GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.
UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.
UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.
[That is a function of the software of the telco, not necessarily of the phones being operative.]
If I smash my smartphone with a hammer, do people calling me still hear it ring?
Diogenes@1347
Not so. The french airplane that went down in the Atlantic was not found for years. Wreckage was found in five days, but they had some idea where to look in that case.
If you believe this man is a feminist…
One of the two in the photo got ditched. How appropriate.
I think its far more likely that someone left their phone at home or the airport, rather than them landing in some uncharted, unknown, invisible location.
Jimmyhaz@1354
But there is apparently multiple instances of this occurring. So I think if true it rules out your explanation.
Psephos@1351
I know, normally it would tell you that it is switched off or out of range.
However I have dialled and had landline phones ‘ring’ when the phone dialled was totally non-operative.
The function of ‘ringing’ has nothing to do with the phone itself actually making a noise or buzzing or whatever, but everything to do with the software of the telco.
[The function of ‘ringing’ has nothing to do with the phone itself actually making a noise or buzzing or whatever, but everything to do with the software of the telco.]
Yes I gather that. But what does the telco software do if they phone has been destroyed? Does it still gave the caller a ringing sound. Or does it say “sorry that phone has been destroyed. Please try again later, have a nice day.”?
don@1356
I know, normally it would tell you that it is switched off or out of range.
However I have dialled and had landline phones ‘ring’ when the phone dialled was totally non-operative.
The function of ‘ringing’ has nothing to do with the phone itself actually making a noise or buzzing or whatever, but everything to do with the software of the telco.
What is your basis for saying this?
Surely if a phone cannot be located by any base station it will not appear to ring?
Don
I have no damn idea about the smart phones except what is being said. What you say makes sense and you wonder why authorities don’t advise them so.
[Earlier today relatives claimed they were able to call the cellphones of their missing loved ones
According to the Washington Post, family of some of the 239 people on board the vanished Boeing 777 said that they were getting ring tones and could see them active online through a Chinese social networking service called QQ.
One man said that the QQ account of his brother-in-law showed him as online, but frustratingly for those waiting desperately for any news, messages sent have gone unanswered and the calls have not been picked up.]
[The former counter-terrorism adviser to President Barack Obama said there had been ‘some claims of responsibility’ over the missing jet that had ‘not been confirmed or corroborated’.]
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/poll-roundup-national-polling-all-over.html
Poll Roundup: National Polling All Over The Place
I have Labor clinging to a fairly narrow lead on 51.2:48.8.
bemused@1358
I know, normally it would tell you that it is switched off or out of range.
However I have dialled and had landline phones ‘ring’ when the phone dialled was totally non-operative.
The function of ‘ringing’ has nothing to do with the phone itself actually making a noise or buzzing or whatever, but everything to do with the software of the telco.
What is your basis for saying this?
Surely if a phone cannot be located by any base station it will not appear to ring?
The basis is that it happened.
don
The NYT said some French wreckage was found the day after. It seems there has to be some floating debris.
Miranda devine’s latest was posted here earlier today. I am not the only one who thought it was sick
[Julian Burnside
Miranda Devine “Abbott’s words fell on the room of foresters like a chorus of angels signifying the dawning of the light” Time to throw up]
Well I’m not going to smash my phone to test this theory, so it will have to stay in the hypothetical tray for now.
Regarding flight 370, like the Malaysians, I do not know what has happened. The search may well have been thoroughly carried out. However yes, the communication from authorities has been inconsistent and chaotic. Some of it must be just plain wrong, which means people are saying things by guesswork.
[Couldn’t think of anything worse than knowing your plane is going down.]
If it broke up in mid air at high altitude, while travelling at 800+kph it would all be over in seconds. The impact would render the passengers unconscious or worse very fast.
I imagine that a majority of phones would be satellite or gps-enabled, shouldn’t it then be easy to determine their location?
This guy says the ringing phone is a furphy
[However, technology industry analyst and “E-Commerce Times” columnist, Jeff Kagan told CNN that no conclusions can be reached concerning the ringing phones.
When a cell phone rings, he told “The Situation Room,” it first connects with the network and attempts to locate the end-user’s phone.
“If it doesn’t find the phone after a few minutes, after a few rings, then typically, it disconnects and that’s what’s happening,” he said.
“So, they’re hearing ringing and they’re assuming it’s connecting to their loved ones, but it’s not. It’s the network sending a signal to the phone letting them know it’s looking for them.”]
[ Reports are emerging that some cellphones of passengers on the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 are ringing — but no one picks up. However eerie this seems, it may have more to do with how mobile phones and networks operate than any deeper mystery.
According to a China.org.cn report, 19 families signed a statement saying that dialing their loved ones’ phones leads to a ring, rather than going straight to voicemail, as one would expect of a phone in airplane mode or otherwise unable to be reached.
But it’s not that simple. When you hit the call button on some phones, a ringing tone begins immediately.
“However, that does not mean the phone you are calling is ringing yet,” wrote wireless analyst Jeff Kagan in an email to NBC News. “The network is searching for the phone. First based on where it last was, then it expands. Then if the network can’t find the phone, the call terminates.”
The search for the party on the receiving end may be nearly instantaneous, or take a few seconds — during which time the phone (depending on model, network and other variables) may or may not make a ringing noise to indicate to the caller that it is attempting to make the cell connection. So while it may ring four times for you, the person you’re calling may only hear it ring once — or not at all. ]
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/malaysia-airlines-passengers-phones-ringing-maybe-not-n49371
Diogenes@1362
May depend on how hard it hit the sea.
It seems the French plane hit pretty hard, but if a pilot regained control before hitting the sea they may have managed a less destructive crash landing that kept the plane more intact.
Mere speculation of course.
I could enjoy the mystery were it not for the 239 people on board and those they leave behind. 😥
Psephos@1364
You could just turn it off and remove the SIM. 😀
Dio
[The NYT said some French wreckage was found the day after. It seems there has to be some floating debris.]
This is where this crash is quite unusual. There are lots of light weight plastic bits in aircraft these days that would normally float. Unusual not to find something. Plus by now aircraft and ships from a half dozen countries are looking, not only Malaysia, including military surveillance with IR sensors etc.
don
That’s the same guy I found but on a different network! He’s getting around.
With mobile phones there are settings you can activate which then convey that setting to your Telco.
eg “Go to message bank if unanswered or switched off”.
I lost my phone, the battery went flat but calls still went to message bank. When found some weeks later and re-charged there were heaps of messages there.
The Telco doesn’t know whether it’s flat or damaged.
If no diverting settings are put into the phone the Telco will then say “switched off” or “out of range”.
There was no debris when Frank Valenich’s cessna disappeared over Bass Straight.
Dee@1374
Yes, but that is a know alien abduction. 😉
Dee
The article said they sometimes don’t find small aircraft but they have always found commercial planes of this size. Up until now.
Socrates@1371
But until now they have (apparently) been looking on the wrong side of the Malay Peninsula. Not surprising that they have found nothing yet, then, if that is the case.
[Add a Green candidate. The Laborite is a right-winger like Centre, thinks the Greens are worse than the Libs and puts the Greens “3”.]
😎
Re Habib
I am mystified as to the intent of that publication or whatever it may be.
I cannot read a single anything into it.
It seems pointless.
Who exactly sponsored it?
South Australia was and is ‘multi cultural’.
As is Labor. Unless we have a malign influence at work from within.
Wow… all those ribbons on the uniform of the Malaysian Air Force guy on Late Line.
I mustn’t have noticed all those wars Malaysia was involved in.
Don
I read that this morning, but this evening the Malaysians have contradicted that too, saying the report of it going west was incorrect. Yet they are searching in the west, which is very odd. As I said, at best at this stage Malaysian media communications are a complete mess.
Socrates@1381
On Late Line it was explained as them being unsure whether the unidentified aircraft heading west was MH370. So they are searching both areas.
Bemused
[Yes, but that is a know alien abduction]
Too cruel! 😆
Dee@1383
Well he radioed in about the lights approaching him for a close encounter. 😆
Well if the plane was bombed there would be debris floating all around.
It most likely appears that the plane has nosedived below the surface to the point where it has sunk to the bottom of the ocean.
Anyone want to take another flight soon?
So the phones are ‘ringing’, but that is from the software of the telco, not the phone itself, then the phone goes to voicemail, as though the person has ignored the call.
[ 1. How could there be reports from relatives that some of the passengers’ phones are still ringing?
If the phones are ringing, that could mean they are on land and near a mobile cell site. If that is the case, it seems bizarre nobody noticed the plane land or crash.
However, experts doubt the phones are ringing. If you call someone whose phone has no charge, it sounds as though the phone is ringing, before you go through to the voicemail.
‘The phones definitely won’t be working,’ says Professor William Webb, a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering.
‘They will be underwater, out of coverage and by this time out of battery.’
]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2578199/Military-tracked-missing-plane-100-miles-vanished-civilian-radar-sure-Malacca-Strait-Malaysian-source-reveals.html
The Cessna is a small, all metal, non pressurised aircraft. So no explosive decompression possible. It could easily hit the water in one piece and sink as one piece. Like all those old WWII fighters they find on dives.
A modern pressurised high speed airliner flying at high speed is very different. If it breaks up at high altitude it is all over very fast, wreckage scatters miles, in a million pieces, but the light plastic pieces might float. Conversely if it does not break up and is flown down in a controlled fashion, it would take several minutes from high altitude, and you would think the pilots would have issued a distress call. I have no explanation, it is just very odd.
I hope it is not another Ustica situation, which would explain the military being so jumpy, inconsistent and “look over there”.
This was the Ustica tragedy. Never fully explained, but an Alitalia DC9 went down off Sicily in 1991 for no obvious reason, but military jet fighters were in the are at the time performing maneuvers. Oops.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerolinee_Itavia_Flight_870#Missile_strike_during_training_exercise
There is a deeper issue here.
Invading aircraft to whatever nation will have their transponders turned off.
What seems apparent now is that Malaysia, and possibly Indonesia, have no way of knowing whether they are about to be attacked by aircraft, and have no way of knowing what aircraft there are in their vicinity unless the transponders are turned on.
Pearl Harbor all over again.
If nothing else, this will put the military of all nations on notice that their defence systems will need looking at. You would have to wonder what the planners have been doing up till now.
[It most likely appears that the plane has nosedived below the surface to the point where it has sunk to the bottom of the ocean.]
Modern jet airliners have landing speeds of 200 knots plus. At that speed, hitting the water means breaking up, not a nose dive. That guy who safely landed on the Hudson River was a genius. It has never been done before or since.
Bemused
Residents along the Great Ocean Road said they saw the lights of a small plane and a ball of green light travelling above the plane.
That guff aside, Frank was in constant radio contact so you wonder how he could completely vanish.
Magic Pudding, further to post 1378.
There is no way my vote is not going to count. The Greens must not get into government under any circumstances.
10am on the Monday morning after the Greens being elected (nightmare but bare with me), the market would open 400 points down. It would lose another 200 points that week.
It would then stabilise with slow steady falls – until…the Greens propose their first loon policy.
Mamma mia, head for the hills, the market will totally capitulate!
Dee@1391
I already told you. 😛
[Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 at 10:34 pm | PERMALINK
Dee
The article said they sometimes don’t find small aircraft but they have always found commercial planes of this size. Up until now.]
Not quite true. Adam Air Flight 574 (Boeing 737 – commercial) disappeared from radar on January 1, 2007.
First location of wreckage was not until January 11-13, 2007.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Air_Flight_574
MP
[ The only circumstance in which your vote would really assist one or the other of your ethically challenged candidates to win would be where their votes were otherwise equal, which is such a remote possibility that you could in good faith dismiss it.]
I don’t agree. My effective vote would be to assist or at worst to underpin an ALP candidate against a Liberal. While nobody could conclude that numbering the ALP at, for example 9 and the Liberal at 10 meant that I regarded the ALP candidate as being of equal merit with my primary, they could conclude that I preferred the ALP to win if the only alternative were a Liberal. Yet that is not what I currently believe. Neither is currently supportable.
It’s true that we have a secret ballot, but at least for me, I cannot do in private what I would not in principle avow to in public. One is not entitled to misrepresent one’s politics, IMO. and “pleading the fifth” is not for those of us who take politics seriously.
More broadly, I have no wish to be part of the current conservative/reactionary consensus, and endorsing the ALP paradigm puts me there. I also see no good warrant for compelling people to vote for candidates they don’t support on pain of forfeiting their vote.
One last thing. The voting system we have is sometimes called IRV — instant run-off voting. In some elections, a number of candidates run for office in the first stage of a ballot. People choose their favoured candidate. If one candidate gets 50% + 1 they are declared the winner. If they don’t, then a second round is held a couple of weeks later in which the two most popular candidates re-contest the ballot. The winner is then determined.
Our system collapses this process, ensuring that the run-off is conducted in one ballot, which is more time- and cost-efficient. Yet if we did it the other way, it’s clear that in almost all electorates that went to a run-off the ALP would face someone from the coalition. Quite clearly, I wouldn’t be voting in that election, so the IRV doesn’t really change the substantive ethical question.
Socrates
I think all they have found is a door so far? But I confess also, I’m not up to date on the incident.
[ Why was no distress signal sent?
‘If you have some form of emergency, then the first thing the pilot does is to change the transponder code,’ says Mr Durie. ‘If you change your code to 7500, that means you have been hijacked.
‘Back at Air Traffic Control, a big red box appears around your flight, and people take notice very quickly.’
In the event of a serious malfunction, the code changes to 7600, and in a Mayday situation, to 7700.
Changing the code is as quick as entering your PIN on a cash machine.
‘The fact that the transponder code didn’t change suggests to me that whatever happened, happened really quickly,’ says Mr Durie. ‘This might mean an explosion.’
]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2578199/Military-tracked-missing-plane-100-miles-vanished-civilian-radar-sure-Malacca-Strait-Malaysian-source-reveals.html
Don
I am no expert on radar, but my understanding is that all ground based radar suffers from a larger scale version of the horizon limits of visibility problem. So none of them can track an aircraft more than say 150km away, even at high altitude. Apparently the military airborne surveillance (AWACS) aircraft, mounting a big radar flying at high altitude, have much longer range. So nobody has good detection capability against aircraft approaching beyond 150km away, unless they have military surveillance aircraft airborne.
Centre
Earlier reports of a door being sighted from the air have been dismissed. When the ship got there later nothing was visible.
Bet Hollywoods working on it already!