BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

A slight lead in Nielsen, together with the fading effect of weak results a few weeks back, finds the Coalition squeaking ahead on two-party preferred for the first time this year.

This week’s lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, together with a particularly bad result for Labor from Essential, has given the Coalition a two-party lead in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the first time this year, albeit by the barest of margins. This represents a considerable move on last week’s result, which equally reflects the fading effect of Labor’s 54-46 and 53-47 leads in Newspoll and ReachTEL three to four weeks ago. With the electoral terrain favouring the Coalition, a fairly comfortable majority is recorded on the seat projection, with four coming off the Labor gains from Queensland since last week, together with two each from New South Wales and Victoria and one each from Western Australia and Tasmania. A new set of leadership figures is provided by Nielsen, which maintains the slowly narrowing trajectory on preferred prime minister and slightly lifts both leaders on net satisfaction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

Comments Page 29 of 34
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  1. Surely someone is jesting. Tony Abbott has jumped out of a stewing pot in PNG to take command of a search for a Malaysian plane. I’m missing a few socks, so if he could look into that while he’s at it..

  2. This piece in the AFR as posted by Sprocket, goes into great detail to explain the timeline re AWH and fhe Liberal donations. A clear explanation what the corruption inquiries are about

    [It was a not-for-profit company set up in the early 1990s to supervise construction of water and sewerage in north-west Sydney. Its charter said it could not earn a profit, just claim for expenses from Sydney Water. It was sort of a public service venture.

    Stocklands and the NSW government thought it was so unimportant they handed the company over for nothing to its two longest-serving employees.]

  4. [deblonay
    Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 at 1:41 am | Permalink

    Tom Paine watch out
    ______________
    your insightfull comments will bring down on your head the usual shitload of silly comments from people like Geoffrey(I wish he would learn to right an entire sentance ..instead of the odd bits and pieces which one has to decipher)]

    With a hey, and a ho, and a hey hey-nonny-no…

    No capital letter to start the sentence; ‘Insightfull’ mispelled; full stop after ‘Geoffrey’ missing; space missing after the missing full stop; ‘Sentance’ mispelled; superfluous paranthesis; full stop at end of sentence missing.

    The general absence of irony matches the general absence of spelling, grammar and punctuation.

    That is one why of addressing Geoffrey’s alleged ‘entire sentence’ issues.

    No doubt you will be able to write a proper sentence after the revolution.

  8. [ not one refugee status determination has been completed since the first transfer of asylum seekers in November 2012.]

    Just so we’re clear then: this means Manus is not an “offfshore processing facility”. They’re not processing anyone. Its a mental torture facility, to discourage others.

    Add the occasional violent death, and we’ve got something that will soon be seen as a very dark chapter in Australian history.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/future-of-manus-island-asylum-seekers-unclear-as-peter-oneill-says-most-are-not-genuine-refugees-20140321-35896.html#ixzz2wehUG1xd

  9. On Mondays episode of 7 1/2 Ms Ferguson said that their story on the orange lifeboat towbacks was part 1 of a 2 part story with the second part to be shown later in the week.

    Part 1 on Monday had vision recorded by a mobile phone of those on the boat saying such things as “We Will kill you”(Navy Personnel) and “F%^k Australia! F^%k Australia!” (while giving the finger) and also saying “Remember 9/11 in America, this is what you get for your deeds”.

    Surprisingly the second part of this 2 part story has gone missing in action somewhere between monday night and friday by the ABC without explanation. Strange.

  10. GG,
    If you mean do I prefer the plague or the pox, well that’s a difficult one to answer. Apparently, though, Shakespeare wrote “plague”, but is quoted as “pox”.

  14. On 26 February 2013 ….
    Sinodinos told the senate he was “obviously … shocked and disappointed to learn that a company whose mission I believed in and was passionate about was financially linked to the Obeid family.

    What was that MISSION ?…….. To ensure that a previously not for profit Consortium set up to facilitate provision of water & sewage services AT COST ( to save NSW tax payers money) would instead rip off these same NSW taxpayers so he & his spiv mates could make a killing

    Worth a read ( I previously posted )…

    https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/la/latabdoc.nsf/0/d62ff198822455daca257bc8001eb412/$FILE/Letter%20-%20Chairman,%20AWH%20to%20Chairman,%20SWC.pdf

    He is fractionally better than Obied …. a very small fraction.

  18. Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 at 1:38 pm | PERMALINK
    deblonay
    Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 at 1:41 am | Permalink

    Tom Paine watch out
    ______________
    your insightfull comments will bring down on your head the usual shitload of silly comments from people like Geoffrey(I wish he would learn to right an entire sentance ..instead of the odd bits and pieces which one has to decipher)

    With a hey, and a ho, and a hey hey-nonny-no…

    No capital letter to start the sentence; ‘Insightfull’ mispelled; full stop after ‘Geoffrey’ missing; space missing after the missing full stop; ‘Sentance’ mispelled; superfluous paranthesis; full stop at end of sentence missing.

    The general absence of irony matches the general absence of spelling, grammar and punctuation.

    That is one why of addressing Geoffrey’s alleged ‘entire sentence’ issues.

    No doubt you will be able to write a proper sentence after the revolution.

    ———well said comrade. tres true and drole. now i know what soviets lacked – irony. at least in published literature. and a soviet putin aint – the latter had some redeeming virtues. but it is good indeed therapeutic to be able to vent – spontaneous overflow against the surrogate putin lovers in our midst. one needs reason to polish sentences on a blog, and deblonay would be last as an audience to provide one. am surprizzzed by tom paine but we all have our limits. if one must metahorically get into bed on current russaphile issues i’m with the georgeous pussy riot girls anyday – they are the heroes of the forthcoming and last russian revolution.

  23. i meant it is rhetorical by myself to ask what is an illegal boat arrival – but am not sure I know – does a boot mean arrivals without visas etc. doesn’t that assume they are not asylum seekers? is there some imperative for refugees to have paper work or something. are smugglers to illegal operators? why is that the case? what exactly is he talking about?

  26. A good backgrounder that looks at the direction the Xi Jinping is taking China.

    [Old Wine in an Ancient Bottle: Changes in Chinese State Ideology

    Xi Jinping has emerged as the strongest Chinese leader in decades………….Xi is also moving to leave his stamp on state propaganda and ideology, borrowing language and themes used by his predecessors and accelerating a trend toward replacing socialist doctrine with nationalist rhetoric that reconciles Mao with Deng Xiaoping, Chiang Kai-shek and Confucius.]
    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42129&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=a7c7aa62760b85e085d3600c4694afaa#.Uyz749iKCUl

  28. Frodo Baggins@1409

    On Mondays episode of 7 1/2 Ms Ferguson said that their story on the orange lifeboat towbacks was part 1 of a 2 part story with the second part to be shown later in the week.

    Part 1 on Monday had vision recorded by a mobile phone of those on the boat saying such things as “We Will kill you”(Navy Personnel) and “F%^k Australia! F^%k Australia!” (while giving the finger) and also saying “Remember 9/11 in America, this is what you get for your deeds”.

    Surprisingly the second part of this 2 part story has gone missing in action somewhere between monday night and friday by the ABC without explanation. Strange.

    That didn’t take long at all.

    Truthie has only been back a few days and he’s back on boats already.

  31. Poroti quoted the extract –

    [accelerating a trend toward replacing socialist doctrine with nationalist rhetoric that reconciles Mao with Deng Xiaoping, Chiang Kai-shek and Confucius. ]

    The article says, inter alia –

    [ he has sought to neuter the struggles between left and right by declaring that the pre-reform historical legacy of Mao Zedong and the post-reform one of Deng Xiaoping are of equal weight (Straits Times, November 9). ]

    Which of course is utter bullshit. Its just propaganda.

    Why ?

    Because Mao said over and over and over and over many times that ideology was more important than economic progress. The result was 20 million or so starving to death during the so called “Great Leap Forward” and then the equally dumb Cultural Revolution which started as a ‘look over there’ distraction to the Great Leap Forward which then got insanely out of hand.

    Deng Xiaoping said the total opposite, he fixed many of Mao’s terrible stuff ups and got purged twice for his efforts.

    Deng got his message across to ordinary people with stuff like –

    “It doesn’t matter if the cat is grey or black – as long as it catches mice” and the huge gamechanger which would have Mao rolling over in his grave –

    “To get rich is glorious!” Go for it comrades – make a pile of money!

    Then in formulating economic programs, which none of them knew how to go about it, he described it as “Crossing the river, feeling for stones”

    What Xi Jinping is putting about is just propaganda which will be barely believed, even in China where the goal is to get rich as quickly as possible and then get most of it offshore where the communist party cannot get their hands on it.

    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Bswords%5D=8fd5893941d69d0be3f378576261ae3e&tx_ttnews%5Bany_of_the_words%5D=Old%20Wine%20in%20an%20Ancient%20Bottle&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42129&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=92260aa0621f9edc07070f581737f038#.Uy0D-857RAE

  35. Centre@1422

    They won’t find the plane, it’s deep under water. I’m probably right again like usual

    So was the Air France plane.
    Remember the one they found in the mid-Atlantic?

  36. It is wonderful how horrified the then Oppn purported to be over the “scandals” of Labor, when, as Mike Seccombe writes:
    [Of course, Sinodinos, by virtue of his long service at the heart of the Howard government – the most scandal-plagued federal government of the past 40 years, which lost 15 frontbenchers due to ethical breaches or incompetence – knows a thing or two about damage control.

    In fact it was scandal that saw him appointed as John Howard’s chief of staff, back in October 1997, at the end of a horror week in which three ministers and three of Howard’s staff were dumped over misuse of travel entitlements. One of those who lost his job was Howard’s chief of staff, Grahame Morris.

    . . .

    For a big question is likely to linger: even if Sinodinos himself is found to have done nothing improper or corrupt, do we really want someone in high public office who is so oblivious to impropriety and corruption around him?]

    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/03/22/sinodinos-steps-down-while-icac-investigates/1395406800#.Uy0DWqiSyKJ

  39. Brock could demand Deputy Premier, be very specific about what will be supported e.g. electoral reform, let the Government run for a 6-12 months and then review the situation when Such returns.

    An election now would only produce the same result.

  40. dave

    Of course it is propaganda .It is all about wrapping themselves in selected pieces of patriotic nostalgia as they move further away from socialism. They sure as hell have no interest in Mao’s economic policies. The party would be out on its ear in no time if they did.
    What I took from the article was a warning of future trouble for the outside world from China adopting such nationalistic attitudes.

  41. victoria@1433

    CTar1

    Truss is actually doing an okay presser. So much better than anything Abbott has done to date

    Truss seems to be a straight shooter with some fundamental decency. In other words, all that Abbott lacks.

    He is not a dynamic speaker and has some sort of speech impediment which he has largely overcome.

    He does not deserve the frequent ridicule he receives on PB.

  43. Greensborough Growler@1439

    Brock could demand Deputy Premier, be very specific about what will be supported e.g. electoral reform, let the Government run for a 6-12 months and then review the situation when Such returns.

    An election now would only produce the same result.

    That’s one scenario.

    But Brock seems, from his statements, not to be particularly interested in any position. But of course he may, as you say, want certain reforms.

    And I think if he supported the ALP to govern, and all had been going well when Such returned, he would be rather hard pressed to want to rock the boat.

  44. Time for a native question in regards to Millers Point

    If a family had lived in a property for a number of years and paid rent is it possible for them to make a legal claim over the right to sell if it can be proven that the total rent paid is greater than the market value.

    Are there any other potential legal avenue because and this brings me to the example set by Native Title which is clearly difference but if you have been in a dwelling for several generations is it possible to challenge.

  45. lizzie @1436
    [do we really want someone in high public office who is so oblivious to impropriety and corruption around him]

    Well, that rules out most of the current sitting ALP Members and the future ALP members from the Unions.

  46. poroti@1440

    dave

    Of course it is propaganda .It is all about wrapping themselves in selected pieces of patriotic nostalgia as they move further away from socialism. They sure as hell have no interest in Mao’s economic policies. The party would be out on its ear in no time if they did.

    Yep. It also goes deeper. Deng aslo implemented a “Mao must not be criticised” policy.

    This was because it would also be criticising the Communist Party and therefor undermining it and themselves.

    [ What I took from the article was a warning of future trouble for the outside world from China adopting such nationalistic attitudes. ]

    Agree once again. They are going to be a problem, no doubt about that in my mind. Another Deng saying –

    “Bide your time and hide your strength “

  48. [Remember the one they found in the mid-Atlantic?]

    No, I can’t say that I do.

    What if they’re still alive and have to eat their dead friends to survive – ewww

    All jokes aside, let’s hope their families can get some real information soon.

  50. dave@1446

    poroti@1440

    dave

    Of course it is propaganda .It is all about wrapping themselves in selected pieces of patriotic nostalgia as they move further away from socialism. They sure as hell have no interest in Mao’s economic policies. The party would be out on its ear in no time if they did.

    Yep. It also goes deeper. Deng aslo implemented a “Mao must not be criticised” policy.

    This was because it would also be criticising the Communist Party and therefor undermining it and themselves.

    What I took from the article was a warning of future trouble for the outside world from China adopting such nationalistic attitudes.


    Agree once again. They are going to be a problem, no doubt about that in my mind. Another Deng saying –

    “Bide your time and hide your strength “

    All societies seem to need their founding myths and legends as part of what confers legitimacy. Pareto and Mosca wrote on this.

    The PRC led by the CCP, has it’s founding myths based on the revolution, the fight against the Japanese and the Long March etc. Just like we have the First Fleet, Eureka Stockade and Galippoli.

    The Chinese Govt will always honour their founding myths no matter how far they change policy.

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