GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.
UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.
UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.
rua:
Buswell is an immature lad with no apparent filters for his public behaviour, playing at being an adult when really he’s just a testosterone-fueled teen who seems to enjoy being in govt for the opportunities it provides for getting pissed and being a drunken lout more than he does doing his frickin job.
I can only imagine the hell kind of shit premier he would’ve been.
[I can only imagine the hell kind of shit premier he would’ve been.]
True, but he would have been better than the incumbent.
Rua
There seems to be little doubt that buswell had many qualities that might have made him a good premier. But …
there are hundreds of sportsmen with the talent to make it at the highest level but most of them lack something, probably the discipline, to do it.
Buswell is just like those coulda been champions.
Deblonay,
I have found it amazing that the media here and in other parts of the world, including the wishy-washy Guardian, have chosen to ignore the Neo-Nazi/Fascist element of the Ukraine mob. The UK Independent is the only paper I know of that tells it like it is.
So walking by TV, and ACA had tomorrow night story as Scientology and buying up everything…
rua:
What makes you think he’d have been a better premier than Barnett? At present I measure Liberal leaders in govt against Abbott, and on that score Barnett always comes out ahead.
Abbott v Buswell however is a whole different story. There are many similarities between the two, the key difference is that Abbott is way smarter than Buswell.
Since Abbott was elected
nearly 60,000 jobs have been lost in manufacturing
Can you trust Abbott?
Is this racist?
sohar, the guardian ran a piece highlighting the fascist elements of the new Ukrainian gov and very critical of the hypocrisy of the West on the whole issue.
I reckon there is some heat on the Malaysian Gov who are about to deliver a press conference on the missing plane
https://twitter.com/STForeignDesk/status/443678560675315712/photo/1
Hi
I don’t claim to know all the facts, but given Deblonay has used accusations about Ukrainian neo-nazis to defend Putin’s actions, lets also consider the following about Russia under Putin.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/window-on-eurasia-russian-neo-nazi.html
“Aleksey Sakhnin, a Left Front activist who has requested political asylum in Sweden, took part in the conference via Skype. He said that it was his view that “the [Russian] government was specifically creating panic in society” in order to make people “more inclined to approve the use of force by the police.”
This approach has the effect of legitimating nationalist extremism, he said.”
http://americablog.com/2014/02/russian-govt-defends-anti-gay-neo-nazi-group-says-kidnappings-never-happened.html
“In an astounding claim, the Russian government yesterday defended a neo-Nazi group for orchestrating nearly 1,500 mostly-anti-gay kidnappings across Russia in the past 18 months. …..
The Russians, angered over a British television documentary exposing a nationwide anti-gay kidnapping ring, then denied that the neo-Nazi abductions had occurred at all, claiming that there is no proof of the crimes, even though the abductors filmed their crimes and posted them widely on Russian social media network VK.com and YouTube.”
Somehow Deblonay reminds me of those who defended Stalin invading Poland, Finland & the Baltic States…
F
Thanks, Simon. Missed that. Stand corrected. Do prefer the Independent, though.
[Simon Katich
Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 at 8:40 pm | PERMALINK
I reckon there is some heat on the Malaysian Gov who are about to deliver a press conference on the missing plane
https://twitter.com/STForeignDesk/status/443678560675315712/photo/1 ]
Bloomberg has a story tonight
[By Bloomberg News Mar 12, 2014 8:22 PM ET
Vietnam is sending a team to Vung Tau in the nation’s southeast after getting an e-mail tip from an oil rig worker about the missing Malaysian Air jet on the fifth day of a multi-nation search effort.
A person who said he spotted what appeared to be a plane on fire sent an e-mail to Vietnam government officials, Vo Van Tuan, deputy head of the national committee for civil aviation safety, said by phone.]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-11/malaysia-probes-hijack-to-sabotage-terror-not-ruled-out.html
Malaysia struggling
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-11/malaysia-failing-to-manage-plane-crisis-exposes-leadership-limit.html
Damien Kingsbury in Crikey’s take on Ukrainian neo-Nazism, it certainly sounds like a more complex situation than just distilling it down to “baddies vs baddies”:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/03/10/cornered-the-russian-bear-likely-to-show-its-teeth-in-region/
Citizen
The last sentence in that Bloomberg article is a ripper –
[The plane’s position when it vanished March 8 may be in doubt, said Richard Bloom, director of terrorism and security studies at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Prescott, Arizona. ]
shellbell
This would have to be the most badly managed disaster I can recall.
Malaysia looks terrible.
Malaysia struggling – it could be worse, it could be the Australian government.
Vung Tau in the right direction and heading.
What exactly is Malaysia supposed to do? The plane has crashed into the sea. Or is it being alleged they are hiding it somewhere?
And the ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s3961300.htm
sohar 1311
I did post a link to the LNL Radio National interview with two experts who dismissed the concern over the far right element, saying it was not a significant element.
Who to believe?
Malaysia could start by stop putting out contradictory statements from everyone in the country who is involved.
The Vietnamese have told them to stop wasting everyone’s time and get their shit together.
Malaysia could also try not letting people on planes who are known to be using stolen passports that are on the Interpol Watch list.
Here is an article on the senior members of the new Ukrainian government. None of them appear to be neo-Nazis. I gather some members of the Svoboda party have been given posts at the next level down. Since this party polled 10% of the vote at the last election they are entitled to representation in an anti-Putin coalition government. Svoboda does have a nasty background but since 2005 they have sought to move away from extremism. I would characterise them as a right-wing nationalist party but not as fascists or neo-Nazis.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10665800/Ukraines-new-government-Whos-who.html
[Malaysia could also try not letting people on planes who are known to be using stolen passports that are on the Interpol Watch list.]
Yes that’s true but it’s got nothing to do with their efforts to find the plane. Anyway no-one now believes there is a connection between the passports and the plane crashing.
An airliner vanishing & a capital city loosing all power for 12 hours. Looks like technology is not all we have come to expect.
Couldn’t think of anything worse than knowing your plane is going down.
From the NYT
[As criticism mounted of the Malaysian authorities’ inability to find any trace of the jet, the officials have repeatedly insisted that they were doing their best to solve the mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, with scarce data and almost no precedent. Yet the government and the airline have also released imprecise, incomplete and sometimes inaccurate information, with civilian officials sometimes contradicting military leaders.]
No one mentioning Crikey’s take on Ukraine today http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/03/12/in-russian-speaking-odessa-a-call-for-calm-as-putin-advances/ – the “alternative realities” theory would seem to hold for many other political issues.
[As criticism mounted of the Malaysian authorities’ inability to find any trace of the jet, the officials have repeatedly insisted that they were doing their best to solve the mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, with scarce data and almost no precedent. Yet the government and the airline have also released imprecise, incomplete and sometimes inaccurate information, with civilian officials sometimes contradicting military leaders.]
Well that’s hardly surprising. The US government did the same in the days after 9/11. I don’t think they can be blamed for “inability to find any trace of the plane.” It’s 99% certain it’s at the bottom the South China Sea. What else are they supposed to be doing?
It’s time to kick out the Abbott government.
Incompetent PM of the worst Government in our history
Psephos
Evidently it can’t all be at the bottom of the ocean. There is always floating debris.
The obvious way to bring these two discussions together is for Deblonay to tell us that the plane was stolen by Ukrainian neo-Nazis acting on instructions from Mossad.
I agree it’s surprising there is no debris. But it’s still the most likely explanation. What are the alternatives? If had been blown up by terrorists or hijacked we would know something about it by now.
I want to know how Mario Balotelli managed to hijack the plane and then play in a Milan team spanked by Atletico Madrid in the next 24 hours.
Psephos@1329
For a start, don’t ask people to search in a place where it is known the aircraft did not go down.
The Malaysian military through their radar knew that the aircraft had made a turn at about the time the transponder ceased working, and flew for an hour or so in a completely different direction to their flight plan, and the plane went down in the Malacca straits.
The Malaysians have given every indication of not knowing what was going on, and have given the impression that they were either trying to cover up what had happened, or didn’t have a clue what had happened. Not a good look.
The relatives of the deceased must be very, very angry by now.
Do try to keep up.
Fess
[The reported background of Iranian Reza Berati, who was horribly killed in Manus last month, was in line with this. You can’t blame a person for seizing a perceived opportunity to build a better life.]
As Berati was neither assessed nor likely to be assessed, we’ll never know if he’d have passed muster as a refugee. However that may be, if you can’t blame “economic refugees” for seeking a better life then you can’t condemn their choice to do IMP. And if you can’t say their choice is irrational, then you can’t say that Manus is an attempt to stop them from drowning or about “people smugglers exploiting refugees”. It’s a coercive police operation in which people, regardless of their claim are brutalised so as to deter others with legitimate claims from making them.
Personally, I believe it would be a step forward if the people defending the moat against the boats dropped this argument and admitted that this was simply designed to minimise applications for asylum, presumably so that the regime in power can use asylum policy exclusively for whatever PR purpose suits it.
Close Manus now !!!!
[Do try to keep up.]
I confess to not keeping up. I don’t spend my day following this saga. Are you saying that the plane flew west across the Malay Peninsula from the South China Sea to the Straits of Malacca? How could it do that without every air traffic control in the region knowing about it?
If you believe this man is a feminist…
I have a bridge for sale in Sydney
AussieAchmed@1340
If incompetent Abbott is a ‘Feminist’, then I am a Martian.
Psephos@1339
If I understand correctly, ATC radar relies on a transponder on the plane. That appears to have been turned off about the time the plane changed direction.
It’s flight path on the new course was tracked by military radar which is passive and does not rely on a transponder.
The new search area covers an area of the Straits of Malacca and there is another in the Andaman Sea.
All very weird and reflecting poorly on the ability of Malaysian civil and military authorities to communicate with each other and co-ordinate their efforts.
[As Berati was neither assessed nor likely to be assessed, we’ll never know if he’d have passed muster as a refugee. ]
As Paul McGeogh’s piece in the SMH, last week, intended to arouse sympathy for Berati, made clear, he was coming to Australia to further his architectural studies and find work.
Psephos@1339
As far as I can work out at the moment, yes, the plane flew west across the Malay Peninsula, that is the information that is now coming to light. This is something that should have been communicated in real time, that is instantly.
[ How could it do that without every air traffic control in the region knowing about it? ]
The short answer is I don’t know.
The long answer is that I suspect they rely on the transponder, which was turned off.
It seems inconceivable, but as far as I can work out at the moment, the only radar operating which did not rely on the non-functioning transponder was the military.
I am surprised that the Indonesians did not know what was going on, surely their radar tracks all air movements.
You would have to wonder whether anyone would know if an aerial invasion force of fighter jets from, say, Christmas Island, would be picked up on radar, and that such an event would not be known about for four days.
Malaysia is not getting good publicity, to put it mildly. The problems of their ways of doing things have really been highlighted with this tragedy.
[All very weird and reflecting poorly on the ability of Malaysian civil and military authorities to communicate with each other and co-ordinate their efforts.]
If that is what happened, then yes I guess that’s true. Very strange.
We’ve been told the plane turned and flew at lower altitudes and turned the transponders off.
Plus, apparently smart phones of passengers are still ringing???
Radar follows the airplane but there are pockets over the oceans where planes aren’t followed.
When you are in a black hole, you are meant to radio in your location at set intervals so two planes don’t collide.
There has never been a commercial plane go down of this size which hasn’t been found in this timeframe. Even the Air France plane debris was fully discovered by five days.
Fran, thanks for your reply @1137.
Your objection to allocating preferences is because you do not want your vote to help elect someone whose policies you find morally objectionable. You are however willing to cast a valid vote in circumstances where you expect your candidate to win, so that you can claim a good faith belief that you will not in fact be assisting anyone else. I put it to you that you would still be entitled to such a good faith belief even if your favoured candidate was sure to finish last. The only circumstance in which your vote would really assist one or the other of your ethically challenged candidates to win would be where their votes were otherwise equal, which is such a remote possibility that you could in good faith dismiss it.
As for possibly endorsing the policies of parties by giving them preferences, we do have a secret ballot. No-one but you knows how your preferences are allocated, and you of course know which policies you do or do not endorse. In any case, given the voting system we have, I do not think any reasonable person would consider a preference (other than first) to constitute an endorsement of policies. Consider the case where there are only two candidates. When the rusted-on Laborite puts “2” in the Liberal box, she is not giving the slightest support to Liberal policies. Add a Green candidate. The Laborite is a right-winger like Centre, thinks the Greens are worse than the Libs and puts the Greens “3”. No-one would think that meant the Laborite’s opinion of Liberal policies must have improved. After all, we voters are all in the same boat, we all know that the parties we don’t vote one for are mostly rubbish :smile:.
So if you know you are not endorsing the policies of your lower preferences, and no-one would assume that you were, I do not see an ethical problem in voting. I agree that if all candidates had policies which you found morally unacceptable, the right response would be an informal vote, but if there is someone you can support, there is no good reason not to do so.
Dee@1346
That is a function of the software of the telco, not necessarily of the phones being operative.
[Plus, apparently smart phones of passengers are still ringing???]
Oh, that really is weird. That would mean it must have landed somewhere. But is this a fact or just internet rumour?