Seat of the week: Adelaide

Seat of the week returns after a few weeks on the back burner, with the focus remaining on South Australia.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

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  1. guytaur:

    We could do with some of that. And to top it off today it’s a hot one.

    Good day to stay inside with airconditioning.

  2. Lots of negative empty rhetoric aimed at Paul Howes today on PB.

    I’m interested in something of substance from those critical of him that explains why he’s ‘bad’.

    Seems to me some see him as ‘bad’ for reasons unbeknownst to themselves.

  3. jimmyhaz:

    The Nationals advocate sod all for addressing AGW. Remember Sen Boswell thinks it’s an anti capitalist conspiracy or something.

  4. confessions

    Hopefully your turn soon. The way climate is changing we will soon regard air conditioning as essential as the electricity it runs on.

    Either that or their will be a lot more Cooper Pedy’s

  5. I’m interested in something of substance from those critical of him that explains why he’s ‘bad’.

    I’m interested in something of substance from those supportive of him that explains why he’s ‘good’.

    Beyond being able to deliver a speech well.

  6. confessions

    If you are able I would invest in indoor aluminium shutters for you windows.

    They are marvellous and you just shut them up when you need to. I have them on all but three of my windows and my last electricity was $237 for the quarter.

    I only needed to use my air con on about seven or so days.

  7. The old answer a question with another question trick eh ?

    It’s not a trick. My criticism of Howes is that he has shown no evidence of having any substance, so when you say:

    I’m interested in something of substance

    It is a bit of a problem for me – my “something of substance” is that Howes is lacking in substance.

    Yes he can speak well.

    I just have a small problem with the silly things he says and his abysmal timing for when he says them.

    So if you or anyone else who seems to want to champion Howes as a future leader (of anyone!) want to make the case, feel free to spell out something that he has done or said that is noteworthy, shows a rare intelligence or perception on his part, or some sense of vision.

  8. [I only needed to use my air con on about seven or so days.]

    That would be about the annual aircon usage for me too. It doesn’t get stinking hot here very often, just the odd day or so during the year when it’s humid.

  9. Jackol

    Of course he lacks ‘substance’.

    He’s only 32 years of age after all. 😆

    What’s clear is that he’s an excellent communicator and has a sense of pragmatism that catches the ears of both sides of the spectrum.

    For him to be gaining experiences in other areas at this time is to be growing in ‘substance’. A good thing.

  10. He’s only 32 years of age after all.

    Many 32 year olds exhibit significantly more substance than Howes has ever done.

    For him to be gaining experiences in other areas at this time is to be growing in ‘substance’. A good thing.

    Ok, so for the time being he is, and continues to be, a lightweight. Just another wannabe. When (if) he develops all this substance then he can prove himself. Until then he is another nobody who thinks rather too much of his own importance.

  11. Rex

    [nd has a sense of pragmatism that catches the ears of both sides of the spectrum.]

    That’s not surprising as he’s changed his position so many times on anything and everything.

  12. Such a nasty tone to your contributions re Howes… still not sure why ?

    I have very little time for anyone whose only contribution to public life appears to be their own self promotion.

  13. [Kate McClymont
    Tony Kelly’s bodgied up cabinet minute has all the hallmarks of lawyer and AWH director Nick Di Girolamo’s handiwork #ICAC]

  14. As to Howes I work on a 10 stikes and you are out policy:

    1. Howes was a Trot – OK he was young but it is still strike one – Trots tend to be unstable and if not ideologically rigid, easily “bought”

    2. Part of the Plot to get rid of Rudd – tricky and duplicitous

    3. Stupidly appeared on the ABC Gloating about it – indicated lack of political judgment

    4. Is friends with Kroger – lie down with dogs and you get up with fleas

    5. Wikkileaks and the CIA – reinforces point 1 – easily bought

    6. Works for the AWU and was part of the action to destroy the original mining tax – ie ALL those involved including Swan carry the tag of “in bed with the bosses”

    7. Recent – sell out speech at the Press club- gave ammunition to the tories – either stupid or treacherous (or both)

    He has three strikes left before being utterly beyond the pale.

    Now in terms of being electable I really do think that his face is against him. There was a REASON the casters chose a chinless man to play the role of Wormtail, the rat and betrayer. Howes is his doppelganger.

  15. “@larissawaters: Our white male middle-class Attorney-General just said “people do have a right to be bigots”. Under this Gov, they are encouraged. #SenateQT”

  16. [Kate McClymont
    Dr Schott said AWH’s expenses had ballooned from $200k a month to to $600k a month with no work going on @smh #ouch #ICAC]

  17. “@GrogsGamut: There was a time the Minister for the Environment used to answer questions about the environment, right? #qt”

  18. Why leaves you to obviously think his contribution to the AWU and its members was unsatisfactory ?

    I have no visibility of his contribution to the AWU.

    If he has had some noteworthy successes that came about because of his input and unique insight, then feel free to share these with us so we can become enlightened.

    My judgements are my own personal judgements (that goes without saying) and are based upon what I have observed of Howes’ forays into national politics over the last 5 years or so since I started noticing him.

    Again, as I’ve asked before in this thread, if there are things he has done or said that show his true potential that I am discounting, unaware of or have forgotten, feel free to make the case.

  19. [4. Is friends with Kroger – lie down with dogs and you get up with fleas]
    This says more about you DTT than anyone else. How petty.

  20. [Kate McClymont
    Arthur Sinodinos was personally warned by Dr Schott that he should be careful of the company he was keeping&suggested AWH dishonest #ICAC]

  21. “@Kate_McClymont: Arthur Sinodinos stayed for another year after this warning. He was also told of SW’s concern about lack of docs 4 ballooning expenses #ICAC”

  22. dtt@877 Howes is certainly no Gainsborough, but is he outstandingly ugly when benchmarked against this reference group:

    Tony Abbott
    Joe Hockey
    Kevin Rudd
    Brendan Nelson
    John Howard
    Simon Crean
    Mark Latham
    Kim Beazley
    Bill Hayden
    John Hewson
    etc, etc.

    I would exempt Julia Gillard, Malcolm Turnbull, Paul Keating, Andrew Peacock and Gough Whitlam from inclusion in this group because Julia was reasonably foxy and Malcolm, Paul, Andrew and Gough – as far as I can tell as a heterosexual male – were all ok looking. Bob Hawke wasn’t, but he had an extraordinary level of personal magnetism which explains why so many women found him attractive (further back, John Gorton was similar).

    But on the whole, as Latham puts it, “politics is Hollywood for ugly people”.

  23. I hear the President of the AWU told the Secretary to resign all of his positions in the ALP movement.

    The media think Howes is the head of the AWU, he thought so as well, until the real boss stomped on him. 🙂

    Will “Ludwigged” make it into the dictionary.

  24. Gary

    Kroger is a hard line Tory warrior. ALL members of the ALP/union movement who befriend him are likely to be being used.

    Now I am NOT saying that Kroger is a bad man but when a middle class educated guy befriends a fellow 30 years younger with almost NO commonality of interests, I make an assumption that one or other of them is being played for a fool (OK there is one other possibility but I prefer not to go there).

    Now of course there can be friendships across the political divide, but they need some sort of basis in shared intereit, be it shared enemy, music, kids, family, sport etc. Now given the age difference, kids, sport, music are all a little unlikely but If you can show me the commonality, then I will withdraw my comment.

  25. Understatement!

    [kate Mcclymont
    This is looking bad for Arfur to have the head of SydneyWater warn him his directors were dishonest and to be careful. #ICAC #auspol]

    Btw spoke to someone who has dealings with Liberal MP Josh frydenberg.
    Was told that the coalition were going through the motions of towing the party line in supporting Arfur, but of course, they all know that the situation is bad for them

  26. [Kate McClymont
    Geoffrey Watson SC suggested Kelly’s doctored cabinet minute tantamount to fraud.
    Dr Schott: a terrible abuse of government process #ICAC
    2:36pm – 24 Mar 14]

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