Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

After the last result gave Labor its biggest lead of any poll since the election of the Abbott government, the latest fortnightly Newspoll has come in closer to trend.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.

UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,524 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 22 of 31
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  3. DTT,

    I guess we don’t have the disturbingly detailed research into demographics and voting intention they have in the US, so we can’t say for certain whether “Ciggy-butt brain” style characters largely vote one way or the other, or indeed vote much (either through turnout or formality) at all. If the 2013 election is anything to go by, your experience could be explained by a high point in antipathy to the ALP and Greens, which failed to correspond to a proportional jump in LNP popularity, hence some votes came back via preferences, others weren’t cast at all.

    My own interpretation of it is that the people you describe will be highly influenced by the nature of the electorate. E.g. if it’s culturally conservative, they would be more likely to vote conservative (such as rural electorates), if it’s a culturally working class electorate, then it they will be more likely to vote Labor, such as outer suburban electorates like Calwell and McEwen. However, it’s not a perfect rule, as some towns within rural conservative electorates vote Labor fairly consistantly, such as Moe, Portland and Whyalla

  4. Bh

    I can think of quite a few people in all walks of life who are readily excused their indiscretions on account of their talents. Sportsmen in particular come to mind.
    It should be no surprise that the Tories would do it for Buswell, who is by most accounts smarter than the average WA MP.
    Just as the fans hoped for the redemption of Ben cousins, not very deep down inside the Tories will be hoping Buswell can find a way back.

  5. BB at 1019:
    [What overture?]
    “The Wilkie Tell Overture” perhaps?

    I do hope the questions in the interview start:

    1. Can you count to 76?
    2. If yes, name the 76 who would have voted for your anti-gambling legislation?
    3. If your answer to 2 is you cannot name them, in what way was Gillard’s refusal to submit your legislation to Parliament in any way a breach of trust with you as you claim? Particularly remembering that Gillard subjected her own legislation to the same fate, namely, that if it did not have the support of a Parliamentary majority she would not submit it to Parliament to go through the jejune exercise of having it rejected.
    4. Why shouldn’t the Australian electorate regard you as one of the biggest political tossers for biting the only hand that would feed, at all, your single-issue interest?

  7. I just had a look at Island magazine’s site. The Wilkie article looks to be fairly wide ranging, discussing among other things the “hung” parliament. Latika’s already told us what the media focus will be on.

  11. why did Gillard float having him as a Labor MP?

    I’m guessing that she wanted Wilkie’s support on something and was testing to see if there was a deal to be done. With the makeup of the last parliament every vote had to be won somehow…

  12. Dio,

    There could be far worse people in Caucus. If he did become a Labor MP he could quote Hughes in saying he’d been in every party apart from the Nationals “I had to draw the line somewhere” 😛

  13. [If Wilkie is so bad, why did Gillard float having him as a Labor MP?
    ]

    For the same reason as slipper was made speaker – she was desperate. In hindsight probably too desperate. While she probably did the right thing by the country and her immediate supporters failing to have formed a government might have been better middle term for labor.

  17. Seriously, what is going on?

    [Most bizarre. MALAYSIA AIR FORCE CHIEF DENIES SAYING THAT MISSING JET WAS LAST DETECTED OVER STRAIT OF MALACCA]

  20. [Just as the fans hoped for the redemption of Ben cousins, not very deep down inside the Tories will be hoping Buswell can find a way back.]

    ross mcg

    It seems that Buswell will follow the Cousins path no matter what. Deeper problems can’t be solved by staying a pollie. The pressure is great and Buswell doesn’t seem to have control of his inner ‘idiot’.

    Cousins’ path was tragic for one who seemed, outwardly, to have it all.

  21. [ and if Joel Fitzgibbon can be an ALP MP I’d say the bar is set pretty low already.]

    Jackol Don’t get psyclaw and me started on that one 🙁

  24. Bugler

    yes, I remember when I read that wondering how many MPs would even suggest doing a series of interviews for an important article away from their electorate.

    She was always a city girl in a country town. Part of her trouble stemmed from her assumptions about what country people were like and her pandering to that.

  28. DN

    [You are seriously tying yourself in logical knots, here.]

    On the contrary, I’m being consistent. As long as we have CPV, I can’t be party to voting save perhaps in a case where I were very confident of winning, meaning that those voting for me could be sure that they weren’t helping to elect someone opposed to the principles for which I’d stood.

    To do so in circumstances where I thought I’d lose would serve to encourage people with similar ideas to vote formally in circumstances where they shouldn’t. In marketing terms that is called ‘bait and switch’ and is seen as a scam. Of course, I’d have made myself a party to the political blackmail of people I respected.

    I suppose I might stand and declare openly that nobody should allocate preferences to either the ALP or the LNP, advocating the Langer Method but IIRC this is in breach of the Electoral Act. I’m not sure I wouldn’t be DQ’d. That might get around the dilemma.

  30. mari

    [Nice to be told?]

    Last time there was a referendum on this (the question rigged by Little Johney) was 15 years ago.

    A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then.

  31. mari

    Kiwi tories FTTH yep, climate change yep , Carbon price yep, SSM yep , Time to look at flag yep.
    Key favors the silver fern on black as the flag. Like this.

  32. Fran @ 1078, I didn’t mean to imply it was irrational or inconsistent. I think it’s perfectly rational and consistent (with your premise) but also twisted ;).

  33. Of course, I think your premise is wrong in the first place, which explains (to me) why you end up where you do, in such a strange place.

  34. Sorry, did she float the idea of Wilkie as a Labor MP or merely as an independent Labor wouldn’t oppose?

    They’re quite different things.

    Labor has often ‘run dead’ against an independent candidate (one of my friends was offered petrol money by the candidate when he stood against an indie, because the guy reckoned my friend was doing a better job for him than he was for Labor…) but as a matter of principle, we always stand a candidate.

  35. Zoom –
    Wilkie is saying both possibilities were thrown out there.

    Independent MP Andrew Wilkie says former prime minister Julia Gillard tried to recruit him to the Labor Party and have him run as an ALP candidate in the last election.

    Mr Wilkie says Ms Gillard made the advance during one of their regular meetings in 2011, telling the Member for Denison he needed to think about his future.

    Mr Wilkie has told ABC News 24’s Capital Hill program Ms Gillard also raised the prospect of the Labor Party not running a candidate against him in Denison at all.

    He says he found the offer “remarkable” and “surprising” but not “improper”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-12/wilkie-says-gillard-tried-to-recruit-him-to-labor/5314976

    I don’t see what the big deal is either way – knowing Wilkie’s past and public persona I think it was always a long shot that Gillard could have gotten any bargaining power out of the offer but given the situation of the last parliament she was probably obliged to try out even the long shots in the hope some would pay off.

    Denison, if Wilkie weren’t occupying it, would clearly be an ALP seat, so it’s not like it would be a “betrayal of the electorate” or whatever.

    I’m sure the Nats tried at various times to woo Oakeshott and Windsor back into the fold, and no one would have faulted them for trying, surely?

  37. Jackol

    thanks for that. Can’t see the problem. If either major was able to get Cathy McGowan to join them, they would in a heartbeat.

  38. 1081
    poroti

    Then there’s the more abstract and widely-meaningful koru, which is derived from the fern….

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koru

    [The koru (Māori for “loop”) is a spiral shape based on the shape of a new unfurling silver fern frond and symbolizing new life, growth, strength and peace. It is an integral symbol in Māori art, carving and tattoos. The circular shape of the koru helps to convey the idea of perpetual movement while the inner coil suggests a return to the point of origin.

    Koru is the integral central motif of symbolic, seemingly-abstract kowhaiwhai designs, traditionally used to decorate Maori wharenui (meeting houses). There are numerous semi-formal designs, representing different features of the natural world.

    Koru can also refer to bone carvings. Those generally take the shape of the uncurling fern plant. When bone is worn on the skin, it changes colour as oil is absorbed. The Māori took this to symbolise that the spirit of the person was inhabiting the pendant. When someone gives a pendant to someone else, it is the custom that they wear it for a time so that part of their spirit is given as well.]

  39. Devine is in that camp of right wing, self righteous, Catholics who think they hold the key to all things redemptive and right. She sits snugly there with Pell and Abbott. They are never wrong; or if they are, they can go to confession and all will be right.

    I see Pell took the cowards way this week in the Commission – blaming the lawyers for the Church’s despicable handling of that fellow Ellis.

  43. Jackol @1085
    [Denison, if Wilkie weren’t occupying it, would clearly be an ALP seat, so it’s not like it would be a “betrayal of the electorate” or whatever.]
    If Wilkie were not there, there is a distinct chance that Denison would be a Green seat. Greens currently lead Labor in Denison in State election polling. Admittedly that doesn’t necessarily carry across to Federal elections, but Wilkie’s election shows that the voters were looking for an alternative to the major parties. Of course Labor would have the option of ensuring a Liberal victory by giving the Libs their preferences. If Wilkie joined the Labor Party some of his voters would undoubtedly feel betrayed, because he attracted votes from the “small l liberals” as an Independent.

  44. Lynchpin @1089

    Weasel words from Pell….
    “Whatever position was taken by the lawyers during the litigation, or by lawyers or individuals within the archdiocese following the litigation, my own view is that the church in Australia should be able to be sued in cases of this kind,” wrote Pell.

    Did he or didn’t he participate in the legal abuse of Ellis?

  45. Bernie Fraser, the chair of the independent climate change authority, which the Abbott government intends to abolish, will be speaking on climate change at the National Press Club this Thursday, 13/4.

    Details: http://www.npc.org.au/speakers/bernie-fraser.html

    He has been interviewed by a journalist at the Guardian Australia ahead of his NPC speech.

    During the interview he talks about ‘good guys’ and ‘bad guys’ http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/mar/12/climate-change-body-chief-bad-guys-won-when-the-good-guys-lay-down?CMP=ema_632

  47. RE THE AWFUL SOPHIE_________Zoomster __
    _________
    I had a friend active in a local group in the Nth East seeking federal aid for a project,and the
    y had a hard time even getting an interview with Mirrabella

    Then when that was arranged,they got a message on the day saying other pressing matters had come to hand and the interview was off
    My friend gave up and went out joined the campaign against Sophie and rejoiced at her fall

  50. MagicPudding –

    If Wilkie were not there, there is a distinct chance that Denison would be a Green seat.

    There may be a chance given the ALP’s malaise in Tassie at the moment, but not a great chance in my opinion, and I think it would reflect the depths of the ALP at this point in time rather than any particular structural change in the demographics and long term voting intent of the good folk of Denison. I could be wrong of course.

    If Wilkie joined the Labor Party some of his voters would undoubtedly feel betrayed, because he attracted votes from the “small l liberals” as an Independent.

    Yeah, this is almost entirely irrelevant to my point. Of course there are votes to be won and lost by various positioning, and Wilkie obviously either didn’t think he could fit in the ALP (which he probably couldn’t) or didn’t think there was any advantage in it for him (which there probably wasn’t) or was sticking by his independent “principles” whatever they are.

    My point was that the offer was made as a long shot, but that it wasn’t an entirely alien, inconceivable or ridiculous idea given the historical voting patterns of Denison, but the offer clearly didn’t match up with Wilkie’s ideas about what being in parliament was about, unsurprisingly.

    So in the irrelevant hypothetical that he had chosen to join the ALP, the “small l liberals” would have gone back to voting for the Libs … and that would have made almost no difference to the chances of Wilkie being elected – he also would have picked up some ALP voters who would otherwise have refused to vote for or preference him.

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