailed economic statistics into his answers, even when the question didn’t ask for them.

    …Howes has also rifled through the policy dictionary searching for political respectability. He first got involved in politics as a Trotskyite, an active member of the Democratic Socialist Party and Resistance, denouncing the Labor movement as a cabal of capitalist sell-outs.

    Now he is the head of the nation’s oldest trade union, the Australian Workers’ Union.

    That’s the problem with the Trots — they have nothing to offer young careerists other than a lifetime of stench-ridden poverty, agitating at lonely protest meetings against the ruling class.

    …Howes is still a young man, yet he has changed every policy position he has ever held.

    He used to rail against American imperialism. Now he is part of the US cheer squad, aka the Australian American Leadership Dialogue.

    …Once he supported the Palestinian people and their struggle against Zionist hegemony. Now in his book he barracks for ‘the rights of the state of Israel’.

    His justification for these shifts is extraordinary, writing that:

    In Howes’ world, ideological consistency is a vice while careerist opportunism is a virtue. He claims to have left the Trots because of their suppression of political freedoms and free-thinking. His answer was to join the NSW Right faction of the Labor party.

    This conversion, however, has had an unlikely upside. One of the unwritten rules of political activism is that all Trots are ugly. Aesthetically there is something to be said for turning them into faceless men. More than most, Howes has benefitted from this.

    His Confessions, nonetheless, are a jumbled mess. In March, he publicly declared his ‘love’ of Kevin Rudd, yet his book is a long hate-session against the man — opining, for instance, that ‘it is impossible to like Rudd once you get to know him.’ Paul didn’t like Kevin, so he got rid of him. In his diary entry for 23 July 2010, however, he claims to have ‘always believed in loyalty’.

    ….It is sometimes said that Lenin used the expression ‘useful idiots’ to describe the trade union leaders of the West. This is how I feel about Howes.

    In his avalanche of interviews, newspaper articles and books, he provides great copy for columnists who write about the Labor side of politics.

    His comments are so contrived, contradictory and more often than not, plain stupid, that he adds instant colour to a piece. ]

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/australia/6474763/faceless-yet-twofaced/

  28. I think that asking Kroger to launch his book some time ago in Melbourne was one of the silliest things Howes has done

    Kroger is one of the most b hardline Tories ….so what sort of a friend is he ?…and Howes attack on the wages es given to low paid workers is straight out of Hockey’s book

    are some hoping for him, to be leader…are they tiring of the uninspiring Shorten?

  32. guytaur

    After leaving school in year 9 an upgrade in quals would be a good thing for him. Cos this is a bit of a worry 🙂

    [Howes lied about his age to get a job as a bank teller – ”I was no good, couldn’t reconcile the accounts.” ]
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/bluecollar-nerves-of-steel-20091106-i296.html

    From wiki

    [As AWU National Secretary, Howes is Deputy Chair of AustralianSuper, one of the largest superannuation trusts in Australia.]

  39. Dave

    Thanks for those comments from Latham!

    I despair sometimes over some of those who claim to be Labor and if it means calling me a leftie as Meher does then I take it a compliment.

  41. confessions

    Move to Sydney – it is coming down in bucket loads we are now getting thunder and lightning.

    We need it so badly!

  46. [His comments are so contrived, contradictory and more often than not, plain stupid, that he adds instant colour to a piece. ]

    Howes has the intellectual depth of a puddle in the Sahara.

  49. poroti -It was very dry here until about 2 weeks ago.

    The we got 90mm one afternoon in 2 hours.

    Had about 25mm over the last few days.

  50. Do the nationals push for action against CC within the LNP? You’d think they’d have to, considering how much damage it will cause to their constituents.

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