Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

After the last result gave Labor its biggest lead of any poll since the election of the Abbott government, the latest fortnightly Newspoll has come in closer to trend.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.

UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,524 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Ruawake

    [I bit the bullet today and joined the iPad people, mainly because everyone in my family is using facetime.]

    The camera resolution is excellent but looking at your own face at that resolution is not as pleasant as you might think. A little scary actually. 😉

  2. I don’t think the Habib thingy is racist just typical sh1t politics. I think the inference is clear enough. But they all do it.

  3. Mike they have been talking about it all afternoon and the traffic is a mess all over Sydney.

    Hundreds of office workers were sent home around lunch time.

  4. I can’t see the fuss about the flyer.

    Her name IS “Habib” isn’t it?

    Is she ashamed of her name. Does she think having an Arabic-sounding name automatically sets you up as a terrorist?

    This has got to be a crock of shite.

    Joe Hockey – someone who family changed its name from a “wog-sounding” name to a more “Aussie” version – draws a fine distinction between the flyer and Bolt’s.

    Bolt – who was found by the judge to have uttered falsehoods on about a dozen occasions in his article is OK to lambast “white” aborigines for pretending to be “indigenous”, but someone who uses the actual name of the person in question is a racist?

    Utter crap!

    Sounds to me like Ms. Habib is ashamed of her own name, wishes she didn’t have it, and even more so wishes her political opponents wouldn’t use it.

    One of the more ridiculous controversies of recent political history.

  5. [The camera resolution is excellent but looking at your own face at that resolution is not as pleasant as you might think. A little scary actually.]

    I found how to switch cameras rather quickly. 🙂

  6. Looking at the flyer on ABC in it’s entirety I quickly came to the conclusion that I was mad for ever reading Bolt’s dribble in the first place.

    Fred Daly once wrote that the best election poster he ever saw all over his electorate of Grayndler (I think it was), in one of his many elections was of the liberal candidate’s which just read ‘Keep Grayndler(if that is what it was) clean! Change Daly.

  7. Just looked at the Habib poster.

    Jeez some people are thin skinned.

    Instead of attacking the poster how about she defends the claims.

  8. The Lib foot soldiers have been instructed to push faux outrage over that pamphlet to distract from the real issues, for example, the nasties being hidden in the audit report until state elections and the WA Senate election are out of the way.

    Would the pamphlet be racist if the candidate’s name was Smith or Abbott? What hypocritical bullshit from those who court the racist bogan vote and who plan to weaken protection from hate speech and discrimination.

    Let’s ignore the Coalition shills pushing this non-issue.

  9. Instead of attacking the poster how about she defends the claims.

    That absolutely right.

    Now we know we “CANT TRUST HABIB”

  10. Habib’s past is coming back to haunt her – for what she HAS done and not where she IS from! She hasn’t got much time left to get with it.

  11. mikehilliard

    David Marr chucking a few grenades around on the Drum.

    “The foundational rule (for media ownership reform) should be no more for Murdoch.”

    But the only reason for the reforms is to hand it all to Rupert.

    Brings to mind the gag someone posted from Twitter a few days back via WTTE:

    “Comparing Murdoch to Satan? Sure, he’s evil, but he’s not as evil as Murdoch”

  12. dee 1226

    I was not really across the issue and didnt have an opinion. But seeing as you asked… I am with Fran. Racist? probably not. Offensive attack ad? probably.

  13. Liberals still screwing with Mining Tax.

    Retweeted by Mathias Cormann
    LiberalsWA ‏@LiberalsWA 28m

    In WA today, Bill Shorten refused to support abolishing the anti-WA Mining Tax. Shorten and Labor are hurting WA jobs. #wapol #auspol

  14. The Liberals were running around like headless chooks telling everyone what a failure the MRRT was and how it was raising either no tax or very little tax.

    How can such a piddling amount, based on what the Liberals have claimed, be hurting any mining company?

    The planned increase in GST will hurt them more than the MRRT and Carbon Price combined.

    What a bunch of economic idiots these Libs are!!!

  15. [Poor James Packer I hope he was insured!]

    It won’t cost the silver spooner in mouth when born a cent. I’m sure Lend Lease the construction company had adequate insurance.

    It won’t cost him now anyway but it will when his casino is completed.

  16. Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 18m

    Foxtel’s Presto is launching tonight. Will you be paying (or will you try) $20 per month for Foxtel Movie channel streaming?

    Why bother without FTTP?

  17. AA

    Andrew elder came up with a interesting description of Cormann, talking about his “leaden rodomontades on fiscal rectitude.”

    I had to look up rodo thingies. It is boastful talk or behaviour.

    I am not sure cormann has much to boast about, but he sure as hell is leaden.

  18. Meanwhile in Perth. Feck heading to a full 1/3 of a year without rain. Deserts Will-B-Us.

    [
    IT’S been 100 days since Perth saw any significant rain.

    As Perth’s second-longest dry spell drags on, the city yesterday chalked up a century of days where 0.2mm have reached the Mt Lawley gauge.

    We’re closing in on the all-time record – 122 days, between November 2009 and March 2010]

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/perths-dry-spell-could-be-about-to-break-if-predicted-thunderstorms-reach-the-city/story-fnhocxo3-1226852533189

  19. Aussie @1273

    Economic idiots is an understatement.

    Literally every single economic platform that they campaign on is total rubbish.

    They are the young-earth creationists of the economic scene.

  20. Psephos
    Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 at 3:16 pm | PERMALINK
    If the Web is indeed 25 years old today, my website has existed for 60% of that time, since May 1999.

    –who said 25 years? in what form? certainly not for public access – i would say about 20 for latter

  21. Hey maybe had Kevin Andrews not played grubby RACIST politics with another Habib just before the 2007 election, there wouldn’t be a problem today?

  22. OK I ignored my own advice and read the poster on the ABC site. It ‘s a typical attack ad of the sort the Liberals do so well and which Labor needs to get good at until such time as we can have a more civilised polity. Of course you’re going to name your opponent, preferably in menacing red writing. So why all this crap about racism? Is it because the specifics of Ms. Habib’s record noted in the poster can’t be defended? I note that that pompous buffoon Gerge Brandis isn’t defending Ms. Habib’s record (oops was I just racist?). Maybe he doesn ‘t know. But. I thought he knew everything, or at least he could have looked it up in his library.

    P.S. judging by her picture, she’s quite an attractive woman. Some may say she had ‘s_x appeal’. Oh no, racism and sexism.

  23. I wonder what Carolyn Habib would think about Jackie Kelly’s flyer roaming around the streets of Lindsay before the 2007 election?

    HYPOCRITES!

    But yes, the flyer was a little racist and Labor shouldn’t or don’t have to do it in my opinion.

  24. As I recall, the web and the internet didn’t really enter mainstream consciousness until about 1995, although it existed in a rudimentary form since the 70’s for use by acedemics and the US military.

  25. [Not if Abbott/Brandis/Turnbull get’s their way.]

    Foxtel will become an ISP, offering free Foxtel for people who have their HFC cable connected, as long as they pay $150 a month for internet and phone.

    They couldn’t give a shit what data goes over their pipe.

  26. Neo-Nazis come to power…who would have thought it ????>?
    _______________
    \A writer in “Asia Times”(HK) noted the amazing historical fact that for the first time aince the 1940ies ,a European govt.in .The Ukraine”… now has neo-nazis and local fascists in power
    Not since the fall of Vichy in 1944 with the Liberation of Paris and the later end of Hitler in 1945 has such a event happened
    and they are quite unabashed about their views in Kiev…
    but is Bishop worried??

    I suspect she is just following orders from Washington

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-120314.html
    ..and the uS canvasses sanctioins,and gets a few pupp;ets(Julie Bishop “) to climb on boatd …but th eEuro govts need that Russian oil/gas…can Bishopwsup[ply that…perhaps send it to Europe by Qantas

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-120314.html

  27. zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 at 7:31 pm | PERMALINK
    Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 18m

    Foxtel’s Presto is launching tonight. Will you be paying (or will you try) $20 per month for Foxtel Movie channel streaming?

    Why bother without FTTP?

    You need a download speed of at least 3Mbps.

    I get a speed of about 4.5Mbps with a Telstra ADSL2+ connection so it’s doable, but the movies on offer I’m not sure about.

  28. Today’s Mumble on asylum seeker policy. It seems that slowly more and more people are starting to see common sense on the issue.

    [ Despite the often-quoted statistic that more than 90 per cent processed in Australia turn out bona fide, people close to the process report that many are gaming the system, arriving with rehearsed accounts that will tick the right bureaucratic boxes.

    Sometimes these claims are made by commentators who would say that, but often not.

    Media accounts, such as this widely-read New York Times Magazine report published last November, provide further anecdotal support that many are indeed “economic migrants”.

    The reported background of Iranian Reza Berati, who was horribly killed in Manus last month, was in line with this. You can’t blame a person for seizing a perceived opportunity to build a better life. ]
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/how_about_a_real_alternative/

    He also states the truth when he says that both the Liberals and the Greens see boats as crucial to locking in their voter support. Given this, I can’t see us having a hysteria-free debate about the whole refugee/asylum seeker issue any time soon.

    Which is unfortunate, as the system is being abused by economic migrants just looking to wing their way into developed countries rather than what it should be doing which is assisting those being persecuted to live free from persecution.

  29. @Ruawake/1289

    They can maybe will screw us over Trade Pacific Agreement.

    @Rex/1291

    Yes it’s doable, but, if you want to do anything else that requires downloading, not so much.

  30. EFA ‏@efa_oz 20s

    #Google schools @TurnbullMalcolm on unauthorised downloads. Ditch the punitive measures, give us access to content! http://ow.ly/uuR9j

    ““[W]e believe there is significant, credible evidence emerging that online piracy is primarily an availability and pricing problem,” he explained.”

  31. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 7m
    Ken Henry interview confirms the candy arse quality of so much policy discussion at the moment. Glib and unquestioned narrative so hurtful

    We have dud so-called ‘leaders’ controlled under a corporatocracy.

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